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Author Topic: Most Bitcoin speculators are at the 'denial' stage of the crash  (Read 12332 times)
HappyFunnyFoo
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August 05, 2011, 09:57:12 PM
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We're at the 'denial' stage right now!  Prepare for more pain Smiley
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August 05, 2011, 10:20:55 PM
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Yay I could use a point of maximum financial opportunity

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August 05, 2011, 10:22:19 PM
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We're at the 'denial' stage right now!  Prepare for more pain Smiley

This ^^

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August 05, 2011, 11:34:35 PM
 #4

If only that chart were to scale and had numbers on it.

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August 05, 2011, 11:35:24 PM
 #5

I'm still stuck at "optimism" Smiley

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August 05, 2011, 11:41:59 PM
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Then we should simply wait for the next optimism+ phases to sell, I guess?

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August 05, 2011, 11:52:03 PM
 #7

Then we should simply wait for the next optimism+ phases to sell, I guess?
THIS Cheesy

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August 06, 2011, 12:04:45 AM
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Then we should simply wait for the next optimism+ phases to sell, I guess?

Sell low

Buy High

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August 06, 2011, 01:26:23 AM
 #9

Then we should simply wait for the next optimism+ phases to sell, I guess?

Sell low

Buy High
What is low? and what is high?
Oldminer
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August 06, 2011, 01:33:01 AM
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What is low? and what is high?

Never mind - i think this game may be too complicated for you  Grin

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August 06, 2011, 01:37:48 AM
 #11

What is low? and what is high?
They are relative to each other. As long as you sell for less than you bought for, you're doing it right.

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August 06, 2011, 01:50:03 AM
 #12

What is low? and what is high?
They are relative to each other. As long as you sell for less than you bought for, you're doing it right.
So I should, say, buy 100 bitcoins for $1,200 and then sell them for $900 -- less than I bought them for?

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The Script
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August 06, 2011, 02:34:11 AM
 #13

What is low? and what is high?
They are relative to each other. As long as you sell for less than you bought for, you're doing it right.


Uh....this doesn't sound quite right.  Try again.   Wink
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August 06, 2011, 02:34:27 AM
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I'd say we are in capitulation...cuz we just had the panic
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August 06, 2011, 02:35:25 AM
 #15

What is low? and what is high?
They are relative to each other. As long as you sell for less than you bought for, you're doing it right.
So I should, say, buy 100 bitcoins for $1,200 and then sell them for $900 -- less than I bought them for?

That's what 'day traders' seem to do every day. It notches down a bit and you sell everything.

The volume charts don't lie, it must be in some perverse, distorted way, be profitable since everyone is doing it.
(Or people really have nerves of.. Tin wire)

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August 06, 2011, 09:03:51 AM
 #16

What is low? and what is high?
They are relative to each other. As long as you sell for less than you bought for, you're doing it right.


Uh....this doesn't sound quite right.  Try again.   Wink
It exactly describes the Oldminer school of speculation:

Sell low

Buy High

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August 06, 2011, 09:29:59 AM
 #17

Long term it's only going up, so i'm not being optimist, i'm being realist.

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August 06, 2011, 10:58:12 AM
 #18

Long term it's only going up, so i'm not being optimist, i'm being realist.

Long term it's going down, so I'm not being a pessimist, I'm being a realist.

$9.30 at the moment and getting close to that $9 wall that inevitably disappears as the price approaches that level.  Bitcoin has been in a slide since the $30 intra day high several months ago.  I have yet to see anything that would cause that trend to reverse.

Its often been said that bitcoin's price goes down on weekends.  We've had one hell of a long weekend so far.

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August 06, 2011, 02:06:17 PM
 #19

There are three classes of bitcoin investors; (disclaimer) I don't know how much research has been done into this, I have done none and am going to make up numbers.

Bitcoin early adopter / fan boys.  Most of the wealth (and many of the people.. I have not been watching the board numbers, but if IRC is any indication..) in the forum probably fall into this category; they think BTC is hot sexiness that the world needs and this implementation has a good shot.  Most of the wealth here has been from mining, early entrepreneurial endeavors, and to a lesser extent early cash investments.  Despite the BTC epic fall from 31; most of these people are in the BLACK.

Bitcoin recent adopters, regular people.  These people more likely didn't hear about bitcoin until more recently (deep into the 4->31 rally), or didn't immediately "get" bitcoin when they did hear about it.  They have thrown more cash in, and their mining efforts have paid off less.  A lot of this money came in when bitcoin was rallying above 10, thus most of these people are in the RED.

Fat cats / Govt Money.  I can only speculate that the govt has bought a fair number of bitcoins; throwing a couple million bucks at something is nothing to them, and it would be silly not to have some of these at their disposal.  Maybe not though.  What definitely happened though, is that people who don't give two shits about bitcoin saw an amazing market; counted up total supply (<7M !!) and saw a good buy.   This is primarily what caused the rally (and will inevitably cause the next).  Smart managers made good money on this rally; but inevitably a lot of these firms/rich people lost money as well.  Since they don't "get" bitcoin and only see a falling market, these are the most likely panic sellers, etc.  Take the loss and move on; without a deep understanding and faith in bitcoin, this is the rational mode of action I imagine these firms to be taking.



The 2nd and third groups are probably past or in the 'panic' stage.  The first group, you're probably right, is in the denial stage.  That being said the people who "get" bitcoin probably believe bitcoin will be >31 USD again in the not too distant future.  I think they are right; but time will tell.
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August 06, 2011, 02:19:48 PM
 #20

LOL, I wonder how many people will look at this and think

"
Oh look, if I just wait a little longer..
"

 Roll Eyes

Too lazy for a fancy sig.. Tongue
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