KNC Neptune ROI predition thread

[Tehfiend]

I've been racking my braining trying to decide if I should invest in Neptunes and decided to pull the trigger this morning so I thought I would share the predictions I used and figured I would see if anybody else wants to chime and and tell me how inaccurate I am and/or share their predictions.

When I invest in mining hardware I am only concerned with the BTC ROI so I can estimate the price I am effectively buying BTC at to compare to current market value. I used this calculator to predict the following BTC yield and thus "exchange rate" based on average difficulty increase per jump/delivery month. It's a rough estimate since I timed the jumps towards the beginning of each month instead of the 1st but should be pretty close IMO. Let me know if you find any mistakes. The Neptune cost I used is price + my shipping + PSU cost.



I am going to predict that they will deliver my Neptune at the beginning of April with an average of 25% difficulty increase per jump as shown here. The biggest source of my uncertainty is how much hashrate will be hitting the network since I miscalculated that when investing in my Jupiter. It's going to be a big gamble but I believe in supporting the network via mining and feel the price will hold and KNC will continue to "over deliver". Now to decide how many more to buy

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[wpgdeez]

These will be efficient and will bring in more money than electricity costs for a long time if BTC stays at 1k+. I think it is a good long term investment if you want to get into mining and be anonymous with acquiring coins.

[Tehfiend]

These will be efficient and will bring in more money than electricity costs for a long time if BTC stays at 1k+. I think it is a good long term investment if you want to get into mining and be anonymous with acquiring coins.

While I agree, the point of my post is to compare investing directly in BTC with investing in a Neptune as well as gathering everybody's BTC ROI predictions so we can compare after the fact.

[wpgdeez]

I think it will ROI due to the efficiencies of the Chip. It will remain profitable for longer then say Asicminer gear so over time I do think it will recoup and then some. You can always play the mine for 20 days and flip it game which will put you up on top as well.

[Syke]

an average of 25% difficulty increase per month

Wow, that's so under-estimating the coming hashrate. The last time we had a slow month like that was nearly a year ago before ASICs shipped. It's going to be another year from now before we see a slow month like that.

[fragout]

yep there is a bucketload of KNC hardware coming any day now and thw Q1/Q2 is way too vague 4 me. At least the last KNC miners were promised for September (which they missed by a week or so) which made all the difference to making your money back. Only for the sharp increase in BTC price, every1 of us who bought would have lost.
I wish you well however but personally, I couldn't go through another 5 or 6 months of uncertainty

[NetTime]

The slightly inflated cost for Neptune took a biiig chunk out of the earnings from my early Jupiter.  Here's hoping KnC delivers again and we make money.

[railzand]

yes, brain says buy and hold BTC; gut says buy 10 Neptunes get one free

[Tehfiend]

I think it will ROI due to the efficiencies of the Chip. It will remain profitable for longer then say Asicminer gear so over time I do think it will recoup and then some. You can always play the mine for 20 days and flip it game which will put you up on top as well.

It sounds like you are still talking about fiat ROI, not BTC ROI. The BTC yield shown is not effected by efficiency. It's the total BTC the miner will produce in it's lifetime. It's very likely you will have a positive fiat ROI by investing both in a Neptune and directly in BTC. The goal is to determine which will have a higher ROI.

Wow, that's so under-estimating the coming hashrate. The last time we had a slow month like that was nearly a year ago before ASICs shipped. It's going to be another year from now before we see a slow month like that.

Don't forget that the increase is exponential so an average 25% increase/jump is is effectively a 26,500% increase over the next 25 jumps which based on my napkin math is something like 115,617 petahash/sec in 10 months. I think the last 10 months we've seen a 16,500% increase and that is during the introduction of ASIC miners and the last month looks like it might be under 25%. If you think that's a big under-estimate what do you think it will be in 10 months?

[Syke]

Don't forget that the increase is exponential so an average 25% increase/jump is is effectively a 26,500% increase over the next 25 jumps which based on my napkin math is something like 115,617 petahash/sec in 10 months. I think the last 10 months we've seen a 16,500% increase and that is during the introduction of ASIC miners and the last month looks like it might be under 25%. If you think that's a big under-estimate what do you think it will be in 10 months?

Did you mean 25% per adjustment? You said "25% difficulty increase per month". 25% per adjustment might be just fine. 25% per month is not.

[Kaliecious]

I think they are shotting for 3th but I have a funny feeling they going  to hit it close to 3.5 if you look at what they did with their last chip. and here is how I figure out my numbers. go to calculator input 10billion and run it for 12 months. what does it come out to.

[Tehfiend]

Don't forget that the increase is exponential so an average 25% increase/jump is is effectively a 26,500% increase over the next 25 jumps which based on my napkin math is something like 115,617 petahash/sec in 10 months. I think the last 10 months we've seen a 16,500% increase and that is during the introduction of ASIC miners and the last month looks like it might be under 25%. If you think that's a big under-estimate what do you think it will be in 10 months?

Did you mean 25% per adjustment? You said "25% difficulty increase per month". 25% per adjustment might be just fine. 25% per month is not.

Yeah that was a typo, fixed. All the other references said per jump as well as shown in the link but thanks. 25%/month would have insane yields

[Madazam]

I think they are shotting for 3th but I have a funny feeling they going  to hit it close to 3.5 if you look at what they did with their last chip. and here is how I figure out my numbers. go to calculator input 10billion and run it for 12 months. what does it come out to.

I think they may hit July 15, remember they said Q1/Q2....so add 15 days into that

[BTCNations]

Buy BTC, i think it will be more profitable.

[DTYJ]

It will be pretty much ROI if we are looking toward 2.7 billion difficulty rate this coming March April. With an Increase of average 23% every month, and that is exclusive of increase/decrease in bitcoin value

[Xialla]

Buy BTC, i think it will be more profitable.

of course.