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Author Topic: Looks like the market manipulator is back. But for how long?  (Read 3236 times)
Edward50
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August 10, 2011, 06:38:51 PM
 #1

I have noticed when the price dropped down to $5 that days before it looked like a major player or like I call market manipulator has pulled out. It looks like the past few days that he has come back and is trying to prop up the market again. He tried to pump the market into new short term highs buy buying late at night, and then he seems to be trying to hold the market in the double digits a bit over $10 to try and set a new psychological level.

I also determined this buy watching the amount of Bid's on the market, which was very low when he was out, now it seems to be higher now that he is back in.

It looks like he is not getting the success he wants, and it is obvious that he does not understand that you can not push bitcoin higher unless you expect to buy many of the coins that are being mined. I think this will lose steam and he will pull out again, and the prices should plummet again.

My recommendation would be to sell into this. This manipulation was not able to push the prices any higher than $10 dollars long term. It is starting to lose steam and there are already signs of it cracking.

If only I could short the market right now...

Empty your mind, be formless, shapeless — like water. Now you put water in a cup, it becomes the cup; You put water into a bottle it becomes the bottle; You put it in a teapot it becomes the teapot. Now water can flow or it can crash. Be water, my friend.
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August 10, 2011, 06:44:17 PM
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www.campbx.com

Go short then.
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August 10, 2011, 06:47:42 PM
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I have noticed when the price dropped down to $5 that days before it looked like a major player or like I call market manipulator has pulled out. It looks like the past few days that he has come back and is trying to prop up the market again. He tried to pump the market into new short term highs buy buying late at night, and then he seems to be trying to hold the market in the double digits a bit over $10 to try and set a new psychological level.

I also determined this buy watching the amount of Bid's on the market, which was very low when he was out, now it seems to be higher now that he is back in.

It looks like he is not getting the success he wants, and it is obvious that he does not understand that you can not push bitcoin higher unless you expect to buy many of the coins that are being mined. I think this will lose steam and he will pull out again, and the prices should plummet again.

My recommendation would be to sell into this. This manipulation was not able to push the prices any higher than $10 dollars long term. It is starting to lose steam and there are already signs of it cracking.

If only I could short the market right now...


I took your recommendation and sold at $9.75.  I hope I won't be disappointed by your advice.
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August 10, 2011, 07:01:31 PM
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Edward50, your observations of this player and his/her intentions are very poor/wrong. Price will eventually most likely go lower, but that has very little to do with this player. What you wrote is a fabrication of your imagination and your wishful thinking that bitcoin price should drop.

I'm in no way saying market will rally, I always said in my posts that I think bitcoin is a sub $10 product at its current use. But at this moment anything goes, a $300k buyer could show up just as likely as a $300k seller. Every time we get a quick pop from $7 to $12 on no news, chances are rally won't get far because nothing fundamentally changed in the game. Your sell signal is OK, everyone who bought bitcoins at sub $8.00 prior to this rally should be unloading at least 80% of the position, because right now it is more likely that in a week or a month market will again be trading at  $8.00 or lower, but this does not make it a good short by any means.

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August 10, 2011, 07:58:38 PM
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The weekend is coming and so is another price drop. I said before I suspect we will hit several plateaus on the way down to a new low. This time I think we will go below $6.

I also agree Bitcoin is currently overvalued. It needs to consolidate in the low single digits, the wealth needs to be redistributed so everyone currently holding Bitcoins is able to hold a sizeable portion of them, as the Bitcoin community infrastructure continues to develop and expand. Only then will Bitcoin's value be realised and we will see rallies unlike anything we have seen so far as we hit all new all-time highs.

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August 10, 2011, 08:13:14 PM
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The weekend is coming and so is another price drop. I said before I suspect we will hit several plateaus on the way down to a new low. This time I think we will go below $6.

I also agree Bitcoin is currently overvalued. It needs to consolidate in the low single digits, the wealth needs to be redistributed so everyone currently holding Bitcoins is able to hold a sizeable portion of them, as the Bitcoin community infrastructure continues to develop and expand. Only then will Bitcoin's value be realised and we will see rallies unlike anything we have seen so far as we hit all new all-time highs.

I think you are totally wrong.
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August 10, 2011, 08:39:27 PM
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Calling "market manipulation" is like seeing water in the desert. It isn't there man, just lots of trades bunched in the order book. The only true massive sell event would be the goxian-crash. I doubt we have anything like that for the upside.

The people who believe one speculator is responsible for the ups and downs doesn't understand the cumulative effect of the bid-ask spread, or how markets work in general.

I'm still happy to take their money, though Smiley

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August 11, 2011, 12:42:22 AM
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The weekend is coming and so is another price drop. I said before I suspect we will hit several plateaus on the way down to a new low. This time I think we will go below $6.

I also agree Bitcoin is currently overvalued. It needs to consolidate in the low single digits, the wealth needs to be redistributed so everyone currently holding Bitcoins is able to hold a sizeable portion of them, as the Bitcoin community infrastructure continues to develop and expand. Only then will Bitcoin's value be realised and we will see rallies unlike anything we have seen so far as we hit all new all-time highs.

A price drop will not bring consolidation, quite the opposite. When the price becomes attractive enough, one big player will typically drop enough money to buy several thousand BTC at once.

And of course OP has it backwards. It was the large dumps of BTC that caused the market to drop, not the other way around.

Regrettably, while we know Edward50's tactics all too well (check previous posts) we don't really know his/her ulterior motives.
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August 11, 2011, 01:04:56 AM
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The people who believe one speculator is responsible for the ups and downs doesn't understand the cumulative effect of the bid-ask spread, or how markets work in general.

Not true. They may just recognize how shallow this market is, and how easy it would be to push it in one direction or the other, given a modest amount (in USD) of Bitcoins, by market standards.

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August 11, 2011, 01:34:45 AM
 #10

I see us experiencing a gradual price increase into the Conference and then a massive post-conference pop to levels close to the all-time high or greater, driven by media attention and investor confidence.

Edward50
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August 11, 2011, 03:13:47 AM
 #11

The weekend is coming and so is another price drop. I said before I suspect we will hit several plateaus on the way down to a new low. This time I think we will go below $6.

I also agree Bitcoin is currently overvalued. It needs to consolidate in the low single digits, the wealth needs to be redistributed so everyone currently holding Bitcoins is able to hold a sizeable portion of them, as the Bitcoin community infrastructure continues to develop and expand. Only then will Bitcoin's value be realised and we will see rallies unlike anything we have seen so far as we hit all new all-time highs.

A price drop will not bring consolidation, quite the opposite. When the price becomes attractive enough, one big player will typically drop enough money to buy several thousand BTC at once.

And of course OP has it backwards. It was the large dumps of BTC that caused the market to drop, not the other way around.

Regrettably, while we know Edward50's tactics all too well (check previous posts) we don't really know his/her ulterior motives.

I do not have anything backwards. There was large dumps after the manipulator pulled out as he was not there to keep the price artifically high, as the price dropped then people unloaded more and more. Without this manipulator who is trying to shore the price up, probably holding a sizeable portion of bitcoins, the sellers will easily push the market down. There just isn't enough buyers.

What tactics are you speaking of, I just call the market for how I see it. Far  to pricey for its current state and risk level. Read all my posts, I have been correct all along, and also predicted long ago it would fall into single digits. I own no bitcoins, and never found a price low enough yet that I think it is worth an investment.
 
I do like when it falls because of the fact that it is like a cult on this forum, you can not say anything negative about bitcoins. I also do not like the fact that they banned newbie posts the first time the price started to fall, I saw this as an attempt to manipulate by trying not to cause mass panic.

This whole bitcoin endeavor seems to be one massive manipulated cult come to think about it. However, the price can not be controlled for too long because there are too many players in the market and nobody has that much money.

Empty your mind, be formless, shapeless — like water. Now you put water in a cup, it becomes the cup; You put water into a bottle it becomes the bottle; You put it in a teapot it becomes the teapot. Now water can flow or it can crash. Be water, my friend.
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August 11, 2011, 03:21:18 AM
 #12


A price drop will not bring consolidation, quite the opposite. When the price becomes attractive enough, one big player will typically drop enough money to buy several thousand BTC at once.

Of course. IMO at some stage the price will turn around but that won't be before it drops low enough to guarantee a return.


Not true. They may just recognize how shallow this market is, and how easy it would be to push it in one direction or the other, given a modest amount (in USD) of Bitcoins, by market standards.


+1

Not sure why this 'play' is invisible to so many people...

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August 11, 2011, 05:34:31 AM
 #13

My recommendation would be to sell into this. This manipulation was not able to push the prices any higher than $10 dollars long term. It is starting to lose steam and there are already signs of it cracking.

What do you mean "long term"?  We're barely in the 2nd trading day of ~$10/BTC.  Price is not just going to rocket to $15 (and then $20) overnight, after reversing from a downtrend.  First there's a bounce (because the panic-sellers sold-out), then a slow climb (cautious traders selling into mis-predicted tops), before a big rally (when most traders stop selling and the latecomers are panic buying) and a correction (profit-taking by the traders and panic selling by the latecomers).

A price drop will not bring consolidation, quite the opposite. When the price becomes attractive enough, one big player will typically drop enough money to buy several thousand BTC at once.

+1. 

As for manipulators, judging from daily volume and activity, there's more than one major player (having $100k+ for ~$50k trades). 

And between the big players, its more complex than repeated attempts at pump-and-dump.  I suspected at least one manipulation downward, starting from $14 with ask walls and big sells (How to Manipulate the Market), which eventually led to the sell-off. 

We can call big aggressive bets manipulation (or at least attempts), whether upwards or downwards.  It bottomed at six, and from there the ones betting upwards have won the most recent battle.  And judging from the bid depth (which is deeper than asks at the moment), the bulls came out better-funded; they don't seem to be backing off just yet.  So the chances that this is a reversal seem high enough, that I recommend holding for now (with a stop-loss at $9).

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August 11, 2011, 06:02:39 AM
 #14

I call BS on 300k in new investors being as likely as 300k being cashed out.  Fresh meat is a bit hard to come by, but plenty of people have millions of dollars worth of bitcoins on hand.  It's just that they can't cash out without that turning that into hundreds of dollars of bitcoins on hand.

Plenty of people got in at the 5.80 resistance level or thereabouts and are looking at nearly double their money.  Meanwhile, many miners expressed the same sentiment -- "I'm not selling at or under cost."  Variance makes it hard to tell, but it looks like we kept on mining without slowing down while the price tanked.  Which means we all should all be sitting on quite a few coins -- I know I've got more at mtgox than ever, and I'm getting a bit antsy.

So I'm not sure I'm buying into the entire explosive rally thing.  The assumption being: every dollar pulled out while selling coins is available to buy back in -- but once again, from personal experience that's not true.  The money I've pulled out by selling coins over the past few months is never, ever going to buy bitcoins.  It's going to AMD and Antec.


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August 11, 2011, 09:48:23 AM
 #15

Please Mr Market Manipulator..... Drop to $8.7  Roll Eyes

I'm jonesing to buy back in..  Grin

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August 11, 2011, 12:52:56 PM
 #16

Price manipulation is what makes this bitcoin market so much fun to watch.  Action like last night's sudden buying binge from $10 to $12, and the rapid drop back again are popcorn moments.  If one person wants to pump and dump the market then so be it.  It's a good test of a free market completely free of pesky government intervention and regulation that only serves to stifle innovation.  I'm hoping for a good show on the weekend too.

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August 11, 2011, 04:16:30 PM
 #17

I have noticed when the price dropped down to $5 that days before it looked like a major player or like I call market manipulator has pulled out. It looks like the past few days that he has come back and is trying to prop up the market again. He tried to pump the market into new short term highs buy buying late at night, and then he seems to be trying to hold the market in the double digits a bit over $10 to try and set a new psychological level.

I also determined this buy watching the amount of Bid's on the market, which was very low when he was out, now it seems to be higher now that he is back in.

It looks like he is not getting the success he wants, and it is obvious that he does not understand that you can not push bitcoin higher unless you expect to buy many of the coins that are being mined. I think this will lose steam and he will pull out again, and the prices should plummet again.

My recommendation would be to sell into this. This manipulation was not able to push the prices any higher than $10 dollars long term. It is starting to lose steam and there are already signs of it cracking.

If only I could short the market right now...


I took your recommendation and sold at $9.75.  I hope I won't be disappointed by your advice.

Yes, you will.

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August 11, 2011, 05:53:52 PM
 #18

I am just glad that the manipulator is consistent in setting up the trades beforehand where you can see it coming.

When it was $8 and he pumped it up to $12 I was ready. Unfortunately I got off at $10 instead of $12.

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August 11, 2011, 05:55:57 PM
 #19

speak of the devil...there he goes again

glad I sold at 10.1...I will see you on the other side of 8

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Edward50
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August 11, 2011, 07:23:42 PM
 #20

Seems really shaky now, falling down to 9.29. However, I heard that there is a bitcion conference. I do not know anything about this, but these things sometimes causes mini-rallies.

So I would proceed with caution as there is a chance for a mini-rally before the price goes back lower.

So my recommendation would be to honestly sit out, get ready to sell during the peak of the mini-rally. If you want to gamble, maybe you could pick some up now to dump, but do not hold it for long.




Empty your mind, be formless, shapeless — like water. Now you put water in a cup, it becomes the cup; You put water into a bottle it becomes the bottle; You put it in a teapot it becomes the teapot. Now water can flow or it can crash. Be water, my friend.
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