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Author Topic: bubble imminent  (Read 14869 times)
ShadowOfHarbringer
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February 14, 2011, 12:41:18 PM
 #21

I disagee.  Up, up, and away!

yeah, totally...



We have been slashdotted twice & podcasted lately, so the user base may have grown 200% or something in the last 2 months, which can explain that.
This chart should look like that if the userbase grows many times faster than new coins are digged out from the ground, which is happening with high probability.

Anyway, even if this is a bubble, then that's even better. I can't wait to buy new bitcoins cheap - I'm investing in the long term Wink

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genjix
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February 17, 2011, 08:28:58 AM
 #22

if that grows any steeper then the value of bitcoin will loop back on itself.

which is good because we'll go back in time so i can buy loads of bitcoins before it increases in value and repeat the process = infinite money. genjix: 1 market: 0
ribuck
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February 17, 2011, 10:16:17 AM
 #23

if that grows any steeper then the value of bitcoin will loop back on itself.

The chart is deceptive. It really should be using a logarithmic vertical scale.

If you invest $100 by buying bitcoins, a rise from $0.07 to $0.14 is just as profitable for you as a rise from $0.70 to $1.40, but it doesn't look that way on a chart with a linear vertical scale.
barbarousrelic
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February 17, 2011, 12:27:39 PM
 #24

mtgox has low volume- everybody buying up
How does "low volume" lead to the conclusion "everybody is buying" ?   The observation "low volume" should lead us to conclude that very few people are buying.

Do not waste your time debating whether Bitcoin can work. It does work.

"Early adopters will profit" is not a sufficient condition to classify something as a pyramid or Ponzi scheme. If it was, Apple and Microsoft stock are Ponzi schemes.

There is no such thing as "market manipulation." There is only buying and selling.
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February 17, 2011, 01:52:29 PM
 #25

because it means people are hoarding.
ShadowOfHarbringer
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February 17, 2011, 01:59:11 PM
 #26

because it means people are hoarding.

If they will be hoarding for a long time then the effect will be exactly the same as if there were less bitcoins on the market (less goods -> prices rise).

However, now if a major player (or mass of minor players) comes to the market wanting to buy a large amount of Bitcoins, the price would totally skyrocket (5x-10x or more).

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February 17, 2011, 02:14:30 PM
 #27

because it means people are hoarding.

That just means they're hoarding. It does not mean everyone is buying, and it doesn't say anything about what they're waiting for before they're willing to sell. Seems to me like it's kind of a standoff now - no-one's willing to sell below 1 USD, but few people are willing to buy at that level either, so everyone's waiting to see who blinks first. Maybe the volume being sold now is a decent reflection of the general volume of trade done with BTC without speculation driving the exchange trading.

My own gut feeling is that absent new, big buys pushing the price up again, speculators will soon start flinching and selling, bringing the exchange rate down.

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February 17, 2011, 03:18:33 PM
 #28

There are many reasons for the growing price of the bitcoin.

1) More users
2) More goods and services offered
3) A lot of people hoarding them.
4) Ben Bernanke

Many people says precious metals prices aren't going to the moon after QE2 because JP Morgan is manipulating the market.
If that's true, maybe bitcoin price is a better way to watch the depreciation of the dollar than gold price.

I don't know how the dark pools work, but it seems to me that someone with a lot of bitcoins is selling them at 1.05 and that's why the bitcoin price doesn't keep on rising. Let's hope Blythe Masters didn't hear about Bitcoin and is suppressing its price to hide Bernake's sins just as she's doing with silver.

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February 17, 2011, 06:23:30 PM
 #29

The dark pool point is interesting, would those trades show up in trade volume on MTGOX? If not, then it's conceivable the recent large buys that led to reaching parity are now being converted back into USD at some profit. Haven't looked at the amounts bought then to see whether that makes sense.

edit:
Did a small test buy, there does seem to be someone selling at 1.05019 in the dark pool.

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FreeMoney
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February 17, 2011, 06:33:38 PM
 #30

The dark pool point is interesting, would those trades show up in trade volume on MTGOX? If not, then it's conceivable the recent large buys that led to reaching parity are now being converted back into USD at some profit. Haven't looked at the amounts bought then to see whether that makes sense.

edit:
Did a small test buy, there does seem to be someone selling at 1.05019 in the dark pool.

Yes, dark pools show up in volume after the fact. But there are surely plenty of trades happening off of any books, not to mention all the trades for goods.

Mullvad has dropped prices again, now 6BTC/mo. Does anyone know what their very first bitcoin price was? I think I remember 60BTC, but I'm not sure.

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TheHoboHarvester
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February 17, 2011, 07:08:49 PM
 #31

The economy seems to have held pretty steady week compared to the rapid increase two weeks ago.

Darkpools could certainly be a factor:


Did a small test buy, there does seem to be someone selling at 1.05019 in the dark pool.

The price on Mt.Gox rose up to 1.08 yesterday, so there is still some volume moving around that pool, but it does explain some trends.
barbarousrelic
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February 17, 2011, 07:12:01 PM
 #32

because it means people are hoarding.
Holding and buying are two entirely different things.

Do not waste your time debating whether Bitcoin can work. It does work.

"Early adopters will profit" is not a sufficient condition to classify something as a pyramid or Ponzi scheme. If it was, Apple and Microsoft stock are Ponzi schemes.

There is no such thing as "market manipulation." There is only buying and selling.
Enky1974
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February 17, 2011, 07:23:36 PM
 #33

A bubble is imminent or the bursting of the current bubble is imminent?  I think a lot of people have good faith in Bitcoin, and there are a lot of new users (buyers) pouring into the system.  I had some sell orders in around USD 1, but I withdrew them.  I don't even like the idea of holding dirty, government money any more. 
I did the same, i withdrew orders from 1.30, think about it, in second life the economy reached a total amount of 28 million usd dollars, compared to btc (there are 5 million bitcoins right now) it's 6$ per btc and Second Life is for losers....
btc can go much higher then 6$/1btc, it's reasonable to look for 25-30$ for 1 btc within 2-3 years from now.

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February 17, 2011, 09:11:07 PM
 #34

The dark pool point is interesting, would those trades show up in trade volume on MTGOX? If not, then it's conceivable the recent large buys that led to reaching parity are now being converted back into USD at some profit. Haven't looked at the amounts bought then to see whether that makes sense.

edit:
Did a small test buy, there does seem to be someone selling at 1.05019 in the dark pool.



It will be interesting to see how big this dark sell order at 1.0519 is (we will only know once it is cleared).
Since Feb 15, it looks as if approximately 6000 BTC have been sold for this 1.0519 price.



And to reiterate my opinion based on the technical analysis.
THERE IS NO BUBBLE IMMINENT.

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jimbobway
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February 17, 2011, 09:50:38 PM
 #35

if that grows any steeper then the value of bitcoin will loop back on itself.

The chart is deceptive. It really should be using a logarithmic vertical scale.

If you invest $100 by buying bitcoins, a rise from $0.07 to $0.14 is just as profitable for you as a rise from $0.70 to $1.40, but it doesn't look that way on a chart with a linear vertical scale.

But if you bought at $.07 and it goes up to $1.4 then the chart is correct.  That's a 20X return!!!  That's more than a 4 Bagger!

(If it doubles once it's a one bagger.  Twice is a two bagger, etc.)

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barbarousrelic
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February 17, 2011, 10:08:30 PM
 #36

What is the intended purpose of the dark pool on Mt. Gox? Is it just a perk for people with lots of money?

Do not waste your time debating whether Bitcoin can work. It does work.

"Early adopters will profit" is not a sufficient condition to classify something as a pyramid or Ponzi scheme. If it was, Apple and Microsoft stock are Ponzi schemes.

There is no such thing as "market manipulation." There is only buying and selling.
genjix
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February 19, 2011, 05:12:36 AM
 #37

And to reiterate my opinion based on the technical analysis.
THERE IS NO BUBBLE IMMINENT.

Then how come the price of BTC has gone from 1$ = 0.95 BTC to $1 = 1.06 BTC overnight? The bid price on mtgox is now 0.91 ($1 = 1.1 BTC)

Last 48 hours,


Price is starting to swing now that the effect of the dark pool's coverup is weakening.
kiba
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February 19, 2011, 06:36:21 AM
 #38


Then how come the price of BTC has gone from 1$ = 0.95 BTC to $1 = 1.06 BTC overnight? The bid price on mtgox is now 0.91 ($1 = 1.1 BTC)

Price is starting to swing now that the effect of the dark pool's coverup is weakening.

Everytime the currency market experience a deep plunge, people goes panickly:

"IT MUST BE A BUUBBBBBBBBBLE! WAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAI!"  

Roll Eyes Roll Eyes Roll Eyes Roll Eyes Roll Eyes Roll Eyes

What do you expect? Price is going to keep going up and up? It's going to correct sooner or later.

For the love of Eris, we experienced the greatest height of bitcoin popularity so far. And we're going to make an all time high bitcoin posting record, made membership record, and made all-time high downloads. We got slashdotted again, and a popular radio show sent us a gigantic amount of traffic!

It's going to takes a few weeks for new services and goods to pop up eventually.

rebuilder
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February 19, 2011, 10:48:24 AM
 #39

The price went down because one or two people decided to sell relatively large amounts of bitcoin. Just like it previously went up because one or two people decided to buy large amounts. It seems anyone with about 10,000 USD or even less to throw at it can get people really riled up in this market.

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February 19, 2011, 12:25:46 PM
 #40

In the bitcoin world, right now $10,000 is quite a lot. So if this is the case, that is just a few players with 10k are buying, selling then the reaason for the large swings is that the market is relatively small.

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