Is a Madmax outcome coming before 2020? Thus do we need anonymity?

[UnunoctiumTesticles]

http://blog.mpettis.com/2014/11/china-europe-and-optimal-currency-zones/#comment-98551

...believe convicted felons on claims...

He did a plea bargain to get out of jail. He was never convicted with evidence. In fact, among other numerous anomalies in his favor, he even confronted the corrupt judge in his court showing proof the judge was changing the court record, and the judge couldn't deny it. You have a habit lately of making proclamations without sufficient understanding of the subject matter.

There’s always a tradeoff between precision and accuracy.

You apparently do not understand mathematically what the terms mean.

Precision is related to the standard deviation and accuracy is a function of the sampling rate and sampling interval, because the Shannon-Nyquist theorem informs us that aliasing error (i.e. loss of accuracy) occurs if we sample below twice the highest frequency and for less duration than double the longest-tail.

So precision is a function of the variability of the data set. And accuracy is a function of the sampling quality. Armstrong's model has sampled massive amounts of data from the entire recorded history of mankind. The precision of the model is dictated by nature. Apparently nature has some very precise cycles around the movement of international capital flows and the business cycle.

I agree with you on the US incarceration problem (especially who it targets). It’s largely a result of the drug war...

It wasn't until after the massive DHS grants following 9/11 (Federal Dept of Homeland Security) that so many local law enforcement departments started to obtain heavy artillery such as armored tank-like vehicles. And it is well documented (Gary Webb, Oliver North, etc.) that the drug war was another massive corruption involving the government, HUD, etc, but I won't detail that in this blog (please don't debate me on that minutiae here, email me if you want).

...but that’s got little to do the structural advantages of the US (primarily geographic, but others exist as well). No matter what idiot you’ve got running policy, you can’t screw up having the largest navigable waterway across the Greater Mississippi Basin or bordering two oceans on two different sides or having some of the world’s most fertile farmland in the world (Kansas).

Just look how the Perónists have bankrupted Argentina, once one of the richest countries in the world with a similar massive swath of fertile plains (they even have the tornadoes).

But you are way off the mark by targeting physical resources and transport. That is all very low value. We are in the fledgling knowledge age and all high value is created in high tech. The old resource based and industrial economy is peanuts and will become ever more so. So this NSA crap and now the drive to regulate the internet as a public utility is going to kill the high tech goose that laid the golden eggs. Did you notice India just orbited Mars with a project cost of only $74 million. Reality check your hubris.

[UnunoctiumTesticles]

http://blog.mpettis.com/2014/11/china-europe-and-optimal-currency-zones/#comment-98896

@Suvy,
Well I have only been writing since years ago on Michael's blog about the need for decentralized systems and simulated annealing being nature's only known optimization method for dynamic systems. I have mentioned Taleb's Antifragility both in this blog and on my "blog" in the "Information Is Alive!" essay.

The more degrees-of-freedom in a system, the more granular adjustments to change can be.

You raise the fundamental natural quagmire that capital follows a power-law distribution, because the majority of people are contented to not devote their vocation to capital accumulation and the Iron Law of Collective Political Economics.

The way nature deals with this is by destroying (decaying) capital at a sufficient rate such that capital aggregation can't subsume innovation. When you have central banks that have been captured by the large capitalists, they attempt to violate this natural decay. They do fail in the end but not without great overshoot and dislocation since the process is a discontinuous event. For example, the capitalists can accumulate as much fiat and hard assets as they want, but this genre of capital is decaying and losing value in the fledgling knowledge age. Knowledge can't be financed, and thus can't be printed by central banks.

So we really don't have to do anything. Nature has been winning since the beginning of the dawn of time thus I doubt nature will lose this time around.

We don't like the waves of boom and bust that result from this epic battle between capital aggregation and nature's "it will grow wings and fly away", but nature never promised us a boring, smooth ride.

Relish the discontinuities. These are the time great fortunes are lost and made. I've been preparing.

In more concrete terms, I expect technological innovation on the concept of money as I have been alluding to decentralized crpto-currency. The world simply won't be able to agree on a global, centralized, digital, real-time retail digit fast enough any other way. The global monetary reset will come far too late to fulfill the need for a this by the high tech sector well before 2032. We will begin trading our knowledge decentrally. You can see the beginnings of this in terms of trade on social networks and for example smartphone apps. The 3D printers are coming. Etc.. I can't see it all, but I expect massive acceleration of this as we write this.

Note there will be fiat monetary reset for that old world sector of the economy, which will probably still be significant in relative size compared to the knowledge economy even by 2032 but small enough that prosperity has taken over and we can stop the wars that will occur between now and then.

http://blog.mpettis.com/2014/11/china-europe-and-optimal-currency-zones/#comment-99056

For current 51.6 year Private wave, sovereign debts all over the world are doing pretty good. I am not sure I understand what he means then.

The Private wave is a shift away from government. We can see governments being overthrown, riots, sovereign debt collapses already. Each downturn in the ECM (1981.35, 1989.95, 1998.55, 2007.15, 2015.75, 2024.35, 2032.95) will see greater contagion and the core economies will eventually be taken down. Each upturn (1985.65, 1994.25, 2002.85, 2011.45, 2019.05, 2027.95) will see a temporary deadcat bounce for government. After 2032 we get a waterfall capitulation so that we hit rock bottom and can begin a move back towards Public assets and trusting government—government will be much smaller percent of GDP by then. The early seeds of the failure of government began as early as the beginning of the sovereign bond bubble with peaking interest rates in 1981 (inflation due to baby boomers entering the work force), Japan's peaking in 1989, the institution of hedonics in 1994 in the USA to obscure the level of CPI inflation,  Long Term Capital Management fiasco that almost set off a global contagion in 1998, etc.. all were right on time as expected by the global ECM model. He also has country specific models which have different phases.

[UnunoctiumTesticles]

Raise Your Hand Idiot Reader If You Claim Armstrong Was Guilty

http://blog.mpettis.com/2014/11/china-europe-and-optimal-currency-zones/#comment-98553

Yea, right. Armstrong plead guilty to criminal conspiracy. You can even find his guilty plea online.

I wonder what he’s NOT telling us.

Since you continue to pontificate without doing your homework, then you have compelled me to spend several hours of my scarce time to do it for you, because I refuse to allow you to slander an innocent man.

The intentional ridicule implicit in his joke about being promised pizza should have tipped you off about the sincerety of his “guilty plea”.

He was forced under duress to plead guilty.

http://economicedge.blogspot.com/2009/11/martin-armstong-forced-to-move-to-high.html

... was basically TORTURED. According to Martin’s younger sister, Nancy, he was locked in solitary confinement for almost the entire 7 years duration, suffering days on end and at times was intentionally awaken every hour or so all night long, night after night, in an attempt to get him to sign a confession. He was repeatedly told that he would not get the chance to see his 91 year old mother alive again if he did not sign the confession. This took place off and on for SEVEN YEARS. Then one day a huge convict, “a known homicidal maniac” named George, was locked in his cell with him where he proceeded to beat and strangle him until he thought he was dead. Later, according to Armstrong, a fellow inmate stated that the guards watched the beating and refused to open the door to stop it. He lost most of his teeth, and now, over two years later is still missing them because the prison system only has one dentist for over 5,000 inmates. He suffered a detached retina, broken ribs and other internal injuries that left him in intensive care.

They offered him a plea agreement to TIME SERVED if he would plea guilty and after 7 years, he could take no more and agreed, obviously under heavy duress

http://www.topix.com/forum/business/TS8IHELKS6G8FDV65/post2

John  Jersey City, NJ
#2 Aug 15, 2006
Now that his trial date is coming up the federal prison that he is in has put him in solitary confinement, which takes away his possibility of using all the documents, library, computer, etc. in order to form a defense. He is also only allowed one phone call every two weeks, making it even harder to contact the outside world and put together a defense. If there are any journilist out there that would like to inquire about this please see the contact info below.
MCC NEW YORK
METROPOLITAN CORRECTIONAL CENTER
150 PARK ROW
NEW YORK, NY 10007
MapQuest� Map and Directions1
Ph: 646 836 6300
Fx: 646 836 7751
E-mail address: NYM/EXECASSISTANT@BOP.GOV2

http://armstrongeconomics.com/wp-content/uploads/2011/10/martin-armstrong-legal-update-092811.pdf

I provided the evidence how the SEC director picked the receiver, then left the SEC and became a partner of O’Melveny & Myers. No mention of how the receiver became a director of Goldman Sachs yet still ran Princeton Economics. No mention of Mr. Schiavoni’s email demanding the model or they would shut down the Princeton Economic Institute. No mention that the CFTC lawyer who crafted the allegations was disbarred for falsifying evidence after handling the Sumitomo copper manipulation that did not name any US banks, only Japanese. No word as to how I could be held in contempt AFTER Republic National Bank paid back $606 million or pocketing Princeton’s $400 million yet I was held for the next 7 years when I owed nothing.

...

How our firm can be gathering evidence against organized market manipulations as GATA and others were trying to do and then the Government seized our firm misrepresenting contracts that PURCHASED portfolios as part of a bail out in Japan claiming they were SOLICITATIONS for management and then appoints as a receiver who becomes a board member of one of the very firms we were investigating, confiscates all the evidence we gathered , alters transcripts that Judge Owen publicly had to admit, and then they kept me in prison on contempt refusing to release me at any time even if friends put up the FULL amount of cash they claimed to be looking for, is just uncivilized.

Now, one Government employee has come forward SUBMITTING under oath in the Court of Appeals in Washington, DC, an affidavit admitting what every rational person knew stating the Government conceded there was NO sufficient evidence against me or Princeton Economics but they refused to release me unless I pled (see attached).

Meanwhile, evidence of what went on at the bank remains SEALED by the court and is not allowed to be released to the public. So much for the truth! Attorneys for HSBC sought and obtained a lifetime gag order to prevent me from EVER releasing evidence to the public to exonerate myself. One such telephone transcript shows how illegal trades were being stuffed in to our hedging accounts:

He (Armstrong) doesn’t know that, though. He doesn’t know what you do in A (Account) though right? Not really. He doesn’t know what he does in any of them No, he doesn’t.

Disclosure prevented by order of Judge McKenna

Another obvious fact is that Republic National Bank pled guilty, paid $606 million in January 2002. All the bankers agreed to return the funds as long as they were NOT charged. So if everyone was made WHOLE in January 2002, why was I not released? ... If I owed NO restitution, then WHY did the Government keep me in prison for the next 7 years to turnover assets for something I did not owe?

...

When a Federal Judge admits publically that he was altering the transcripts in court after the fact, then how can anyone trust what is taking place in Federal courts anymore?

http://www.bangkokbusinessbrief.com/2012/10/26/martin-armstrong-fraud-or-genius/

To avoid a potentially damning trial for the bank, this is where the contempt of court situation arose. And why some believe Armstrong was charged and jailed because of the length of time he was held, but this is not the case he says.
“To prevent a trial they created a contempt of court situation – which is not a crime. A judge can say, ‘I think you should do this and I’m going to put you in jail until you do it.’ The judge directed me to turn over assets and the court officer Tancred Shiavoni further demanded my computer model source be turned over to the court as well. They claimed this was in case I owed something upon conviction but in the end I didn’t owe anything – the bank did.
“And because it’s not a ‘crime’ and the judge is not ‘punishing’ you, you are not entitled to lawyers or a trial. They kept me in jail for seven years for assets that maybe I might owe, but didn’t at the end of the day.

...

“The only reason I was [ever finally] released [in 2011] is because we got the case to the Supreme Court and they asked the prosecutors, why is this man in prison? There were three postponements and then they finally just released me to prevent the Supreme Court from ruling.

http://armstrongeconomics.com/2014/05/29/is-the-new-world-order-cracking-apart/

I have been confronted directly. I have had my family threatened and wrote a letter to SEC prosecutor Dorothy Heyl and bluntly stated if Alan Cohen and Tancred Schiavoni did not stop threatening my family I would commit suicide to protect them but I would not go quietly. I had given friends letters that would be publish if push that far. She had them back off. Then I faced the evil duo. I was told to confess to being in a conspiracy with Edmond Safra who I believe Putin killed for trying to take over Russia by blackmailing Yeltsin and I would be released. I laughed and said no way.

In the movie coming out, someone from government has come forward and stated on camera he was told they had no evidence against me and were just trying to break me. The FBI showed up at his house the day before the interview and tried to intimidate him. He had the guts to tell them to get out.

http://armstrongeconomics.com/2013/09/04/the-truth-about-solitary-confinement/

Unfortunately, it is standard torture practices used in the Justice Department to ensure they get their 98% plea rate so they never have to go to trial. In my own case, they came out and told me to my face they did not want to go to trial. They offered two deals. I refused, so off to solitary confinement you go. They will do whatever it takes to break people. Solitary is no joke.

... Schiffer. It turned out Judge Owen caused him to commit suicide hanging himself stripped of counsel and harassed by government on every front. Some people just cannot endure this type of treatment. This is how they get their pleas – threats and torture.

http://armstrongeconomics.com/2014/10/22/entire-court-in-california-had-to-step-down-all-judges/

I forced Judge Owen to publicly admit he was changing my transcripts on September 23, 2003. Judge Owen had thrown the Associated Press out on April 27th, 2000 creating a closed secret court proceeding that is totally illegal. As an American citizen I was supposed to have a public trial – good one! The AP actually printed that it was a closed court proceeding.

The AP reported I had stated from the outset Republic stole the money. You cannot get $1 billion out of a bank and nobody knows where it is. That kind of money can only be wired, yet they pretended to be looking for something Republic had all the time.

http://armstrongeconomics.com/2014/11/15/judge-rakoff-blasts-the-injustice-of-america/

I agreed to allow a documentary film the FORECASTER to be made following me around since 2011 that is more of a movie when you see it for two reasons. To expose the legal system to the world and to expose the truth behind the shenanigans behind the curtain the rigging of the financial markets. I was not interested in a poor me film since I have moved on. I do not need the sympathy thank you. It has contributed to the expansion of my knowledge.

Yet I respect that if government could do this to me, who was very high-profile internationally, they could do it to anyone. They plastered pictures of me with Margaret Thatcher in the press as a warning to other US politicians to stay back. Whatever these people do, they do for a self-interest of power to sustain their 99% conviction rate. You have indeed a better chance at winning the lottery than a getting any kind of fair trial.

I was fortunate to be able to handle myself with respect to the rule of law. Others have not faired so well. The SEC in a civil case took all the lawyers away from Steven Fisher and drove him to commit suicide.

http://armstrongeconomics.com/research/rule-of-law/goldman-sachs-v-armstrong/

I kept track of all the countless market manipulations that the Untouchables were orchestrating. There were a number of us around the world who monitored what they were doing just to ensure we did not get caught up in their manipulations. Every phone call was recorded to ensure that if I was ever sued in what I thought was an honest court, I could prove my sources. Every manipulation they did from rhodium to platinum to interest rates, Russia and politicians were always documented. The wealth of investigative material in an honest world would have brought down the New York Investment bankers and sent them away to prison for life if not wound them on the gallows for treason. All of this material was not gathered with any idea of using it against them – but to be able to advise clients what they were up to next. At our March 1999 Tokyo Conference, we warned publicly that the “club” was then targeting the Japanese yen for the seasonal rollover. We advised our Japanese client to lock in their trade to defeat that manipulation. They did and the yen moved from the 116 level up to 124 causing massive losses to the “club”. Here is our slide presentation for that Conference in Tokyo. ... the SEC requested Alan Cohen to be the receiver who just so happened to be their hand picked judge’s Richard Owen’s former law clerk. It then came out early on that Alan Cohen somehow found out I had given audio tapes covering the organized trading of the “club” manipulating markets and threatened my lawyers if they did not produce all the tapes, they were to be thrown in prison. Everyone I had spoke to about the manipulations on an ongoing basis had been documented. That would have been enough to shut down the New York Investment Bank manipulations. Phone calls with numerous dealing desks around the world documented every manipulation and scam they had pulled off from bribing government official to targeting countries. It was not my intent to run to the authorities and say here is the evidence to shut down the bankers. This was to purely advise clients when to duck. It certainly appears highly suspicious to everyone that Alan Cohen would then be appointed a board member of Goldman Sachs head of Global Compliance when Goldman would NEVER had hired someone from the outside who clearly did not even understand markets. Alan Cohen liquidated the open yen positions we had in our accounts assuming they were speculation when they were a hedge. He lost I believe $100 million in short order. How could Goldman hire someone who did not even know the difference between a hedge and a speculative trade. ... all the evidence we gathered that would have put all the bankers in prison for life, magically disappeared in the collapse of the SEC Building World Trade Cent 7 that amazingly was not even hit by an plane in the 911 attack. This has been yet another part of the amazing coincidence behind everything in this case. Our computers and all the evidence in our case, including the evidence gathered documenting more than a decade of organized manipulations were amazingly destroyed in the only building that was never hit by anything nor was there any major fire. This in itself has led to countless suspicions about what really went on behind the collapse of the SEC offices in World Trade Center 7. Here is a video on this strange set of circumstances plus a letter from the SEC claiming all evidence in my case was destroyed, ...

http://armstrongeconomics.com/1113-2/schiavoni-cohen-of-goldman-sachs-demands-source-code-of-model/

I know if I turned over the [model’s] source code, they could kill me ...

http://armstrongeconomics.com/2013/02/09/indefinite-detention/

It took me more than 10 years to get that partially overturned only when I submitted transcripts of their employees on phone calls deciding what account to hide their losses in, they had the audacity to argue I could not even show these transcripts to a court!  They were hiding losses in accounts where there was never supposed to be any trading. (09-1260 Sealed exhbiits).

They would never go to trial and were simply indefinitely imprisoning me until I would say whatever they demanded. The Second Circuit decision was done by George Bush’s cousin – Judge John Walker, Jr. wrote the opinion in which even now Supreme Court Justice Sonya Sotomayor disagreed writing: “Judge Walker’s opinion suggests that there is no discernible outer bound on a court’s inherent power to detain a contemnor indefinitely.”

Why would Cohen never produce an order? Because behind closed doors they could demand things they did not want to admit publicly. Here is an email confirming they wanted me to turn over the SOURCE code to our model or they would shut down Princeton Economics (Hecht Emails).

I appealed the contempt to the Supreme Court and Judge Walker’s insane opinion that judges could do as they liked and the Constitution did not apply. The Supreme Court ordered the government to reply.

http://armstrongeconomics.com/693-2/2012-2/the-rapidly-approaching-demise-of-japan-2/

Like Goldman Sachs has infiltrated governments worldwide, in Japan, it is MOF that is close to the bankers and it is MOF that has always controlled government. Kenji Eda to publish a book in March entitled: “Finance Ministry Mind Control: The frightening methods of finance ministry bureaucrats, who brainwashed Prime Minister Noda to engineer the tax increase.” This indicates the truly realization of what is taking place in Japan and why Japan will collapse into a final 26 year economic low.

...

In the case of Princeton Economics, MOF issued a letter saying that $30 billion in notes had been sold and $10 billion was supposed to be on deposit at Republic Bank in New York. They sent their letter to the Federal Reserve many believe intentionally for retaliating against our forecast delivered live in Tokyo that the LDP would lose power and that meant also MOF. When MOF lost power in 1998, it appears they deliberately lied to the Federal Reserve and then tried to pretend it was a mistake. For an agency in charge of manipulating the yen, it was not plausible to have made a decimal error in a calculation of this magnitude. They caused Republic to panic, who then stole about $1 billion grabbing what they thought they could and ran to the US authorities who simply filed charges without ever picking up the phone to speak to a single note-holder. To then find out that MOF then said sorry, they made a mistake on the calculation of the yen to the dollar and it was off on a decimal place was not plausible. They turned $3 billion in notes into $30 billion – 3 time the value of Republic Nstional Bsnk thst was sold to HSBC for $10 billion. When the dust settled, it turned out to be $3 billion sold, only $1 billion outstanding, and HSBC/Republic grabbed that, had to plead guilty and return the funds to receiver 100% immunity from the US government.

It was widely believed among our clients in Japan that MOF was deliberately trying to stop Princeton forecasts that they too did not like in retaliation for our forecast that the LDP would lose & MOF with it.

http://armstrongeconomics.com/2014/05/04/conspiracy-or-just-one-step-at-a-time/

Yes, the CIA wanted me to build a computer for them after our model predicted the collapse of Russia That the FT broadcast in advance on its front page of the second section. True I declined. It is also true that within 6 months PEI was attacked. I have a copy of the slide presentation prepared by the lawyers for Republic National Bank that outright lied misrepresenting their illegal trading as me to hide those losses from the Japanese when I owned the accounts – not the Japanese.

...

Safra then had to reduce his personal shares by $1 billion and agree to indemnify HSBC. Why? If the public got anything less, then they would have sued Republic/HSBC and the truth would come out. So Edmond took the haircut personally to prevent any lawsuit by shareholders.

I have the documents.

...

The Princeton office was raided and Socrates was unplugged and taken to a special lab in NYC located in the World Trade Center – the old Saloman Brother’s building. They turned it on and discovered it had self-destructed. They then in writing demanded I turnover the source code or PEI would be shut down. I said go ahead, you will never get the code.

So here you have evidence that this has nothing to do with pretend missing money. The US press ignored the simple fact that how could you get $1 billion out of a bank and nobody knows where it is? That is a 747 full of cash. Was I supposed to walk into the bank with a brown paper bag?

...

in reality the notes were in yen not dollars and now Republic only needs to pay $650 million but the yen remained the same. Then 30 days later, it is now $606 million. Owens handed HSBC $400 million in profits belonging to Princeton.

Amazingly, when it comes to the banks, suddenly the government lawyers understand the transactions were in yen not dollars. Did they release me? Of course not. They would have to then admit they were wrong from the outset.

http://armstrongeconomics.com/2013/07/12/so-who-really-tried-to-blackmail-yeltsin-takeover-russia-nsa-cia-or-investment-bankers/

Perhaps the number one question I always get about the ordeal I went through and the sheer chaos that surrounded everything, was just who really was behind the plot to blackmail the former head of Russia Boris Yeltsin to stop him from running for reelection in 2000 and hand-pick Boris Abramovich Berezovsky? It is true I even had a meeting with the US Attorney Office on the subject when they realized that Republic National Bank and Edmond Safra had set up even Bank of New York as the center piece in the plot. As the players that surrounded me have mysteriously died, hanged themselves, been imprisoned, released, just saying they were denied a fair trial without explanation as with the nurse that supposedly killed Safra, this wild plot is still the classic who-done-it that may not be solved until someone gets the secret files tucked away on this one.

We cannot leave out Edmond Safra’s own mysterious murder in Monaco (Death in Monaco) that took the fire company hours to reach being just 10 minutes away while his more than 20 bodyguards were all given the night off and reported bullets in his body with his nurse saying Russians dressed as ninjas showed up.

What I do know is there appears to have been a plot to take over Russia and that came from sources directly in Russia at the time. My case began September 13th, 1999 and Safra was killed December 3rd. Within a week the government moved to put me in contempt and stop my request for a Speedy Trial. It came out in court that bullets were left in my mailbox to warn me to shut up. But I was in the public spot light so they created a contempt and threw me in [prison without a trial] to suspend everything.

Suvy please don’t waste my time again with your laziness. You are younger than me with more free time to burn. And you are the student. Please respect that reality.

[UnunoctiumTesticles]

Any reader who thinks we don't have a totalitarian police state in the USA, should try to explain away Armstrong's well documented, egregious case. Don't forget that the USA can now legally send the military after you and "make you shut up" without any due process nor habeas corpus.

http://armstrongeconomics.com/2013/02/09/indefinite-detention/

So when the Supreme Court ordered the government to explain what the hell was going on, they realized they would lose. You have to at least charge someone. Now, there was not even a charge. Therefore, I was released to prevent the Supreme Court from ruling against them. What did they do then? They used the terrorist nonsense as the excuse to now indefinitely imprison anyone at any time without even charging them, lawyers, or a right to trial. The rumor is they used Lindsey Graham threatening him because he is gay and if he did not strip Americans of all rights, he would be exposed.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=9ni-nPc6gT4

Now a journalist Chris Hedges and several others sued the Obama Administration on the grounds of it being unconstitutional to indefinitely hold citizens as they did to me without charges, lawyers, or a right to a trial. Judge Katherine Forrest agreed it was unconstitutional and issued an injunction to prevent the government from doing so. This was immediately appealed by the Obama Administration for they are really indistinguishable from George Bush when it comes to expanding government power and destroying the Constitution. The Obama Administration appealed to the higher court – where? Second Circuit Court of Appeals of New York. That court, naturally with the speed of a bullet, instantaneously issued a temporary stay on the injunction allowing the government to indefinitely detain anyone it desires.

The notorious Second Circuit, perhaps the most anti-constitution court in the USA, will make the decision. The way this goes, if they side with the government, you can appeal to the Supreme Court but they take only perhaps 100 out of 10 thousand petitions. If the government lost, whenever they appeal, they are normally granted the right to be heard by the Supreme Court. So if the Second Circuit sides with government, the burden is then on the citizen to show why this case should be heard.

First they came for the Socialists, and I did not speak out—
Because I was not a Socialist.

Then they came for the Trade Unionists, and I did not speak out—
Because I was not a Trade Unionist.

Then they came for the Jews, and I did not speak out—
Because I was not a Jew.

Then they came for me—and there was no one left to speak for me

[UnunoctiumTesticles]

http://esr.ibiblio.org/?p=6537&cpage=1#comment-1309818

Eric, were you born yesterday?

The militarization of the police will not be allowed to be challenged nor be brought to the light of a public trial.

Fivethirtyeight.com published a statistic: in 2010, US attorneys prosecuted 162,000 cases, and only 11 times did a grand jury NOT return an indictment. If a grand jury does not return an indictment, the prosecutor didn't want them to.

There is no obligation to present all the evidence because the Supreme Court has ruled that the Grand Jury is NOT entitled to all the evidence, since the trial jury will correct any deficiencies. There should have been an indictment and then let the PUBLIC see all the evidence. Hiding this incident in such a manner will NEVER satisfy not merely the black community, but the entire world. The worst of the worst is that the Grand Jury proceedings are secret. No judge is present at the proceedings which are led by a prosecutor who is routinely pro-government. The target “defendant” has no right to even be present his case or to be informed of the proceedings secretly being conducted behind the scenes. There is no right to a lawyer in the Grand Jury. Among the legal community, Grand Jury indictments are considered a JOKE and the typical phase one hears among lawyers concern the rules are so one sided, the government could indict a “ham sandwich”.

Surely you will censor my post as always, even though you promised I was unbanned the last time I corrected you. I post on your blog roughly every 6 months now, so why can't you handle [the] intellectual challenge?

P.S. It is expected that those with a low IQ can't comprehend why there is no inconsistency between the above and my other post on Ferguson.

[UnunoctiumTesticles]

---------------------------- Original Message ----------------------------
Subject: Raise Your Hand Idiot Reader If You Claim Armstrong Was Guilty
From:    AnnoyMint
Date:    Thu, November 27, 2014 5:01 am
To:      "Armstrong Economics"
--------------------------------------------------------------------------

A compilation of information about Armstrong's case:

https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=365141.msg9666280#msg9666280

Also you may find my other posts recently in that same thread to be very
lucid and helpful. I also suggest Armstrong can learn something (at least
about how to communicate more unambiguously and also substantive points
I've added) from reading how I dissect and augment.

I agree with Armstrong on most points and of course have explained his
model (more lucidly than Armstrong does) to mainstream economists such as
Michael Pettis recently.

However the one remaining significant disagreement I have with Armstrong
is that Armstrong thinks that the NY Club banksters are the extent of any
global network that could have aims on directing the final outcome of
coming global crisis towards a global NWO monetary unit and governance.
Armstrong saw behind the curtain the political and regulatory capture
corruption, but the globalists sit at a higher level of abstraction that
Armstrong would never be able to correlate from his data. They are much
more sophisticated than these goons at the grunt bankster level. Their aim
is simply supranational control over finance. They understand, "I care not
who makes the laws if I control the money supply", because "he who owns
the gold makes the rules".

And Armstrong thinks it is impossible to have a global agreement about
certain aspects of governance, such as harmonization of international
trade and finance. He is going to end up very wrong on this. Mark my word.
I hope he lives long enough to see which of us was correct.

[UnunoctiumTesticles]

---------------------------- Original Message ----------------------------
Subject: Armstrong's miscalculation on the global elite
From:    AnnoyMint
Date:    Thu, November 27, 2014 10:00 am
To:      "Armstrong Economics"
--------------------------------------------------------------------------

One thing I can agree with is whether by design or not, the nation-states
are being fractured internally and reduced to such chaos that they won't
function with any sufficient economy-of-scale without regional integration
and discipline (order). This old world economy is orthogonal to the
fledgling knowledge based economy, the latter can scale decentralized but
the former can not.

The global economy is bifurcating as I had outlined in my seminal essays
and which CoinCube themed "Economic Devastation" which became a prominent
thread on bitcointalk.org.

> The higher echelon globalists' objectives in the Ukraine are the same
> as being displayed all over the world, which is Balkanization i.e.
> fracturing of nation states in the move towards regional government
> (for example Iraq is divided into three regions in the elites' Greater
> Middle East Project map).

[UnunoctiumTesticles]

---------------------------- Original Message ----------------------------
Subject: why sovereignty for Scotland would fail even in a free market
From:    AnnoyMint
Date:    Fri, November 28, 2014 6:59 am
To:      "Armstrong Economics"
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I didn't explain well in a way that Martin can understand from the
perspective of international capital flows.

Martin thinks that if for example Scotland could vote for sovereignty,
then it could be a safe haven for and receive a huge influx of capital. He
thinks this could lead the way back towards freedom and back from the
cliff-towards-the-abyss of oppressive governance we are facing and
approaching.

What Martin fails to factor into his analysis is that there isn't enough
investment opportunity in Scotland to absorb that capital and thus it
would end up as a huge bubble that would egress and collapse on itself,
destroying Scotland. This is what I mean about the old world economy
doesn't have enough economy-of-scale for nations that go it alone.

The global economy is bifurcating splitting into the old economy of hard
resources and industrialization which is of very low relative marginal
profit compared to the fledgling knowledge age economy paradigm shift
which is going to take over the world. The knowledge age grows
decentralized and doesn't have any borders, so economy-of-scale is not a
problem. Also the knowledge age doesn't require much MONETARY capital, because
knowledge is basically individual innovation (you need KNOWLEDGE capital). Basically you need a few
guys in a garage tinkering. Throwing more money at them won't produce a
better or faster result. Often the more money a start up has, the less
efficient they become due to the Mythical Man Month.

So the old world economy has no choice but to form alliances to try to
sustain itself in the face of the knowledge age which is so much more
profitable and lean. The majority of the population is not ready for nor
capable of jumping into the knowledge age, well especially the old people
in the West. Oxford did a study that concluded that 47% of all jobs would be
replaced by automation before 2032. India just orbited Mars with a measily $74 million budget.
The innovative youth are in the developing world. The future is there.

Martin with all his political writings is really wasting his time on the
old world economy. If he was smart, he'd spend his time creating
technology to push the knowledge age forward faster. All that political
talk is as inefficient as the old world economy is. It is for the old
people to waste their time ranting about in trailer parks.

Those who can’t build, talk:

http://esr.ibiblio.org/?p=3514

One thing I can agree with is whether by design or not, the nation-states
are being fractured internally and reduced to such chaos that they won't
function with any sufficient economy-of-scale without regional integration
and discipline (order). This old world economy is orthogonal to the
fledgling knowledge based economy, the latter can scale decentralized but
the former can not.

The global economy is bifurcating as I had outlined in my seminal essays
and which CoinCube themed "Economic Devastation" which became a prominent
thread on bitcointalk.org.

The higher echelon globalists' objectives in the Ukraine are the same as
being displayed all over the world, which is Balkanization i.e. fracturing
of nation states in the move towards regional government (for example Iraq
is divided into three regions in the elites' Greater Middle East Project
map).

[UnunoctiumTesticles]

We're fucked:

https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=877398.0

[UnunoctiumTesticles]

...This exhibits a lack of rationality.


Some of you think the tide is turning and the masses all over the world are waking up to the abuses of the USA government and other manifestations of the powers-that-be.

The greatest mistake anyone can make is to assume the majority will ever do the right thing. They never do. The majority is always wrong. If that were not the case, then evolution would stop functioning.

Any one who plans for the future based on hope in the system and the majority, is a sheeple cow and will prosper when society does and suffer when society does.

We westerners have experienced an amazingly long period of prosperity in the world and especially in the Western nations. This has been propped up by central banks which never allow any debt defaults to correct excesses and misallocations. Thus we've amassed a huge debt bubble that is going to pop with horrific implications on society-at-large.

The powers-that-be are well aware of how to manipulate this "awakening". As always, they turn idealism into fury and collective outcomes which empower their designs. They infiltrated the Black Panters during the Vietnam protest era. They helped to fuel the "free sex, free drugs" destruction of the boomers and western society. They were instrumental in the Bolshevik Revolution, etc.

They will unleash an economic implosion contagion, social unrest, violence, and upheaval. You will be so busy trying to survive all the crap that is hitting you in your daily life, that you won't have any time to sit down and produce anything. All your pontifications about you can do this and that, will fly out the window when you are too busy trying to avoid the daily violence and secure your food.

The growing hatred of the USA and the angst that will be spread, is fuel for the fire of burning the nation-state system to the ground, after which the weary burned out fury will welcome the one world governance savior to restore order.

The masses love chaos when they've been cooped up too long in a well controlled order. Let them fight for a while and grow weary then they will beg for order again and to be managed like the compliant sheeple they really are.

Because the majority are not leaders. The majority are sheeple and I think that includes you reader.

[CoinCube]

Seems everyone is using that statement about Armstrong's computer being self-aware to discredit him.

There are two interesting issues surrounding Mr. Armstrong.

1) That he was held in jail without being charged or convicted of a crime for seven years by a judge for being in "contempt of court"
2) His claim (to date unverifiable) that he has perfected or at least vastly improved on Kondratieff Wave analysis via computer modeling.

The first issue is simple judicial tyranny. It should bother any US citizen that someone can be held in jail for seven years without being charged, tried, or convicted of a crime. However, I am most interested in Armstrong's claim to have perfected Kondratieff Wave analysis.  

I would note that Armstrong is far from the first to promote the use of very long term cyclical modeling of the economy. Modeling of this type can be traced back to Nikolai Kondratieff who identified four stages of cyclic behavior and identified the as spring, summer, autumn and winter. Kondratieff calculated that a complete cycle or wave lasted for approximately 53 years. He published his theory in 1925 in his book "The Major Economic Cycles". Kondratieff overlaid his wave on world history and projected it forward.



Kondratieff also noted that those same 53 year economic cycles could be relied upon to mark major world conflicts. Below is the 53 year war cycle that was derived from his work and nestled within that a 17.7 year war cycle.






The best discussion of Kondratieff Wave analysis that I have come across was published by Grant Williams in his superb article The Consequences of the Economic Peace
(Note clicking the link will prompt you to sign up for the newsletter this can just be closed to proceed to the article)

So what happened to Mr. Kondratiev? He was accused by the soviets of being a member of a "Peasants Labour Party". Convicted as a "kulak-professor" and sentenced to 8 years in prison. In September 1938 during Stalin's Great Purge, he was subjected to a second trial, condemned to ten years without the right to correspond with the outside world and executed by firing squad on the same day the sentence was issued.
 

[UnunoctiumTesticles]

Must read:

http://armstrongeconomics.com/2014/12/04/the-euro-crisis-to-spread-to-a-world-crisis/

The Greek financial crisis began precisely to the day on our model for the start of the Sovereign Debt Crisis. That was truly amazing since we protected that ideal date in 1985.

...

I was blamed for starting the takeover boom in the 1980s that they made the movie Wall Street about. I transformed debt into a performing asset. You could borrow in a depreciating currency reducing your cost making 40%. It drove people crazy for those outside looking in could not understand what I was doing.

Conversely, Southern Europe in joining the Euro experienced exactly the opposite result. As the Euro rose in value, their national debts appreciated in REAL COST TERMS. The Euro rose from 82 cents in 2000 to $1.60 in 2008. Historically, whatever national debts that preexisted nearly doubled in real terms. This was extremely DEFLATIONARY. There was no possible way the Eurozone could survive under these conditions.

...

The Troika (EU, ECB, IMF) are incapable of even comprehending the magnitude of what has taken place. There seems to be little hope of dealing with the Euro Crisis because of the serious flaws in its design. As we head into 2015, [thus] there appears to be little hope against a rising dollar. This will be deflationary in the USA also raising the net real value of the dollar debts to everyone who have issued dollar debt in countless currencies to save interest. [Thus] The contagion will spread next year and we will see the turn down after 2015.75 will be far more confusing to these people who lack any comprehension of currency and the world economy.

And when did the Euro turn down recently?

You ignore Armstrong's model at your peril.

I should keep an eye out for the possibility that Europe could bounce until 2014.675. I need to search for facts that can tell me how long this bounce is likely to last. I don't want to be too early again, as I was on China last July 2012.

As I've been expecting, looks like we will get that a deadcat bounce in capital fleeing Europe and developing markets into the USA, which may put a temporarily top on the USA equities. Safe haven bond yields in Europe are increasing (exodus from safe havens) and US Treasury yields are declining (from recent dramatic rise) which is a combination of capital coming out of USA equities taking a breather, capital coming out of safe haven European bonds, and lower PPI placing doubt on Fed's Sept. taper.

...

Remember on Exter's Inverted Pyramid, that US federal reserve notes are at the bottom just above gold. Patience goldbugs, patience...

Armstrong is not a prophet. He is a scientist who created a model based on back testing all data since Mesopotamia and forward testing astoundingly precise correct predictions of the model since the 1980s. You really better click that link and review the facts on his model’s performance record. I don’t understand why any scientist would assert Armstrong is not applying the scientific method. The computer discovered the cyclical pattern from the historical data, not some numerology invented on a whim.

The image you displayed above is for the global turn from a Private to Public wave...

[UnunoctiumTesticles]

Cross-posting from the "Economic Devastation" thread, where CoinCube is also posting the same discussion as he did upthread.

If you wish to do meaningful economic analysis you need to start with meaningful numbers.  If you are starting your analysis with so called "GDP" measured in "fiat" by, uh, agencies..  well..  you got nothing to go on.  Bullshit from the start.

http://armstrongeconomics.com/2014/12/02/25432/

This forecast is based upon our proprietary index 1900=Par. The reason is simple. In 1985 the Euro did not exist. Therefore, how they patched that index we have not looked at carefully. It may exceed the 1985 high depending on its mix. In our index, it extends back much further and is far more comprehensive. You can see that the 1985 high is no longer a spike isolated high. We are flattening out the pattern and this warns of a rally. We are just the prettiest of the three ugly sisters – Japan – Europe – USA.  On their index, the low was 1992 compared to ours was 1995 which was the high in the yen against the dollar prior to this deflationary rally in recent years. The 1995 low was a retest of the highs of the Great Depression. This is the same general testing pattern we should see in gold – the retest of the 1980 high of $875.

Hashman, Armstrong is legit. He had even people collecting data from the archives of newspapers around the world, he spent $10 million in the 1970s to collect ancient silver coins so he could build the only detailed accurate chart of silver money of the Western Roman Empire. He claims he has spent over $1 billion (inflation adjusted) on data for his machine learning model of the global economy. The machine decided that international capital flows are what drives the economic shifts of the nations.

Considering how accurate his model as been (predicting events to the day, decades in advance), I believe him. You have no clue, until you dig. Read the entire Mad Max thread and bring yourself up to speed. Or don't. I don't care.

[UnunoctiumTesticles]

Grand Jury Does not Indict Cop Who Murdered Eric Garner — But the Man Who Filmed It

http://armstrongeconomics.com/2014/12/04/grand-jury-does-not-indict-cop-who-murdered-eric-garners-but-the-man-who-filmed-it/

If anyone thinks that there is really justice, you should re-read Thraysmachus who debated Socrates. Socrates wishfully believed that in a democracy the people would always be just compared to a tyrant. Thraysmachus disagreed. He warned that all forms of government act in the same identical manner because they only pursue their own self-interest. Hence, justice is merely the will of the stronger. This is precisely correct for this is also the explanation behind Adam Smith’s Invisible Hand. This is why Communism failed. It began to make all people equal, but ended elevating government over the people.

On Wednesday, a Staten Island grand jury decided not to return an indictment for the police officer who murdered Eric Garner, an unarmed black man, by placing him in a chokehold shortly before his death when the man was not resisting. Police are no longer the protectors of society, they have devolved into a military  force with no ethics or rules who see everyone of us as merely a probably threat.

...

A different Staten Island grand jury indicted Ramsey Orta, the man who filmed the entire incident in August, less than a month after filming the fatal July 17 confrontation in which Daniel Pantaleo and other NYPD police officers murdered Garner in plain view for allegedly selling untaxed cigarettes. The prosecutors wanted to imprison the camera man so like Coxley, they find some other law to charge him with in retaliation for filming what the police did. The grand jury was manipulated into indicting Orta on weapons charges stemming from an arrest by undercover officers.

Police alleged that Orta had slipped a .25 caliber handgun into a teenage accomplice’s waistband outside a New York hotel. Orta testified that the charges were falsely mounted by police in retaliation for his role in documenting Garner’s death, but the grand jury indicted Orta with a single felony count of third-degree criminal weapon possession and criminal firearm possession.

This illustrates the abuse that people are suffering at the hands of the police. When I worked in the law library, I had to review countless indictments on people. I began to see the same police names constantly coming up. There was a young black kid who looked visibly retarded. I saw the same police names charging him with possession of a gun. There were witnesses who said the police search him and found nothing. They searched him a second time and found nothing. They took him to the police van and suddenly in a third search they miraculously found a gun in his pants. I advised the kid to go to trial, not just because of the witnesses, but because of his appearance. The court appointed lawyer who never win cases to get such jobs, tried to get the kid to plead guilty as always. I encouraged him to go to trial. He won. My own count appointed lawyer then asked me how did it feel that I helped a criminal back on the street. I went to court and demanded he be removed.

The system is so corrupt nobody would believe it. The public actually think government is there to protect them, but they have no such feeling of obligation. It is always about them. Nobody has any 20 year plan even for the economy. All they care about is making the next election. With self-interest the primary mover, its is impossible to reform anything.

...

Government has abused their power to police and tax. They assume it will blow over and everything gets back to normal. That is true only up to a point. When the economy turns down very hard, the sparks will fly. This is what our computer model is warning. Everything is unfolding is precise manner that leads to very serious problems. Thomas Jefferson in the Declaration of Independence warned that the king was also protecting his people for committing crimes against the people. There he created “mock trials” to protect them – history has repeated once again. All government devolve to self-interest. Exercise your free speech and they will find something else to charge you with and pretend that is the reason you go to prison – never for what you said.

Everything is a conspiracy

HERE COMES THE RIOTS... (they will be chanting this rap song)

Rob Hustle - This is what happens when you call the cops

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=IlY9C6pzxKc

[aminorex]

accurate

[BADecker]

No. Way before 2020. Even before 2000. I watched the movie way before 2000.   

[Rassah]

Raise Your Hand Idiot Reader If You Claim Armstrong Was Guilty

*raises hand* At the least this bit was an interesting read http://nihoncassandra.blogspot.com/2006/08/enigma-of-martin-armstrong.html

[UnunoctiumTesticles]

http://armstrongeconomics.com/2014/12/10/it-is-now-a-felony-to-tape-the-police-abuse-in-illinois/

A new bill passed last week in Illinois would make it a felony to secretly tape any “private conversations,” with steeper punishments for those surreptitiously recording the police. Critics of the proposed law claim it would scare citizens from recording interactions with law enforcement, following a number of high-profile police killings caught on camera. Instead of protecting the people, once again the government circles the wagons and condones the killing of citizens by police without any accountability.

http://www.ilga.gov/legislation/BillStatus.asp?DocNum=1342&GAID=12&DocTypeID=SB&LegId=71864&SessionID=85&GA=98

Replaces everything after the enacting clause. Amends the Eavesdropping Article of the Criminal Code of 2012. Changes various definitions. Defines "surreptitious". Provides that a person commits eavesdropping when he or she knowingly and intentionally: (1) uses an eavesdropping device, in a surreptitious manner, for the purpose of overhearing, transmitting, or recording all or part of a private conversation to which he or she is not a party unless he or she does so with the consent of all the parties to the conversation; (2) uses an eavesdropping device, in a surreptitious manner, for the purpose of transmitting or recording all or any part of any private conversation to which he or she is a party unless he or she does so with the consent of all of the parties to the private conversation; or (3) intercepts, records, or transcribes, in a surreptitious manner, any private electronic communication to which he or she is not a party unless he or she does so with the consent of all other parties to the private electronic communication. Prohibits the use or disclosure of any information which he or she knows or reasonably should know was obtained from a private conversation or private electronic communication in violation of the Eavesdropping Article, unless he or she does so with the consent of all of the parties.

...

Provides that the eavesdropping of an oral conversation or an electronic communication of any law enforcement officer, State's Attorney, Assistant State's Attorney, the Attorney General, Assistant Attorney General, or a judge, while in the performance of his or her official duties, if not authorized by the Article or proper court order, is a Class 3 felony, and for a second or subsequent offenses, is a Class 2 felony (rather than a Class 1 felony). Adds a severability provision. Effective immediately.

Raise Your Hand Idiot Reader If You Claim Armstrong Was Guilty

*raises hand*

No need, we already knew that. You clearly displayed your ignorance upthread.

http://nihoncassandra.blogspot.com/2006/08/enigma-of-martin-armstrong.html

He was accused of Ponzi fraud and the purveyor of the notoriously unvaluable "Cresvale Bonds" that besotted Japanese corporate investors and populated their portfolios, much to their eventual chagrin.

What they don't tell you is that everything was hedged but the court appointed trustee destroyed all the hedges and stole $400 million of value from Princeton.

You are incapable of studying the facts of the case.

[CoinCube]

Raise Your Hand Idiot Reader If You Claim Armstrong Was Guilty

*raises hand* At the least this bit was an interesting read http://nihoncassandra.blogspot.com/2006/08/enigma-of-martin-armstrong.html

I have not looked deeply into Martin Armstrong’s guilt or innocence. Honestly, I don't really care that much so lacking the time to research it I will defer judgment. I do however, have a major major problem with how Armstrong was put in jail for 7 years without a trial by jury. This form of judicial tyranny is not as rare as one would think. Here are some other examples.

Man serves 14 years for contempt of court for refusing to transfer money he claims he did not have to his ex-wife
http://seattletimes.com/html/nationworld/2009449357_apusjailhousemillionaire.html

Woman sentenced to just shy of a year in jail for talking back to a judge.
http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-2548787/Woman-talks-way-spending-300-days-jail-contempt-court.html

Man sentenced to 20 years in jail for refusing to testify in a murder trial
http://articles.chicagotribune.com/2011-10-07/news/ct-met-long-sentence-20111007_1_appeals-court-witness-murder-case

The common theme of all of these cases is that the individuals were placed in jail by a judge without a trial.
Just a refresher lets take a look at the 5th and 6th amendments to the US constitution.

Fifth Amendment
nor shall any person .., be deprived of life, liberty, or property, without due process of law.

Sixth Amendment
In all criminal prosecutions, the accused shall enjoy the right to a speedy and public trial, by an impartial jury of the state and district wherein the crime shall have been committed, … and to have the assistance of counsel for his defense.

It is very dangerous when the supposed enforcers of the constitution are themselves ignoring/failing to acknowledge the protections granted by the constitution.

[Rassah]

Raise Your Hand Idiot Reader If You Claim Armstrong Was Guilty

*raises hand*

No need, we already knew that.

That I think he was guilty of at most a crime, and of at least a completely idiotic fuckup of Mark Karpelean proportions? Wow. You can predict the future ever better than Armstrong.

http://nihoncassandra.blogspot.com/2006/08/enigma-of-martin-armstrong.html

You are incapable of studying the facts of the case.

No, I am uninterested in studying the facts, in a case involving a clearly insane and overconfident loony. There's a difference.