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Author Topic: bubble imminent  (Read 14886 times)
rebuilder
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February 19, 2011, 12:33:03 PM
 #41

In the bitcoin world, right now $10,000 is quite a lot. So if this is the case, that is just a few players with 10k are buying, selling then the reaason for the large swings is that the market is relatively small.

I agree. It also makes me wonder whether this is a possible attack vector against the market at this stage. A relatively small sum of money can be used to introduce significant instability into the market. Probably not very efficient though, I guess over time speculators would catch on and start to anticipate the up- and downspikes. Also it remains to be seen what the rates settle at after the last drop. I'm actually a little surprised that the effective drop was only 10% or so.

Currently, there's a little under 2000 BTC being sold at or below 1USD/btc.

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February 19, 2011, 03:50:57 PM
 #42

In the bitcoin world, right now $10,000 is quite a lot. So if this is the case, that is just a few players with 10k are buying, selling then the reaason for the large swings is that the market is relatively small.

I agree. It also makes me wonder whether this is a possible attack vector against the market at this stage. A relatively small sum of money can be used to introduce significant instability into the market. Probably not very efficient though, I guess over time speculators would catch on and start to anticipate the up- and downspikes.

Indeed.

As long as there will be influx of new people/services/currencies for trading, there is no chance of such strategy to ever work.
The price will be instable, but still rising, which is the whole point. Everybody wants tomorrow's bread to be cheaper that today's bread - this is the reason Bitcoin was created in first place - to avoid government thievery by inflation.

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February 20, 2011, 06:42:13 AM
 #43

Quote
The price will be instable, but still rising, which is the whole point. Everybody wants tomorrow's bread to be cheaper that today's bread - this is the reason Bitcoin was created in first place - to avoid government thievery by inflation.

This is misleading, in the current expansionary phase, the bitcoin money supply is exploding by any traditional monetary measures.
The year on year percentage expansions in the first few years will be 50%, 33%, 25%, 11%.
https://en.bitcoin.it/wiki/Controlled_inflation

After 6 years the monetary expansion of BTC will still be 10% and only after 13 years will it drop below 3%. A hard money gold standard, where monetary expansion is the amount of gold being mined and added to the above ground reserves, has an expansion rate of about 2.5% (amazingly this has held true thoughout centuries). Bitcoin monetary expansion will not drop below gold expansion until 13 years has passed from the production of the genesis block.

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February 20, 2011, 09:39:02 AM
 #44

This is misleading, in the current expansionary phase, the bitcoin money supply is exploding by any traditional monetary measures.
The year on year percentage expansions in the first few years will be 50%, 33%, 25%, 11%.

An expansionary phase is inevitable with the bootstrapping of any new currency. There's no other way to do it.

A fairly safe assumption is that the growth in the number of users will exceed the monetary inflation during the early "bootstrapping" years. There is controlled and fairly predictable monetary inflation, but probably not price inflation.
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February 20, 2011, 09:36:22 PM
 #45

2 days and bitcoin has gone from 0.95 BTC / $ to 1.16 BTC / $ Grin
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February 21, 2011, 09:19:42 AM
 #46

LOL I was right! SUCK IT!


rebuilder
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February 21, 2011, 09:34:39 AM
 #47

LOL I was right! SUCK IT!

So did you sell? Maybe you were the one who triggered the drop...

It might be interesting to collect predictions by different people and, a year later, see how they line up with what actually happened. I (OK, my ass) predict little long-term success in predicting the behaviour of the market to any reasonable accuracy.

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February 21, 2011, 10:57:01 AM
 #48

LOL I was right! SUCK IT!

1. What, you call this (drop drom 1.05 to 0 .82) a "bubble" ? Well, if that is a bubble, then i want all bubbles to be like this.
2. Usually after fast rise there is a correction. It's starting to rise again, and this time the rise will be more permanent.

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February 21, 2011, 08:30:57 PM
 #49

1. What, you call this (drop drom 1.05 to 0 .82) a "bubble" ? Well, if that is a bubble, then i want all bubbles to be like this.
2. Usually after fast rise there is a correction. It's starting to rise again, and this time the rise will be more permanent.

It appears that we forgot the last bubble.

genjix
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February 21, 2011, 08:59:38 PM
 #50

huh? by bubble I do not mean a crash to 0... Just bitcoin losing 1/4 - 1/2 of it's parity value.
ShadowOfHarbringer
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February 21, 2011, 09:24:34 PM
 #51

huh? by bubble I do not mean a crash to 0... Just bitcoin losing 1/4 - 1/2 of it's parity value.

Well, this "bubble" dropped bitcoin by about ~22%, so not a big deal.
IMHO bubbles like this will always happen, however they should get smaller as the BTC economy grows.

I like this very much anyway, because i was just planning to buy more BTC and this is the perfect opportunity.

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February 22, 2011, 07:41:19 AM
 #52



Pop?

Something's up on bitcoin central.
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February 22, 2011, 07:45:00 AM
 #53

I think it would be good for people trading bitcoins to study or at least inform themselves about how financial markets work before starting it or even wildly speculate about what is happening.

For example, what is happening now is a normal correction that happens all the time in markets.
standard corrections retrace between 38% and 62% of the recent advance.

This means that retracements of 1.1-0.5=0.6 * 0.38 = 0.23 or 0.38 $
results in either 0.87 $ (already exceeded) or 0.72 $.

A larger retracement from the 0.17 bottom can lead to a correction down to 0.5

all this is completely normal in financial markets and has nothing to do with bubbles or bubblegums ;-)

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Raulo
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February 22, 2011, 07:51:47 AM
 #54

all this is completely normal in financial markets and has nothing to do with bubbles or bubblegums ;-)

Yeah, because as we all know bitcoins can only go up. Buy now or be priced out forever. The bitcoin supply  is finite and the demand is infinite. Just like houses. You know, they are making no land anymore. 

There are never any bubbles in the markets and everyone will be rich. You just need to buy.

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February 22, 2011, 07:52:36 AM
 #55

Something weird at bitcoin-central for sure.

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February 22, 2011, 07:53:01 AM
 #56



Pop?

Something's up on bitcoin central.

At what volume is this exactly ?
The charts at Bitcoin-central are not very precise.

OK, i found better ones:
http://bitcoincharts.com/markets/

Volume = ~1121

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February 22, 2011, 07:58:44 AM
 #57

all this is completely normal in financial markets and has nothing to do with bubbles or bubblegums ;-)

Yeah, because as we all know bitcoins can only go up. Buy now or be priced out forever. The bitcoin supply  is finite and the demand is infinite. Just like houses. You know, they are making no land anymore. 

There are never any bubbles in the markets and everyone will be rich. You just need to buy.

As much as we all dream about ever rising bitcoin value,
there is not a single financial or commodity or land or housing market that goes up in a straight line.

And cuurently there may be some people interested to drive the bitcoin value down to be able to buy cheaper again.
this could be the reason why someone crashes bitcoincentral bitcoin value to 0.1
this can be done with minimal funds as the market is so illiquid.

>15years analysis experience

Always do your own due diligence & consult your financial advisor. Never invest unless you can afford to lose your entire investment.

http://twitter.com/BitcoinAnalyst

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Raulo
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February 22, 2011, 08:09:24 AM
 #58

As much as we all dream about ever rising bitcoin value,
there is not a single financial or commodity or land or housing market that goes up in a straight line.

So you suggest that eventually everything goes up just not in straight line? And how long must the leg down be to decide that it is no longer going up?

I'm sorry but bitcoin has zero intrinsic value. Just like fiat. The only thing that makes it valuable is the supporting economy of goods and services that can be traded for bitcoin. Growing a bubble is not going to strengthen it. And there is a lot of bubble mentality on this forum. Like this post:
http://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=3713.msg52668#msg52668

If bitcoin continues to go up in value without the bitcoin economy following, it will finally crash. And if the mass market learns that bitcoin is another "beanie babies", it will never become a global medium of exchange. It will remain a toy for geeks.

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February 22, 2011, 08:17:23 AM
 #59

As much as we all dream about ever rising bitcoin value,
there is not a single financial or commodity or land or housing market that goes up in a straight line.

So you suggest that eventually everything goes up just not in straight line? And how long must the leg down be to decide that it is no longer going up?

I'm sorry but bitcoin has zero intrinsic value. Just like fiat. The only thing that makes it valuable is the supporting economy of goods and services that can be traded for bitcoin. Growing a bubble is not going to strengthen it. And there is a lot of bubble mentality on this forum. Like this post:
http://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=3713.msg52668#msg52668

If bitcoin continues to go up in value without the bitcoin economy following, it will finally crash. And if the mass market learns that bitcoin is another "beanie babies", it will never become a global medium of exchange. It will remain a toy for geeks.


I could not agree more with you.
I am not saying it will always go up. Only currnetly, the market has been going up in a stair-step pattern and there is not (yet) anny reason to declare a crash or bubble.
As long as the longterm trend is up (trendline, see my chart analysis) the overall bitcoin market is in a strong uptrend.
If this changes, it might crash.
If the uptrend holds, then the underlying reason may be that bitcoin gets more wildly accepted which supports BTC/USD prices.

>15years analysis experience

Always do your own due diligence & consult your financial advisor. Never invest unless you can afford to lose your entire investment.

http://twitter.com/BitcoinAnalyst

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FreeMoney
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February 22, 2011, 08:19:33 AM
 #60

all this is completely normal in financial markets and has nothing to do with bubbles or bubblegums ;-)

Yeah, because as we all know bitcoins can only go up. Buy now or be priced out forever. The bitcoin supply  is finite and the demand is infinite. Just like houses. You know, they are making no land anymore. 

There are never any bubbles in the markets and everyone will be rich. You just need to buy.

As much as we all dream about ever rising bitcoin value,
there is not a single financial or commodity or land or housing market that goes up in a straight line.

And cuurently there may be some people interested to drive the bitcoin value down to be able to buy cheaper again.
this could be the reason why someone crashes bitcoincentral bitcoin value to 0.1
this can be done with minimal funds as the market is so illiquid.


I don't get it, all they did was get rid of coins at a lower price than they could have gotten, the ask is still the same of course, they can't buy cheaper for it.

It looks like a bug or exploit to me.

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