THE CRASH OF THE BITCOIN BUBBLE HAS BEGUN! SEE CHART.

[pand70]

You understand that there was very specific news that caused the price to collapse right? 

[Lone Wolf]

Point taken. There are many independent factors that could abruptly change the btc market any given day, so it is a risky investment for sure, but it has come a long way in just a few years, and that makes it very interesting to follow.  

Agreed on all points.

[Lone Wolf]

You understand that there was very specific news that caused the price to collapse right?  

There were 2 right?  China banning banks from dealing in btc's and both Baidu and China Telecom stopped accepting btc's.

[raspcoin]

Bitcoin recovered quite nicely today. Do you still believe your theory is correct?

[owlbear]

Well of course there is a bubble and of course prices will eventually hit a low much lower than where it is now. That's easy to see just from the extreme growth that we've had recently.

Here's the thing though: that information is both obvious and useless unless you can tell when the bubble will pop and from what level of value and to what level. It is possible that $1200 was the peak, but there is also a fair chance that it will soar beyond $1500 or even beyond $2000 before it comes tumbling down. It is possible that it will ultimately bottom out at $600, $500, $400, $300... Who knows. And if you don't know, you can't make use of the information.

Last bubble in April I sold 6 hours before panic set in, but then I waited too long to buy back in and only made a 50% gain in BTC instead of a 400% gain that it would have been had I bought back in at just the right time.

[co5hike]

Last bubble in April I sold 6 hours before panic set in, but then I waited too long to buy back in and only made a 50% gain in BTC instead of a 400% gain that it would have been had I bought back in at just the right time.

We all would be rich if it was easy to predict Bitcoin price. As you told, noone knows the tommorow or next year Bitcoin price

[wman]

I'm not saying that you're wrong, but your "argument" consists of anecdotes and a chart. I do not find that to be a very convincing, and I'm one of the few that actually believes there could be a crash (although I am starting to believe that this last dip was the "crash" that I was expecting, I just thought it would be a lot worse).

[Lone Wolf]

Bitcoin recovered quite nicely today. Do you still believe your theory is correct?

3 days does not a bubble burst make.  I actually didn't think the bubble would burst so soon after I came to my conclusion that it was in a bubble.  Remember I only started watching in early Nov.  I figured since the speculation is pushing up the stock market that it could also continue to push up btc.  I though it could easily reach $1500 and maybe even $2000.

Also one thing about bubbles is they can go on much longer than most think.  So as for shorting btc, a wise man once said "the market can stay irrational much longer than you can stay solvent".

So owlbear might be right it could hit $1500-2000 bef the bubble bursts or i could be right and this could be the beginning of the burst.  Only time will tell.

[co5hike]

Maybe looking at Bitcoin fundamentals, not only price and speculation, could convince OP Bitcoin is not pyramid scheme and crash to 0 is unlikely to happen...

[Lone Wolf]

I'm not saying that you're wrong, but your "argument" consists of anecdotes and a chart. I do not find that to be a very convincing, and I'm one of the few that actually believes there could be a crash (although I am starting to believe that this last dip was the "crash" that I was expecting, I just thought it would be a lot worse).

Those "anecdotes" are not just quaint little sayings that someone just made up.  They are conclusions of ppl who have been thrr previous bubbles going back to the railroad bubbles of the 1800's.  ppl who were professional investors smarter than you and i.

As for the chart of emotions, that is just a chart of emotions that bubble investors go thru.  It does not predict a bubble.  I didn't come to the conclusion that btc is in a bubble b/c of that chart.  I came to the conclusion by looking at the price chart of btc and the speed at which it rose in such a short time and the parabolic nature of that rise.

Also comparing the recent btc chart to charts of other bubble like the nasdaq bubble of 1996-2000.  As you can see here the nasdaq also went parabolic starting the week of oct. 25, 1999 thru mar. 6, 2000.  also a very fast rise.

bubbles usually start to implode after going parabolic and the greatest gains in a bubble are at the very end of said bubble.

http://finance.yahoo.com/charts?s=^IXIC#symbol=^ixic;range=19950103,20020903;compare=;indicator=volume;charttype=candlestick;crosshair=on;ohlcvalues=0;logscale=off;source=undefined;

[monbux]

You assume wrong.  I have never owned one CENT of btc.  I am NOT short and I don't plan on ever shorting btc.

And btw it hasn't hit $500...yet.  The low was on Mt. Gox was $576.

So you never got any BTC, yet you are trying to bring terror upon the civilized bitcoin holders.
BTW, It's 900$ USD on MT.GOX at the moment.

[Lone Wolf]

if you look at the nasdaq chart, the implosion of that bubble last from mar. 2000 until sept. 2002.

[Lone Wolf]

So you never got any BTC, yet you are trying to bring terror upon the civilized bitcoin holders.
BTW, It's 900$ USD on MT.GOX at the moment.

oh dear god.  did you read all of my previous posts?  for the 50th time, i am not short btc b/c shorting something that is this volatile is impossible.  also i don't short things anymore after getting burned in the stock mkt.  i am much better at going long than shorting.  also see the above quote about mkts staying irrational longer than you can stay solvent.

also i'm not trying to "bring terror" to "civilized" btc holders (whatever that means).  any negative emotions you feel such as terror, anger or denial are coming from within you.

i simply came to the conclusion that btc is in a speculative bubble and this may be the beginning of the bubble bursting.  you don't need to be long or short btc to have an opinion on its price action and short term outlook.  i share that opinion on this message board.  that is what message boards are for right, sharing opinions on a given topic whether good or bad  if no one listens to or considers my opinion that is fine with me.

i came to the conclusion based on experiencing previous bubbles and learning from them.  also as a former stock trader i looked at the btc price charts and read the charts using what's called technical analysis.  not showing off here, google it, its a real thing that stock traders use.

as for btc being at $900, when a stock is making lower lows and lower highs than previously, then the uptrend has reversed and it is iin a downtrend.  btc made what's called a "double top" at $1240ish in late nov. and early dec.  it then made a lower low at $576 than the previous 2 lows of $840 and $870.  in order to reverse the downtrend it needs to put either a higher low than $576 or a higher high than $1242.

[macncheese]

I got two cents:   Looks like btc is pushing 900 at this time.  I think Bubble does not mean the end of the world for btc, it basically means a Correction; and some people will get hurt in the short term and will not be able to weather the storm, lose faith, need money, or whatever and sell out in fear; all in all, a natural phenomenon.

Btc can end up 5,000 in a couple years, who knows.  The fact is a very tiny tiny percentage of the world uses btc, but if it continues on for a few years - and Ripple XRP may help that occur - and becomes accepted nearly as govt fiat money is, then it could go several hundred percent higher from this price --- but the risk isn't worth it because at this time there is more btc purchased at a lower price then those who bought at a high price and when they feel wealthy enough after such a successful speculation, they will dump which I think is happening.  What I'm saying is there must be many corrections before it stops bouncing and finds a fair price, then build from there and continue growing but probably more slowly, the ride to the Moon is over.
What about Ripples?  How does one buy Ripples for USD online?

[Lone Wolf]

wow, macncheese has posted the most rational comment i've seen on here.  a stock/commodity/currency going parabolic then crashing then bouncing around to its true value is called price discovery.  nothing goes to the moon and keeps going up forever.

never in any of my posts did i say btc was done forever and would go to zero and everyone would lose all their money.  i just said i am short term bearish and i felt that recent parabolic rise would crash.

i suggest you read these books.  you'll learn a lot about bubbles and manias.

A Short History of Financial Euphoria

Irrational Exuberance

The Great Crash 1929

Manias, Panics and Crashes: A History of Financial Crises

[led_lcd]

I've been reading the news and watching the developments of the progress of bitcoin and other alt coins.

I don't generally agree with Alan Greenspan's comments about bitcoin that it requires someone to back the currency. This is based upon the assumption that you are exposed to counterparty risk, which is possible to avoid with bitcoin.

The one thing I agree with Greenspan though is that how can anyone calculate the intrinsic value of bitcoin to say it is overvalued or undervalued? Is bitcoin in a speculative bubble? Of course. Like all bubbles it will correct and move to it's intrinsic value. The problem is no one knows what that is.

It doesn't mean that you can't make money out of it though.... Like all things, you have to manage your risk.

[Lone Wolf]

I've been reading the news and watching the developments of the progress of bitcoin and other alt coins.

I don't generally agree with Alan Greenspan's comments about bitcoin that it requires someone to back the currency. This is based upon the assumption that you are exposed to counterparty risk, which is possible to avoid with bitcoin.

The one thing I agree with Greenspan though is that how can anyone calculate the intrinsic value of bitcoin to say it is overvalued or undervalued? Is bitcoin in a speculative bubble? Of course. Like all bubbles it will correct and move to it's intrinsic value. The problem is no one knows what that is.

It doesn't mean that you can't make money out of it though.... Like all things, you have to manage your risk.

another rational and spot on comment!  no one person can say with certainty what btc (or any stock/commodity/currency) is worth.  it is worth what the market determines it is worth at any one time. 

and anyone who makes crazy predictions that btc is worth $100,000 (2 analysts at wedbush securities) or $1 million (hugh hendry at eclectica asset management) is either a fool, a liar or someone who is long and wants to pump up the item so they can realize a huge profit and dump their holdings on the latecomers.

[gencoinx]

I believe BTC will go back to 1000 plus in a few days, and then back down, thats how its been working lately

[icem3lter]

I believe BTC will go back to 1000 plus in a few days, and then back down, thats how its been working lately

Seems very likely, I wouldnt buy now, too risky after last weekend drop to $600

[Local576]

This is my first post on this forum, but I've been warning people on other sites and Twitter that at this time BTC is in a bubble, but no one wanted to listen.  I was attacked ferociously for my short term bearish view.  That is one of the SUREST signs that a bubble is about to pop.  The "true believers" attack any opposing view as ridiculous.

Look at this chart showing the stages of a bubble.  Bitcoin believers defending this drop as no big deal, buying opportunity, from weak hands to strong hands etc. etc.  THIS IS THE DENIAL STAGE.  Long way to go before believers hit DESPONDENCY.

https://twitter.com/YachtsOnTheReg/status/409383193796550656/photo/1

It is very interesting to see the market flow up and down like this.  Also there are a lot of different exchanges, some of which the technology works and others of which it doesn’t.  It definitely a rollercoaster ride!