[BEARS ONLY] Predict the next big crash <600

[pand70]

Today we got the confirmation that the market is in corrective wave C (I shouldn't have written 'capitulation' for the whole wave C, I know).
It took several days longer than I expected, and right now I can't tell where exactly in wave C the market is, probably in the middle.

Today we had the news that baidu no longer accepts bitcoins. Nothing more nothing less and more important no waves.

News can only trigger large market moves earlier (waves, sub-waves), but those happen even in the absence of news.

No matter how hard you try to convince yourself that bitcoin price follows some waves, today it's a flash crash caused by bad news.

In a bull market every news seem bullish. In a bear market every news seem bearish.

so far all the news r bearish since 3 days but bitcoin still at $900

900 down from 1250. And the news wasn't that bearish after all. More like mixed reactions from the bank of china notice.

[1714806450]

1714806450

[1714806450]

1714806450

[pera]

Forget about "big crashes", at least not thanks to MtGox:
http://www.malwaretech.com/2013/11/mtgox-nearly-breaks-bitcoinagain.html

<@MagicalTux> very large sell order matching too many buy orders, causing the security system to stop the trade and rollback anything that was caused by it

[Ibian]

It wasn't that long ago that I bought at 700 and thought I got screwed on the price. These momentary dips only matters to people who think they can make a profit buying and selling and very recent buyers. Nothing new going on.

[N4D3B337Z]

It wasn't that long ago that I bought at 700 and thought I got screwed on the price. These momentary dips only matters to people who think they can make a profit buying and selling and very recent buyers. Nothing new going on.

I hope you're correct this is my first crash.
I bought in @ 750.
Sold half @ 1150.
Now I'm watching the other half of my investment freefall.
I can't convince myself to under sell my coins.
Am I a bear or a bull? Im from chicago so im a fan of both.

[pand70]

The volatility of bitcoin is over the top. 5 days ago i thought of 600 as something impossible and now i 'll be happy if the price stabilizes around there.

[beetcoin]

i guess you can't really say that there is no authority that controls bitcoin.. it's the exchanges and pump and dumpers who control where it goes, or doesnt.

[N4D3B337Z]

It wasn't that long ago that I bought at 700 and thought I got screwed on the price. These momentary dips only matters to people who think they can make a profit buying and selling and very recent buyers. Nothing new going on.

I hope you're correct this is my first crash.
I bought in @ 750.
Sold half @ 1150.
Now I'm watching the other half of my investment freefall.
I can't convince myself to under sell my coins.
Am I a bear or a bull? Im from chicago so im a fan of both.

If your going to suffer a coronary every time you have an unrealized loss, you should probably sell now, it will save you lots of stress.  The pattern here is easy to figure out, those who have held for more than 6 months have never lost money.  Ever.  Those who get dis-illusioned by unrealized losses and shoot for greed and lower re-entry often lose the most out of anyone when their original position would have paid off 10 times higher.  When it goes to $3,000/BTC are you going to care if you bought at 750 or 500? Say you bought 10 coins @ 750 = 7500 .. you sold 5 @ 1150 = 5750 .. 7500 - 5750 = 1750 / 5 = 350$ .. you really think your going to get a cheaper entry price?  Best you can do if watching the very short term is just buy it on the way down to dollar average the cost of building your supply back up and then your gains will be realized in actual BTC gains or just buying back in... say we reach 1587.59 in the next two weeks..

Smart man I was thinking that but GREED is like a common trait amongst humanity. Well, @ least Americans and Chinese maybe.

[N4D3B337Z]

The volatility of bitcoin is over the top. 5 days ago i thought of 600 as something impossible and now i 'll be happy if the price stabilizes around there.

I share this sentiment.

[Beta-coiner1]

Not a Bear or Bull,but I still find it surprising BTC has retained its current value during this cycle.

[pand70]

Not a Bear or Bull,but I still find it surprising BTC has retained its current value during this cycle.

I 'll share the same surprise if the price stabilizes or even better if the downtrend gets reversed. For now i 'm still kinda scared. 

[beetcoin]

Not a Bear or Bull,but I still find it surprising BTC has retained its current value during this cycle.

I 'll share the same surprise if the price stabilizes or even better if the downtrend gets reversed. For now i 'm still kinda scared.  

we're all scared.. but fuck it, i'm all in. i don't think i'm going to pretend like i know what's going to happen anymore.. maybe it'll go below $500, or maybe it won't. there's no way i can know who the manipulators are and aren't, and what they are planning.

[pand70]

Not a Bear or Bull,but I still find it surprising BTC has retained its current value during this cycle.

I 'll share the same surprise if the price stabilizes or even better if the downtrend gets reversed. For now i 'm still kinda scared.  

we're all scared.. but fuck it, i'm all in. i don't think i'm going to pretend like i know what's going to happen anymore.. maybe it'll go below $500, or maybe it won't. there's no way i can know who the manipulators are and aren't, and what they are planning.

My guess is that even manipulators (If there are any) got surprised from the recent china notice 

[outofservice]

Not a Bear or Bull,but I still find it surprising BTC has retained its current value during this cycle.

I'm not singling you out but I'm trying to understand how a lot of ppl think i'ts going to drop lower. I've read many comments from others like what you wrote.
This is a very unique opportunity that really can't be compared to anything else. It has it's own rules and they are being written right in front of our eyes.

That fact that it retained its current value shows it's strength, resilance and demand; would I be wrong to say that this is no longer speculation but that it's full-on legitimate? ...And that the bad news really didn't make it "crash" but the dip was due more to Panic Sells?  ....not to get off track or to sound like a conspirator but this all looks like it was done with purpose, maybe so gov's could buy up loads of it for cheap. To try and control it? Out of fear the powers that be won't get their piece of the pie? who knows...

Back on track.... With all that in mind and it's ability to beat bad news and stay in the 700 range (barely dipping to 600), how can ppl think it's going to 500-400?

I'd be a happy boy if it got that low so I could buy a bunch at that price. I was one of those that got in just under 1k and if I could grab a few to help level cost... well that would be my x-mas gift!

I'm kicking myself for thinking I need sleep.. I missed out when it hit 600. Ahhggg!

Can anyone educate me on how or why this will drop lower? How low?

[emanymton]

Not a Bear or Bull,but I still find it surprising BTC has retained its current value during this cycle.

I'm not singling you out but I'm trying to understand how a lot of ppl think i'ts going to drop lower. I've read many comments from others like what you wrote.
This is a very unique opportunity that really can't be compared to anything else. It has it's own rules and they are being written right in front of our eyes.

That fact that it retained its current value shows it's strength, resilance and demand; would I be wrong to say that this is no longer speculation but that it's full-on legitimate? ...And that the bad news really didn't make it "crash" but the dip was due more to Panic Sells?  ....not to get off track or to sound like a conspirator but this all looks like it was done with purpose, maybe so gov's could buy up loads of it for cheap. To try and control it? Out of fear the powers that be won't get their piece of the pie? who knows...

Back on track.... With all that in mind and it's ability to beat bad news and stay in the 700 range (barely dipping to 600), how can ppl think it's going to 500-400?

I'd be a happy boy if it got that low so I could buy a bunch at that price. I was one of those that got in just under 1k and if I could grab a few to help level cost... well that would be my x-mas gift!

I'm kicking myself for thinking I need sleep.. I missed out when it hit 600. Ahhggg!

Can anyone educate me on how or why this will drop lower? How low?

history

[Tzupy]

In a couple of hours the scenario saying that the bottom was at 576$ (Gox price) is going to be tested.
A sub-wave may be ending, and if the price drop will be large, then more drops will follow the next days.

[Gemminyc]

i guess you can't really say that there is no authority that controls bitcoin.. it's the exchanges and pump and dumpers who control where it goes, or doesnt.

But no one can force me to sell my mined Bitcoins for a price I doesnt like, so I waiting with the sell