Is a Madmax outcome coming before 2020? Thus do we need anonymity?

[contagion]

Waterfall collapse of the Industrial Age to usher in the Knowledge Age

Although I think the trend of your observations (Knowledge Economy, etc.) is correct, these evolutions typically take longer than we think.

Just like the fall of the Berlin wall, bankrupt paradigms waterfall collapse to usher in the new.

http://kwout.com/cutout/9/i4/cr/wdc_bor.jpghttp://kwout.com/cutout/f/5p/bg/yjb_bor.jpghttp://kwout.com/cutout/h/vj/mj/bqs_bor.jpg

The physical economy is bankrupt because the economies-of-scale are too great and the maximum division-of-labor can not advance. It may seem valuable to you because the ruler you are using to measure with is the illusion of a massive $200 trillion global debt bubble. Society is trying to prop up that bankrupt Industrial Age paradigm with debt and socialism.

Knowledge production generates several orders-of-magnitude more value per human than the Industrial Age. Heck in just a few months in 1998, I (all by myself) wrote some software that was generating up to $30,000 a month in today's dollar. The internet has 10 times more population now.

Sorry the USA has lost the advantage of the waterways. That paradigm is dead. This is another reason China and Asia will rise, because they have more human capital and their economies aren't burdened with the political dead weight of an aging population that is not able to make the waterfall transition and $trillions of promises to boomers.

Knowledge workers will move to cities (this is already underway with integrated BPO communities for example in the Philippines), no need to move goods to remote sparsely populated locations. Besides, the physical goods are a small fraction of the wealth generated from knowledge work. There is no reason that Silicon valley has to be in the USA, it could be any where that knowledge workers congregate. And the knowledge workers will run away from the USA when it turns draconian when the economy implodes after 2016 and the totalitarian expropriation of wealth goes into hyperdrive.

Another two charts supporting my position of the death of stored capital and fixed capital investment Industrial Age model shows that interest rates and commodity prices have been declining inexorably since the damn of human civilization:

http://kwout.com/cutout/x/ke/6d/c36_bor.jpghttp://bigpicture.typepad.com/comments/images/cfn396_1.gif

Michael Pettis is apparently a highly respected observer of China and their economy.  I wish I had more time to read him, as I think he has China pretty well figured out (and it ain't pretty in China).

Pettis expects a top-down restructuring of China to rebalance from an economy that is highly unbalanced in the fixed capital investment and Industrial Age paradigm, to a more balanced consumer share of the economy. In other words, China has been subsidizing global manufacturing at below cost, by massively expanding debt and stealing from the workers by suppressing interest rates and their import purchasing power with the Yuan peg.

I think Prof. Pettis is wrong and the Communist Party will lose control of China as the contagion of the global bankrupt paradigm domino collapses. This is why war between China and Japan is probably imminent, as the leaders of China try to invoke nationalism to retain their grip on power.

But I think by 2032 (perhaps as early as 2024), China and Asia will fracture away from control and emerge with bottom-up high performance in the Knowledge Age.

Understand the Chinese people are just going with the flow of the Communist Party system but every step since the 1980s has been greater and greater freedoms and more autonomous governance and business. Now I read that Christmas is sweeping China a popular fad and the leaders are trying to outlaw it (haha the people ignore the leaders). Asia has been bottled up in cronyism since the mid 1900s, and now suddenly the cronyism is falling away because it is not viable economically, and the youth have woken up given the internet.

Even the youth in Japan want to get rid of the xenophobia.

[contagion]

Armstrong has been predicting events precisely to the day. The below $57 closing price for oil on Dec. 31, he predicted long ago (I saw it). There are many, many examples I have observed.

The build up to the waterfall crash is a 51.6 or 31.459 year cycle, but the final waterfall is about 8.6 years with the largest portion of the transition over 4.3 years.

Events change but the pattern of time and human nature repeats.

You can't preserve stored capital. The western governments are going to confiscate it also. Sorry it is all going poof (highly devalued relatively speaking) in the Knowledge Age. Sorry knowledge age workers don't need your stored capital. The capital startup costs are near 0 now. Everybody has a computer. It is the intellectual capital that is extremely expensive.

We will permanently move to negative real interest rates. The coming crypto-currency of the Knowledge Age will be debased 5 - 10% per year. The Knowledge Age doesn't want to be enslaved by the power law distribution of stored capital. It wants to motivate knowledge capital instead.

The negative interest rates are a sign of what is changing. Most people see them as corruption, because they don't understand the paradigm that is occurring. I am not referring to Communism, because the knowledge capital will still be power law distributed and this will be a free market, not a command economy. And the debasement of a decentralized crypto-currency won't be captured by corruption, rather it will be expended in electricity to secure the system and secure the freedom of the Knowledge Age from the slavery of stored capital.

You might as well spend it now. Enjoy your life.

Remember the Bible verse, you will throw your (worthless) silver and gold into the streets...look again at the commodity price chart for the inexorable decline.

[contagion]

so all this low inflation is symptom of illness and their cure is to print more 
 

http://memecrunch.com/meme/1Y6CY/i-m-not-even-mad/image.png

You hard resources and stored capital investor fools are misunderstanding the paradigm shift underway. The stored capital is the problem. It must be eliminated in order for the world to move forward into prosperity.

You can't preserve stored capital. The western governments are going to confiscate it also. Sorry it is all going poof (highly devalued relatively speaking) in the Knowledge Age. Sorry knowledge age workers don't need your stored capital. The capital startup costs are near 0 now. Everybody has a computer. It is the intellectual capital that is extremely expensive.

We will permanently move to negative real interest rates. The coming crypto-currency of the Knowledge Age will be debased 5 - 10% per year. The Knowledge Age doesn't want to be enslaved by the power law distribution of stored capital. It wants to motivate knowledge capital instead.

The negative interest rates are a sign of what is changing. Most people see them as corruption, because they don't understand the paradigm that is occurring. I am not referring to Communism, because the knowledge capital will still be power law distributed and this will be a free market, not a command economy. And the debasement of a decentralized crypto-currency won't be captured by corruption, rather it will be expended in electricity to secure the system and secure the freedom of the Knowledge Age from the slavery of stored capital.

You might as well spend it now. Enjoy your life.

Waterfall collapse of the Industrial Age to usher in the Knowledge Age

Although I think the trend of your observations (Knowledge Economy, etc.) is correct, these evolutions typically take longer than we think.

Just like the fall of the Berlin wall, bankrupt paradigms waterfall collapse to usher in the new.

...

The physical economy is bankrupt because the economies-of-scale are too great and the maximum division-of-labor can not advance. It may seem valuable to you because the ruler you are using to measure with is the illusion of a massive $200 trillion global debt bubble. Society is trying to prop up that bankrupt Industrial Age paradigm with debt and socialism.

Knowledge production generates several orders-of-magnitude more value per human than the Industrial Age. Heck in just a few months in 1998, I (all by myself) wrote some software that was generating up to $30,000 a month in today's dollar. The internet has 10 times more population now.

...

[contagion]

Why the geography of the USA vs. China has inverted (now a liability for USA, formerly for China)

If you are interested in the future, this may be the most important
economics insight you will ever read:

https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=355212.msg10023708#msg10023708

This may be the most important economics insight I've made. It is
fundamental and generative.

[contagion]

I wrote upthread that technology would always find a way to maintain anonymity. And now some evidence...

http://armstrongeconomics.com/2015/01/03/iris-scan-beaten-with-cell-phone-cameras/

Iris Scan Beaten with Cell Phone Cameras

A hacker has cracked at the Congress of the Chaos Computer Club, the thumbprint of Ursula von der Leyen and the iris of Chancellor Merkel.Therefore, the hacker used simple press photos of politicians. It appears that it is sufficient for a cell phone camera to fool biometric recognition systems, such as the Irsis scan.

[contagion]

I am scrambling the password of the 'contagion' account, so I will no longer be able to login nor post from that account name.

[iamback]

It's Over — officially:

http://www.nestmann.com/its-official-the-worldwide-bail-ins-are-coming

[iamback]

Armstrong clarifies that the year end closings have elected the bond market as the phase transition bubble for 2015.75!

http://armstrongeconomics.com/2015/01/06/the-bond-bubble-confirmed/
http://armstrongeconomics.com/2015/01/06/can-the-dow-correct-for-up-to-5-months/

He was unsure whether USA stocks would phase transition into 2015.75 peak or phase shift and align with private resources and peak well after 2016 as gold will. So now the market has spoken and it will be the latter.

[iamback]

Armstrong is incorrect; cybersecurity can exist

http://armstrongeconomics.com/2015/01/06/cybersecurity-is-anything-safe/

I had already detailed what needs to be done:

https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=864659.0

[CoinCube]

Again?!

Have you tried meditation?

Personally I always find AnonyMint's post to be both informative and very interesting. I often don't completly agree.  I suspect if I went through my own post history a good 25% would consist of me debating with him about one thing or another.

However, I have always found these debates to be highly interesting and informative. Case in point look at his most recent debate with aminorex here.

https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=355212.msg10052932#msg10052932

Its probably the most technical and in depth debate about inflation in cryptocurrency that I have ever seen on this forum.

I don't know the topic well enough to really contribute so I am staying out of this one but I am certainly following it and enjoying the arguments back and forth.

However, +1 for meditation, great stress reliever. I know I certanily could use a little sometimes.

Edit: Changed my mind and decided I can advance the discussion. Just needed to think about it a little first.
https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=355212.msg10076798#msg10076798

[iCEBREAKER]

I have always found these debates to be highly interesting and informative. Case in point look at his most recent debate with aminorex here.

https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=355212.msg10052932#msg10052932

Its probably the most technical and in depth debate about inflation in cryptocurrency that I have ever seen on this forum.

That wasn't a debate, that was a AM's usual assclowning providing an uncharacteristically useful foil for aminorex's devastating intelligence.

AM won't learn anything from it but the rest of us will, which is the point.

[iamback]

That wasn't a debate...

Correct. It was an ass whipping. Not that I intended it to be so humiliating, but it is not my fault if the other side is so weak.

...aminorex's devastating intelligence.

Got to love aminorex's 0% cost of time, as if we live forever, opportunity cost has no time component, time is perpetually free, and perpetual motion machines exist.

Definitely genius.    

I guess it takes one to know on eh?   You two can be peas in a pod.

[iamback]

I don't recall ever making any clear-cut counter-claim that a Mad Max outcome is not coming in the next few years.

OMG! Back peddling!

1. First they ignore you.
2. Then they attack you.
3. Then they join you.

[iCEBREAKER]

That wasn't a debate...

Correct. It was an ass whipping. Not that I intended it to be so humiliating, but it is not my fault if the other side is so weak.

...aminorex's devastating intelligence.

Got to love aminorex's 0% cost of time, as if we live forever, opportunity cost has no time component, time is perpetually free, and perpetual motion machines exist.

Definitely genius.    

I guess it takes one to know on eh?   You two can be peas in a pod.

That was more like watching a witless flake of plankton being eaten by a whale.  You learned nothing, yet contributed to a much larger/more intelligent system nonetheless.

Unfortunately I'm not qualified to share a pod with the mighty aminorex.  If I were, I wouldn't be almost as poor as you are!   

Unlike you, I know when I'm in the (remote) presence of someone with a 20-50 IQ point advantage and don't have a problem admitting it.

I can't wait to see how you rationalize the failure of the world to comply with Martinfoil and your 'Doomsday 2015.75' prediction.  Better start hedging that bet ASAP!

[iamback]

Unfortunately I'm not qualified to share a pod with the mighty aminorex.

What a useless blob if you don't think you have anything to offer which aminorex can't do.

I know for a fact I can do things he can't do. And vice versa.

If I were, I wouldn't be almost as poor as you are!  

Aliasing error. Take the measurement again in a year. Besides I am not poor when measured in knowledge and ability. I am poor in health, which has been the major factor in my non-production. The other is wasting time on idiot, non-constructive, jealous obstructionists.

Unlike you, I know when I'm in the (remote) presence of someone with a 20-50 IQ point advantage and don't have a problem admitting it.

I regularly found errors in aminorex's posts, especially when he makes statements about crypto-currency, but I don't usually bother to point them out (because it is a waste of my time!).

I can't wait to see how you rationalize the failure of the world to comply with Martinfoil and your 'Doomsday 2015.75' prediction.  Better start hedging that bet ASAP!

There has not been any such failure.

2015.75 is the start of the BIG BANG. It is when the USA reaches the top of its current up trajectory and starts to head down. It doesn't mean we will all be starving and shivering in the dark in October. It will take some years for the collapse to ensue and amplify in effect.

Armstrong has been saying since 2012, when he correctly predicted the capital flows to return to the dollar, that US stock market phase transition could be delayed into the 2015.75 - 2017 timeframe. He had often stated that he would not know the answer until the closing of 2014. Exactly as he predicted, the market gave him this answer with the Treasury bonds elected THREE YEARLY REVERSAL signals.

Thus he now knows the phase transition will first be in Treasury bonds to peak 2015.75, then we enter the BIG BANG of sovereign debt collapse.

STFU mofo.

[iCEBREAKER]

I can't wait to see how you rationalize the failure of the world to comply with Martinfoil and your 'Doomsday 2015.75' prediction.  Better start hedging that bet ASAP!

There has not been any such failure.

2015.75 is the start of the BIG BANG. It is when the USA reaches the top of its current up trajectory and starts to head down. It doesn't mean we will all be starving and shivering in the dark in October. It will take some years for the collapse to ensue and amplify in effect.

Armstrong has been saying since 2012, when he correctly predicted the capital flows to return to the dollar, that US stock market phase transition could be delayed into the 2015.75 - 2017 timeframe. He had often stated that he would not know the answer until the closing of 2014. Exactly as he predicted, the market gave him this answer with the Treasury bonds elected THREE YEARLY REVERSAL signals.

Thus he now knows the phase transition will first be in Treasury bonds to peak 2015.75, then we enter the BIG BANG of sovereign debt collapse.

STFU mofo.

There you go!  I knew you would have some nice hedging ready to deploy as the 15.75 date draws near.   

Oh, suddenly it's not a deadline but just the 'beginning of the end?'  How convenient for you to avoid measurable metrics of the truth/falsity of Martinfoin's magical AI predictions and retreat into the more traditional old 'The End is Nigh' and coming Soon^TM eschatology.

"Current up trajectory?"  "Starts to head down?"  Did you miss the beginning of the Great Recession in 2008?

"Some years?"  LOL, that magical AI program sure is vague when it comes down to actually producing useful information instead of selling newsletters, bilking investors, and defying judges.

At least Jim Willie has the guts to keep saying this is the final year of the petrodollar's reserve currency status, even if he's wrong!

[iamback]

Oh, suddenly it's not a deadline but just the 'beginning of the end?'

Suddenly? Have you not noticed the year 2020 on the subject of the thread mofo?

Why do you get to slobber all over my thread?

And 2015.75 is still the apex or inflection point of the sovereign debt BIG BANG. Nothing has changed since the thread was started.

[iamback]

I am exasperated at the petty devolution of a serious concern about the world into a petty ego contest.

My gosh the jealousy of 5 year olds throwing sand when they think I am boasting my Tonka has 18 wheels and implying theirs is only a pickup. But I never did pick that fight. They came after me to do the hatchet job.

[iamback]

You're being self-critical and self-hateful without even realising it

You can invent any interpretation that you want, but it doesn't mean that was the intended meaning of my writings.

I wrote here about a serious concern for the world. You turn it into a petty ego battle. Sorry I am not responsible for you. You are responsible for your actions.

[iamback]

I can't intake orally anything with sugar or chocolate since I became chronically ill roughly since 2009 or 2010.