Bitcoin Forum
March 28, 2024, 09:43:51 AM *
News: Latest Bitcoin Core release: 26.0 [Torrent]
 
   Home   Help Search Login Register More  
Pages: « 1 [2]  All
  Print  
Author Topic: Everyone who profits on Bitcoin is going to jail (split from Mike's blacklist)  (Read 1089 times)
AnonyMint (OP)
Hero Member
*****
Offline Offline

Activity: 518
Merit: 521


View Profile
November 19, 2013, 04:48:30 AM
 #21

First of all, when did I claim it would stop growing?

I quoted you upthread writing it would "stabilize".

I mean, in the end, everything will stop growing at some point (c.f. heat death of the universe and all), but I see no reason why can't grow indefinitely. At some point it will have to start growing more slowly. But I don't see any reason why the value of bitcoin can't grow right along with real GDP.

Even if that were true, which I think is incredulously ignorant to assume, the current investors are not going to be satisfied 1 - 3% growth per year. They are not investing in savings account. They will move their funds to a better investment.

Therefor, it will crash in value. And no one wants to hold something that is crashing.


Secondly, I don't see the contradiction. The value of all bitcoins in existence is currently $9 billion. That's not much more than $1 for each person on earth. There's no need for anyone to keep owning huge amount of BTC.

It is not held by everyone on earth. The average holding in Bitcoin is about $10,000 rough guesstimate (and for them the average will be $100,000 if BitCON increases another 10X). They won't gift it to the other 7 billion people. They will exit and invest in something that can grow, once there are no more fools to bring money into the ponzi BitCON.

Most people that own BTC, own 10 to million times more than they would keep in a checking account.

Most people that own BTC probably try to keep as little in a checking account as possible. I know I do.

BTC is different, because we know there will never be more than 21 million BTC.

Wow your IQ must be about 105.

Don't you see you just supported my argument with what you wrote above? You are claiming they want to hold some because it is rare, which means they expect it to go up in value.

Sorry man, I am not going to waste more of my time on an idiot.

So don't tell me that my thread is baseless. Your intellectual capacity is incapable of understanding.

I don't agree.

Your 105 IQ opinion should be ignored by everyone.

unheresy.com - Prodigiously Elucidating the Profoundly ObtuseTHIS FORUM ACCOUNT IS NO LONGER ACTIVE
1711619031
Hero Member
*
Offline Offline

Posts: 1711619031

View Profile Personal Message (Offline)

Ignore
1711619031
Reply with quote  #2

1711619031
Report to moderator
You get merit points when someone likes your post enough to give you some. And for every 2 merit points you receive, you can send 1 merit point to someone else!
Advertised sites are not endorsed by the Bitcoin Forum. They may be unsafe, untrustworthy, or illegal in your jurisdiction.
1711619031
Hero Member
*
Offline Offline

Posts: 1711619031

View Profile Personal Message (Offline)

Ignore
1711619031
Reply with quote  #2

1711619031
Report to moderator
AnonyMint (OP)
Hero Member
*****
Offline Offline

Activity: 518
Merit: 521


View Profile
November 19, 2013, 04:49:57 AM
 #22

AnoyMint:

You need to organize your argument into one place that is clear and concise, and avoid the logical fallacies you seem to resort to when trying to get your point across to people who don't understand you. If the average person can't understand your train of thought, your efforts are futile.

I feel like you think we are all jumping aboard a train that everyone reasons(perhaps falsely) is going to a better place while you're yelling from the side of the tracks with a bull horn saying its really going to crash. If you are right, you're doing everyone a disservice by trying to solve the problem this way. To them you seem like some crazed doomsayer there to steal their dreams.

If you are really convinced that you are right, arguing with people on this forum will get you nowhere. Make some videos like this guy did http://www.youtube.com/channel/UCgo7FCCPuylVk4luP3JAgVw/videos that are clear, concise and everyone can follow. If people can understand them, the arguments are valid and you can sway them, it will spread further and you will make much more of an impact.

Right now my initial gut feeling upon digging through your old posts is that you're a conspiracy theorist suffering from conformation bias.

Prove me wrong.


I have no desire to prove anything. Go on.

unheresy.com - Prodigiously Elucidating the Profoundly ObtuseTHIS FORUM ACCOUNT IS NO LONGER ACTIVE
rogue13
Newbie
*
Offline Offline

Activity: 46
Merit: 0


View Profile
November 19, 2013, 04:56:17 AM
 #23

In summary I'm just saying, wouldn't your effort be better spend formulating a more effective way to reach people? This back and forth arguing and the way you attack others arguments will lead to many people ignoring the point it seems you're trying to get across, however valid it may be.
AnonyMint (OP)
Hero Member
*****
Offline Offline

Activity: 518
Merit: 521


View Profile
November 19, 2013, 05:09:07 AM
 #24

But most importantly, the current investors don't have to stay invested. They can keep a few hundred dollars worth for spending money, and sell the rest to other people to keep for spending money, and if every person in the world has on average $30 worth of bitcoins then bitcoin is worth $10,000/BTC.

You don't understand math of exponential growth.

How exactly are you going to distribute it that widely fast enough when the gains slow down and the big holders want to exit pronto, not over a period of years to decades to exit.

Once a few exit pronto, the price starts crashing, because the float is tiny compared to the market cap.

Then they stampede to the exits.

No investment in the history of the world can behave as you have assumed. It is mathematically impossible.

The only way would be if the government confiscated it and redistributed it by decree into every bank account.

Over 150, actually.

hahaha. Well now you've blown your credibility to smithereens.

unheresy.com - Prodigiously Elucidating the Profoundly ObtuseTHIS FORUM ACCOUNT IS NO LONGER ACTIVE
AnonyMint (OP)
Hero Member
*****
Offline Offline

Activity: 518
Merit: 521


View Profile
November 19, 2013, 05:14:12 AM
 #25

In summary I'm just saying, wouldn't your effort be better spend formulating a more effective way to reach people? This back and forth arguing and the way you attack others arguments will lead to many people ignoring the point it seems you're trying to get across, however valid it may be.

Agreed. And the best way is with an altcoin, not talking. Code and something better to buy speaks louder than words.

unheresy.com - Prodigiously Elucidating the Profoundly ObtuseTHIS FORUM ACCOUNT IS NO LONGER ACTIVE
AnonyMint (OP)
Hero Member
*****
Offline Offline

Activity: 518
Merit: 521


View Profile
November 19, 2013, 05:16:24 AM
Last edit: November 19, 2013, 05:36:15 AM by AnonyMint
 #26

Quote
I quickly looked for her twitter account's main page. It says "happily married". Translation: "OK people? Back off I am taken already!" Grin
Was thinking the same thing. Never seen this before in a Twitter description. There must be a lost of Bitcoin guys hiting on her.

I was wondering why no one mentioned Zerocoin or Coinjoin. Which would be a huge deal for all government agencies. Don't they know about that or what is the deal here?

What about Zerocoin or Coinjoin?

Doesn't help at all for several reasons. For one thing, you are only as anonymous as the others who use it with you, because once they reveal their identities, then you can be isolated. The probability of you being found increases over time, as more and more downstream trail on the public ledger reveals more and more identities.

BitCON just can't be made anonymous. The only way is to build in the anonymity into the protocol of the coin.


The Senate Committee conversation today definitely was interesting this seems almost like a moot topic as the government itself is still working on Guidelines

How can they enforce blacklists?

Now you know why I am working on a more anonymous altcoin.

We will need an escape hatch very soon.

Will they whitelist? Which means if they don't know your identity they block you. But where is the block placed? At the exchanges I presume where they have AML and KYC authority?

Perhaps they declare it is illegal to receive coins which are not whitelisted. So then anonymous coins won't be accepted by anyone who is not anonymous.

Anonymity is an all or nothing unless some countries will resist USA edicts.

We are heading into cyberwarfare. You must go anonymous or be harvested by the "confiscate all wealth" coming when the global economy implodes.

You will have no choice but to go anonymous, or you lose nearly everything. This is what most people don't realize yet.

The law isn't going to help you. Again read my thread:

https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=323988.msg3626642#msg3626642
https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=323988.msg3627932#msg3627932

The elite have a definitive plan to confiscate everything.

One of the plans floated by Larry Summers and Paul Krugman is to force everyone into electronic currency, then deduct from your account automatically by forcing negative interest rates. They say this is the only way to keep funding socialism forever.

You all don't understand. We are really headed into a global nightmare of unfathomable wickedness.

They don't plan to end this. This is forever in their mind. Which means we will go into war and wickedness.

unheresy.com - Prodigiously Elucidating the Profoundly ObtuseTHIS FORUM ACCOUNT IS NO LONGER ACTIVE
AnonyMint (OP)
Hero Member
*****
Offline Offline

Activity: 518
Merit: 521


View Profile
November 19, 2013, 06:56:25 AM
Last edit: November 19, 2013, 07:11:12 AM by AnonyMint
 #27

As I already said, I wish we had moved up more slowly. At this point I wouldn't be surprised if we went lower before going higher again. If we go a whole lot higher than this in a short period of time I'm going to have to strongly consider selling, even though I'll take quite a hit tax-wise.

I wasn't suggesting the ponzi crash to near 0 will come soon. The market cap will probably move into the $trillions first.

There is probably not any benefit to selling if you intend to buy back in after a dip. See this chart:

https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=322058.msg3627236#msg3627236

I am not trying to talk people into selling now. I am trying to talk them into never buying, and if they already profited, to work out a plan for avoiding the jail time when the ponzi implodes 2016ish and the governments come hunting down all those who profited at the expense of all those who lost everything.

Right now BitCON is not larger than some large cap stocks. When it is 100 times the largest stock and it collapses, then a huge proportion of the population of investors are going to be harmed.

And it won't go to 1/10 of it's value, it will go to near 0 in relative terms, perhaps 1/1000000 or so of peak price.

Note to AnnoyMint, take a few days to gather your thoughts, write a single coherent post with your ideas and PM me.  I'll un-ignore you for long enough to crush your pathetic ramblings.

Why would I care? You are free to be ignorant. I have no incentive to try to stop you.

unheresy.com - Prodigiously Elucidating the Profoundly ObtuseTHIS FORUM ACCOUNT IS NO LONGER ACTIVE
AnonyMint (OP)
Hero Member
*****
Offline Offline

Activity: 518
Merit: 521


View Profile
November 19, 2013, 07:08:34 AM
 #28

http://www.patrickpretty.com/2013/07/30/gary-calhoun-mpb-today-mlm-operator-jailed-in-florida/

http://nz.finance.yahoo.com/news/david-ross-dished-record-jail-014100479.html

http://www.ponziclawbacks.com/2013/10/18/infomercial-kingpin-off-to-jail/

http://euronomist.blogspot.com/2013/07/ponzi-games-pyramid-schemes-and-mlms.html

http://amlmskeptic.blogspot.com/2013/07/ponzi-liar-gets-jail-sentenced-doubled.html

http://www.clarkhoward.com/news/clark-howard/scams-rip-offs/huge-returns-secret-formulas-are-hallmarks-ponzi-s/nPbzm/

http://kschang.hubpages.com/hub/How-Pyramid-Schemes-and-Ponzi-Schemes-are-Prosecuted-in-the-US

http://www.mlmwatchdog.com/internet_pyramid_ponzi_law.html

Who of you have not been profiting from and promoting this BitCON ponzi scheme?

Are you going to argue "Satoshi" made you do it?

unheresy.com - Prodigiously Elucidating the Profoundly ObtuseTHIS FORUM ACCOUNT IS NO LONGER ACTIVE
AnonyMint (OP)
Hero Member
*****
Offline Offline

Activity: 518
Merit: 521


View Profile
November 19, 2013, 07:44:16 AM
 #29

The old ladies and masses will come into BitCON last. They will buy in size, because it will be a mass mania. It is very clear it is a mania already and the market cap is only $10 billion. When it hits $1 trillion market cap, everyone and their half-uncle will have BitCON fever.

Like any such phenomenon, the later investors outnumber the early ones by orders-of-magnitude.

Then by the logic I explained upthread, it will collapse because there are no new investors to buy in at a fast enough rate to maintain the rate of price growth the early investors expect. So they will exit, but only a miniscule percent will make it out before it collapses.

The stampede will ensue, then after the dust settles, the old ladies and masses will be wiped out. And not just a few of them as with a company stock collapse, but the entire globe.

So either you will be wiped out by the collapse, or you will be a marked man for having profited while most where destroyed.

So there is the perfect opportunity for the government to step in and require everyone to provide their identity and then clawback the ill-gotten gains who have destroyed the world. And not just the USA, but global cooperation, because people will be wiped out in every country. So there is your NWO. You all are handing it to the elite on a silver platter.

I mean what are you people thinking? You are not thinking, because your pre-frontal cortex has been shutdown by the greed fever.

This is exactly how we get to NWO and 666.

And there is no possible logic you can present of how there can be any other outcome.

Just read the upthread discussion. BitCON's highly concentrated distribution prevents any other outcome.

unheresy.com - Prodigiously Elucidating the Profoundly ObtuseTHIS FORUM ACCOUNT IS NO LONGER ACTIVE
freedomno1
Legendary
*
Offline Offline

Activity: 1806
Merit: 1090


Learning the troll avoidance button :)


View Profile
November 20, 2013, 08:24:47 AM
 #30

Again you demonstrate your ignorance of math. (Presumption)

A gain of specific number of BTC every year is not exponential gain and is actually monotonically decelerating. A percentage gain is "exponential" with constant velocity and no acceleration. (Fact)

It not contradictory because no one is expecting to keep owning huge amount of BTC once the value is stabilized, i.e. stop growing as you claimed it could. They will move into new investments that can grow.

Most people that own BTC, own 10 to million times more than they would keep in a checking account. When it stops growing in value, they will reduce to what they would keep for spending, and invest the lion's share in something that can grow.

Thus BitCON is a ponzi scheme and will implode to 1/10 to 1/millionth of its peak price.

So don't tell me that my thread is baseless. Your intellectual capacity is incapable of understanding.

Readers, I linked to my thread about 3 pages back in this thread, before anth0ny cluttered this thread with 3 pages of nonsense tit-for-tat.

A gain of specific number of BTC every year is not exponential gain and is actually monotonically decelerating. A percentage gain is "exponential" with constant velocity and no acceleration.

0   1   50.00   2009   0   2625000   2625000   infinite   12.500%
52500   1   50.00   2010   2625000   2625000   5250000   100.00%   25.000%
105000   1   50.00   2011   5250000   2625000   7875000   50.00%   37.500%
157500   1   50.00   2012   7875000   2625000   10500000   33.33%   50.000%
210000   2   25.00   2013   10500000   1312500   11812500   12.50%   56.250%
262500   2   25.00   2014   11812500   1312500   13125000   11.11%   62.500%
315000   2   25.00   2015   13125000   1312500   14437500   10.00%   68.750%
367500   2   25.00   2016   14437500   1312500   15750000   9.09%   75.000%
420000   3   12.50   2017   15750000   656250   16406250   4.17%   78.125%
472500   3   12.50   2018   16406250   656250   17062500   4.00%   81.250%
525000   3   12.50   2019   17062500   656250   17718750   3.85%   84.375%
577500   3   12.50   2020   17718750   656250   18375000   3.70%   87.500%
630000   4   6.25   2021   18375000   328125   18703125   1.79%   89.063%
682500   4   6.25   2022   18703125   328125   19031250   1.75%   90.625%
735000   4   6.25   2023   19031250   328125   19359375   1.72%   92.188%
787500   4   6.25   2024   19359375   328125   19687500   1.69%   93.750%

Declining scale it is a deflationary currency


Most people that own BTC, own 10 to million times more than they would keep in a checking account. When it stops growing in value, they will reduce to what they would keep for spending, and invest the lion's share in something that can grow.

Economic Cycle I presume

Thus BitCON is a ponzi scheme and will implode to 1/10 to 1/millionth of its peak price.

So don't tell me that my thread is baseless. Your intellectual capacity is incapable of understanding.

Readers, I linked to my thread about 3 pages back in this thread, before anth0ny cluttered this thread with 3 pages of nonsense tit-for-tat.

But the second part is incorrect

Case Expansion:

Deflationary spiral is an economic argument that proposes that runaway deflation can eventually lead to the collapse of the currency given certain conditions and constraints. It is a common criticism made against the viability of Bitcoin. The ‘deflationary spiral’ is a real condition that affects the popular fractional reserve backing system. Bitcoin is not affected by this because it is fundamentally different from popular currency.

Deflation is a decline in the general price level. Deflation occurs when the price of goods and services, relative to a specific measure, decline. It is not necessarily that the value of the goods and services themselves declined, but can be because the value of the currency itself increased.

For example, let us consider an economy comprised entirely of beef and oranges where the medium of exchange is gold. Both beef and oranges can decay and are not consistent, and therefore cannot be used as a currency. In order to trade, people exchange gold for either beef or oranges. They see gold as a store of value that they can use to purchase beef or oranges in the future. What happens when the economy grows and we can produce more beef and more oranges? The price of both beef and oranges will decline. To the extent our productive capacity for both beef and oranges increased at the same pace, the exchange value between the two (the amount of beef for a given number of oranges) will likely stay the same; however, those who held gold as a store of value would now be able to purchase more beef and more oranges for a given amount of gold.

A deflationary spiral occurs when the value of a currency, relative to the goods in an economy, increases continually as a result of hoarding. As the value of the currency relative to the goods in the economy increase, people have the incentive to hoard the currency, because by merely holding it, they hope to be able to purchase more goods for less money in the future. A lack of currency available in the market causes the price of goods to further decrease, resulting in more hoarding.

In our economy of beef and oranges it is easy to see how this could occur. First, people see a significant gain in productivity on the horizon; we will be able to produce more beef and oranges for the same effort in the future. The supply of gold, however, is fixed. As a result, people desire to hold gold, because they will be able to purchase more beef and oranges with their gold in the future than they can now. This will lead to a decline in the price of beef and oranges as measured by gold (an increase in the value of gold). Limiting the amount of currency in the market available for exchange can also make transactions more difficult. In a complex system where we do not only have beef, oranges and gold, this can result in a deflationary spiral where no one wishes to spend their currency and the economy itself slows as a result of the limited number of transactions. Limited demand with fixed output results in a decline in prices, which further exacerbates the problem.

Alternative explanation: A deflationary spiral occurs when the price of a traded article increases at some given rate, which causes people to hoard it. As people hoard the commodity, less and less of it is available thus causing the price to go up even more. In turn, even more people hoard the commodity. Thus a feedback loop or spiral of deflation occurs.

In practice, there is only a limited amount of 'value' that can be placed upon a good before it becomes too attractive to trade for other goods (thus ending the spiral). The only time that the 'Deflationary Spiral' can happen (to it's conclusion) is when people can foresee a time where they are forced to use that particular traded article.

The popular money that we trade consists of the principal of the loans of other people. All this money must be someday 'repaid.' When people save (pay back their loans), the total monetary supply contracts. When people spend (take out loans), the total monetary supply is increasing.

If you have people who are hoarding money, the principal still needs to be repaid. Hoarding will make it harder for other people in the economy to pay back their loans.

Because people foresee a time where they need to pay back their loans (a future fixed expense), when the value of the money starts to increase (deflation), those with loans will endeavor to pay back the loans quicker. This causes the monetary supply to reduce, reducing the total amount of money available for repayment of loans, again making it harder for people to pay back what they owe.

This Deflationary spiral diverts funds away from the legitimate economy, to the repayment of debt. Causing the economy to stagnate and stop.

The key difference is that people don't foresee a fixed cost (unit amount) that they must pay with Bitcoin. If the value of the Bitcoins that they own increases, then any future cost will take a proportionally smaller amount of Bitcoins. There isn't any fixed incentive to holding Bitcoin other than speculation.

If the economy that uses Bitcoin grows, the per-unit value of Bitcoin proportionally increases also.
Everything is the opposite of the popular fractional reserve banking system (because Bitcoin isn't a debt but an asset). Bitcoins only deflate in value when the Bitcoin Economy is growing.

Because the Deflationary spiral is a real problem in the traditional monetary system, doesn't necessarily mean that it will also be a problem in the Bitcoin economy.

"Elaborate controls to make sure that currency is not produced in greater numbers is not something any other currency, like the dollar or the euro, has," says Russ Roberts, professor of economics at George Mason University. The consequence will likely be slow and steady deflation, as the growth in circulating bitcoins declines and their value rises. "That is considered very destructive in today's economies, mostly because when it occurs, it is unexpected," says Roberts. But he thinks that won't apply in an economy where deflation is expected. "In a Bitcoin world, everyone would anticipate that, and they know what they got paid would buy more then than it would now."

--MIT Technology Review: What Bitcoin Is, and Why It Matters, May 25, 2011

A deflationary spiral occurs when there is an incentive to hoard because of declining prices, which results in even less available currency on the market, further perpetuating declining prices.

How could this occur in the Bitcoin market?
1. Limited price stability has a negative impact on the acceptance of a currency. Vendors do not wish to speculate on the price of currency when selling goods or services.

2. Once prices do stabilize in the future, there will always be the knowledge that the number of Bitcoins in the market is limited. As a result, to the extent the GDP of the Bitcoin economy increases (the total value of all Bitcoin transactions completed increases in "real" terms), there will continue to be price deflation. The expectation of future deflation means that there will be a discrepancy in perceived values between parties valuing bitcoin on longer or shorter time horizons. The apparent over-pricing of bitcoin from the perspective of people engaging in short term transactions will encourage the creation and adoption of competing systems.

While this is not a traditional deflationary spiral, the constraint on the actual money supply can produce the same result, which is a limit on the value of goods and services transacted using Bitcoins.

Believing in Bitcoins and it's ability to change the world
Pages: « 1 [2]  All
  Print  
 
Jump to:  

Powered by MySQL Powered by PHP Powered by SMF 1.1.19 | SMF © 2006-2009, Simple Machines Valid XHTML 1.0! Valid CSS!