[BEARS ONLY] Predict the next big crash <600

[ajax3592]

Alright all you bears out there come out of your hibernation.
When do you predict the crash to levels below $600 is going to happen.

[ElectricMucus]

The date of the top or when it trades at 600 or the bottom?

[ajax3592]

Well precisely in how many weeks it will reach its bottom (~500-600)

[ElectricMucus]

Lets say march 9th, If the top was just at or below gold parity.

But that's no crash, a real crash would be after that if the price fails to recover to previous levels. And that's just the scenario without a flashcrash, which can happen also.
A flashcrash is impossible to predict.

[notme]

Well precisely in how many weeks it will reach its bottom (~500-600)

Wow, how do you know the bottom already?

[Involution]

After all this Media Hype, i don't expect it drops under 600 anymore, if so.. i would buy so much i can 

i think the rally here will bottom at 900/1000$ after it falls from the top of 1600/1800$

[pand70]

600$ will be a huge crash. Huge like the biggest after april's bubble right? Not going to happen.

[Crazy]

After all this Media Hype, i don't expect it drops under 600 anymore, if so.. i would buy so much i can  

i think the rally here will bottom at 900/1000$ after it falls from the top of 1600/1800$

To be honest I didn't expect to see $60-70 again after it hit $260, but it happened. So I wouldn't rule anything out.

600$ will be a huge crash. Huge like the biggest after april's bubble right? Not going to happen.

No that wouldn't be as big as April.

[Involution]

After all this Media Hype, i don't expect it drops under 600 anymore, if so.. i would buy so much i can  

i think the rally here will bottom at 900/1000$ after it falls from the top of 1600/1800$

To be honest I didn't expect to see $60-70 again after it hit $260, but it happened. So I wouldn't rule anything out.

600$ will be a huge crash. Huge like the biggest after april's bubble right? Not going to happen.

No that wouldn't be as big as April.

Yes i agree with you, but have a look and compare both rallys. the last rally happened a week/two. This rally now during since mid october and i think we haven't seen the top yet. Because this ongoing stability trend nord and all the new people get in, and now china, i don't expect such a drop anymore. But who knows..

[eindbaas]

It only drops when an altcoin takes over. And when it does I'm even more rich. 

[freethink2013]

Probably day 1 of the nuclear winter...whenever that it.

[pera]

for you my fellow bears who are waiting for the big happening, watch this gif showing the price since the beginning:
http://imgur.com/SPySYV5

bitcoin historically always to the original price after a rally, the question is: are you going to buy after the crash? and how much?  

[emanymton]

for you my fellow bears who are waiting for the big happening, watch this gif showing the price since the beginning:
http://imgur.com/SPySYV5

bitcoin historically always to the original price after a rally, the question is: are you going to buy after the crash? and how much?  

In the past it has, but this time it's a new paradigm 

[ElectricMucus]

get out

[Crazy]

for you my fellow bears who are waiting for the big happening, watch this gif showing the price since the beginning:
http://imgur.com/SPySYV5

Wow. Awesome perspective! Was this simulated? Wondering if someone is really screen capping the price this often?

[beetcoin]

After all this Media Hype, i don't expect it drops under 600 anymore, if so.. i would buy so much i can  

i think the rally here will bottom at 900/1000$ after it falls from the top of 1600/1800$

To be honest I didn't expect to see $60-70 again after it hit $260, but it happened. So I wouldn't rule anything out.

600$ will be a huge crash. Huge like the biggest after april's bubble right? Not going to happen.

No that wouldn't be as big as April.

we crashed from 900's to 500is just weeks ago too.

[Sitarow]

Alright all you bears out there come out of your hibernation.
When do you predict the crash to levels below $600 is going to happen.

1800

[Miz4r]

The next big crash is hard to predict in advance, but there are most likely two things that could trigger this crash:

#1 double exponential increase in price, if bitcoin goes from 1200 to 2500 within a couple of days for example a big crash will be imminent
#2 bad news, like China closing exchanges or banks all over the world starting to ban bitcoin related businesses once they truly recognize the threat of bitcoin to their own existence.

#1 is easy to see coming, #2 however will catch most of us by surprise and will lead to a nasty flash crash the likes we have never seen before. Will be a good buying opportunity though.

[adsdas]

In a few hours

[fleabag]

It will never go down. it will keep going up for eternity. no one will ever lose money. thats blasphemy talking about it going down.

[accord01]

Here's the thing with bears, their general observation is right; it will go down some time.  But they're too confident in their predictions.  By the time that it does go down, the price will have been at 4x their expected price, and the train will have been way too far from the station.

For example, sure there will be a correction in this rally, but it's likely the correction is coming a lot higher than the bear expects.

[nrd525]

It will crash within 12 hours of the next 24 hour period with an increase of 35-40%.

[Crazy]

Noticing BTCChina volume is building for the day and it's bearish volume so, hold tight.

[ajax3592]

It will never go down. it will keep going up for eternity. no one will ever lose money. thats blasphemy talking about it going down.

how can you be so confident about that mate? the day/week traders from china and other countries at some point would want to book profits. A correction is imminent, anything that goes up comes down even apple 

[JTrain_51]

Get out was one of the comments lol

I don't think there is going to be a crash if there is it will be going down to 8 or 900

[ablewasiereisawelba]

[Prediction] We never see $600 again.

[goxed]

http://bitcoincharts.com/charts/bitstampUSD#rg360zigWeeklyztgSza1gSMAzm1g7za2gEMAzm2g14zxzi1gUOzi2gMACDzi3gRSIzi4gCCIzvzl

All leading indicators are changing direction. A huge dump may be coming.

[ajax3592]

BEARS!!! TONIGHT WE DINE IN HELL!  

and, tomorrow maybe at pizza-hut

[Crazy]

The way I feel in the bathroom after eating at pizza hut, I'd figure there ain't much difference.

[notme]

It will never go down. it will keep going up for eternity. no one will ever lose money. thats blasphemy talking about it going down.

how can you be so confident about that mate? the day/week traders from china and other countries at some point would want to book profits. A correction is imminent, anything that goes up comes down even apple 

Your sarcasm detector needs to be taken in for repairs.

[Ibian]

I'm a bear! Never gonna happen!

[Ibian]

After all this Media Hype, i don't expect it drops under 600 anymore, if so.. i would buy so much i can  

i think the rally here will bottom at 900/1000$ after it falls from the top of 1600/1800$

To be honest I didn't expect to see $60-70 again after it hit $260, but it happened. So I wouldn't rule anything out.

600$ will be a huge crash. Huge like the biggest after april's bubble right? Not going to happen.

No that wouldn't be as big as April.

we crashed from 900's to 500is just weeks ago too.

Flawed perspective. 900 was an anomaly, not the norm.

[Crazy]

To be fair, this whole run up to $1200 might be an anomaly too, and we'll be back to where we were a month ago. :/

Also I've seen you posting around, you're no bear. Hehe

[Ibian]

To be fair, this whole run up to $1200 might be an anomaly too, and we'll be back to where we were a month ago. :/

Also I've seen you posting around, you're no bear. Hehe

Way I see it, we are in the middle of the latest correction right now. They are becoming ever smaller as bitcoin grows more stable.

[Crazy]

Unless you can determine how the Chinese market will settle, there's no way you, me or anyone else can say what will happen. There's about 150 BTC between where we are and $1100 USD Gox, and 2800 BTC to $1000 (BTCChina depths). Both of which can disappear very rapidly. Current valuation is very fragile and volatile.

[Ibian]

The chinese are not stupid. That's the fundamental. Price might swing a bit for a while, but the trend is still up.

[BitchicksHusband]

And no mention in this thread of $1233-$1063?  There's your 13% crash, bears.  Enjoy.  I really do hope you took advantage this weekend.  Maybe we'll dip a little more this Sunday before shooting up tomorrow or especially on Tuesday (since that's usually the weekend pattern).

[Tzupy]

Uber-bulls, this is a BEARS ONLY thread, you don't belong here, so get out!
And this small correction was just the prelude to the crash, all market indicators show really bad.

[Koekiemonster]

In a few hours

This. Sell! Sell!

[N4D3B337Z]

In a few hours

Looks like u were right

[bitleif]

So that just happened. Anyone hear the pop?

[windjc]

So that just happened. Anyone hear the pop?

It was more like a slow leak that turned into stream. 

[hieroglyph]

I'm surprised there aren't more bears on here.  I suspect a price drop but not very much and price is moving up last I checked.  Bears are always entertaining so lets here some predictions!

[Ibian]

And this small correction was just the prelude to the crash, all market indicators show really bad.

Like which ones?

[bitleif]

My biggest lesson this time around was "put in buy orders" when you're anticipating a correction. I sold out at the right time but didn't really profit much from it since the action happened too fast.

I do believe we will get another "crash", but it might as well be from $2000-$3000 down to here.

[nrd525]

I'm thinking if the Bitcoinica liquidation goes through and they sell 10,000+ BTC (to return everyone's assets in USD) that could trigger something.  Rumor is they are making progress.  Though this might take a very long time before it happens.

[Tzupy]

And this small correction was just the prelude to the crash, all market indicators show really bad.

Like which ones?

Indicators like stochastic RSI, money flow index and MACD looked bad, and the ~300$ price drop that followed confirmed my post.
But it wasn't the April 10th style of crash that I was expecting, this market is different, most sellers hold tight for now.
If several hours from now, or even tomorrow 3rd December (if volume stays low) there will start another 300$ - 400$ price drop,
then the scenario that I find most probable now, that the market has started capitulation, will be confirmed.
The total drop from 1242$ to 840$ was about 30%, while the drop at the end of a supporting sub-wave has usually been about 10%,
so that drop fits much better with the first large drop of capitulation than with another type.

[Ibian]

And this small correction was just the prelude to the crash, all market indicators show really bad.

Like which ones?

Indicators like stochastic RSI, money flow index and MACD looked bad, and the ~300$ price drop that followed confirmed my post.
But it wasn't the April 10th style of crash that I was expecting, this market is different, most sellers hold tight for now.
If several hours from now, or even tomorrow 3rd December (if volume stays low) there will start another 300$ - 400$ price drop,
then the scenario that I find most probable now, that the market has started capitulation, will be confirmed.
The total drop from 1242$ to 840$ was about 30%, while the drop at the end of a supporting sub-wave has usually been about 10%,
so that drop fits much better with the first large drop of capitulation than with another type.

Okay, stock speak. Nice. What are the real world indicators? Is China pulling out? Did congress revert their recent opinions? Fatal flaws in the code discovered? What?

[pand70]

I don't know if bitcoin will evetually crash but the truth is that it has lost its upward dynamic. My bet is that it's going down but not a crash of course.

[donjoe]

I'd like to predict things, but that stupid Google Trends thing seems to always start lagging by 4-5 days just when things are getting interesting with Bitcoin. It did the same in April.

Anyway, I too am still expecting a downward trend, though by the looks of things this time it's not going to be a sudden crash but some kind of jittery and fidgety long-term fizzle, which is probably better in terms of maintaining the confidence of most newcomers - we don't want flashcrash type evolutions that scare the newbies away because we want their money after all.

[klovishey]

I'm surprised there aren't more bears on here.  I suspect a price drop but not very much and price is moving up last I checked.  Bears are always entertaining so lets here some predictions!

It means only one thing, a crash is about to come! Get ready to buy cheap I guess

[pand70]

I'd like to predict things, but that stupid Google Trends thing seems to always start lagging by 4-5 days just when things are getting interesting with Bitcoin. It did the same in April.

Anyway, I too am still expecting a downward trend, though by the looks of things this time it's not going to be a sudden crash but some kind of jittery and fidgety long-term fizzle, which is probably better in terms of maintaining the confidence of most newcomers - we don't want flashcrash type evolutions that scare the newbies away because we want their money after all.

A downward trend will trigger flash crashes and flash rises. The market depth is not enough for things to be stable.

[JimboToronto]

Bears are always entertaining

[Ibian]

Is it really too much to ask for to have the doom and gloom backed up with something of a little substance?

I voted no to the euro all 3 times. I did so based on the fact that nobody who talked about how great it would be for us could explain why. I'm seeing the same thing here. Nobody can explain why we are about to crash, but many people are certain that we are. And I call bullshit. Explain your position bears.

[ElectricMucus]

again, get out

[Tzupy]

And this small correction was just the prelude to the crash, all market indicators show really bad.

Like which ones?

Indicators like stochastic RSI, money flow index and MACD looked bad, and the ~300$ price drop that followed confirmed my post.
But it wasn't the April 10th style of crash that I was expecting, this market is different, most sellers hold tight for now.
If several hours from now, or even tomorrow 3rd December (if volume stays low) there will start another 300$ - 400$ price drop,
then the scenario that I find most probable now, that the market has started capitulation, will be confirmed.
The total drop from 1242$ to 840$ was about 30%, while the drop at the end of a supporting sub-wave has usually been about 10%,
so that drop fits much better with the first large drop of capitulation than with another type.

Today we got the confirmation that the market is in corrective wave C (I shouldn't have written 'capitulation' for the whole wave C, I know).
It took several days longer than I expected, and right now I can't tell where exactly in wave C the market is, probably in the middle.

[pand70]

Today we got the confirmation that the market is in corrective wave C (I shouldn't have written 'capitulation' for the whole wave C, I know).
It took several days longer than I expected, and right now I can't tell where exactly in wave C the market is, probably in the middle.

Today we had the news that baidu no longer accepts bitcoins. Nothing more nothing less and more important no waves.

[Tzupy]

Today we got the confirmation that the market is in corrective wave C (I shouldn't have written 'capitulation' for the whole wave C, I know).
It took several days longer than I expected, and right now I can't tell where exactly in wave C the market is, probably in the middle.

Today we had the news that baidu no longer accepts bitcoins. Nothing more nothing less and more important no waves.

News can only trigger large market moves earlier (waves, sub-waves), but those happen even in the absence of news.

[pand70]

Today we got the confirmation that the market is in corrective wave C (I shouldn't have written 'capitulation' for the whole wave C, I know).
It took several days longer than I expected, and right now I can't tell where exactly in wave C the market is, probably in the middle.

Today we had the news that baidu no longer accepts bitcoins. Nothing more nothing less and more important no waves.

News can only trigger large market moves earlier (waves, sub-waves), but those happen even in the absence of news.

No matter how hard you try to convince yourself that bitcoin price follows some waves, today it's a flash crash caused by bad news.

[GigaCoin]

Today we got the confirmation that the market is in corrective wave C (I shouldn't have written 'capitulation' for the whole wave C, I know).
It took several days longer than I expected, and right now I can't tell where exactly in wave C the market is, probably in the middle.

Today we had the news that baidu no longer accepts bitcoins. Nothing more nothing less and more important no waves.

News can only trigger large market moves earlier (waves, sub-waves), but those happen even in the absence of news.

No matter how hard you try to convince yourself that bitcoin price follows some waves, today it's a flash crash caused by bad news.

In a bull market every news seem bullish. In a bear market every news seem bearish.

so far all the news r bearish since 3 days but bitcoin still at $900

[pand70]

Today we got the confirmation that the market is in corrective wave C (I shouldn't have written 'capitulation' for the whole wave C, I know).
It took several days longer than I expected, and right now I can't tell where exactly in wave C the market is, probably in the middle.

Today we had the news that baidu no longer accepts bitcoins. Nothing more nothing less and more important no waves.

News can only trigger large market moves earlier (waves, sub-waves), but those happen even in the absence of news.

No matter how hard you try to convince yourself that bitcoin price follows some waves, today it's a flash crash caused by bad news.

In a bull market every news seem bullish. In a bear market every news seem bearish.

so far all the news r bearish since 3 days but bitcoin still at $900

900 down from 1250. And the news wasn't that bearish after all. More like mixed reactions from the bank of china notice.

[pera]

Forget about "big crashes", at least not thanks to MtGox:
http://www.malwaretech.com/2013/11/mtgox-nearly-breaks-bitcoinagain.html

<@MagicalTux> very large sell order matching too many buy orders, causing the security system to stop the trade and rollback anything that was caused by it

[Ibian]

It wasn't that long ago that I bought at 700 and thought I got screwed on the price. These momentary dips only matters to people who think they can make a profit buying and selling and very recent buyers. Nothing new going on.

[N4D3B337Z]

It wasn't that long ago that I bought at 700 and thought I got screwed on the price. These momentary dips only matters to people who think they can make a profit buying and selling and very recent buyers. Nothing new going on.

I hope you're correct this is my first crash.
I bought in @ 750.
Sold half @ 1150.
Now I'm watching the other half of my investment freefall.
I can't convince myself to under sell my coins.
Am I a bear or a bull? Im from chicago so im a fan of both.

[pand70]

The volatility of bitcoin is over the top. 5 days ago i thought of 600 as something impossible and now i 'll be happy if the price stabilizes around there.

[beetcoin]

i guess you can't really say that there is no authority that controls bitcoin.. it's the exchanges and pump and dumpers who control where it goes, or doesnt.

[N4D3B337Z]

It wasn't that long ago that I bought at 700 and thought I got screwed on the price. These momentary dips only matters to people who think they can make a profit buying and selling and very recent buyers. Nothing new going on.

I hope you're correct this is my first crash.
I bought in @ 750.
Sold half @ 1150.
Now I'm watching the other half of my investment freefall.
I can't convince myself to under sell my coins.
Am I a bear or a bull? Im from chicago so im a fan of both.

If your going to suffer a coronary every time you have an unrealized loss, you should probably sell now, it will save you lots of stress.  The pattern here is easy to figure out, those who have held for more than 6 months have never lost money.  Ever.  Those who get dis-illusioned by unrealized losses and shoot for greed and lower re-entry often lose the most out of anyone when their original position would have paid off 10 times higher.  When it goes to $3,000/BTC are you going to care if you bought at 750 or 500? Say you bought 10 coins @ 750 = 7500 .. you sold 5 @ 1150 = 5750 .. 7500 - 5750 = 1750 / 5 = 350$ .. you really think your going to get a cheaper entry price?  Best you can do if watching the very short term is just buy it on the way down to dollar average the cost of building your supply back up and then your gains will be realized in actual BTC gains or just buying back in... say we reach 1587.59 in the next two weeks..

Smart man I was thinking that but GREED is like a common trait amongst humanity. Well, @ least Americans and Chinese maybe.

[N4D3B337Z]

The volatility of bitcoin is over the top. 5 days ago i thought of 600 as something impossible and now i 'll be happy if the price stabilizes around there.

I share this sentiment.

[Beta-coiner1]

Not a Bear or Bull,but I still find it surprising BTC has retained its current value during this cycle.

[pand70]

Not a Bear or Bull,but I still find it surprising BTC has retained its current value during this cycle.

I 'll share the same surprise if the price stabilizes or even better if the downtrend gets reversed. For now i 'm still kinda scared. 

[beetcoin]

Not a Bear or Bull,but I still find it surprising BTC has retained its current value during this cycle.

I 'll share the same surprise if the price stabilizes or even better if the downtrend gets reversed. For now i 'm still kinda scared.  

we're all scared.. but fuck it, i'm all in. i don't think i'm going to pretend like i know what's going to happen anymore.. maybe it'll go below $500, or maybe it won't. there's no way i can know who the manipulators are and aren't, and what they are planning.

[pand70]

Not a Bear or Bull,but I still find it surprising BTC has retained its current value during this cycle.

I 'll share the same surprise if the price stabilizes or even better if the downtrend gets reversed. For now i 'm still kinda scared.  

we're all scared.. but fuck it, i'm all in. i don't think i'm going to pretend like i know what's going to happen anymore.. maybe it'll go below $500, or maybe it won't. there's no way i can know who the manipulators are and aren't, and what they are planning.

My guess is that even manipulators (If there are any) got surprised from the recent china notice 

[outofservice]

Not a Bear or Bull,but I still find it surprising BTC has retained its current value during this cycle.

I'm not singling you out but I'm trying to understand how a lot of ppl think i'ts going to drop lower. I've read many comments from others like what you wrote.
This is a very unique opportunity that really can't be compared to anything else. It has it's own rules and they are being written right in front of our eyes.

That fact that it retained its current value shows it's strength, resilance and demand; would I be wrong to say that this is no longer speculation but that it's full-on legitimate? ...And that the bad news really didn't make it "crash" but the dip was due more to Panic Sells?  ....not to get off track or to sound like a conspirator but this all looks like it was done with purpose, maybe so gov's could buy up loads of it for cheap. To try and control it? Out of fear the powers that be won't get their piece of the pie? who knows...

Back on track.... With all that in mind and it's ability to beat bad news and stay in the 700 range (barely dipping to 600), how can ppl think it's going to 500-400?

I'd be a happy boy if it got that low so I could buy a bunch at that price. I was one of those that got in just under 1k and if I could grab a few to help level cost... well that would be my x-mas gift!

I'm kicking myself for thinking I need sleep.. I missed out when it hit 600. Ahhggg!

Can anyone educate me on how or why this will drop lower? How low?

[emanymton]

Not a Bear or Bull,but I still find it surprising BTC has retained its current value during this cycle.

I'm not singling you out but I'm trying to understand how a lot of ppl think i'ts going to drop lower. I've read many comments from others like what you wrote.
This is a very unique opportunity that really can't be compared to anything else. It has it's own rules and they are being written right in front of our eyes.

That fact that it retained its current value shows it's strength, resilance and demand; would I be wrong to say that this is no longer speculation but that it's full-on legitimate? ...And that the bad news really didn't make it "crash" but the dip was due more to Panic Sells?  ....not to get off track or to sound like a conspirator but this all looks like it was done with purpose, maybe so gov's could buy up loads of it for cheap. To try and control it? Out of fear the powers that be won't get their piece of the pie? who knows...

Back on track.... With all that in mind and it's ability to beat bad news and stay in the 700 range (barely dipping to 600), how can ppl think it's going to 500-400?

I'd be a happy boy if it got that low so I could buy a bunch at that price. I was one of those that got in just under 1k and if I could grab a few to help level cost... well that would be my x-mas gift!

I'm kicking myself for thinking I need sleep.. I missed out when it hit 600. Ahhggg!

Can anyone educate me on how or why this will drop lower? How low?

history

[Tzupy]

In a couple of hours the scenario saying that the bottom was at 576$ (Gox price) is going to be tested.
A sub-wave may be ending, and if the price drop will be large, then more drops will follow the next days.

[Gemminyc]

i guess you can't really say that there is no authority that controls bitcoin.. it's the exchanges and pump and dumpers who control where it goes, or doesnt.

But no one can force me to sell my mined Bitcoins for a price I doesnt like, so I waiting with the sell