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Question: Do you think the difficulty will continue to drop?  (Voting closed: August 30, 2011, 03:39:54 AM)
Yes - 7 (63.6%)
No - 4 (36.4%)
Total Voters: 11

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Author Topic: Projected BitCoin difficulty drop  (Read 2199 times)
xylo
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August 12, 2011, 11:16:44 PM
 #1

I just ran across some interesting info that some of you may already know about.  A potential and what appears likely difficulty drop, so far it's predicted to drop from the current 1,890,362 to aprox. 1,854,133. Grin  That's about a 26k drop, I know relative to the current difficulty this is insignificant, but a drop like this has to be noticeable to some miners, or is it?  Huh

  More information can be found here: http://bitcoinwatch.com/
    edit: Better monitoring site here: bitcoincharts.com (live updates)  Cheesy


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Stefanie Andrea
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August 12, 2011, 11:21:28 PM
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This information is also available at bitcoincharts.com
xylo
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August 12, 2011, 11:23:06 PM
 #3

This information is also available at bitcoincharts.com

Nice to know.  
Thanks!         Thanks!          Thanks!          Thanks!

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August 12, 2011, 11:27:35 PM
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i use www.BitcoinCharts.com beacuse they have real-time updating on the markets.

1,860,433 is the drop according to them.
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August 12, 2011, 11:32:47 PM
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I just ran across some interesting info that some of you may already know about.  A potential and what appears likely difficulty drop, so far it's predicted to drop from the current 1,890,362 to aprox. 1,854,133. Grin  That's about a 26k drop, I know relative to the current difficulty this is insignificant, but a drop like this has to be noticeable to some miners, or is it?  Huh

  More information can be found here: http://bitcoinwatch.com/



Doubt it if you were getting say 1btc a day that extra 2% will get you 1.02 not a whole hell of a lot extra to write home about..

True, but I can't complain.  I'll take what I can get, and think more long term lets say at that BTC a day that extra 2% (additional .60/month) would make a nice bit of pocket change, for lets say idk... maybe a couple lotto tickets or something. Smiley

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August 12, 2011, 11:43:51 PM
 #6

Network hash rates have been dropping little by little for a while, and maybe, just maybe we'll see a nice difficulty drop.  It's almost like panning for gold, shake out the sand and dirt (the not so real miners) and you're left with the gold (as in the real miners).  Smiley

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August 12, 2011, 11:46:42 PM
 #7

That's not a significant difference  Cheesy

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xylo
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August 12, 2011, 11:50:01 PM
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That's not a significant difference  Cheesy

@#$ realist, always have to drag me back to reality. Sad
Anyway, bitcoins are bitcoins and I'll take another 2%-ish percent of em'.

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molecular
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August 13, 2011, 12:00:08 AM
 #9

hey newbies! No projection, but nice graphs are also here: http://bitcoin.sipa.be

gribble bot on irc projects:

Quote
<molecular> ;;bc,diff
<gribble> 1888786.7053531

Another projection (which I assume to be the most accurate) can be found here: http://dot-bit.org/tools/nextDifficulty.php

I myself project: For all practical purposes, the next difficulty will be the same as the current one.

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xylo
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August 13, 2011, 12:38:56 AM
 #10

hey newbies! No projection, but nice graphs are also here: http://bitcoin.sipa.be

gribble bot on irc projects:

Quote
<molecular> ;;bc,diff
<gribble> 1888786.7053531

Another projection (which I assume to be the most accurate) can be found here: http://dot-bit.org/tools/nextDifficulty.php

I myself project: For all practical purposes, the next difficulty will be the same as the current one.

Thanks for the info.  Cheesy

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August 13, 2011, 12:40:52 AM
 #11

That's not a significant difference  Cheesy

not when compared to 100% but if you compare it to what has happened with difficulty increases in the past...

would you rather a +2% change or a -20% change Cheesy
xylo
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August 13, 2011, 12:44:52 AM
 #12

That's not a significant difference  Cheesy

not when compared to 100% but if you compare it to what has happened with difficulty increases in the past...

would you rather a +2% change or a -20% change Cheesy


Anything in the negatives, it could go down -.0000000000000000000000001% and I would be happy, as long as it doesn't go up...EVER!  Grin

Realism factor (1-10):HAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHA


edit: I misread sry.  Undecided Oops!

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August 13, 2011, 01:30:05 AM
 #13

That's not a significant difference  Cheesy

not when compared to 100% but if you compare it to what has happened with difficulty increases in the past...

would you rather a +2% change or a -20% change Cheesy


Anything in the negatives, it could go down -.0000000000000000000000001% and I would be happy, as long as it doesn't go up...EVER!  Grin

Realism factor (1-10):HAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHA

really don't want it to go up? the % i was referring to was the change in the amount earned per day. eg 1 btc vs 1.02 btc = +2% which is unusual as normally miners are gradually earning less per day.
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August 13, 2011, 01:44:49 AM
 #14

That's not a significant difference  Cheesy

not when compared to 100% but if you compare it to what has happened with difficulty increases in the past...

would you rather a +2% change or a -20% change Cheesy


Anything in the negatives, it could go down -.0000000000000000000000001% and I would be happy, as long as it doesn't go up...EVER!  Grin

Realism factor (1-10):HAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHA

really don't want it to go up? the % i was referring to was the change in the amount earned per day. eg 1 btc vs 1.02 btc = +2% which is unusual as normally miners are gradually earning less per day.



Sry, I misread.  Undecided Oops!

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August 15, 2011, 05:00:35 PM
 #15

How can you predict a difficulty drop?

I mean I suppose it is possible if the amount of FUD on youtube increases dramatically.... but you know youtube  Cheesy

First they ignore you, then they laugh at you, then they keep laughing, then they start choking on their laughter, and then they go and catch their breath. Then they start laughing even more.
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August 15, 2011, 08:37:01 PM
 #16

Most posts here mentioned the increase in mining - the number of potential bitcoins gain. Anyone would like to address the future of btc? Maybe bitcoin has lost its steam and drop in miners? Drop in miners due to drop in prices. Drop in prices due to lack of demands. Lack of demands due to no gains in businesses to adopt btc, etc.
OR was it because alot of miners are gone for the summer holidays and do not have their mine on?
mrbashfo
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August 15, 2011, 08:48:50 PM
 #17

if bitcoin difficulty drops that would be awesome. Even at that I hope more people stop mining now and the price of the btc goes up!

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xylo
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August 15, 2011, 11:45:24 PM
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if bitcoin difficulty drops that would be awesome. Even at that I hope more people stop mining now and the price of the btc goes up!
Not if, WHEN.  In a matter on minuets (one block) the difficulty will drop about 84k.  That's about 4.5%, it's not a record, but it's still awesome. Grin

Happy mining!  Grin
 

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August 15, 2011, 11:50:08 PM
 #19

Current difficulty: 1805700.8361937, Estimated difficulty: 7222827.06887830, 300% increase in 2015 blocks, 1w 6day 23hr 50min 0se

Oh dear....  Cheesy
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August 15, 2011, 11:51:12 PM
 #20

How can you predict a difficulty drop?

I mean I suppose it is possible if the amount of FUD on youtube increases dramatically.... but you know youtube  Cheesy

You can predict drops by watching hash rates, knowing a little investor/miner psychology, and comparing recient events to things that happened prior to past drops.  Mainly its just taking the hash rate and doing the math, and if it keeps going down so will difficulty.

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