Stephen Reed's Million Dollar Logistic Model

[SlipperySlope]

Tracking the 2014 Bitcoin Bubble - First Doubling

I am tracking the number of days it takes the bitcoin price to double. This is a proven indicator for determining when a bubble is peaking. There is academic research that quantifies the super-exponential growth during an asset price bubble, but the math is much simpler when counting days-to-double. Historically, the bitcoin price peaks when prices are on a pace to double in about a week.

The first doubling leading up to the next bubble took 51 days, which is the difference between $340 on April 10 and $680 on May 31.

I will be watching for . . .

Second doubling - $1360 (perhaps July)
Third doubling - $2720 (perhaps July)
Fourth doubling - $5440 (I think the late July peak will be near this value)
Fifth doubling - $10880 (probably will not happen unless the peak is in the fall)

Those predictions would make this one hell of an exciting year! Do you have any good sources for the bubble peaking when doubling price is in 1 weeks time?

Looking at the price records for the three previous bubbles, we see . . .

June 9, 2011 peak at $32 - doubling from $16 in 4 days.

April 10, 2013 peak at $260 - doubling from $130 in 7 days.

November 29, 2013 peak at $1163 - doubling from $581 in 13 days.

The November peak is interesting because the rally to $758 on November 18, doubled from $359 in 6 days. I therefore thought that $758 was the peak, but the correction down from $758 was only to $379 which did not appear deep enough to me and other observers that day.

I suspect that the next bubble, being widely anticipated will have one or more dramatic pre-peak spikes that double in about a week.
I will combine the doubling time indicator with a threshold from the Log10 Delta From Trend chart when predicting the next peak.

[rpietila]

November 29, 2013 peak at $1163 - doubling from $581 in 13 days.

The November peak is interesting because the rally to $758 on November 18, doubled from $359 in 6 days. I therefore thought that $758 was the peak, but the correction down from $758 was only to $379 which did not appear deep enough to me and other observers that day.

I suspect that the next bubble, being widely anticipated will have one or more dramatic pre-peak spikes that double in about a week.
I will combine the doubling time indicator with a threshold from the Log10 Delta From Trend chart when predicting the next peak.

This coincides with my thinking. I actually went bearish and sold at the Nov 18 peak last year, which was premature but excusable in light of the doubling principle. This time I will try to follow the Log10 delta more closely and also try to trade the volatility should that happen. I think now that 3000 is a realistic lower limit for any selling, and I don't intend to trade the uptrend from here on.

My earlier bold prediction (when we were at 420) was 650 by the end of June. Considering that we are only in the beginning of June and that level is already tested, I don't think it does any harm to the uptrend if we stay here for several more weeks. Breaching 500 in anything except a flashcrash would be worrying, but I regard the chances for that happening as low (20%).

[xxnewbiecoinerxx]

November 29, 2013 peak at $1163 - doubling from $581 in 13 days.

The November peak is interesting because the rally to $758 on November 18, doubled from $359 in 6 days. I therefore thought that $758 was the peak, but the correction down from $758 was only to $379 which did not appear deep enough to me and other observers that day.

I suspect that the next bubble, being widely anticipated will have one or more dramatic pre-peak spikes that double in about a week.
I will combine the doubling time indicator with a threshold from the Log10 Delta From Trend chart when predicting the next peak.

This coincides with my thinking. I actually went bearish and sold at the Nov 18 peak last year, which was premature but excusable in light of the doubling principle. This time I will try to follow the Log10 delta more closely and also try to trade the volatility should that happen. I think now that 3000 is a realistic lower limit for any selling, and I don't intend to trade the uptrend from here on.

My earlier bold prediction (when we were at 420) was 650 by the end of June. Considering that we are only in the beginning of June and that level is already tested, I don't think it does any harm to the uptrend if we stay here for several more weeks. Breaching 500 in anything except a flashcrash would be worrying, but I regard the chances for that happening as low (20%).

Just make sure you guys keep us updated!

[BitchicksHusband]

November 29, 2013 peak at $1163 - doubling from $581 in 13 days.

The November peak is interesting because the rally to $758 on November 18, doubled from $359 in 6 days. I therefore thought that $758 was the peak, but the correction down from $758 was only to $379 which did not appear deep enough to me and other observers that day.

I suspect that the next bubble, being widely anticipated will have one or more dramatic pre-peak spikes that double in about a week.
I will combine the doubling time indicator with a threshold from the Log10 Delta From Trend chart when predicting the next peak.

This coincides with my thinking. I actually went bearish and sold at the Nov 18 peak last year, which was premature but excusable in light of the doubling principle. This time I will try to follow the Log10 delta more closely and also try to trade the volatility should that happen. I think now that 3000 is a realistic lower limit for any selling, and I don't intend to trade the uptrend from here on.

My earlier bold prediction (when we were at 420) was 650 by the end of June. Considering that we are only in the beginning of June and that level is already tested, I don't think it does any harm to the uptrend if we stay here for several more weeks. Breaching 500 in anything except a flashcrash would be worrying, but I regard the chances for that happening as low (20%).

Just make sure you guys keep us updated!

After studying the previous bubbles, I believe we will see nearly $1000 by the end of June.

[marcus_of_augustus]

the existence of nonlinear super-exponential growth

... now ya's are getting to it ...

[btc6000]

June 9, 2011 peak at $32 - doubling from $16 in 4 days.

April 10, 2013 peak at $260 - doubling from $130 in 7 days.

November 29, 2013 peak at $1163 - doubling from $581 in 13 days.

The November peak is interesting because the rally to $758 on November 18, doubled from $359 in 6 days. I therefore thought that $758 was the peak, but the correction down from $758 was only to $379 which did not appear deep enough to me and other observers that day.

Interesting indeed.

(4 * 2) -1 = 7
(7 * 2) -1 = 13

I suspect that the next bubble, being widely anticipated will have one or more dramatic pre-peak spikes that double in about a week.
I will combine the doubling time indicator with a threshold from the Log10 Delta From Trend chart when predicting the next peak.

(13 * 2) -1 = 25

[SlipperySlope]

the existence of nonlinear super-exponential growth

... now ya's are getting to it ...

By nonlinear, super-exponential growth, the academic paper means that the growth rate of the asset bubble is itself growing, this is unsustainable and leads to the bubble peaking. We have seen this in each of the bitcoin bubbles and is very dramatic in the final week of such super-exponential growth. We may see prices, for example, double from $2700 to $5400 in a week or less, before collapsing back towards say $2700.

[zimmah]

In another thread i have posted an image from a chart that seems to indicate the tops of the current growth (it has only very briefly broke the line upwards, right before the flashcrash back)


So far it has hit the line at least 10 times, I can't predict when or even if the line will be touched again, but it seems to indicate (at least for now) the points at which the price peaks.

For example if we have another small rally by the end of the day, the price should not go above $690. But if we have one by the 5th of June, the price would hit $700. And so on.

[SlipperySlope]

In another thread i have posted an image from a chart that seems to indicate the tops of the current growth (it has only very briefly broke the line upwards, right before the flashcrash back)


So far it has hit the line at least 10 times, I can't predict when or even if the line will be touched again, but it seems to indicate (at least for now) the points at which the price peaks.

For example if we have another small rally by the end of the day, the price should not go above $690. But if we have one by the 5th of June, the price would hit $700. And so on.

Interesting. I see the fibonacci fan lines tool on BitcoinWisdom but I have not used it.

Here is an explanation I found Fibonacci Fans

[gnode]

In another thread i have posted an image from a chart that seems to indicate the tops of the current growth (it has only very briefly broke the line upwards, right before the flashcrash back)


So far it has hit the line at least 10 times, I can't predict when or even if the line will be touched again, but it seems to indicate (at least for now) the points at which the price peaks.

For example if we have another small rally by the end of the day, the price should not go above $690. But if we have one by the 5th of June, the price would hit $700. And so on.

A link to the thread where the image is posted please?

[mitkos1]

A link to the thread where the image is posted please?

https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=499968.msg7098670#msg7098670

[cuddaloreappu]

Yesterday citbank released a document in which it really claims the potential for bitcoin to explode in future, this could the first good report for bitcoin from a bank..


https://ir.citi.com/RZh%2B9GHcy3eQvegHG9vuU3r5%2FxkjXBMMfUnULRTyibawadNFQRrrFA%3D%3D

Apart from bitcoin they also mentioned reliable altcoins and included litecoin and dogecoin in their list..

Can someone here tell me whether dogecoin will also follow this logistic model of price growth,

because whene it comes to penetrability in the society, dogecoin is much more powerful than bitcoin

The reasons are

1.very cheap and hence a lot of people can mine and also buy.

2. infact the project was started by a marketing executive at adobe, so he was clever to put the meme of the year on a digital currency.

3. The dogecoin community is rapidly growing, dedicated and much more media hyped( seending bobsled team to olympics, building kenyan wells, Nascar race)

4.Dogecoin has actully given the crypto ecosystem a good outlook with all its inherent fun and charity..

with total supple of 100 billion, a 40,000 dollar bitcoin is relative to 1$ dogecoin,..

But will dogecoin also have this logistic price rise.

[rpietila]

But will dogecoin also have this logistic price rise.

In my analysis, no.

Dogecoin is failing in its coin emission schedule making it prone to 51% attack. That can be repaired by making it ever-inflationary though. But the network effects favor that there can only be one all-purpose crypto, and clearly that is Bitcoin, and this is evident from the constant price erosion of DOGE - the holders are slowly returning to BTC.

I have found only one coin except BTC, which has a good enough potential to even be around in 3 years, to warrant an investment. And that one is Monero, MRO.

Second generation coins like NXT, fail very big time in that all the coins are premined. I can never believe that 100% fiat "coins" could ever become voluntarily used. And I have 1000 years of monetary history behind me showing that at times people have rather died than used the state-mandated fiat. Good luck trying it without having the monopoly of coercion behind you!

[zimmah]

A link to the thread where the image is posted please?

https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=499968.msg7098670#msg7098670

correct, here's an update:



Note that the support is from the fan with the higher slope (the more recent fan). This could indicate that at some point (possibly the point where the two fans collide) the support will overtake the resistance, which would indicate a massive breakout to the upside. That, or it might turn more bearish, which i consider pretty unlikely at this point. I can't see it clearly on the charts, but i'd say they would collide somewhere around July 20th or so. Somewhere around the $1600 mark is where they cross. I'll update once i can see it more clearly. (it's nearly impossible to view upwards in the bitcoinwisdom charts, this makes extrapolating lines a bit hard)

[stereotype]

But will dogecoin also have this logistic price rise.

In my analysis, no.

Dogecoin is failing in its coin emission schedule making it prone to 51% attack. That can be repaired by making it ever-inflationary though. But the network effects favor that there can only be one all-purpose crypto, and clearly that is Bitcoin, and this is evident from the constant price erosion of DOGE - the holders are slowly returning to BTC.

I have found only one coin except BTC, which has a good enough potential to even be around in 3 years, to warrant an investment. And that one is Monero, MRO.

Second generation coins like NXT, fail very big time in that all the coins are premined. I can never believe that 100% fiat "coins" could ever become voluntarily used. And I have 1000 years of monetary history behind me showing that at times people have rather died than used the state-mandated fiat. Good luck trying it without having the monopoly of coercion behind you!

How much %, of those 100% Nxt premined coins, would equal enough utility and critical mass, to be called a successful premine?

[Bitcopia]

Looking at the price records for the three previous bubbles, we see . . .

June 9, 2011 peak at $32 - doubling from $16 in 4 days.

April 10, 2013 peak at $260 - doubling from $130 in 7 days.

November 29, 2013 peak at $1163 - doubling from $581 in 13 days.

The November peak is interesting because the rally to $758 on November 18, doubled from $359 in 6 days. I therefore thought that $758 was the peak, but the correction down from $758 was only to $379 which did not appear deep enough to me and other observers that day.

I suspect that the next bubble, being widely anticipated will have one or more dramatic pre-peak spikes that double in about a week.
I will combine the doubling time indicator with a threshold from the Log10 Delta From Trend chart when predicting the next peak.

Seeing as how each doubling to peak has taken x*2-1 days (where x is the previous bubble's # of days for price to double to peak), do you think it is possible that the next doubling to peak might take roughly 13*2-1 or 25 days to occur?

[10c]

Someone on here made a nice simple website that calculated this model anyone still have a link?
I have tried searching but nothing came up.
I know you can do the same with the spreadsheet but the doc is kind of lagging.


@Slippery why did you mark 19th may in red?

[holomen]

@Slippery why did you mark 19th may in red?

This was the Bearish movement reversal point.
And trend's biggest  negative delta value ( price difference from the trendline) calculated within few years.

[10c]

@Slippery why did you mark 19th may in red?

This was the Bearish movement reversal point.
And trend's biggest  negative delta value ( price difference from the trendline) calculated within few years.

Thanks! I figured but remember risto saying it was 5.x way back

[zimmah]

The price deviated a lot more from the trendline prior to 2012, because trading was all over the place back then.

Until the future proves otherwise we can assume the log10 delta from trend has a period of 8 months and an amplitude of 0.4 (maybe 0.45) log base 10 units.