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Author Topic: 700+ blocks in and estimate for next difficulty is below the current...  (Read 2590 times)
Kermee
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August 06, 2011, 06:27:31 AM
 #1

Current Blocks: 139811
Current Difficulty: 1888786.7053531
Next Difficulty At Block: 141119
Next Difficulty In: 1308 blocks
Next Difficulty In About: 1 week, 2 days, 2 hours, 43 minutes, and 36 seconds
Next Difficulty Estimate: 1886589.36771935

Cheers,
Kermee

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the founder (Bitcoin)
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August 06, 2011, 06:34:32 AM
 #2

Current Blocks: 139811
Current Difficulty: 1888786.7053531
Next Difficulty At Block: 141119
Next Difficulty In: 1308 blocks
Next Difficulty In About: 1 week, 2 days, 2 hours, 43 minutes, and 36 seconds
Next Difficulty Estimate: 1886589.36771935

Cheers,
Kermee

A negative difficulty? Whoa, I've been waiting for this for a LOOOOOOOOOOOONNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNGGGGGG time. Now the network won't be able to mine ANY blocks! Grin

Instantly get 22.5x your Bitcoins!  Play instantly with as little as 0.01 Bitcoins! Absolutely no waiting for block confirmations to play! (http://minefield.bitcoinlab.org/?r=ZtiPHe2v0oyShD8x)
Kermee
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August 06, 2011, 06:36:40 AM
 #3

A negative difficulty? Whoa, I've been waiting for this for a LOOOOOOOOOOOONNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNGGGGGG time. Now the network won't be able to mine ANY blocks!

You solve more blocks by turning miners OFF!

Corrected title Wink

And new estimate: 1884022.57506567 (-0.25%)

Everyone moving to NMC?

Cheers,
Kermee

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August 06, 2011, 07:33:30 AM
 #4

It might finally drop a bit because at current price levels casual miners are out of the game. A typical miner with a 300mhash card is only making $1.6 per day before electricity.. Minus pool luck, exchange rate fluctuations, etc.

Casuals used to be a pretty big part of the mining force.
The only people left are those who will mine regardless of profits or electricity costs, and farms which are still profitable due to the sheer amount of hashing power (worthwhile to keep the machines running)

I'll keep mining even at 3m difficulty because I believe $9 is a grossly undervalued price. It'll eventually go up significantly, no matter if that's 2 weeks, 2 months or 2 years.

1f3gHNoBodYw1LLs3ndY0UanYB1tC0lnsBec4USeYoU9AREaCH34PBeGgAR67fx
hi
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August 06, 2011, 07:34:18 AM
 #5

Lot of people are selling their rigs and cards.  With costs of electricity, undervalued price of btc, all the hackings and just time to keep rigs running--have caused many to say bye bye.  

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August 06, 2011, 08:21:11 AM
 #6

Lot of people are selling their rigs and cards.  With costs of electricity, undervalued price of btc, all the hackings and just time to keep rigs running--have caused many to say bye bye.  



Where are they selling? Ebay, Craigslist and the Goods section here have not shown a significant uptick in listings for GPUs or rigs.

▓▓▓▓▓▓▓▓▓▓▓▓▓▓▓▓▓▓▓▓▓▓▓▓▓▓▓▓▓▓▓▓▓▓▓▓▓▓▓▓▓▓▓▓▓▓▓▓▓▓▓▓▓▓▓▓▓▓▓▓▓▓▓▓▓▓▓▓▓▓▓▓▓▓▓▓▓▓▓▓▓▓▓▓▓▓▓▓▓▓▓▓▓▓▓
▓▓ ONEDICE.ME ▓▓▓▓▓ BEST DICE EXPERIENCE ▓▓▓▓ PLAY OR INVEST ▓▓▓▓▓▓
▓▓▓▓▓▓▓▓▓▓▓▓▓▓▓▓▓▓▓▓▓▓▓▓▓▓▓▓▓▓▓▓▓▓▓▓▓▓▓▓▓▓▓▓▓▓▓▓▓▓▓▓▓▓▓▓▓▓▓▓▓▓▓▓▓▓▓▓▓▓▓▓▓▓▓▓▓▓▓▓▓▓▓▓▓▓▓▓▓▓▓▓▓▓▓
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August 06, 2011, 09:22:59 AM
 #7

A negative difficulty? Whoa, I've been waiting for this for a LOOOOOOOOOOOONNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNGGGGGG time. Now the network won't be able to mine ANY blocks!

You solve more blocks by turning miners OFF!

Corrected title Wink

And new estimate: 1884022.57506567 (-0.25%)

Everyone moving to NMC?

Cheers,
Kermee
Already have

BTC:1AiCRMxgf1ptVQwx6hDuKMu4f7F27QmJC2
hi
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August 06, 2011, 10:12:49 AM
 #8

Lot of people are selling their rigs and cards.  With costs of electricity, undervalued price of btc, all the hackings and just time to keep rigs running--have caused many to say bye bye.  



Where are they selling? Ebay, Craigslist and the Goods section here have not shown a significant uptick in listings for GPUs or rigs.

A cursory check of the Goods section of just this forum shows that 22% of the listings on the front page are for selling rigs or video cards. 

The difficulty does not decrease due to more hashing power being added Smiley
7iain7
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August 06, 2011, 10:27:31 AM
 #9

i turned my miners of after mybitcoin went down. I had 6 5850ati running for month's I live in England so heat was not so much of a problems ,noise was though and the electric bill. I don't feel its worth the effort anymore. i am gutted that i have lost my bitcoins.
But shit happens and i still think bitcoins are a great idea.
Kermee
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August 06, 2011, 07:57:30 PM
 #10

1864707.34482746 (-1.27%)

Looks like we might actually drop...

Cheers,
Kermee

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August 06, 2011, 08:40:38 PM
 #11

Where are you guys getting this info?

I've always blindly regarded bitcoincharts.com's estimations and they're saying
Quote
Estimated   1922292 in 1232 blks

Every site I've seen says relatively the same thing, but none of them say less than 1900000 for next increase.

Help Bitcoins by buying clothes, technology, books, etc. through people/stores that accept BTC. This will increase overall value of BTC as well as mitigate unnecessary bank transaction fees.

My address -
1EM9HGg1SEa5Bux1rVEPxGqGSfNTTc9EkC
geek-trader
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August 06, 2011, 08:45:48 PM
 #12

Where are you guys getting this info?

I've always blindly regarded bitcoincharts.com's estimations and they're saying
Quote
Estimated   1922292 in 1232 blks

Every site I've seen says relatively the same thing, but none of them say less than 1900000 for next increase.

http://dot-bit.org/tools/nextDifficulty.php

Make 1 deposit and earn BTC for life! http://bitcoinpyramid.com/r/345
Play my FREE HTML5 games at: http://magigames.org  BTC donations accepted.
SmokeAndMirrors
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August 06, 2011, 08:59:45 PM
 #13

According to that site, it says next diff will be 1'735'592.65

Help Bitcoins by buying clothes, technology, books, etc. through people/stores that accept BTC. This will increase overall value of BTC as well as mitigate unnecessary bank transaction fees.

My address -
1EM9HGg1SEa5Bux1rVEPxGqGSfNTTc9EkC
Kermee
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August 06, 2011, 09:08:09 PM
 #14

Where are you guys getting this info?

I've always blindly regarded bitcoincharts.com's estimations and they're saying
Quote
Estimated   1922292 in 1232 blks

Every site I've seen says relatively the same thing, but none of them say less than 1900000 for next increase.

http://blockexplorer.com/q/estimate

Cheers,
Kermee

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August 06, 2011, 09:39:47 PM
 #15

Looks like there might be a need for a new site I'm developing!

Here's a snip...

http://i.imgur.com/aqlvu.png
hmblm1245
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August 07, 2011, 12:30:03 AM
 #16

Looks like there might be a need for a new site I'm developing!

Here's a snip...



Looks good link us when ready.
Kermee
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August 15, 2011, 11:59:36 PM
 #17

1805700.8361937

Looks like it was a 4.4% drop.

Cheers,
Kermee

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August 16, 2011, 06:08:36 AM
 #18

1805700.8361937

Looks like it was a 4.4% drop.

Cheers,
Kermee

The estimate for the next drop seems much lower than I would have thought:

1565638.73312961

Anyone know if such a low estimate is normal for a while after a difficulty change, or has the network really lost that much hashing power?

Bitcoin is the ultimate freedom test. It tells you who is giving lip service and who genuinely believes in it.
...
...
In the future, books that summarize the history of money will have a line that says, “and then came bitcoin.” It is the economic singularity. And we are living in it now. - Ryan Dickherber
...
...
ATTENTION BFL MINING NEWBS: Just got your Jalapenos in? Wondering how to get the most value for the least hassle? Give BitMinter a try! It's a smaller pool with a fair & low-fee payment method, lots of statistical feedback, and it's easier than EasyMiner! (Yes, we want your hashing power, but seriously, it IS the easiest pool to use! Sign up in seconds to try it!)
...
...
The idea that deflation causes hoarding (to any problematic degree) is a lie used to justify theft of value from your savings.
Kermee
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August 16, 2011, 06:11:36 AM
 #19

The estimate for the next drop seems much lower than I would have thought:

1565638.73312961

Anyone know if such a low estimate is normal for a while after a difficulty change, or has the network really lost that much hashing power?

There's not enough 'sample' data yet.  Even before the difficulty change, a lot of pools were having 'bad luck' and it's been continuing after the change so the average # of blocks being solved per hour was lower than 6 which would make it appear that a ton of hashing power has left.

I'd wait at least another 24 hours to actually get a 'gauge'...

Cheers,
Kermee

westkybitcoins
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August 16, 2011, 06:39:17 AM
 #20

The estimate for the next drop seems much lower than I would have thought:

1565638.73312961

Anyone know if such a low estimate is normal for a while after a difficulty change, or has the network really lost that much hashing power?

There's not enough 'sample' data yet.  Even before the difficulty change, a lot of pools were having 'bad luck' and it's been continuing after the change so the average # of blocks being solved per hour was lower than 6 which would make it appear that a ton of hashing power has left.

I'd wait at least another 24 hours to actually get a 'gauge'...

Cheers,
Kermee

Makes sense. For some reason
I thought the estimates were all based on the last X blocks, rather than the blocks since the last difficulty change.

Bitcoin is the ultimate freedom test. It tells you who is giving lip service and who genuinely believes in it.
...
...
In the future, books that summarize the history of money will have a line that says, “and then came bitcoin.” It is the economic singularity. And we are living in it now. - Ryan Dickherber
...
...
ATTENTION BFL MINING NEWBS: Just got your Jalapenos in? Wondering how to get the most value for the least hassle? Give BitMinter a try! It's a smaller pool with a fair & low-fee payment method, lots of statistical feedback, and it's easier than EasyMiner! (Yes, we want your hashing power, but seriously, it IS the easiest pool to use! Sign up in seconds to try it!)
...
...
The idea that deflation causes hoarding (to any problematic degree) is a lie used to justify theft of value from your savings.
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