The Bitcoin Armageddon

[VolanicEruptor]

New york city used 5GW of electricity in 2001

With bitcoin mining, lets assume 1W/GH of power is required, per hour.

That means 8000KW is required for 8000TH/S network hash rate, per hour.

Now lets assume difficulty doubles every month, as it has been.

8000KW (present)
16000KW (in 2 months)
32000KW (in 3 months)
64000KW (in 4 months)
128000KW (in 5 months)
256000KW (in 6 months)
512000KW (in 7 months)
1GW (in 8 months)
2GW (in 9 months)
4GW (in 10 months)
8GW (in 11 months)
16GW (in 12 months)
32GW (in 13 months)
64GW (in 14 months)

So in 14 months, we would see more power consumption than New york city ANNUALLY in a single hour of bitcoin mining

Obviously the wattage will become more efficient as we build better miners, but there is no way it can keep up.  You would have to see a 2x efficiency improvement every month... and we have not seen that.  But even if you slow down my numbers to account for that, it would still happen in less than a decade.

Eventually the entire world will double its power consumption because of Bitcoin.. and then triple it...

 I am pretty confident we are FUCKED, gentlemen.  

 

[EvilPanda]

Things that come to my mind:
1) Difficulty varies and can go down if needed.
2) If you want to reduce mining costs just turn off the lights. People lose so much just by leaving lights on outside their houses for the night ( like porch, pool, house number).
3) If btc price continues to rise we can all afford paying more. Electric companies will earn more and upgrade their networks, we earn more from mining, win - win.

[arkintunde]

I don't think it will get to that point. You're assuming it will continue to be profitable to mine Bitcoin all throughout that time. Which it won't. Now, that's not to say that people won't use their computer power to mine other stuff instead. Maybe we are doomed LOL.

[VolanicEruptor]

Things that come to my mind:
1) Difficulty varies and can go down if needed.
2) If you want to reduce mining costs just turn off the lights. People lose so much just by leaving lights on outside their houses for the night ( like porch, pool, house number).
3) If btc price continues to rise we can all afford paying more. Electric companies will earn more and upgrade their networks, we earn more from mining, win - win.

1)Difficulty will not go down.  Supply and demand drives the difficulty upwards.  

2) My cointerra machine will need a dedicated circuit in my house.  Leaving the lights on in my house does not use up 1500W an hour.  We are talking massive power here when you're looking at the entire network.  Not even comparable to lights, because light usage does not grow at such an exponential rate.  

3) You're talking cost.  I'm talking depletion of energy resources.  If you think the electric companies can handle a 2X increase in power requirements in 1 month when they already become strained from the system, you're nuts.  

[VolanicEruptor]

I don't think it will get to that point. You're assuming it will continue to be profitable to mine Bitcoin all throughout that time. Which it won't. Now, that's not to say that people won't use their computer power to mine other stuff instead. Maybe we are doomed LOL.

If bitcoin keeps going up, it will continue to be profitable to mine

[babeq]

People just won't be minning, cuz electricity will be cost more than btc mined ;/

[VolanicEruptor]

People just won't be minning, cuz electricity will be cost more than btc mined ;/

but then bitcoin goes up, and it becomes profitable again

[EvilPanda]

People just won't be minning, cuz electricity will be cost more than btc mined ;/

but then bitcoin goes up, and it becomes profitable again

So the only problem is power company being able to support the demand? With the electric cars becoming more popular and people using tripple crossfire setups for gaming they will have to come up with something even if btc goes to the bottom.  Demand for electricity is rising anyway - do you know how much facebook data center is using?

I read about a big solar plant opening few weeks ago. No worries!

[VolanicEruptor]

People just won't be minning, cuz electricity will be cost more than btc mined ;/

but then bitcoin goes up, and it becomes profitable again

So the only problem is power company being able to support the demand? With the electric cars becoming more popular and people using tripple crossfire setups for gaming they will have to come up with something even if btc goes to the bottom.  Demand for electricity is rising anyway - do you know how much facebook data center is using?

I read about a big solar plant opening few weeks ago. No worries!

I don't think you guys understand what 2X/month means.  Imagine facebooks data center power requirements doubling every month.. eventually they would need to harness their energy from other galaxies 

[johnyj]

In not so far future, bitcoin heater will be installed globally in every house in northern countries 

[zimmah]

Shit, i think i should build a power plant.

[mxmz.in]

It's a simple demand/supply quiz. If electricity usage goes up, so does the price.
Then miners will have the incentives to find cheaper sources, like solar power.
That will boost the development in the southern countries.
Everyone wins! 

[VolanicEruptor]

It's a simple demand/supply quiz. If electricity usage goes up, so does the price.
Then miners will have the incentives to find cheaper sources, like solar power.
That will boost the development in the southern countries.
Everyone wins!  

Solar power isn't cheap.
You need the space and the materials to build it.
Okay, so we determine we only need the entire Nevada desert to supply the mining requirements with solar power..
but what about the month after?  We will need twice the room
And the month after that, we'll need 4 times the room..

See what I'm saying?  It's the doubling that fucks us    eventually the entire sun will not be able to keep up with the mining growth

[stompix]

People just won't be minning, cuz electricity will be cost more than btc mined ;/

but then bitcoin goes up, and it becomes profitable again

Bitcoin can't go up forever.
Also there will be lot's of improvements in energy consumptions for asic devices but that's just secondary.

The free market will solve this .

[mxmz.in]

It's a simple demand/supply quiz. If electricity usage goes up, so does the price.
Then miners will have the incentives to find cheaper sources, like solar power.
That will boost the development in the southern countries.
Everyone wins!  

Solar power isn't cheap.
You need the space and the materials to build it.
Okay, so we determine we only need the entire Nevada desert to supply the mining requirements with solar power..
but what about the month after?  We will need twice the room
And the month after that, we'll need 4 times the room..

See what I'm saying?  It's the doubling that fucks us    eventually the entire sun will not be able to keep up with the mining growth

We've got Africa, Central America and Asia, so for the near future we're covered.
When BTC price hits 1mln then space stations will be built to better utilize the lights of other galaxies.

[bitcon]

i thought all the ASIC miners were low wattage devices

[mxmz.in]

i thought all the ASIC miners were low wattage devices

1W for 1GH as per OP is the lowest IMO

[stompix]

8000KW (present)
16000KW (in 2 months)
32000KW (in 3 months)
64000KW (in 4 months)
128000KW (in 5 months)
256000KW (in 6 months)
512000KW (in 7 months)
1GW (in 8 months)
2GW (in 9 months)
4GW (in 10 months)
8GW (in 11 months)
16GW (in 12 months)
32GW (in 13 months)
64GW (in 14 months)

So , let;s assume we have 8000TH , that's 4000 Cointerras

8000KW (present)           need to add another 4000
16000KW (in 2 months)    8000
32000KW (in 3 months)    16000
64000KW (in 4 months)    32000
128000KW (in 5 months)   64000
256000KW (in 6 months)   128000
512000KW (in 7 months)   256000
1GW (in 8 months)        512000
2GW (in 9 months)       1024000
4GW (in 10 months)      2M
8GW (in 11 months)      4M
16GW (in 12 months)     8M
32GW (in 13 months)     16M
64GW (in 14 months)     32M

So , in one month we'll have to produce 32 millions cointerra miners or equivalent.
I see a problem here. Cause that's the amount of Iphones Apple sells in 4 months.

[VolanicEruptor]

i thought all the ASIC miners were low wattage devices

1w/gh is low wattage compared to old GPU/CPU mining..
and so what if it wasn't?  If it was 0.25w/gh, that will only delay this scenerio for 4 months..

[bitcon]

many will just unplug their miners if it is unprofittable or too costly. this will bring power consumption down. the infrastructure will still function but will be exclusive to those with free electric/solar.