Serious bitcoin price discussion. Bears only please. How far will it drop?

[Edward50]

Looks like bitcoins stabilized at a new temporary price of $750. I think this is another temporary stop before it lowers again to a more sustainable level.

I see no reason why bitcoins won't fall back to $300 or lower now.

Lets face it, it seems the whole reason bitcoin boomed recently was China. I wish I knew just how much they were buying, but they seemed to be the big player. With the government cracking down over there and if china is pretty much out of the game, who is going to be buying $750 dollar bitcoins?

Surely not the people who bought them for $100 and lower. These people are probably the majority of the people who have the potential to buy bitcoins. They talk about going to the moon, but I doubt any of those people are going to fork $750 of their fiat dollars for a bitcoin especially when they are holding some already. They talk about going to the moon because they want their value to increase. They are not taking $750 dollars and buying a single digital coin.

More and more people should start selling their bitcoins as the price stagnates and signs point to another drop. Right now the price looks very weak and no signs of any recovery.

For their to be another speculative bubble and price to go to the moon again, bitcoin will have to lower in price enough for new people to want to buy them. The price will have to go to a level where people feel they are undervalued and another buying frenzy gets pushed forward. I don't see this happening until the price reaches at least in the $200's.

[reactive4ce]

Guys, sorry to break it to you bears, but in the long run bitcoin is going to the moon, get all you can now at sub 1k levels because come 2014 its going to be a whole new world.

Dellusion  

Transactions increased only 50% in 1 year.
Bitcoin has a long way to go till real life utility becomes significant.

Price is up 6500%... Overspeculating ... You expect another 5000% price increase without more transactions?

Check BTC transfered (in USD value at that time) and you will see increase

[Miz4r]

Looks like bitcoins stabilized at a new temporary price of $750. I think this is another temporary stop before it lowers again to a more sustainable level.

I see no reason why bitcoins won't fall back to $300 or lower now.

And this is why bears like you always miss the bottom. Earlier in this thread you kinda accepted that maybe you should buy at $500-600 and not at $400 since you usually undershoot the target. Now when there is a little panic and fear in the air you are back pedaling towards $300 and lower. You know that this way you will be sure to miss the bottom again don't you?

[pera]

Looks like bitcoins stabilized at a new temporary price of $750. I think this is another temporary stop before it lowers again to a more sustainable level.

I see no reason why bitcoins won't fall back to $300 or lower now.

And this is why bears like you always miss the bottom. Earlier in this thread you kinda accepted that maybe you should buy at $500-600 and not at $400 since you usually undershoot the target. Now when there is a little panic and fear in the air you are back pedaling towards $300 and lower. You know that this way you will be sure to miss the bottom again don't you?

well, the first port was before the recent news from china, keeping a target without any kind of fundamental analysis is not a good strategy imo

[Tzupy]

Looks like bitcoins stabilized at a new temporary price of $750. I think this is another temporary stop before it lowers again to a more sustainable level.

I see no reason why bitcoins won't fall back to $300 or lower now.

Lets face it, it seems the whole reason bitcoin boomed recently was China. I wish I knew just how much they were buying, but they seemed to be the big player. With the government cracking down over there and if china is pretty much out of the game, who is going to be buying $750 dollar bitcoins?

Surely not the people who bought them for $100 and lower. These people are probably the majority of the people who have the potential to buy bitcoins. They talk about going to the moon, but I doubt any of those people are going to fork $750 of their fiat dollars for a bitcoin especially when they are holding some already. They talk about going to the moon because they want their value to increase. They are not taking $750 dollars and buying a single digital coin.

More and more people should start selling their bitcoins as the price stagnates and signs point to another drop. Right now the price looks very weak and no signs of any recovery.

For their to be another speculative bubble and price to go to the moon again, bitcoin will have to lower in price enough for new people to want to buy them. The price will have to go to a level where people feel they are undervalued and another buying frenzy gets pushed forward. I don't see this happening until the price reaches at least in the $200's.

The reason for the boom is more complicated than just China (as for China, only Hong Kong, Shanghai and Beijing areas were really involved).
IMO the recovery from the SR crash (which crash was corrective wave 2) was the start point of the boom and China only strengthened the uptrend.
Once price started to rise sharply, more people got interested, and new fiat flowed into the exchanges for quite a while.

As for the price at the very bottom, I said before that it depends how many more coins will appear in the asks, right now about 51k on Gox, according to trading.i286
In April, at this stage of the market, the biggest dumps already happened, so the most important information now should be the amount of coins transferred to the exchanges.
I believe the next days will see greed turn into fear, as the buyers look weak, and more coins will appear in the ask sum, building up seller pressure.

[T.Stuart]

Looks like bitcoins stabilized at a new temporary price of $750. I think this is another temporary stop before it lowers again to a more sustainable level.

I see no reason why bitcoins won't fall back to $300 or lower now.

And this is why bears like you always miss the bottom. Earlier in this thread you kinda accepted that maybe you should buy at $500-600 and not at $400 since you usually undershoot the target. Now when there is a little panic and fear in the air you are back pedaling towards $300 and lower. You know that this way you will be sure to miss the bottom again don't you?

Who in their right minds anywhere who has anything to do with Bitcoin (except maybe one or two poor Chinese noobs) really believes that it would stay at a price like $300 for anything more than a minute before bouncing right back up and right out of there? Who thinks Bitcoin is going to have an average price of $300 next year? If such people exist, quite a few of them exist, then he's in with a small chance. If not then forget it - $300 will not happen.

[T.Stuart]

I believe the next days will see greed turn into fear, as the buyers look weak, and more coins will appear in the ask sum, building up seller pressure.

The sellers also look "weak" - people are hesitant to sell now. Just as important.

[MatTheCat]

Who in their right minds anywhere who has anything to do with Bitcoin (except maybe one or two poor Chinese noobs) really believes that it would stay at a price like $300 for anything more than a minute before bouncing right back up and right out of there? Who thinks Bitcoin is going to have an average price of $300 next year? If such people exist, quite a few of them exist, then he's in with a small chance. If not then forget it - $300 will not happen.

Ok T.Stuart.

Come clean. How many BTC are you holding and at what average price did you get them at?

[T.Stuart]

Who in their right minds anywhere who has anything to do with Bitcoin (except maybe one or two poor Chinese noobs) really believes that it would stay at a price like $300 for anything more than a minute before bouncing right back up and right out of there? Who thinks Bitcoin is going to have an average price of $300 next year? If such people exist, quite a few of them exist, then he's in with a small chance. If not then forget it - $300 will not happen.

Ok T.Stuart.

Come clean. How many BTC are you holding and at what average price did you get them at?

Honestly none. But I'm getting some money to an exchange somewhere near you pretty quick. 

[MatTheCat]

Honestly none. But I'm getting some money to an exchange somewhere near you pretty quick. 

Ok.

Them BTC must be looking pretty cheap right now. Almost half the price of little over a week ago.

But does the big China Bitcoin wind-down not worry you?

[MAbtc]

Guys, sorry to break it to you bears, but in the long run bitcoin is going to the moon, get all you can now at sub 1k levels because come 2014 its going to be a whole new world.

The difference between 350 and 700 (and 1000) is marked. It seems to me that buying anything under 1k is a bad move to maximize gains.....

[pbody]

The situation is definitely looking worse now...we may see sub $600 after all.

why is it looking worse? It looks like it is holding in the 700s. There has not been a huge sell off yet like on the 6th. I think a lot of weak hands were shaken at that time. Definitely a downtrend though. Maybe it will just be very slow? Who knows? Where's the new Mystery chart?

[MAbtc]

The situation is definitely looking worse now...we may see sub $600 after all.

why is it looking worse? It looks like it is holding in the 700s. There has not been a huge sell off yet like on the 6th. I think a lot of weak hands were shaken at that time.

Regarding the weak hands thing.... a lot of the bottom fishers are weak hands. Me, for instance. My hands are so fucking weak right now. Just playing the bounces.

Prepared to eat my words, but this level will be broken.

[kireinaha]

$300 may seem unreasonably low right now, but it's all a matter of perspective. Less than a month ago, $700 felt unreasonably low to a lot of people. Perhaps in another month from now, we will fall to $300 and then people will be waiting for $200. Market sentiments are always changing.

[T.Stuart]

Honestly none. But I'm getting some money to an exchange somewhere near you pretty quick. 

Ok.

Them BTC must be looking pretty cheap right now. Almost half the price of little over a week ago.

But does the big China Bitcoin wind-down not worry you?

I don't think it is nearly as bad as it seems. It's not as if China had adopted Bitcoin, a billion people were using it, then it got banned. It sounds stupid, but it's this kind of semi-conscious thinking that is creating a "China goes, we all go" illusion. It's not like that. Bitcoin was growing at the same exponential rate before China, and there are billions of other people to keep this rate going for a good long while. That's why the price isn't dropping as much as you might think it would - because the real market for Bitcoin is not just a reflection of the China hype we are getting.

And with all that, it is not even banned in China and I very much doubt it will be. They simply want to control the flow of money into it like they try to do with other assets.

Now aside from the China stuff, Bitcoin is being accepted in many countries now. Not a day goes by now without it being touted as an asset by some European country or another; and it doesn't matter that it's as an asset - it's being accepted and that will allay the principal fear of any average would-be investor. As for the other fears - security, price volatility, etc. - companies are working fast to make it easy and secure to buy and use Bitcoin with a simple username and password, and hedge funds are busy preparing the same graphs you have looked at showing exponential growth, logarithmic rates, etc. to show their clients. A small but significant handful of Wall Streeters and hedge fund people have already put their own money in.

I may be wrong but I bet nobody here thinks Bitcoin will be sub-$1000 at the end of next year; the vast majority think it will actually be much higher. Don't forget, even just a $300 rise from $700 to $1000 in one year is a superb return on investment. Put your $700 in a bank for a year and there's actually a chance with fees you will have less than that in a year's time! A good interest rate might give you a $15 bonus on the money after a year if you are lucky.

People realise that other people are thinking the same. That's why there is less mad panic and more hesitant "dumping" going on. No-one wants to dump and then see the price go up and not come down again. If it doesn't go much lower then trying to trade now is foolish and everyone knows and feels that. It's not worth the stress. So more people than ever before are holding on for next year.

I hope I didn't bore you all!  

[ranmn7]

Ok, I'm fairly new to bitcoins, having been trading etc.. since May of this year.

I'm reading all the speculation on here, and there are some things that are certain. The current price of bitcoins has zero affect on future prices. Just like stocks or commodities on the market, prices are affected more by external events than anything else.

Now since bitcoins are a currency, (to those who trade with them they are, so for our purposes they are), then things that affect currencies will affect bitcoins.

The speculation in China that bitcoins were going to be accepted by the central bank is what drove the really big increase to $1200 per bitcoin.

But, there is also another thing going on, the Ukraine has been in financial crisis for several weeks. And has just now agreed to a bail out from Russia.

I think these two things first China's central bank not accepting bitcoins, causing it to fall from the $1200 high, but then the instability in Ukraine has been holding it up in the $800 to $900 range for the past week or so.

Now that the Ukraine situation appears to be resolved, then I believe the price point will come down some. I wish I had that crystal ball to know exactly where that point is, as we all do I suppose.

I believe we will see prices in the $400 to $500 range, then slowly rebound.

[MatTheCat]

I believe we will see prices in the $400 to $500 range, then slowly rebound.

This is the price range that almost everyone seems to be betting on....

....and if that is where the herd is going, that is probably where the price is going.

[purefusion]

So what just happened over the past 24h then? Will it be coming back down again any time soon? Or have we recovered that quickly?

[Argwai96]

we're still clearly in a downtrend. we see over the next few days whether that will change.

[DieJohnny]

So what just happened over the past 24h then? Will it be coming back down again any time soon? Or have we recovered that quickly?

bear markets don't hit bottom in a day