Bears Bunker - Official thread

[Odrec]

This place is scary

[pera]

Maybe we are being too hasty...

[pera]

Need to activate the bunker. I think this growth rate is not at all sustainable.

A week after correction and we just made a new ATH 3 hours ago? Bad time to be a bear, man.

what correction? 

~ 900 to 450
 

you can't call that a "correction": it's just one stick in an year chart

[MAbtc]

Maybe we are being too hasty...

Nothing to justify top of this channel. Not even a second point.

[pera]

you are right, I was just comparing it to the last crash, but there is no reason for doing that...

imo a correction should be between 200 and 400, or even 500 if we go a bit further

[davider]

A correction will happen for sure but I'm back fully in BTC, the up pressure is too high.
By looking my past trading performance expect a crash any minutes from now. 

[Odalv]

I feel, it is going $1k+ forever. :-) ( time scale 1-2 weeks )

[pera]

Tick Tock Motherfucker

[YoYa]

It's just a matter of time....

[porcupine87]

I sold my bitcoin already yesterday for 400 USD apiece.

Not sure if happy or sad right now. I do think that the price is going to crash very soon, but I should have waited a little longer, in hindsight.

I think he is sure now^^

[bitleif]

I tried being a bear, looked like it was going to tank at ~$775. That didn't go so well.

Now I'm all in again, but lost back the (small) profit I made on the previous dip to $450 on this trade. I think it's time to retire my 6 mo long career as a daytrader and just go B&H from now on.

[Tzupy]

It seems the market has peaked, let's see how deep the correction will be.

[wobber]

It seems the market has peaked, let's see how deep the correction will be.

700s I'd say.

[Okurkabinladin]

It seems the market has peaked, let's see how deep the correction will be.

Couple of hours after rally has restarted?   Come on, Tzupy, you are way smarter, than that. It was to be expected there is some last ditch resistance before psychological barrier of 1000 breaks. By the way, volume of this "correction" is incredibly low.

[MAbtc]

It seems the market has peaked, let's see how deep the correction will be.

Not gonna happen. Not right now.

[Tzupy]

It seems the market has peaked, let's see how deep the correction will be.

Couple of hours after rally has restarted?   Come on, Tzupy, you are way smarter, than that. It was to be expected there is some last ditch resistance before psychological barrier of 1000 breaks. By the way, volume of this "correction" is incredibly low.

If this is the first sub-sub-wave in a type 5 wave, there is always a (relatively small) correction at it's end.
But if this is the peak of wave B, then it's going to be a large one.

[MoreFun]

It seems the market has peaked, let's see how deep the correction will be.

Couple of hours after rally has restarted?   Come on, Tzupy, you are way smarter, than that. It was to be expected there is some last ditch resistance before psychological barrier of 1000 breaks. By the way, volume of this "correction" is incredibly low.

If this is the first sub-sub-wave in a type 5 wave, there is always a (relatively small) correction at it's end.
But if this is the peak of wave B, then it's going to be a large one.

Tzupy, just being curious. Does your "way of guessing" work also on the profit side or only on the smart side?

[oda.krell]

Maybe we are being too hasty...

Nothing to justify top of this channel. Not even a second point.

It's because this entire way of thinking of "the one trend" is flawed from the beginning.

Depending on your bias you use the entire data when you draw the line or, mathematically slightly more sophisticated I guess, use linear regression, or you drop some of the peaks as "outliers", in which case you get a slightly flatter line, but in the end all of that reasoning is based on the idea that one growth function governs all the time from 2011 to now.

That's almost certainly a flawed conclusion.

If you're willing to accept a huge imprecision (maybe you care only about the order of magnitude), then it's an okay approach I guess. But if you happen to be interest in the actual price, I don't see much value drawing any line between data from 2011 and 2013.

[wachtwoord]

Maybe we are being too hasty...

Nothing to justify top of this channel. Not even a second point.

It's because this entire way of thinking of "the one trend" is flawed from the beginning.

Depending on your bias you use the entire data when you draw the line or, mathematically slightly more sophisticated I guess, use linear regression, or you drop some of the peaks as "outliers", in which case you get a slightly flatter line, but in the end all of that reasoning is based on the idea that one growth function governs all the time from 2011 to now.

That's almost certainly a flawed conclusion.

If you're willing to accept a huge imprecision (maybe you care only about the order of magnitude), then it's an okay approach I guess. But if you happen to be interest in the actual price, I don't see much value drawing any line between data from 2011 and 2013.

If the growth on the log chart crudely matches a linear function, one can claim exponential growth.

[pera]

well actually i thought that the exponential growing was in fact related with the difficult of the network 

anyways, if miners are cashing out now they are making really nice profits (and I believe they were waiting for that..)