8/4/11 Speculation Thread

[lemonginger]

You say that like it's a good thing

I'm not interested in bitcoin for the promise of 1000X returns and I'm not particularly tied to this blockchain over new blockchain technologies that might emerge. I'm interested in a viable cryptocurrency for the future.

So whether it goes down in price or not is fairly immaterial to me (at some point I'll shut off my miners, but that's my only concern).

Personally I think bitcoin has a lot to gain from going back "underground" for a year or so while more client programs and infrastructure emerge.

I think the price of bitcoin will eventually reflect its usefulness, but I dont think its usefulness is tied to its price, especially as a pure medium of exchange, which is what I'm most interested in it as.

[1714777969]

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[1714777969]

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[1714777969]

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[molecular]

Watching those walls you mention get put up and torn down within seconds on mtgoxlive makes me go "hmmmm".  You can see the lines jump thousands of BTC or tens of thousands of USD all of a sudden.  There is a very large bot or human messing with us.  The only thing that is clear is that he has a ton of money to play with.  Confirms the speculators that always say "you think the market moves a lot now? wait until your average wallstreet guy comes in and starts throwing a few million around".

Good thing it will be millions of USD, not millions of BTC.

Somebody just threw up 10,000BTCs at $10.  Methinks we're going down.

Why? This could well just be someone wanting to buy. Putting a fake wall like that tends to trigger a lot of orders just below it, which can then be bought up. After that, the wall order is removed.

We'll see...

EDIT: wall at $10 now 17,000 BTC

[bitcon]

thank god i bought in at $17.50

[Crazy]

Might want to consider cutting your loses before your hand is forced @ $5-6

[bitcon]

no i already used them to buy a bunch of drugs... hehe.. bitcoin might get down to $5 or less, but it will not die. too many good uses for it.

[FlipPro]

Miners don't sell your Bitcoins ! Just buy things with them...

https://en.bitcoin.it/wiki/Trade

[shmadz]

You say that like it's a good thing

I'm not interested in bitcoin for the promise of 1000X returns and I'm not particularly tied to this blockchain over new blockchain technologies that might emerge. I'm interested in a viable cryptocurrency for the future.

So whether it goes down in price or not is fairly immaterial to me (at some point I'll shut off my miners, but that's my only concern).

Personally I think bitcoin has a lot to gain from going back "underground" for a year or so while more client programs and infrastructure emerge.

I think the price of bitcoin will eventually reflect its usefulness, but I dont think its usefulness is tied to its price, especially as a pure medium of exchange, which is what I'm most interested in it as.

my thoughts *almost* exactly - as long as bitcoin, or it's cryptocurrency replacement, becomes widely accepted and trusted, yet remains decentralized and distributed! that's what I'm most hungry for.

*(somewhat off-topic rant coming in 3... 2... 1...)

the globalization or conglomeration of economies that has taken place over the last few years is exactly the opposite way to go.

the whole reason they built the internet in the first place was to have a robust, heavily redundant, network of communication ( see http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/ARPANET )

when you begin to centralize (which is the way we've been going) you introduce a singular point of failure (also a singular point of control, which is the main goal of the global banksters)

after seeing first-hand the dangers of over-centralization in the bitcoin world, we should be pushing for more decentralization in all aspects of our global society. I'm not talking total anarchy here, but I think we need to start moving away from this ever-growing concentration of power at the federal level (and beyond that, the growing consolidation of power from forming the G8, G20, "super-congress" <- lol) and move back to more power at the state (province if you're a canuck   ) and municipal levels... and we need to begin with the currency, or rather the people that control the currency; because it is they, not the governments, that are now controlling the world.

-- sorry for rant. just brainstorming here, throwing some ideas out there.

[kiwiasian]

You say that like it's a good thing

I'm not interested in bitcoin for the promise of 1000X returns and I'm not particularly tied to this blockchain over new blockchain technologies that might emerge. I'm interested in a viable cryptocurrency for the future.

So whether it goes down in price or not is fairly immaterial to me (at some point I'll shut off my miners, but that's my only concern).

Personally I think bitcoin has a lot to gain from going back "underground" for a year or so while more client programs and infrastructure emerge.

I think the price of bitcoin will eventually reflect its usefulness, but I dont think its usefulness is tied to its price, especially as a pure medium of exchange, which is what I'm most interested in it as.

You traders aren't affected by the swings, but us miners have bills to be paid. We are taking a huge hit from these price swings. We are dependent on a higher price while all the traders are like CHEAP BITCOINS YAAAAY (...)

[shmadz]

You traders aren't affected by the swings, but us miners have bills to be paid. We are taking a huge hit from these price swings. We are dependent on a higher price while all the traders are like CHEAP BITCOINS YAAAAY (...)

Just curious, what's your "break-even" point?

I mean including power, replacing burnt out cards, power supply, motherboards, etc... (let's not include initial investment because that gets complicated with figuring resale values and stuff, and as long as bitcoins stay above your break-even point, theoretically you will cover your initial investment eventually)



the reason I ask is cuz I bought a couple extra cards and an air conditioner just to play around with mining (only about 800 total investment) and I'm wondering about setting up another rig, (but that would cost roughly 1200-1500)

I don't pay for power, I live in a small apartment, but I only have 2 15amp fuses so I can realistically only run 2 rigs (I haven't checked yet to see if the plug on my stove is on a seperate fuse)

my air conditioner can easily handle the extra heat, and I sleep in the other room so noise isn't a big deal...

[lemonginger]

You traders aren't affected by the swings, but us miners have bills to be paid. We are taking a huge hit from these price swings. We are dependent on a higher price while all the traders are like CHEAP BITCOINS YAAAAY (...)

I have two rigs I built to mine with. But I did it with "hobby" money, knowing I could lose most of it. Shut off your rigs until winter, or stop thinking about getting rich for not doing much at all, or enjoy it as a hobby, or anything else, but don't expect people to cry crocodile tears since all of the sudden you can't invest in a rig and have it paid off within less than a month. Everyone knew mining was a race to the bottom anyway. Expecting hundreds of percent ROI per year for something nearly anyone with any technical expertise whatsoever can set up and run would be silly.

[bitcon]

6.88 - the hits just keep on coming!   may be down to $2 by tonite!

[KMBTC11]

6.88 - the hits just keep on coming!   may be down to $2 by tonite!

That would be nice since I have some orders down there.  Unfortunately, I expect the bottom is nigh and a more reserved rise will begin in the next day or two.

I expect BTCs to be trading over 9000 in the near future.  (not really)

[cunicula]

You say that like it's a good thing

I'm not interested in bitcoin for the promise of 1000X returns and I'm not particularly tied to this blockchain over new blockchain technologies that might emerge. I'm interested in a viable cryptocurrency for the future.

So whether it goes down in price or not is fairly immaterial to me (at some point I'll shut off my miners, but that's my only concern).

Personally I think bitcoin has a lot to gain from going back "underground" for a year or so while more client programs and infrastructure emerge.

I think the price of bitcoin will eventually reflect its usefulness, but I dont think its usefulness is tied to its price, especially as a pure medium of exchange, which is what I'm most interested in it as.

On this note, we can celebrate key lessons learned.

Security
- personal wallet security is frightening
- online wallets have made things worse [they did not turn out to be the security solution for grannies]
- security failsafes should be coded into the blockchain [eg. user-specified wallet daily txn limits and emergency addresses]

Volatility
- exchange rate volatility is frightening
- blockchain rules should aim to mitigate this [e.g. feedback mechanism to manage coin creation and destruction rates according to  demand]

The good news is that there are solutions to these problems. My outlook for 'a viable cryptocurrency' is positive. In fact, the more that bitcoin gets pummeled by security and volatility, the more positive I feel. Recurrent bad news will lead people to recognize the severity of these issues and the necessity of more radical solutions.

[lemonginger]

On this note, we can celebrate key lessons learned.

Security
- personal wallet security is frightening
- online wallets have made things worse [they did not turn out to be the security solution for grannies]
- security failsafes should be coded into the blockchain [eg. user-specified wallet daily txn limits and emergency addresses]

1) Yes, for many
2) Crappy online wallets. Good online wallets, backed by larger capital with strong security, robust features, and insurance policies still have not emerged
3) Eh, still think 3rd party tools is best way to go about this, blockchain doesn't need to be any bigger and hard-coded scurity is notoriously difficult to change if broken

Volatility
- exchange rate volatility is frightening
- blockchain rules should aim to mitigate this [e.g. feedback mechanism to manage coin creation and destruction rates according to  demand]

1) Yes, but that is what happens when a market is not only small, but mostly speculation - even then, larger businesses (like a gambling site) could use bitcoins as a mechanism of exchange without much risk by selling instantly and rebuying and xferring bitcoins when customer cashed out

2) That sounds like a recipe for disaster. At least with bitcoin the growth rate is a known quantity, if it was constantly self-adjusting it might lead to even more overshoots and corrections