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Question: Bitcoin price on 16th of august. Vote  (Voting closed: August 13, 2011, 09:24:35 PM)
$2 - 8 (4.6%)
$3 - 3 (1.7%)
$4 - 12 (6.9%)
$5 - 17 (9.8%)
$6 - 11 (6.3%)
$7 - 12 (6.9%)
$8 - 15 (8.6%)
$9 - 21 (12.1%)
$10 - 27 (15.5%)
$11 - 9 (5.2%)
$12 - 13 (7.5%)
$13 - 5 (2.9%)
$14 - 4 (2.3%)
$15 - 17 (9.8%)
Total Voters: 131

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Author Topic: Vote, what will the price be in one week? 16th of august  (Read 1194 times)
istar
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August 08, 2011, 09:24:35 PM
 #1

How good are we as a collective at guessing the price.

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August 08, 2011, 09:24:59 PM
 #2

$20±1.23

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August 08, 2011, 09:27:36 PM
 #3

Can we go a week without major drama?
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August 08, 2011, 09:28:55 PM
 #4

Considering, 16th is my birthday, i'd say make it go higher. Would be the perfect present.

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August 08, 2011, 09:29:44 PM
 #5

A guess is a guess, I guess Smiley

But my prediction on a tangent of the actual question is that you'll get high guesses from those holding "expensive" coins and low guesses from people trying to get "cheap" coins... and then there are those that, like me, can only wish as I have no clue of what the market will do, it being so small and easy to manipulate by a small few.

That, and I feel that your two bounds $2 and $15 are insufficient... you should add a "below" and "above" open ended option set.
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August 08, 2011, 09:31:09 PM
 #6

Can we go a week without major drama?

That really would be a new beginning for bitcoin I think. One of these days, these "hackers" are going to sit there and think "Damn, everything's already been done!" and hopefully leave the scene.

I know, wishful thinking.

PS. $5 seems to be the cost that most miners will still make a somewhat noticeable profit, so that's my guess.

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August 08, 2011, 09:41:46 PM
 #7

On 16th August I predict $3.9/BTC, this will be on the way back up from the $2.8/BTC low which is happening within the next 9 days.
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August 08, 2011, 10:09:34 PM
 #8

Somewhere between 9 and 10.
Actually, if you take the job of browse my older posts, when that thing with MtGox came out I said BTC would go down up to 7, where it should be at the "rollback" time without the bubble, now it just went down to its right price and will trend up slowly. Unless Gawker folks figure a way to buy "I don't know what" on Silk Road and another bubble comes out.
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August 08, 2011, 10:48:16 PM
 #9

$15±14.00

Now that may be the future Huh
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August 08, 2011, 11:22:07 PM
 #10

Can't see anyway to change my vote and I want to vote $13 just because no one else has.

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August 08, 2011, 11:29:56 PM
 #11

$1600.15
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August 09, 2011, 12:22:09 AM
 #12

I was rather hoping to see a "normal distribution" (gaussian curve) of votes. This dosn't work well as a means of estimation, unless the answer is going to be $10.
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August 09, 2011, 12:36:45 AM
 #13

I was rather hoping to see a "normal distribution" (gaussian curve) of votes. This dosn't work well as a means of estimation, unless the answer is going to be $10.

There's, one towards the pessimist scenario, another towards the optimistic scenario.
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August 09, 2011, 01:24:14 AM
 #14

Can we go a week without major drama?

That really would be a new beginning for bitcoin I think. One of these days, these "hackers" are going to sit there and think "Damn, everything's already been done!" and hopefully leave the scene.

I know, wishful thinking.

PS. $5 seems to be the cost that most miners will still make a somewhat noticeable profit, so that's my guess.

I doubt the hackers will ever say that, but they JUST might realize that bitcoin is THEIR currency, and their hacking attempts are the equivalent of shooting themselves in the foot.
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August 09, 2011, 03:42:43 AM
 #15

But my prediction on a tangent of the actual question is that you'll get high guesses from those holding "expensive" coins and low guesses from people trying to get "cheap" coins.

My guess is you're right: the poll results look bimodal, with median peaks at $5 and $10, and these peaks represent those holding cash on the exchanges & those holding bitcoins, respectively.  Since there are more guesses of 10, I think there are more speculation forum members that are holding bitcoins.

Also interesting for just how wide the spread is.  What it says to me is that no one has a clue what bitcoins are worth, and this poll is for just a week from now!

There's only one thing we can conclude with confidence: at least 80% of all guessers are wrong, with the top vote getter at 17.5% right now (assuming the price is just a single value, of course).
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August 09, 2011, 04:42:01 AM
 #16

Also interesting for just how wide the spread is.  What it says to me is that no one has a clue what bitcoins are worth, and this poll is for just a week from now!

Yup.
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