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Author Topic: Why Bitcoin is ultimately doomed to fail (not today or tomorrow)  (Read 40630 times)
niothor
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November 29, 2013, 01:39:16 PM
 #21

I gave you a much better reason:
Everything will fail sometime , even bitcoin , but it's not that time yet Smiley

This logic is infallible in itself and you can always turn to history for examples proving your position as a last resort. But the question is still there. Is it really worth doing the same mistakes all over again?

How about you come up with something perfect,  GOD!?

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November 29, 2013, 01:53:17 PM
 #22

You clearly don't understand that 21 million bitcoins does not limit transactions at all.

Let's say it's the year 2300 and there's only 1 bitcoin left in the whole world. (All others have been lost due to wallets being lost etc.) this bitcoin would be worth 1 quadrillion dollars. A pizza would cost $500 due to inflation.

You could buy that pizza with 0.0000000000005 bitcoins

Also the reason people stepped away from gold as a currency was several reasons, including but not limited to:

1) gold is heavy.
2) goold coins where often scraped and molten to more gold, making the gold coin lighter than it should be, but careless people often accepted to coin for it's full value, this was later slowed down by adding markings on the sides of coins, so it's easier to see a coin has been tampered with.
3) it was easier and safer to leave your gold at the goldsmith/banker and pass the 'proof of deposit' around than it was to retrieve the gold from the goldsmith/banker, give the gold to the merchant, an do have the merchant put it back at the bank.

Bitcoins are not heavy at all
Bitcoins are easy to transfer (much faster and easier than most currencies, especially if you consider international trades, not to mention cheaper as well)
Bitcoins can not be tampered with
Bitcoins are inflation resistant.

So, moving from bitcoin to paper bitcoins makes not much sense at all, moving from bitcoin to a banking scam is even more unlikely.
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November 29, 2013, 01:58:02 PM
Last edit: November 29, 2013, 05:17:17 PM by deisik
 #23

Perhaps I should make my argument more clear.  The implied assumption is that the evolution will go:

Bitcoins -> paper Bitcoins -> central bank

I'm saying it's much more likely to be:

Bitcoins -> paper Bitcoins -> Bitcoins

Actually, what you say should be written as following:

Bitcoins -> paper Bitcoins by all banks (causes inflation and bank-runs) -> paper Bitcoins by Central Bank (establishment of gold Bitcoin standard)

And after that we begin running into ever deepening economic crises which finally bring about dismantling of the Bitcoin standard (see the Great Depression), so the last step will be:

paper Bitcoins by Central Bank (causes deflation and incessant economic crises) -> fiat by Central Bank (Bitcoin standard dismantled)

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deisik
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November 29, 2013, 02:04:40 PM
 #24

You clearly don't understand that 21 million bitcoins does not limit transactions at all.

Let's say it's the year 2300 and there's only 1 bitcoin left in the whole world. (All others have been lost due to wallets being lost etc.) this bitcoin would be worth 1 quadrillion dollars. A pizza would cost $500 due to inflation.

You could buy that pizza with 0.0000000000005 bitcoins

The issue I raised is not about limited transactions, and it is not about arithmetics either...

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November 29, 2013, 02:30:47 PM
Last edit: November 29, 2013, 03:04:53 PM by deisik
 #25

Also the reason people stepped away from gold as a currency was several reasons, including but not limited to:

1) gold is heavy.
2) goold coins where often scraped and molten to more gold, making the gold coin lighter than it should be, but careless people often accepted to coin for it's full value, this was later slowed down by adding markings on the sides of coins, so it's easier to see a coin has been tampered with.
3) it was easier and safer to leave your gold at the goldsmith/banker and pass the 'proof of deposit' around than it was to retrieve the gold from the goldsmith/banker, give the gold to the merchant, an do have the merchant put it back at the bank.

Yes, those were the reasons why the gold standard was established. In this monetary system government guarantees a fixed exchange rate to the currency and authorities agree to sell you some gold on demand at a fixed price in exchange for currency. Adherence to gold standard provoked a train of economic crises and depressions culminating in the Great Depression (and war in Europe), which led to its abandoning in the end...

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deisik
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November 29, 2013, 02:33:19 PM
Last edit: November 29, 2013, 02:47:01 PM by deisik
 #26

Bitcoins are not heavy at all
Bitcoins are easy to transfer (much faster and easier than most currencies, especially if you consider international trades, not to mention cheaper as well)
Bitcoins can not be tampered with
Bitcoins are inflation resistant.

So, moving from bitcoin to paper bitcoins makes not much sense at all, moving from bitcoin to a banking scam is even more unlikely.

What you suggest is setting a new Bitcoin standard. It will inevitably fail for just the same reasons the gold standard had failed...

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deisik
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November 29, 2013, 02:45:03 PM
 #27

So by decentrilization you mean different banks issuing money. I guess we are still in a decentralized economy then since different nations / organizations / banks are still issuing money. Guess what. No.

You could "issue" your own IOUs which would constitute your own "decentralized" currency. As I have earlier said in one of my posts somewhere around here, in medieval times you could bring an ingot of gold to the mint and have official coins minted from it, so there is nothing new in "decentralization", which you apparently promote as one of the virtues of Bitcoin...

In any case, decentralization will be of little, if any, help for Bitcoin. Gold was "decentralized" too, so no difference here...

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November 29, 2013, 02:53:13 PM
 #28

One problem with the OP's logic is that during the 'free banking era' many different banks were issuing 'dollars' that in theory were supposed to trade equally.  But due to some banks being more sound than others, some notes were manifestly worth more than face value and some manifestly less.  Theory and practice differed according to Gresham's law, leading eventually to the dissolution of that system as a non-working mistake.

If national and privately-issued (crypto-) currencies are allowed to float freely against each other, then Gresham's law does not apply.
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November 29, 2013, 02:57:21 PM
 #29

This logic is infallible in itself and you can always turn to history for examples proving your position as a last resort. But the question is still there. Is it really worth doing the same mistakes all over again?

How about you come up with something perfect,  GOD!?

Surely, you're confusing me with somebody else. Somebody who has been told not to write his shit here... Cheesy
Nothing is perfect, but at least we could try not to make the same mistakes (even this would be a huge step ahead)!

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deisik
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November 29, 2013, 03:02:14 PM
 #30

One problem with the OP's logic is that during the 'free banking era' many different banks were issuing 'dollars' that in theory were supposed to trade equally.  But due to some banks being more sound than others, some notes were manifestly worth more than face value and some manifestly less.  Theory and practice differed according to Gresham's law, leading eventually to the dissolution of that system as a non-working mistake.

If national and privately-issued (crypto-) currencies are allowed to float freely against each other, then Gresham's law does not apply.

I didn't understand what's wrong with my logic about "free banking era" (actually, I just described what was happening back then), but could you provide cogent reasons as to why Gresham's law won't be applicable if national and privately-issued currencies were allowed to float freely against each other?

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November 29, 2013, 03:18:54 PM
 #31

Gresham's law happens when you have currencies of different value, but some idiot is accepting them both at the same value.  (or some idiot nation is demanding via law that *everybody* be such an idiot).

It naturally happens that the idiots then wind up with the currency that has the lesser value, whilst all of the higher-valued currency goes elsewhere, where non-idiots will give you more stuff for it.  So 'bad money drives out good' refers to a nation that demands that (say) a debased coin with half the silver content be considered 'the same' as an earlier coin that was substantially more silver.  If people can get more stuff for the silver money outside of that country than they can for the debased coin, then all of the silver money is 'driven out' of the country.
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November 29, 2013, 03:55:51 PM
 #32

So by decentrilization you mean different banks issuing money. I guess we are still in a decentralized economy then since different nations / organizations / banks are still issuing money. Guess what. No.

You could "issue" your own IOUs which would constitute your own "decentralized" currency. As I have earlier said in one of my posts somewhere around here, in medieval times you could bring an ingot of gold to the mint and have official coins minted from it, so there is nothing new in "decentralization", which you apparently promote as one of the virtues of Bitcoin...

In any case, decentralization will be of little, if any, help for Bitcoin. Gold was "decentralized" too, so no difference here...

It seems that you struggle to understand what decentralized means.
If a bank, an institute, an organization, a country of even me issue money then that's not a decentralized economy. Bitcoins are issued by themself. There is absolutely noone issuing them. If you can't see how revolutionary is that then i guess it can't be helped anyway.

In a way you can see gold as something decentralized and bitcoin has elements inspired by gold anyway. Some even call it gold 2.0.
Gold though isn't a currency and bitcoin has all the qualities of gold and on top of that adds all the characteristics of a currency.
And don't forget something. Gold is around as money or to store wealth for around 6000 years  Tongue
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November 29, 2013, 04:18:43 PM
 #33

They say that right now there are about 12 million bitcoins in circulation or having been stashed away, and eventually the production of new coins will stop, so only around 21 million of them will be available, and no more... Now, what will happen next if it ever comes to that, and Bitcoin is finally accepted as a legal tender?

I think that nothing life-changing is actually going to happen. We have already been there. And by there I mean a time period in the 19th century, commonly referred to as a Free Banking Era when banks could issue bank notes against specie (gold and silver coins). It is during these times when the term inflation began entering into widespread usage and emerging in literature, though not as a reference to price changes but as something pointing to disproportions between paper representing money and the amount of specie actually available in the bank

So, this time instead of gold we will have Bitcoin (which will be hoarded as per Gresham's law) and all kinds of "paper" derivatives inevitably entering the circulation as a means of exchange. These "papers" allegedly backed up by Bitcoin will in fact leave behind them only inflation, even despite Bitcoin intrinsic deflationary nature...

And welcome back to fiat!

I'm not sure about this. If you borrow fiat from a bank to make a purchase, neither you nor the seller expect a suitcase of notes. You both want a bank credit. The issue of bank credits without any underlying reserves is what then enables FRB.

But if you borrow BTC from a bank to make a purchase, the seller will expect to receive the actual BTC, not a BTC bank credit. So the scope for FRB is far more limited.


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November 29, 2013, 04:20:46 PM
Last edit: November 29, 2013, 05:21:43 PM by deisik
 #34

Gresham's law happens when you have currencies of different value, but some idiot is accepting them both at the same value.  (or some idiot nation is demanding via law that *everybody* be such an idiot).

It naturally happens that the idiots then wind up with the currency that has the lesser value, whilst all of the higher-valued currency goes elsewhere, where non-idiots will give you more stuff for it.  So 'bad money drives out good' refers to a nation that demands that (say) a debased coin with half the silver content be considered 'the same' as an earlier coin that was substantially more silver.  If people can get more stuff for the silver money outside of that country than they can for the debased coin, then all of the silver money is 'driven out' of the country.

Thanks for your explanation of what Gresham's law is about, but I still see no reason why Gresham's law won't be working if free flow of national and crypto currencies is allowed. If a national currency inflates (something that you would expect from a fiat currency, say, dollar) while an alternative currency deflates (such as Bitcoin) then this will be an obvious case to apply Gresham's law principle here, i.e. deflating currency (Bitcoin) will be stashed away whereas inflating currency (dollar) will be used in exchange whenever possible...

And you didn't explain what was wrong with my logic regarding "free banking era". Please make yourself clear

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November 29, 2013, 04:36:19 PM
 #35

It seems that you struggle to understand what decentralized means.
If a bank, an institute, an organization, a country of even me issue money then that's not a decentralized economy. Bitcoins are issued by themself. There is absolutely noone issuing them. If you can't see how revolutionary is that then i guess it can't be helped anyway.

If nobody mines bitcoins, there will be none, period. I'm not going to get into a petty argument about what decentralization means (actually you're catching at every possibility to confuse issues). Decentralization, whatever you may next mean by it, won't make  Bitcoin any better, since it doesn't prevent its accumulation. Go and see its present distribution between owners...


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November 29, 2013, 04:40:08 PM
 #36

Gresham's law happens when you have currencies of different value, but some idiot is accepting them both at the same value.  ...

...
But isn't this already happening with the arbitrage going on between exchanges?

(I dont always get new reply notifications, pls send a pm when you think it has happened)

Wanna gimme some BTC/BCH for any or no reason? 1FmvtS66LFh6ycrXDwKRQTexGJw4UWiqDX Smiley

The more you believe in Bitcoin, and the more you show you do to other people, the faster the real value will soar!

Do you like mmmBananas?!
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November 29, 2013, 04:57:14 PM
Last edit: November 29, 2013, 05:23:27 PM by deisik
 #37

But if you borrow BTC from a bank to make a purchase, the seller will expect to receive the actual BTC, not a BTC bank credit. So the scope for FRB is far more limited.

You won't borrow BTC from a bank, the bank will issue a credit card with which you will pay for your purchases. Whether this bank (or any other bank for that matter) actually has all the BTCs it has credited you with is another question... So, unless there is a Central Bank which has set the economy on a Bitcoin standard (with all ensuing dramatic consequences), banks will still be able to create more money (virtual BTCs) than there are bitcoins out there...

If you agree with this, then the fixed supply nature of Bitcoin becomes unnecessary and detrimental here

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November 29, 2013, 05:16:54 PM
 #38

Gresham's law happens when you have currencies of different value, but some idiot is accepting them both at the same value.  ...
But isn't this already happening with the arbitrage going on between exchanges?

Yes. Exchanges trading different amounts of fiat for bitcoins (difference in price) are in this scenario valuing *fiat currency* differently, because it can buy more and less bitcoin in different places.  The arbitragers are the people enforcing Gresham's law by selling bitcoin at a higher price in Japan then 'driving out' the money they used to buy them with to (say) the US, where they buy more bitcoin than they sold. 

This is no different from a merchant who can buy an amphora of wine in Rome a couple thousand years ago for the new debased currency doing that, then taking the wine and selling it in Gaul where they value the debased currency according to its real silver value. He trades it for TWICE as much 'bad' money as he paid for it.

Repeat for as long as the idiots in Rome will take the debased coin at the same rate as real silver, and multiply by a thousand merchants. The net effect is the 'bad' money or debased currency all winds up in Rome while the 'good' money or pure silver all winds up in Gaul.

Now consider Bitcoins here to be the 'wine' from the above example and substitute "regulated and manipulated exchange rates" for "valuing the same money differently in different places" and the above is what's happening.
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November 29, 2013, 05:21:06 PM
 #39

I think that nothing life-changing is actually going to happen. We have already been there.

While what you say sounds logical can you point out where in your "been there logic" things were decentralized?

Actually, they were completely decentralized "there". When it all started back then, any bank could issue their own "money". Bills of exchange, bank notes, certificates, depositary receipts, etc ad nausea are all examples of "private" money. So you had many options open how to lose your gold to pick up from..

Or you could just keep your gold and were immune to the inflationary effect.  Of course paying with gold was difficult, keeping your gold safe was also difficult.  Bitcoin however makes paying direct with Bitcoin easy.  There is no need to put you Bitcoins in some bank which will issue fiat currency using it as a reserve.  Of course you are free to CHOOSE to do so but others are free to not.  If these fiat issued currencies end up inflationary well it will make people less likely to choose that option.

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November 29, 2013, 05:29:49 PM
 #40

Or you could just keep your gold and were immune to the inflationary effect.  Of course paying with gold was difficult, keeping your gold safe was also difficult.  Bitcoin however makes paying direct with Bitcoin easy.  There is no need to put you Bitcoins in some bank which will issue fiat currency using it as a reserve.  Of course you are free to CHOOSE to do so but others are free to not.  If these fiat issued currencies end up inflationary well it will make people less likely to choose that option.

You're right, but in that case you would be losing interest which you could potentially earn by depositing your gold in the bank. The same holds true for Bitcoin... Nothing important has actually changed since those times, greed is still here!!!

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