Bear Trend Forming on 4 Hour Chart?

[MatTheCat]

Looks to me like we have the start of a bear trend forming on the longer term 4 hour chart.



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This would seem reasonable to me, as Bitcoin has shot up very very fast, we have had a double top, and now a strong correction from a recovery that fell well short of the top, and a bounce from that which looks to be falling well short of the recovery target of around $980 on Bitstamp.

Perhaps we are entering another 'traders market' for the next few months, as seen post April 2013?

[fr33d0miz3r]

Agreed.
And the today's recent selloff broke the support provided by 2-, 5-, 10- and 14-day EMAs again.

[Edward50]

Yup, it is looking very weak for bitcoin right now.

It never made sense to me that it rose back up to $1000 so fast. It should really be sub-500.

This recent recovery was a very weak low volume recovery.

Too many people are cashing out and they do it slowly to make sure the exchanges don't rob their bitcoins. There is no way that the demand for $1000 bitcoins is there to cash out all these people.

Think about it $1000 bitcoins, crazy.

[BitChick]

Perhaps people need cash for Christmas right now?  I would think that December would be a slow month for Bitcoin anyways.

$1000 per coin is nothing compared to what it could be.

I am sure everyone thought $10 a coin was high, then $100 was considered a dream.  Now that seems cheap.  The same thing will happen to $1000. 

[MatTheCat]

Perhaps people need cash for Christmas right now?  I would think that December would be a slow month for Bitcoin anyways.

$1000 per coin is nothing compared to what it could be.

I am sure everyone thought $10 a coin was high, then $100 was considered a dream.  Now that seems cheap.  The same thing will happen to $1000. 

I think more along the lines off:

"Perhaps if the average price of Bitcoins being held in wallets is less than $100, then now that the surge of buying power has clearly subsided, it is going to become more and more clear to holders of BTC that now is the time to cash out."

This is not the end of Bitcoin, far from it, but definitely looks to me like a period of consolidation at best, and bear trending at worst. Perhaps the low (currently $546) is actually not yet in?

[sumantso]

I have been bearish since the start of this month. Buying in the crashes, of course; but maybe selling a bit too quickly. Catching the top and bottom is always much tougher than spotting trends.

[sumantso]

I am sure everyone thought $10 a coin was high, then $100 was considered a dream.  Now that seems cheap.  The same thing will happen to $1000. 

Just because something has happened earlier doesn't mean it will keep happening.

I do believe we will break the current ATH, but not as soon as most hear think it would be. There is also that doom-and-gloom scenario predicted by EWT worshippers (which I am quite skeptical about, more out of greed than anything, tbh).

[Hfertig]

We are in a bear market. The volume above 1000 was thin. Lots of people are sitting on paper profits. Bulls at this current level will learn the same lesson as the bulls did in the previous two crashes. I don´t believe that 546 was the low. Sorry, but greed is not selling to protect profits, it is sitting on massive profits and being greedy for more.

[Rygon]

Perhaps people need cash for Christmas right now?  I would think that December would be a slow month for Bitcoin anyways.

$1000 per coin is nothing compared to what it could be.

I am sure everyone thought $10 a coin was high, then $100 was considered a dream.  Now that seems cheap.  The same thing will happen to $1000. 

December was a slow month last year too, with price drifting lower. There are probably enough bitcoiners out there who are cashing out a little bit to pay for the holidays that the price is going lower. I expect things to pick back up in February and March, much like last year. The positive news lately hasn't been lifting up the price as much as we'd expect specifically because most newcomers are too busy around the holidays to do their research. Some folks could be more likely to sell in December instead of January because of tax reasons.

[MatTheCat]

December was a slow month last year too, with price drifting lower. There are probably enough bitcoiners out there who are cashing out a little bit to pay for the holidays that the price is going lower. I expect things to pick back up in February and March, much like last year. The positive news lately hasn't been lifting up the price as much as we'd expect specifically because most newcomers are too busy around the holidays to do their research. Some folks could be more likely to sell in December instead of January because of tax reasons.

Tax? January?

My tax year runs from April to April m8.

I am not sure when the Chinese (by far the main market for Btc these days) pay their taxes either.

[Hfertig]

December was a slow month last year too, with price drifting lower. There are probably enough bitcoiners out there who are cashing out a little bit to pay for the holidays that the price is going lower. I expect things to pick back up in February and March, much like last year. The positive news lately hasn't been lifting up the price as much as we'd expect specifically because most newcomers are too busy around the holidays to do their research. Some folks could be more likely to sell in December instead of January because of tax reasons.

Tax? January?

My tax year runs from April to April m8.

I am not sure when the Chinese (by far the main market for Btc these days) pay their taxes either.

that´s only iin the uk m8.... most other counties tax years go from jan till dec.

[Rygon]

December was a slow month last year too, with price drifting lower. There are probably enough bitcoiners out there who are cashing out a little bit to pay for the holidays that the price is going lower. I expect things to pick back up in February and March, much like last year. The positive news lately hasn't been lifting up the price as much as we'd expect specifically because most newcomers are too busy around the holidays to do their research. Some folks could be more likely to sell in December instead of January because of tax reasons.

Tax? January?

My tax year runs from April to April m8.

I am not sure when the Chinese (by far the main market for Btc these days) pay their taxes either.

Yeah, I can only speculate from the US side, where the tax year runs Jan to Dec. The USD volume in BTC is still about 50%, combined Gox and Bitstamp. I'd say that's pretty equal with the Chinese, even though BTCChina has the single largest exchange.

[MatTheCat]

Yeah, I can only speculate from the US side, where the tax year runs Jan to Dec. The USD volume in BTC is still about 50%, combined Gox and Bitstamp. I'd say that's pretty equal with the Chinese, even though BTCChina has the single largest exchange.

m8, folks from all across the world are buying and selling BTC in US dollars because that is the currency of the main exchanges, not because we all have to pay taxes to the US government.

[Rygon]

Yeah, I can only speculate from the US side, where the tax year runs Jan to Dec. The USD volume in BTC is still about 50%, combined Gox and Bitstamp. I'd say that's pretty equal with the Chinese, even though BTCChina has the single largest exchange.

m8, folks from all across the world are buying and selling BTC in US dollars because that is the currency of the main exchanges, not because we all have to pay taxes to the US government.

Ah, good point.

[Wekkel]

We are in a bear market.
[...]
I don´t believe that 546 was the low.
[...]

You, Sir, are violating a very important rule on this forum 

[Odalv]

Bulls at this current level will learn the same lesson as the bulls did in the previous two crashes.

I'm a bit dull, could you just tell me the lesson so I don't have to wait until I learn it on my own?

You will learn that after "crash", you have at least same amount of Bitcoin if no more and not only half. :-)

[MatTheCat]

I'm a bit dull, could you just tell me the lesson so I don't have to wait until I learn it on my own?

Sell now, buy back in at inevitably lower prices like I am doing.

Hope that helps clear things up for you.

[humanitee]

Not one China chart? Cool analysis bros.

[MatTheCat]

So... you want me to risk trusting an exchange, force myself to deal with tax issues (along with foreign account issues), and convert my bitcoins into something I despise (money that is controlled by the few for their own benefit), in hopes that I beat the odds (most speculators lose) and will be able to purchase more bitcoins in the future?

Fuck that. I'll just buy more with whatever fiat I happen to find during a crash.

Hooray for the 'buy in at any price crowd'.

Afterall, there has got to be someone to buy out our bad bets.

Now if you don't mind, I will place you on ignore. you haven't insulted me or anything like that, its just that I figure that if I can slowly block out all the brain damage merchants polluting this place, this forum section might just be a place where one can glean insight and good advice.

[sgbett]

I find it best to block everyone that doesn't share my world view, lest it hurts my fragile ego ...