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Author Topic: RALLY!  (Read 36934 times)
Cluster2k
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August 20, 2012, 12:04:28 PM
 #461

Today is very important as there is a lot of press coverage on the bitinstant debit card. He's made bitcoin look very bad with that kink in the graph but if he can hold the price steady while half a million coins are put into circulation then I think folks will get another message - don't try fucking with this market.

Two problems with this weekend's action: it makes bitcoin look extremely volatile.  Who relishes the prospect of using bitcoin to transfer money between countries, and in the space of a few hours before it can be cashed out into the currency of their choice they lose 20%?  Sure, they could wait for the price to recover, but then it's not transferring money.  It's speculating.  I was contemplating using bitcoin to transfer a relatively significant amount of money back home but now I don't think I'd bother.  I'd rather declare it officially and go through banks.

The other bad point is a salient point bitcoin's detractor's have: many of the cheap and easy bitcoins are locked up with early adopters.  Concentrating wealth in the hands of a few is never healthy, and here we've demonstrated how someone can obtain quite a large proportion of bitcoins and use them in ways not beneficial to the overall marketplace. 

Swinging from $9.50 to $7.50 and then $10.50 within the space of a few hours only makes speculators happy.

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August 20, 2012, 12:18:57 PM
 #462

It's growing pains. Bitcoin is still taking its baby steps, this is little more than a gamblers' playing field right now. Nevertheless I still feel very optimistic for the long term. Also, whining about cheap coins is ridiculous - now we got a taste of cheap coins. This is quite possibly the last time Bitcoin will ever be at single digits so take advantage of it.

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August 20, 2012, 01:42:39 PM
 #463

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August 20, 2012, 01:46:31 PM
 #464

i was able to get ~440 BTC @ $8.  wanted to get more at that price, but the market rose too fast....

Same Smiley Good Price

I'm being totally serious.  If this isn't making you worried, then you haven't payed enough attention to the way this market behaves.



Just days ago there was a little over 60,000 BTCs on the sell side.  Total.  Now there are ~200,000 BTCs to $15.  It would take almost 2.5 million dollars to get back to where we just were days ago, assuming a single giant buy.  AND, the number of bitcoins that has suddenly appeared on MtGox doesn't represent the additional hundreds of thousands that will be entering the market throughout the week, assuming pirate actually makes good on his claim to cover everyone's deposits.  In a odd twist of fate, it'd be better for the market for pirate to just run off with all those bitcoins.  To say that supply has increased a lot is a laughable understatement, even now, and considering what's coming this looks worse than it did in the lead up to the crash to $2.

what if a big holder of BTC's, i know some, decide they want even more BTC.  they put up huge ask walls they never intend to sell just to scare the living bejeezus out of guys like you then scoop them up at prices like $7-10?  that's what i'd call accumulation.

The odds of that happening seem quite a bit lower to me than the odds of the price going down much, much further since, unlike your hypothetical case, the number of bitcoins being thrown up for sale on MtGox has in fact gone up by almost 4x in the past few days and the odds are pretty good that hundreds of thousands more will make their way into the market throughout the week.  Maybe there are a few deep pockets out there who want to own a lot of bitcoins, but you'd need some pretty deep pockets to buy right now in the face of what's likely headed this way.

well, all i can say is RALLY TIME!  price back over $10 and heading higher!  Cheesy

It's going to bounce around as people who sold buy back thinking they're doing it at the bottom.  I'm saying, I don't think most of people playing in the market realize that there's a storm headed this way and it's even bigger than the one that already passed through.

Indeed there is a possibility of a storm brewing. If you are playing the market, then you have to read the market trends and see sentiment and resistance.

However the supply / demand may flip in an instant because of market conditions as you had said.
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August 20, 2012, 02:10:43 PM
 #465

It's growing pains. Bitcoin is still taking its baby steps, this is little more than a gamblers' playing field right now. Nevertheless I still feel very optimistic for the long term. Also, whining about cheap coins is ridiculous - now we got a taste of cheap coins. This is quite possibly the last time Bitcoin will ever be at single digits so take advantage of it.

It's the last time we see cheap bitcoins, until the next time.  Early adopter advantage isn't a problem for you and me, but it is for the impartial observer who just discovers bitcoin.  "How do I get some Bitcoins?"  "You buy them from people who created them"  It's one of the key reasons why bitcoin is written off as a pyramid scheme by some.

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August 20, 2012, 02:30:39 PM
 #466

Just days ago there was a little over 60,000 BTCs on the sell side.  Total.  Now there are ~200,000 BTCs to $15.  It would take almost 2.5 million dollars to get back to where we just were days ago, assuming a single giant buy.  AND, the number of bitcoins that has suddenly appeared on MtGox doesn't represent the additional hundreds of thousands that will be entering the market throughout the week, assuming pirate actually makes good on his claim to cover everyone's deposits.  In a odd twist of fate, it'd be better for the market for pirate to just run off with all those bitcoins.  To say that supply has increased a lot is a laughable understatement, even now, and considering what's coming this looks worse than it did in the lead up to the crash to $2.
Bitcoin buyers are easy to understand. They want to buy as cheap as possible, or need the coins ASAP.

In sharp contrast Bitcoin sellers are really hard to understand. The same people that didn't want to sell at almost twice the price one day ago, want to sell everything at half the price as fast as possible.

So in other word it works like this:
buyer "hey, want to sell me at $14?"
seller "no way!"
buyer "ok, want to sell me at $8?"
seller "sure, take all I have"

Sellers always flood the market with cheap coins as soon as the price goes down. Because they now get less per coin? Are sellers actually stupid, or what does cause this?

Guess its no different in any other freely traded financial instrument. How was the rate in forex on winning traders, i think something between 0.01-5%, any more questions? Those who actively trade almost certainty fail.
Also people stop thinking when under financial pressure, our lizzard brain tells us to flee ie selling to the safe dollars and euros.

Everybody who is actively trading may experienced this multiple times, quitting a position just to see its taking the rebound to new highs.

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August 20, 2012, 02:51:46 PM
 #467

Just days ago there was a little over 60,000 BTCs on the sell side.  Total.  Now there are ~200,000 BTCs to $15.  It would take almost 2.5 million dollars to get back to where we just were days ago, assuming a single giant buy.  AND, the number of bitcoins that has suddenly appeared on MtGox doesn't represent the additional hundreds of thousands that will be entering the market throughout the week, assuming pirate actually makes good on his claim to cover everyone's deposits.  In a odd twist of fate, it'd be better for the market for pirate to just run off with all those bitcoins.  To say that supply has increased a lot is a laughable understatement, even now, and considering what's coming this looks worse than it did in the lead up to the crash to $2.
Bitcoin buyers are easy to understand. They want to buy as cheap as possible, or need the coins ASAP.

In sharp contrast Bitcoin sellers are really hard to understand. The same people that didn't want to sell at almost twice the price one day ago, want to sell everything at half the price as fast as possible.

So in other word it works like this:
buyer "hey, want to sell me at $14?"
seller "no way!"
buyer "ok, want to sell me at $8?"
seller "sure, take all I have"

Sellers always flood the market with cheap coins as soon as the price goes down. Because they now get less per coin? Are sellers actually stupid, or what does cause this?

Guess its no different in any other freely traded financial instrument. How was the rate in forex on winning traders, i think something between 0.01-5%, any more questions? Those who actively trade almost certainty fail.
Also people stop thinking when under financial pressure, our lizzard brain tells us to flee ie selling to the safe dollars and euros.

Everybody who is actively trading may experienced this multiple times, quitting a position just to see its taking the rebound to new highs.


The problem is there is no real use for bitcoin except speculating on it.

(And actually using it as a currency, but don't tell anybody :p)

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August 20, 2012, 04:35:54 PM
 #468

I missed the low as I couldn't get my money in in time, but I'm buying Smiley
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August 20, 2012, 05:23:42 PM
 #469

The problem is there is no real use for bitcoin except speculating on it.

(And actually using it as a currency, but don't tell anybody :p)

Not really sure what you are talking about or why you would make such an assertion.

I already do quite a few legitimate business transactions every month using bitcoins.

Yesterday I talked with one of my suppliers, who experimented with mining a year ago, and will be converting all our trade to bitcoins (easily $500+/month). He has an independent contractor who does computer programming in Canada whose Paypal account was banned so it is hard to get payments up there to him. Guess what my supplier is going to start using to pay his contractor? Bitcoin.

With the new BitInstant credit/debit card that will make it so easy to phase in and out of bitcoins and fiat we can pretty easily begin demanding all our independent contractors to accept bitcoins. Of course, it will start off with a bonus, around 5 BTC, but after everyone has their BitInstant credit/debit cards working then it will switch.

Don't take bitcoin for the entire gig/salary? You're fired. In this economy, there are plenty of people out there looking for work.

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August 20, 2012, 05:27:17 PM
 #470

I don't think you got the joke....

Don't take bitcoin? You're fired.

Take that attitude elsewhere.

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August 20, 2012, 05:31:13 PM
 #471

I don't think you got the joke....
Don't take bitcoin? You're fired.
Take that attitude elsewhere.

You are forgetting the golden rule: He who has the gold makes the rules.

I have already started boycotting goods and service providers that do not accept bitcoins. Have a long standing business relationship with an additional provider. Last week we signed another year long contract. After we signed it I gave him notice that next year if they wanted to keep our business and do not accept bitcoins then I will not be renewing the contract.

I think people underestimate the effect from wielding the power of purse, particularly in this economy, will have in persuading goods and services providers to accept bitcoins.

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August 20, 2012, 05:32:32 PM
 #472

Don't take bitcoin for the entire gig/salary? You're fired. In this economy, there are plenty of people out there looking for work.

Bitcoin Magazine has a simple policy. We prefer to pay all contractors in BTC. They can ask for another form of payment, but then they cover any costs associated with their chosen method of payment. Once they see that instead of say 100$ in BTC they get only 88-90$ in their preferred currency and payment method, many quickly change their mind on how they want to be paid.


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August 20, 2012, 05:37:12 PM
 #473

cover any costs associated with their chosen method of payment.

Do you include the administrative costs or only the transaction/exchange fees?

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August 20, 2012, 05:39:39 PM
 #474

cover any costs associated with their chosen method of payment.

Do you include the administrative costs or only the transaction/exchange fees?

Just out of pocket costs i.e. what banks/paypal/whomever charge us or if we can we just set "all charges to be paid by payee".

I suppose if they request me to swim over atlantic and deliver some banknotes personally, there might be some "administrative fee" for that.  Grin




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August 20, 2012, 05:40:33 PM
 #475

I don't think you got the joke....
Don't take bitcoin? You're fired.
Take that attitude elsewhere.

You are forgetting the golden rule: He who has the gold makes the rules.

I have already started boycotting goods and service providers that do not accept bitcoins. Have a long standing business relationship with an additional provider. Just signed another year long contract. After we signed it I gave him notice that next year if they do not accept bitcoins then I will not be renewing the contract.

I think people underestimate the effect from wielding the power of purse, particularly in this economy, will have in persuading goods and services providers begin to accept bitcoins.

No it's not it's arrogant, and economical harmful.

Why do you think the term "legal tender" refers to government issued turds which you are forced to accept? You might argue that this is something different as you don't have the means to use violence to enforce your agenda, you just refuse to do business with em. But ultimately it is the same because you can only pay taxes in legal tender.
If this attitude becomes the norm it will split the economy apart and in the end starving it of participants. It's about choice, you must choose to take part of it or else you aren't a real participant. People who are forced into a system will ultimately create their own one. (Guess what we are here  Shocked)

We just don't need that here.

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August 20, 2012, 05:52:13 PM
 #476


No it's not it's arrogant, and economical harmful.

Why do you think the term "legal tender" refers to government issued turds which you are forced to accept?

Most people see no ethical issue in choosing dealers who accept the credit card I prefer over one who doesn't. Why Bitcoin? He didn't say: I only accept you as a provider if you do *not* accept fiat. Then you'd have a point.

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August 20, 2012, 05:55:15 PM
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No it's not it's arrogant, and economical harmful.

Why do you think the term "legal tender" refers to government issued turds which you are forced to accept?

Most people see no ethical issue in choosing dealers who accept the credit card I prefer over one who doesn't. Why Bitcoin? He didn't say: I only accept you as a provider if you do *not* accept fiat. Then you'd have a point.

Good job at nit-picking my argument.

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August 20, 2012, 07:36:23 PM
 #478


No it's not it's arrogant, and economical harmful.

Why do you think the term "legal tender" refers to government issued turds which you are forced to accept?

Most people see no ethical issue in choosing dealers who accept the credit card I prefer over one who doesn't. Why Bitcoin? He didn't say: I only accept you as a provider if you do *not* accept fiat. Then you'd have a point.

Good job at nit-picking my argument.

It's a valid flaw in your argument.  Demanding someone take what you have or not doing business with them is not arrogant or harmful to them.  It may harm you, but he's free to limit himself like that if he chooses.

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August 20, 2012, 07:41:07 PM
 #479

No it's not it's arrogant, and economical harmful.

Why do you think the term "legal tender" refers to government issued turds which you are forced to accept? You might argue that this is something different as you don't have the means to use violence to enforce your agenda, you just refuse to do business with em. But ultimately it is the same because you can only pay taxes in legal tender.
If this attitude becomes the norm it will split the economy apart and in the end starving it of participants. It's about choice, you must choose to take part of it or else you aren't a real participant. People who are forced into a system will ultimately create their own one. (Guess what we are here  Shocked)

We just don't need that here.

No, refusing to use government issued legal tender fiat is neither economically harmful nor morally questionable because it is peaceful and voluntary.

There is even an argument for moral people, who desire peace and prosperity, to do whatever they can to limit or eliminate their use of legal tender fiat. States are always aggressively violent and always results in lower standards of living because of the inability to solve the calculation problem.

Legally you are not 'forced to accept' legal tender for a transaction. You can refuse service unless people pay via bitcoins, seashells or whatever else you want.

When you are forced to accept legal tender is in payment of debt. Likewise if you sue and obtain a judgment it will become a debt and is usually denominated in legal tender. Legal tender laws are price controls, enforced by violence, for the legal tender instrument. As such, legal tender laws are economically harmful.

The least harmful is to make the legal tender instrument one which the market would otherwise choose as the monetary instrument because then the value the market places on the monetary instrument would generally be higher than the set price. The introduction of the price control, enforced by violence, leads to misallocations of capital because of the non-mutually advantageous economic relationships. The early American colonists understood this because of the depredations visited upon holders of capital by legal tender laws.

Hence Shakespeare's advice in Hamlet:

Quote
LORD POLONIUS:
Neither a borrower nor a lender be;
For loan oft loses both itself and friend,
And borrowing dulls the edge of husbandry.

John Witherspoon, a signer of the Declaration of Independence said “For two or three years we constantly saw and were informed of creditors running away from their debtors and the debtors pursuing them in triumph, paying them without mercy.” Virginia law went so far as to declare debts cancelled if the creditor refused to accept the notes.

But ultimately it is the same because you can only pay taxes in legal tender.

No, it is not the same because it is the local aggressively violent costumed criminal gang requiring payment of slave tribute in a particular form of a particular instrument. The tax liability may accure and the other party may choose to pay it, instead of being beaten or murdered by the aggressive criminal gang, and will need legal tender instruments to do so. They will simply have to acquire those instruments from a third transaction, either with you or some third party, and the savings or cost will be reflected in the price the two of you agree upon.

If this attitude becomes the norm it will split the economy apart and in the end starving it of participants. It's about choice, you must choose to take part of it or else you aren't a real participant. People who are forced into a system will ultimately create their own one. (Guess what we are here  Shocked)

Yes, I agree that Bitcoin has the potential to make extreme divisions in the economy because it so profoundly changes the economics of violence because no amount of violence will solve a math problem. It is a great force multiplier for protection from extortion. However, the starved participants will be those that require on aggression and violence for their sustenance. On the other hand, the producers will keep what they produce because the ROI from stealing it from them will be negative.

BLOGDAIL makes a compelling case:

Quote
The facts in this matter do not concern the people who are gloating over this event. There are a group of people who are violent in nature, and who despise Bitcoin because they understand exactly what it represents; a direct threat to their sick and violent society which is based on coercion, the absence of freedom and the application of force.

Imagine a world where everyone had access to personal force fields via an artificially created gland that was made to grow into their abdomen by a nano machine / virus. These force fields could be activated either by the fear response or by the direction of your will, in the same way that you use your will to direct your arm to throw a ball.

Everyone would be able to protect themselves from any sort of physical attack, and all would be able to use similar technology to protect their houses.

It would then immediately become impossible for the State to send their agents to your house to rob you with bailiffs. They would no longer be able to force you to pay anything that you did not want to pay, and you would be able to protect yourself and your property from the other criminals and predators that are not sent out by the State.

In such a world, all flows of money would be voluntary by default. There could be no coercion of any kind, since violence against the person and her property would have been abolished by the advent of force fields.

The entire world would switch from one based on violence to one based on voluntary exchange.

This is exactly what Bitcoin is doing.

It is going to make it impossible for the state to stop people transacting at a distance, in any amount that they choose. It is going to remove the State from the equation as the unwanted third party in all transactions.

We just don't need that here.

If you are a member of the aggressive criminal gang then having the productive cows refuse to produce or disappear is a real problem. However, if you are a productive cow then it only makes sense to disappear to Atlantis.

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August 20, 2012, 08:03:02 PM
 #480

It seems there was a slight misunderstanding on what I meant with arrogant and economical harmful attitude.

Ok let me clarify this:
Of course it is alright to say: I'm looking to do business only in bitcoin. It strengthens the economy and closes the money flow cycle.
However it is harmful to say: Don't accept bitcoin? You are fired.

The one thing are new business relations the other established ones. You should never burn bridges even if you think it suits you.

First they ignore you, then they laugh at you, then they keep laughing, then they start choking on their laughter, and then they go and catch their breath. Then they start laughing even more.
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