Mad as a box of frogs

[oda.krell]

Pretty amusing read, thanks OP

Doesn't really apply to Bitcoin (or any other market) though, right? Sure, there are plenty people that get rich simply by luck, but the Buffett example is that of a coin -- presumably a provably fair coin, meaning there is nothing to predict about tossing that coin besides the fact that either outcome is equally likely.

That's hardly what happens in markets. Why would human behavior, guided by (depending on your philosophical assumptions) free will or quasi-deterministic processes suddenly become completely random just because it is group behavior rather than that of one individual. Sure, there's some noise and randomness, but almost certainly not to the point where there is no prediction possible.

Meh. Unnecessary rant, I guess. After all, this is the speculation subforum. Surely noone here thinks the market is nothing but a coin toss.

I'd be willing to bet that for most speculators here there is sufficient complexity and number of variables to render their predictions about as accurate as guessing coin flips.

Agreed. But the fact that there is only 1 competent brain surgeon among 1000s of people doesn't make brain surgery any less of a well-founded method.

There difference is though, I agree, that trading allows delusion to thrive

True enough I suppose.  I don't know enough to refute that some players have strategies that will garner statistically positive alpha, only that I haven't seen any obvious examples to date.

look for user lucif (old account), masterluc (new account). solid TA (bit EW heavy, for my taste) + excellent intuition, and he called the top again well ahead of the crash.

[I_bitcoin]

This is also a great quote for those who claim to predict the future value of stocks and sell their advice.

Wait , you're not interested in buying a book on how to win 10 millions on forex? I'm trying to sell it for 10$ instead of gaining myself 10 millions with my knowledge.
=))))

Exactly!   Always amazed by the flim flam man.   How do people fall for it?   Most disconcerting is that as you get older apparently you become more likely to be scammed

[amencon]

Pretty amusing read, thanks OP

Doesn't really apply to Bitcoin (or any other market) though, right? Sure, there are plenty people that get rich simply by luck, but the Buffett example is that of a coin -- presumably a provably fair coin, meaning there is nothing to predict about tossing that coin besides the fact that either outcome is equally likely.

That's hardly what happens in markets. Why would human behavior, guided by (depending on your philosophical assumptions) free will or quasi-deterministic processes suddenly become completely random just because it is group behavior rather than that of one individual. Sure, there's some noise and randomness, but almost certainly not to the point where there is no prediction possible.

Meh. Unnecessary rant, I guess. After all, this is the speculation subforum. Surely noone here thinks the market is nothing but a coin toss.

I'd be willing to bet that for most speculators here there is sufficient complexity and number of variables to render their predictions about as accurate as guessing coin flips.

Agreed. But the fact that there is only 1 competent brain surgeon among 1000s of people doesn't make brain surgery any less of a well-founded method.

There difference is though, I agree, that trading allows delusion to thrive

True enough I suppose.  I don't know enough to refute that some players have strategies that will garner statistically positive alpha, only that I haven't seen any obvious examples to date.

look for user lucif (old account), masterluc (new account). solid TA (bit EW heavy, for my taste) + excellent intuition, and he called the top again well ahead of the crash.

I've seen him post but haven't followed his predictions closely, I'll check it out, thanks.

[ScrapOfCat]

This reminds me of the most brilliant scam I ever read about, to wit:

You get a list of 10,000 people that bet on sports. You send the people on this list a prediction that one team will win over another.

After the contest, roughly half of the people you contacted will believe that you predicted the winning team.  You contact these people, and only these people, and make another prediction.

After the next contest repeat the process. 

After 10 times, you send a letter to the remaining 10 people or so.  You remind them that you have been correct in your predictions every single time you have contacted them before.  you offer to sell them a prediction on the next contest.

Profit.

[piramida]

look for user lucif (old account), masterluc (new account). solid TA (bit EW heavy, for my taste) + excellent intuition, and he called the top again well ahead of the crash.

How well ahead? Because we have super-intuitive bears here who started predicting crash well ahead, from about $20.

[oda.krell]

look for user lucif (old account), masterluc (new account). solid TA (bit EW heavy, for my taste) + excellent intuition, and he called the top again well ahead of the crash.

How well ahead? Because we have super-intuitive bears here who started predicting crash well ahead, from about $20.

haha, no, that's not what I mean by predicting of course. If you can't profit from it, it's not a prediction, and if you "predicted" a reversal all the way from the 20 you most certainly didn't profit :D

He called this top pretty much immediately after the double top formed, so between 1000 and 1200. I suspect he got our nearer 1200 since he tends to post shortly after he made his own trades (which seems a good idea if you prefer to sell before others get a chance to ruin your profit taking).

[PenAndPaper]

There's nothing wrong with taking the other side of the bet ... :p

When the 20x head flipper shows up ... bet on tails. Psychology will take care of the rest.

And never bet everything, either way.

Unfortunately a coin doesn't have any feelings or memory or anything else besides 50% chance for either heads or tails.

Exactly, the fact that everyone is "betting heads" makes betting tails a "outsized" bet, even though the underlying probability says otherwise. Aka reverse gambler's fallacy. Probability is one thing, risk:reward is something different.

Part of "buy low, sell high" is looking like an idiot for more time than you can imagine.

That said, the analogy doesn't apply that well because markets are not purely stochastic, but processes with memory.

There isn't any 20x heads flipper (not necessarily at least). There are those that guessed right 20 times in a row! Why do you even talk about 20 heads in a row. Read the op again