Stephen Reed's Million Dollar Logistic Model

[lyth0s]

So the log10 Delta has been reversing for the past 4 days. This is either good news or a small reversal before another drop...

[snowdropfore]

why  not update now??

[riiiiising]

Are we still on track to hit $100,000 USD per bitcoin by the end of 2015?

[okthen]

Sorry for the cross-post, but Trolololo's work definitely seems applicable here. Thoughts?

In this OP I will always post the last updated charts:

Calculate today's trendline price HERE

I'd be interested in knowing Stephen Reed's opinion on this

[mmortal03]

Sorry for the cross-post, but Trolololo's work definitely seems applicable here. Thoughts?

In this OP I will always post the last updated charts:

Calculate today's trendline price HERE

I'd be interested in knowing Stephen Reed's opinion on this

I, obviously, would, too.

[zimmah]

would be nice to have an update on this.

the above chart seems to be pretty accurate as well, might even prove to be more accurate than the model this thread is about.

Would be a bit sad, as it's a MUCH slower model, but can't argue with the charts.

maybe this is all just a temporary bear market and we'll get back on trend, but seeing as the trend is around 10^4 atm and the previous bull markets were all around +0.4 that would mean we'd need to see about 30k in the next bull market.

Which seems quite insane.

At this point that would be more than a 100 fold increase.

[AtheistAKASaneBrain]

well we should hit like 3k this year otherwise I dont see how OP's graphic wuld make sense anymore?

[cuddaloreappu]

When can we expect the updated version of this trendline!

seems the trendline needs some revisions

[marcus_of_augustus]

I think the model needs to be updated to account for two effects not captured thus far;

i) the chasm of adoption that happens around the first quartile of the population of adopters bell curve that will feed through to the S-curve's cumulative effect. (It will look like a 'pause' in the S-curve)

ii) there isa strong negative feedback effect with any monetary good due to the price perception coupling with supply/demand (google "Griffen good") ... as the price rises(falls) demand strengthens (weakens) ... humans are weird, irrational about money.

[snowdropfore]

i think this is a good post,why not update ??

[BitChick]

i think this is a good post,why not update ??

I think during bear season the bulls go in hiding because if any updates were made the trolls will come out in full force and post stupid crap.

But I agree, I would love to see some updates.  A little encouragement sunny days to come in the midst of a cold winter is a nice thing.

[BitChick]

Heh... I don't wanna frighten anyone here with this post, LOL but just for the sake of illustration...

I made a graph using Mr. Reed's chart and a cut & paste of the previous HIGH PRICE divergence from the trendline, i.e. to show what a similar extreme LOW might look like... flipped the line horizontal/vertical and lined up with red trend line and today's price point.



Yeah, it's UGLY man... UGLY!  Oh!  Oh!  and "AAAAAAAA" Jesus God I sure HOPE we don't all have to endure some valley of HELL on Earth like this... "AAAAAAA"      

But y'know just the same -- ya gotta take the bad with the good, right?  And if our little bitcoin Engine That Could can go PLUS+ this extreme, we all ought to be prepared to also accept it as "normal" in case it's gotta go MINUS- this extreme too, sometimes.

I know, I know, LOL.  Ugly.  But talk about the ultimate "shake out" of weak-hands?  LOL

Maybe the only consolation here IF (God Forbid) this really has to happen, look where we still end up after reconvergence to trend line middle of next year.  Whew!  

I don't know about you guys but IF (again, God Forbid) something like this DOES have to happen, I'm prepared to go down with the ship psychologically speaking, just so that I'll still be "afloat" when the rescue helicopter finally DOES arrive.  

I didn't catch this post last September.  I probably should have been paying closer attention to it though. I don't think any of us really believed we could be in for such a long and painful decline in price.  Hopefully the worst is over now.

[MNDan]

I don't know who owns this, but it would be nice if it got updated:

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1wd-uAzKv59-4NEpAhAgEEzvKU2wKiZkX3JqToCne3Jg/edit#gid=1

[sidhujag]

Heh... I don't wanna frighten anyone here with this post, LOL but just for the sake of illustration...

I made a graph using Mr. Reed's chart and a cut & paste of the previous HIGH PRICE divergence from the trendline, i.e. to show what a similar extreme LOW might look like... flipped the line horizontal/vertical and lined up with red trend line and today's price point.



Yeah, it's UGLY man... UGLY!  Oh!  Oh!  and "AAAAAAAA" Jesus God I sure HOPE we don't all have to endure some valley of HELL on Earth like this... "AAAAAAA"      

But y'know just the same -- ya gotta take the bad with the good, right?  And if our little bitcoin Engine That Could can go PLUS+ this extreme, we all ought to be prepared to also accept it as "normal" in case it's gotta go MINUS- this extreme too, sometimes.

I know, I know, LOL.  Ugly.  But talk about the ultimate "shake out" of weak-hands?  LOL

Maybe the only consolation here IF (God Forbid) this really has to happen, look where we still end up after reconvergence to trend line middle of next year.  Whew!  

I don't know about you guys but IF (again, God Forbid) something like this DOES have to happen, I'm prepared to go down with the ship psychologically speaking, just so that I'll still be "afloat" when the rescue helicopter finally DOES arrive.  

I didn't catch this post last September.  I probably should have been paying closer attention to it though. I don't think any of us really believed we could be in for such a long and painful decline in price.  Hopefully the worst is over now.

i expected it and called it last year... probably over the hill now in regards to the bear trend..

[KeyJockey]

I didn't catch this post last September.  I probably should have been paying closer attention to it though. I don't think any of us really believed we could be in for such a long and painful decline in price.  Hopefully the worst is over now.

Hi BitChick... thx for the ref to my post here, but yeah when I wrote that even *I* actually kinda didn't believe things might really go this way -- i.e. be DOWN so FAR for SO long, and we're yet *still* stuck here down around the middle two-hundreds???  Really srsly sucks  

But even so I meant what I said there and we-all GOTTA be in this for the LONG HAUL and prepared for the whole experiment to possibly just fail outright.  Could happen, sure.  But IMHO it's still more likely that we'll recover and hit new highs that nowadays we can scarcely even imagine any more, LOL

As I said later in the thread too: either you believe bitcoin and the blockchain concept is valuable and useful and world-changing, or you don't.

Buy The Bitcoin,  Take The Ride... LOL
   

         

[BitChick]

I didn't catch this post last September.  I probably should have been paying closer attention to it though. I don't think any of us really believed we could be in for such a long and painful decline in price.  Hopefully the worst is over now.

Hi BitChick... thx for the ref to my post here, but yeah when I wrote that even *I* actually kinda didn't believe things might really go this way -- i.e. be DOWN so FAR for SO long, and we're yet *still* stuck here down around the middle two-hundreds???  Really srsly sucks 

But even so I meant what I said there and we-all GOTTA be in this for the LONG HAUL and prepared for the whole experiment to possibly just fail outright.  Could happen, sure.  But IMHO it's still more likely that we'll recover and hit new highs that nowadays we can scarcely even imagine any more, LOL

As I said later in the thread too: either you believe bitcoin and the blockchain concept is valuable and useful and world-changing, or you don't.

Buy The Bitcoin,  Take The Ride... LOL    

         

We are all learning patience.  Patience is a virtue right?  I still believe though.  The chart ends good. 

[rpietila]

We are all learning patience.  Patience is a virtue right?  I still believe though.  The chart ends good. 

Reminds me of the SSS Plan. Let's consider a reckless investor (hindsight is always 20/20) who did not have any bitcoins before they cost $1,000. Then s/he invested 50% of his total wealth (let's say it is just the absolute maximum that can be lost, not an amount that cannot be lost, which would have been an erroneous investment).

According to the plan, somewhere in between $2k-$10k, the raking should have started. But alas, the price turned down!

The bitcoins are only 20% of the purchase price 

So what to do? The answer is very easy: nothing. After the crash in price, the amount of BTC in the portfolio has gone down to 17%, which should be an amount that can be lost (if 50% was, why is 17% suddenly not? Do you even math?)

With the double-down, that is tricky. I advise against. If you had double-down in your palette, you would have done it multiple times already, dragging your whole net worth down and giving stress by constantly having tied your fortunes to BTC.

But selling is also incorrect. Cutting the long, fat tail of improbable but +EV nice returns for ... nothing?  Why would you do it? Adding +20% to your non-BTC portfolio is not worth it. There is no gain in hedging (a loss instead). The mental strain for keeping the long tails in investments must be overcome! In other areas of life, it is good to clean up. In investment, that is called throwing good EV and hedging away!

If you don't want to think of BTC, don't think about it! Just don't buy nor sell unless you are sure that inaction will lead to forced decision soon, in which case you need to reconsider.

[KeyJockey]

Buy The Bitcoin,  Take The Ride... LOL  
   

We are all learning patience.  Patience is a virtue right?  I still believe though.  The chart ends good.  

Well MY chart is still speculative, prospective, hopeful, maybe it will work out that way.  We'll see.

Of course nobody can KNOW it "ends good" yet BUT still IMHO if we look at the ENTIRE bitcoin price chart history, what do we see?

If somebody showed you this chart and said nothing about "bitcoin" but only like "Hey, I'm thinking of investing some money in this stock, what do you think?  Is it doing okay?  Does it look like it might continue to do okay long term...?"

What would most people say about it in that case?  
IMHO looks like a pretty good long-term investment, doesn't it?  

Anyone see any real permanent "crash" in there anywhere?  

Yeah, no, didn't think so... LOL  

[marcus_of_augustus]

Any updates?

[zimmah]

Any updates?

We'd have to get to $10,000 or so to be anywhere near the trend of this chart, while it's not impossable, right now it's doubtful this chart is even accurate still.

Let's see what the next few months bring, maybe we can draw some more conclusions then.