Bitcoin is rising in value for no good reason at all

[ElectricMucus]

Sure imagining things is pretty healthy.

[1713858930]

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[Odalv]

Sure imagining things is pretty healthy.

EM is ultra-bull :-)
Edit: good for bitcoin?
Edit2: time to sell all yuor bitcoins

[Odalv]

Sure imagining things is pretty healthy.

Red team never runs out, the ammo is recyclable and indestructible.

Lies.  You're confusing the red team with the green team.

Once you have their money you never give it back. Bitcoins are not money.

Green team has thugs, weapons and land. Red team has faith.
Don't be a martyr.

Haha now that's confusing camps eh? 

[ElectricMucus]

Hmm, I can't really remember what I meant by that.

[johnyj]

No spending = supply bottleneck, causing it to become harder to buy, making it in higher demand, reducing incentive to spend it even further, bottlenecking supply further still, raising value, etc.  Inflate the balloon.

The question is when will this loop stop?

As I can see, there is no way to stop this loop until the central banks tighten the money supply or bitcoin had some fundamental problem in its infrastructure

And even central bank tighten the money supply, people still can exchange bitcoins with physical goods and services, and they will happily offer a discount when paid in bitcoin

[Odalv]

Hmm, I can't really remember what I meant by that.

I know, SR is closed :-)

[User705]

......until!

Pyramide collapse 

In 20 years we can tell:

Either bitcoin was/is a full success or one of the biggest pyramide schemes ever.

Bitcoin will be here if you want or not. Question is
a) will bitcoin become mainstream ?
b) bitcoin will become underground's/hacker's currency and will be using at black market.

Or both.  Dollar, euro, pound manage to do both just fine.

[marcovaldo]

Correction is coming.
Sooner than you think

[Odalv]

Correction is coming.
Sooner than you think

I like corrections. I increase my bitcoins holdings.

[Bitlend]

......until!

Pyramide collapse 

In 20 years we can tell:

Either bitcoin was/is a full success or one of the biggest pyramide schemes ever.

Bitcoin will be here if you want or not. Question is
a) will bitcoin become mainstream ?
b) bitcoin will become underground's/hacker's currency and will be using at black market.

b) Bitcoin already is underground.




 


 

[DoomDumas]

It is rising as fast as it is only because transacting in it is terribly disincentivized (which is the complete opposite of what it claims). 
You can't spend it easily, and you can't change it back into fiat easily. Once people who bought in figure this out, what else is there to do but hold it?
And this kicks off the recursive bubble process:

People don't want to spend it because they'll lose out on market gains.  When I say 'spend' i am also referring to buying fiat with it, not just goods.

No spending = supply bottleneck #1, causing it to become harder to buy, making it in higher demand, reducing incentive to spend it even further, bottlenecking supply further still, raising value, etc.  Inflate the balloon.

Not only do people not want to spend it, it is exceedingly difficult do when you do. I am not talking a handful of token "look at me hop on the bitcoin fadwagon, gibe me free press coverage nao thx" pizzas and subway sandwiches and VPN accounts here, i am talking real consumer economy-driving spending. 

And wait till mom and pop average figure out how hard it is (if not impossible) to get any hard cash funds out of any exchange (i am looking at you, Mt.Gox, with your 7 day email response times), particularly US$, and most acutely when they *need* it back for holiday shopping. Cue flood of evening news hit piece stories on the long faced sad sacks and bag holders who are astonished to find that they can't buy their family Christmas presents because their bitcoin 'bonanza' is useless as a means of practical day to day commerce.

I suspect that up to half of the apparent "popularity" of Bitcoin the past 4 weeks or so, is entirely due to the friction of moving funds in - and especially out -  of Bitcoin.   

And when the upper middle class to wealthy Chinese who only care about Bitcoin as a means to move RMB out of china into USD under the radar, find out just how much of a pain in the ass it is to turn it into USD, their support is going to disappear in a puff of panic.

I believe in the underlying concept of bitcoin but I am getting the feeling it is going to die from over exposure before it is ready to handle the attention.

It's rising in price because it's scarcity, like gold.  But it way more usefull than gold.

About conversion back to fiat.. 1st better spent your btc on something else than fiat.  If youre using mtgox.. too bad.. wrost place.

I've bought hundreds of things with btc, for me it's by far the more easy and the fastest methot to pay.

Im using CaVirtex for exchange btc/fiat fiat/btc.. its only few click.. very fast.. usually the money goes within 24h.. never had any problem.

Sorry, i just disagree with each and every point you raised..  using btc for 4 years now...

Let's where we will stand in five years.

[minutetaker]

This thread has reminded me how many stupid people are involved in bitcoin.  OP presents a reasonable argument, and there have a been a couple of reasonable points brought up as counter arguments (senate hearing etc).  Most, however, aggressively react because OP isn't an idiot who thinks btc will just endlessly rise forever.  This sort of moronic mentality is what leads to the financial crisis inherent in capitalism, as Marx said, capital cannot abide a limit.  The most common example is housing (08 GFC, 90's Asian crisis, Savings & Loans crisis etc) but it can be seen in numerous other instances such as tulipmania.  Bitcoin was created to overcome the failures of fiat money (and the associated institutions that dominate the capitalist system) and if you guys are too stupid to critically think for a second, bitcoin is gonna become the same as any other bubble commodity. 

Admittedly Im involved for speculative purposes, I love the potential that bitcoin possesses with regard to creating economic freedom through decentralization and institutional circumvention, but the overwhelming mentality surrounding btc on this forum gives me little hope.  I wanna profit and get out before the whales (who are behaving exactly the same if not are the same people who are responsible for the inherit corruption of fiat) bail, because this forum, in my mind, represents the bitcoin majority (not majority value holders, but numerical majority), who when all is said and done are gonna look exactly the same as the people standing in the street after 08 going "gee, who would have thought housing prices wouldn't just skyrocket forever", whilst the rich just keep getting richer.

[Luckybit]

It is rising as fast as it is only because transacting in it is terribly disincentivized (which is the complete opposite of what it claims). 
You can't spend it easily, and you can't change it back into fiat easily. Once people who bought in figure this out, what else is there to do but hold it?
And this kicks off the recursive bubble process:

People don't want to spend it because they'll lose out on market gains.  When I say 'spend' i am also referring to buying fiat with it, not just goods.

No spending = supply bottleneck #1, causing it to become harder to buy, making it in higher demand, reducing incentive to spend it even further, bottlenecking supply further still, raising value, etc.  Inflate the balloon.

Not only do people not want to spend it, it is exceedingly difficult do when you do. I am not talking a handful of token "look at me hop on the bitcoin fadwagon, gibe me free press coverage nao thx" pizzas and subway sandwiches and VPN accounts here, i am talking real consumer economy-driving spending. 

And wait till mom and pop average figure out how hard it is (if not impossible) to get any hard cash funds out of any exchange (i am looking at you, Mt.Gox, with your 7 day email response times), particularly US$, and most acutely when they *need* it back for holiday shopping. Cue flood of evening news hit piece stories on the long faced sad sacks and bag holders who are astonished to find that they can't buy their family Christmas presents because their bitcoin 'bonanza' is useless as a means of practical day to day commerce.

I suspect that up to half of the apparent "popularity" of Bitcoin the past 4 weeks or so, is entirely due to the friction of moving funds in - and especially out -  of Bitcoin.   

And when the upper middle class to wealthy Chinese who only care about Bitcoin as a means to move RMB out of china into USD under the radar, find out just how much of a pain in the ass it is to turn it into USD, their support is going to disappear in a puff of panic.

I believe in the underlying concept of bitcoin but I am getting the feeling it is going to die from over exposure before it is ready to handle the attention.

If you don't need something you shouldn't buy something. STOP WASTING THE WORLDS RESOURCES.

And get richly rewarded.

[BitchicksHusband]

Believe what you like and if you don't want to invest then don't.  I realize that $1,000 to $10,000 is much more difficult to imagine than .10 to $1 or $1 to $10, but it's exactly the same thing that bitcoin has already done over and over.  And so few people understand what bitcoin really could do compared to current financial systems, that most of us believe it has a long way to go.

We're fine.  If bitcoin goes to zero, then I'll lose what I put into it.  So what?  Should I put it in the stock market instead?

My brother is a reverse mortgage lender and talks to old people every day.  People whose entire retirement was wiped out in 2008 because their 401ks lost 70-90% of their value.  Over and over again.  Every.  Single.  Day.

Why do you feel the need to come in here and save us from ourselves?  We're grown adults and we understand the risk.

[lukaszpp]

One word: Chinese.
And also there is a lot of international business in Hong Kong, which - if informed properly - could easily double the BTC market cap. It is like international wall street.

[kkaspar]

This thread has reminded me how many stupid people are involved in bitcoin.  OP presents a reasonable argument, and there have a been a couple of reasonable points brought up as counter arguments (senate hearing etc).  Most, however, aggressively react because OP isn't an idiot who thinks btc will just endlessly rise forever.  This sort of moronic mentality is what leads to the financial crisis inherent in capitalism, as Marx said, capital cannot abide a limit.  The most common example is housing (08 GFC, 90's Asian crisis, Savings & Loans crisis etc) but it can be seen in numerous other instances such as tulipmania.  Bitcoin was created to overcome the failures of fiat money (and the associated institutions that dominate the capitalist system) and if you guys are too stupid to critically think for a second, bitcoin is gonna become the same as any other bubble commodity. 

Admittedly Im involved for speculative purposes, I love the potential that bitcoin possesses with regard to creating economic freedom through decentralization and institutional circumvention, but the overwhelming mentality surrounding btc on this forum gives me little hope.  I wanna profit and get out before the whales (who are behaving exactly the same if not are the same people who are responsible for the inherit corruption of fiat) bail, because this forum, in my mind, represents the bitcoin majority (not majority value holders, but numerical majority), who when all is said and done are gonna look exactly the same as the people standing in the street after 08 going "gee, who would have thought housing prices wouldn't just skyrocket forever", whilst the rich just keep getting richer.

Well said.
I always watch where I talk about bitcoin, just because the community is full of people like that. These are the people who are visiting self-help classes that teach them how to be millionaires without any work. They are graving any new get-rich-quick scheme sthat presents itself to them and they will defend it with intense emotion. For those people, saying things like "BTC will crash soon", is like telling christians "Jesus is a myth". They will defend their dogmas till the end.
I think that the real value lies in cryptocurrencies in general and BTC contribution was mostly to show that decentralized and democratic financial system is actually possible. I think that the development of cryptos will get more complex and those people will be filtered off who can only come online to buy their bitcoin, so they could soon be rich. Cryptos will have an important part in the future and many people will become wealthy by working with cryptos. The amount of fools is just the faults of the current raw situation the cryptos are in. Most of these fools will lose their money anyway and will have no significant place in the future of cryptos.

[piramida]

Are only people who have absolutely no idea allowed in this thread? So many clueless people it's amazing

The illiquidity argument has to be the stupidest one so far, congratulations. The only time it's even remotely true is when you hold thousands of bitcoins, then yes, may be hard to cash out but due to all different reasons - and I don't believe any of the trolls here actually have anything remotely similar to that. In reality, anybody can get money in the bank in exchange for their bitcoins in as much time as it takes the slow banking system to send the money. If you can't figure it out, then I guess you still didn't figure out how to exchange bank bills for food.

Ok, now please continue discussing something you've never even seen

[mikeymillie]

And when the upper middle class to wealthy Chinese who only care about Bitcoin as a means to move RMB out of china into USD under the radar, find out just how much of a pain in the ass it is to turn it into USD, their support is going to disappear in a puff of panic.

I believe in the underlying concept of bitcoin but I am getting the feeling it is going to die from over exposure before it is ready to handle the attention.

.Ahem.

[tonto]

When I cash out, I use gyft.com.  Sure it's not pure cash, but if my wife sees money coming into the bank account, then *she* might spend it.  Whereas a gift card is mine, allll mine!!   Especially amazon gift cards.  You can almost buy anything through amazon.  So yeah, it's super easy to cash-out in fiat, if you don't mind indirect methods.