VolanicEruptor (OP)
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December 13, 2013, 10:51:29 PM |
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New york city used 5GW of electricity in 2001 With bitcoin mining, lets assume 1W/GH of power is required, per hour. That means 8000KW is required for 8000TH/S network hash rate, per hour. Now lets assume difficulty doubles every month, as it has been. 8000KW (present) 16000KW (in 2 months) 32000KW (in 3 months) 64000KW (in 4 months) 128000KW (in 5 months) 256000KW (in 6 months) 512000KW (in 7 months) 1GW (in 8 months) 2GW (in 9 months) 4GW (in 10 months) 8GW (in 11 months) 16GW (in 12 months) 32GW (in 13 months) 64GW (in 14 months) So in 14 months, we would see more power consumption than New york city ANNUALLY in a single hour of bitcoin mining Obviously the wattage will become more efficient as we build better miners, but there is no way it can keep up. You would have to see a 2x efficiency improvement every month... and we have not seen that. But even if you slow down my numbers to account for that, it would still happen in less than a decade. Eventually the entire world will double its power consumption because of Bitcoin.. and then triple it... I am pretty confident we are FUCKED, gentlemen.
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"I'm sure that in 20 years there will either be very large transaction volume or no volume." -- Satoshi
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EvilPanda
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December 13, 2013, 11:20:11 PM |
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Things that come to my mind: 1) Difficulty varies and can go down if needed. 2) If you want to reduce mining costs just turn off the lights. People lose so much just by leaving lights on outside their houses for the night ( like porch, pool, house number). 3) If btc price continues to rise we can all afford paying more. Electric companies will earn more and upgrade their networks, we earn more from mining, win - win.
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arkintunde
Newbie
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December 13, 2013, 11:23:44 PM |
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I don't think it will get to that point. You're assuming it will continue to be profitable to mine Bitcoin all throughout that time. Which it won't. Now, that's not to say that people won't use their computer power to mine other stuff instead. Maybe we are doomed LOL.
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VolanicEruptor (OP)
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December 13, 2013, 11:24:32 PM |
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Things that come to my mind: 1) Difficulty varies and can go down if needed. 2) If you want to reduce mining costs just turn off the lights. People lose so much just by leaving lights on outside their houses for the night ( like porch, pool, house number). 3) If btc price continues to rise we can all afford paying more. Electric companies will earn more and upgrade their networks, we earn more from mining, win - win.
1)Difficulty will not go down. Supply and demand drives the difficulty upwards. 2) My cointerra machine will need a dedicated circuit in my house. Leaving the lights on in my house does not use up 1500W an hour. We are talking massive power here when you're looking at the entire network. Not even comparable to lights, because light usage does not grow at such an exponential rate. 3) You're talking cost. I'm talking depletion of energy resources. If you think the electric companies can handle a 2X increase in power requirements in 1 month when they already become strained from the system, you're nuts.
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VolanicEruptor (OP)
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December 13, 2013, 11:25:12 PM |
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I don't think it will get to that point. You're assuming it will continue to be profitable to mine Bitcoin all throughout that time. Which it won't. Now, that's not to say that people won't use their computer power to mine other stuff instead. Maybe we are doomed LOL.
If bitcoin keeps going up, it will continue to be profitable to mine
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babeq
Member
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December 13, 2013, 11:26:27 PM |
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People just won't be minning, cuz electricity will be cost more than btc mined ;/
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VolanicEruptor (OP)
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December 13, 2013, 11:27:37 PM |
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People just won't be minning, cuz electricity will be cost more than btc mined ;/
but then bitcoin goes up, and it becomes profitable again
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EvilPanda
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December 13, 2013, 11:39:58 PM |
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People just won't be minning, cuz electricity will be cost more than btc mined ;/
but then bitcoin goes up, and it becomes profitable again So the only problem is power company being able to support the demand? With the electric cars becoming more popular and people using tripple crossfire setups for gaming they will have to come up with something even if btc goes to the bottom. Demand for electricity is rising anyway - do you know how much facebook data center is using? I read about a big solar plant opening few weeks ago. No worries!
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VolanicEruptor (OP)
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December 13, 2013, 11:45:50 PM |
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People just won't be minning, cuz electricity will be cost more than btc mined ;/
but then bitcoin goes up, and it becomes profitable again So the only problem is power company being able to support the demand? With the electric cars becoming more popular and people using tripple crossfire setups for gaming they will have to come up with something even if btc goes to the bottom. Demand for electricity is rising anyway - do you know how much facebook data center is using? I read about a big solar plant opening few weeks ago. No worries! I don't think you guys understand what 2X/month means. Imagine facebooks data center power requirements doubling every month.. eventually they would need to harness their energy from other galaxies
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johnyj
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Beyond Imagination
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December 13, 2013, 11:56:23 PM |
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In not so far future, bitcoin heater will be installed globally in every house in northern countries
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zimmah
Legendary
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Activity: 1106
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December 13, 2013, 11:57:24 PM |
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Shit, i think i should build a power plant.
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mxmz.in
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December 14, 2013, 12:13:32 AM |
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It's a simple demand/supply quiz. If electricity usage goes up, so does the price. Then miners will have the incentives to find cheaper sources, like solar power. That will boost the development in the southern countries. Everyone wins!
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VolanicEruptor (OP)
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December 14, 2013, 12:24:39 AM |
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It's a simple demand/supply quiz. If electricity usage goes up, so does the price. Then miners will have the incentives to find cheaper sources, like solar power. That will boost the development in the southern countries. Everyone wins!
Solar power isn't cheap. You need the space and the materials to build it. Okay, so we determine we only need the entire Nevada desert to supply the mining requirements with solar power.. but what about the month after? We will need twice the room And the month after that, we'll need 4 times the room.. See what I'm saying? It's the doubling that fucks us eventually the entire sun will not be able to keep up with the mining growth
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stompix
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Activity: 2884
Merit: 6313
Blackjack.fun
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December 14, 2013, 12:30:57 AM |
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People just won't be minning, cuz electricity will be cost more than btc mined ;/
but then bitcoin goes up, and it becomes profitable again Bitcoin can't go up forever. Also there will be lot's of improvements in energy consumptions for asic devices but that's just secondary. The free market will solve this .
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. .BLACKJACK ♠ FUN. | | | ███▄██████ ██████████████▀ ████████████ █████████████████ ████████████████▄▄ ░█████████████▀░▀▀ ██████████████████ ░██████████████ █████████████████▄ ░██████████████▀ ████████████ ███████████████░██ ██████████ | | CRYPTO CASINO & SPORTS BETTING | | │ | | │ | ▄▄███████▄▄ ▄███████████████▄ ███████████████████ █████████████████████ ███████████████████████ █████████████████████████ █████████████████████████ █████████████████████████ ███████████████████████ █████████████████████ ███████████████████ ▀███████████████▀ ███████████████████ | | .
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mxmz.in
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December 14, 2013, 12:33:26 AM |
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It's a simple demand/supply quiz. If electricity usage goes up, so does the price. Then miners will have the incentives to find cheaper sources, like solar power. That will boost the development in the southern countries. Everyone wins!
Solar power isn't cheap. You need the space and the materials to build it. Okay, so we determine we only need the entire Nevada desert to supply the mining requirements with solar power.. but what about the month after? We will need twice the room And the month after that, we'll need 4 times the room.. See what I'm saying? It's the doubling that fucks us eventually the entire sun will not be able to keep up with the mining growth We've got Africa, Central America and Asia, so for the near future we're covered. When BTC price hits 1mln then space stations will be built to better utilize the lights of other galaxies.
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bitcon
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December 14, 2013, 12:34:56 AM |
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i thought all the ASIC miners were low wattage devices
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mxmz.in
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December 14, 2013, 12:35:59 AM |
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i thought all the ASIC miners were low wattage devices
1W for 1GH as per OP is the lowest IMO
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stompix
Legendary
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Activity: 2884
Merit: 6313
Blackjack.fun
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December 14, 2013, 12:44:12 AM |
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8000KW (present) 16000KW (in 2 months) 32000KW (in 3 months) 64000KW (in 4 months) 128000KW (in 5 months) 256000KW (in 6 months) 512000KW (in 7 months) 1GW (in 8 months) 2GW (in 9 months) 4GW (in 10 months) 8GW (in 11 months) 16GW (in 12 months) 32GW (in 13 months) 64GW (in 14 months)
So , let;s assume we have 8000TH , that's 4000 Cointerras 8000KW (present) need to add another 4000 16000KW (in 2 months) 8000 32000KW (in 3 months) 16000 64000KW (in 4 months) 32000 128000KW (in 5 months) 64000 256000KW (in 6 months) 128000 512000KW (in 7 months) 256000 1GW (in 8 months) 512000 2GW (in 9 months) 1024000 4GW (in 10 months) 2M 8GW (in 11 months) 4M 16GW (in 12 months) 8M 32GW (in 13 months) 16M 64GW (in 14 months) 32M So , in one month we'll have to produce 32 millions cointerra miners or equivalent. I see a problem here. Cause that's the amount of Iphones Apple sells in 4 months.
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. .BLACKJACK ♠ FUN. | | | ███▄██████ ██████████████▀ ████████████ █████████████████ ████████████████▄▄ ░█████████████▀░▀▀ ██████████████████ ░██████████████ █████████████████▄ ░██████████████▀ ████████████ ███████████████░██ ██████████ | | CRYPTO CASINO & SPORTS BETTING | | │ | | │ | ▄▄███████▄▄ ▄███████████████▄ ███████████████████ █████████████████████ ███████████████████████ █████████████████████████ █████████████████████████ █████████████████████████ ███████████████████████ █████████████████████ ███████████████████ ▀███████████████▀ ███████████████████ | | .
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VolanicEruptor (OP)
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December 14, 2013, 12:46:24 AM |
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i thought all the ASIC miners were low wattage devices
1w/gh is low wattage compared to old GPU/CPU mining.. and so what if it wasn't? If it was 0.25w/gh, that will only delay this scenerio for 4 months..
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bitcon
Legendary
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Activity: 2212
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December 14, 2013, 12:46:53 AM |
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many will just unplug their miners if it is unprofittable or too costly. this will bring power consumption down. the infrastructure will still function but will be exclusive to those with free electric/solar.
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VolanicEruptor (OP)
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December 14, 2013, 12:47:31 AM |
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8000KW (present) 16000KW (in 2 months) 32000KW (in 3 months) 64000KW (in 4 months) 128000KW (in 5 months) 256000KW (in 6 months) 512000KW (in 7 months) 1GW (in 8 months) 2GW (in 9 months) 4GW (in 10 months) 8GW (in 11 months) 16GW (in 12 months) 32GW (in 13 months) 64GW (in 14 months)
So , let;s assume we have 8000TH , that's 4000 Cointerras 8000KW (present) need to add another 4000 16000KW (in 2 months) 8000 32000KW (in 3 months) 16000 64000KW (in 4 months) 32000 128000KW (in 5 months) 64000 256000KW (in 6 months) 128000 512000KW (in 7 months) 256000 1GW (in 8 months) 512000 2GW (in 9 months) 1024000 4GW (in 10 months) 2M 8GW (in 11 months) 4M 16GW (in 12 months) 8M 32GW (in 13 months) 16M 64GW (in 14 months) 32M So , in one month we'll have to produce 32 millions cointerra miners or equivalent. I see a problem here. Cause that's the amount of Iphones Apple sells in 4 months. yes obviously it's not possible to double forever.. eventually we will either run out of energy or material. Either way it's not good..
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stompix
Legendary
Offline
Activity: 2884
Merit: 6313
Blackjack.fun
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December 14, 2013, 12:57:26 AM |
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8000KW (present) 16000KW (in 2 months) 32000KW (in 3 months) 64000KW (in 4 months) 128000KW (in 5 months) 256000KW (in 6 months) 512000KW (in 7 months) 1GW (in 8 months) 2GW (in 9 months) 4GW (in 10 months) 8GW (in 11 months) 16GW (in 12 months) 32GW (in 13 months) 64GW (in 14 months)
So , let;s assume we have 8000TH , that's 4000 Cointerras 8000KW (present) need to add another 4000 16000KW (in 2 months) 8000 32000KW (in 3 months) 16000 64000KW (in 4 months) 32000 128000KW (in 5 months) 64000 256000KW (in 6 months) 128000 512000KW (in 7 months) 256000 1GW (in 8 months) 512000 2GW (in 9 months) 1024000 4GW (in 10 months) 2M 8GW (in 11 months) 4M 16GW (in 12 months) 8M 32GW (in 13 months) 16M 64GW (in 14 months) 32M So , in one month we'll have to produce 32 millions cointerra miners or equivalent. I see a problem here. Cause that's the amount of Iphones Apple sells in 4 months. yes obviously it's not possible to double forever.. eventually we will either run out of energy or material. Either way it's not good.. I'm a bit tired but let's give it a try: 8000 kw should be 19 000 usd. nice cost /block reward 8MW/20000 USD , that would lead to 64GW 160 millions cost/ day. Well , just to cover the cost 1 bitcoin should be worth 50 000. And this if forgetting about the cost of equipment. And the halving in the next years. I don't see a problem with electricity cost at all. Again , maybe I made a mistake with the cost but still...
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. .BLACKJACK ♠ FUN. | | | ███▄██████ ██████████████▀ ████████████ █████████████████ ████████████████▄▄ ░█████████████▀░▀▀ ██████████████████ ░██████████████ █████████████████▄ ░██████████████▀ ████████████ ███████████████░██ ██████████ | | CRYPTO CASINO & SPORTS BETTING | | │ | | │ | ▄▄███████▄▄ ▄███████████████▄ ███████████████████ █████████████████████ ███████████████████████ █████████████████████████ █████████████████████████ █████████████████████████ ███████████████████████ █████████████████████ ███████████████████ ▀███████████████▀ ███████████████████ | | .
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hmmkay
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December 14, 2013, 01:01:24 AM |
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Die-shrink of chips also brings better power efficiency. So it won't be doubled constantly.
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VolanicEruptor (OP)
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December 14, 2013, 01:03:11 AM |
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8000KW (present) 16000KW (in 2 months) 32000KW (in 3 months) 64000KW (in 4 months) 128000KW (in 5 months) 256000KW (in 6 months) 512000KW (in 7 months) 1GW (in 8 months) 2GW (in 9 months) 4GW (in 10 months) 8GW (in 11 months) 16GW (in 12 months) 32GW (in 13 months) 64GW (in 14 months)
So , let;s assume we have 8000TH , that's 4000 Cointerras 8000KW (present) need to add another 4000 16000KW (in 2 months) 8000 32000KW (in 3 months) 16000 64000KW (in 4 months) 32000 128000KW (in 5 months) 64000 256000KW (in 6 months) 128000 512000KW (in 7 months) 256000 1GW (in 8 months) 512000 2GW (in 9 months) 1024000 4GW (in 10 months) 2M 8GW (in 11 months) 4M 16GW (in 12 months) 8M 32GW (in 13 months) 16M 64GW (in 14 months) 32M So , in one month we'll have to produce 32 millions cointerra miners or equivalent. I see a problem here. Cause that's the amount of Iphones Apple sells in 4 months. yes obviously it's not possible to double forever.. eventually we will either run out of energy or material. Either way it's not good.. I'm a bit tired but let's give it a try: 8000 kw should be 19 000 usd. nice cost /block reward 8MW/20000 USD , that would lead to 64GW 160 millions cost/ day. Well , just to cover the cost 1 bitcoin should be worth 50 000. And this if forgetting about the cost of equipment. And the halving in the next years. I don't see a problem with electricity cost at all. Again , maybe I made a mistake with the cost but still... 64GW/hour.. not day.. and even if there is no problem, what about when its 128GW, then 256GW, then 512GW?? don't stop there..
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VolanicEruptor (OP)
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December 14, 2013, 01:04:48 AM |
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Die-shrink of chips also brings better power efficiency. So it won't be doubled constantly.
So if we increase the power efficiency by 8x, then that delays this scenerio by 4 months.. like i said, our efficiency has not been keeping up with the growth
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pontiacg5
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December 14, 2013, 01:09:48 AM |
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Assuming the ridiculous assumption that it were possible for difficulty to keep climbing like it is, eventually the power companies would have to charge more for power. They'd be able to justify the increase with expenses for added capacity. Maybe bitcoin will force the upgrade our US electrical grid apparently needs.
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Please DO NOT send me private messages asking for help setting up GPU miners. I will not respond!!!
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stompix
Legendary
Offline
Activity: 2884
Merit: 6313
Blackjack.fun
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December 14, 2013, 01:10:21 AM |
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8000KW (present) 16000KW (in 2 months) 32000KW (in 3 months) 64000KW (in 4 months) 128000KW (in 5 months) 256000KW (in 6 months) 512000KW (in 7 months) 1GW (in 8 months) 2GW (in 9 months) 4GW (in 10 months) 8GW (in 11 months) 16GW (in 12 months) 32GW (in 13 months) 64GW (in 14 months)
So , let;s assume we have 8000TH , that's 4000 Cointerras 8000KW (present) need to add another 4000 16000KW (in 2 months) 8000 32000KW (in 3 months) 16000 64000KW (in 4 months) 32000 128000KW (in 5 months) 64000 256000KW (in 6 months) 128000 512000KW (in 7 months) 256000 1GW (in 8 months) 512000 2GW (in 9 months) 1024000 4GW (in 10 months) 2M 8GW (in 11 months) 4M 16GW (in 12 months) 8M 32GW (in 13 months) 16M 64GW (in 14 months) 32M So , in one month we'll have to produce 32 millions cointerra miners or equivalent. I see a problem here. Cause that's the amount of Iphones Apple sells in 4 months. yes obviously it's not possible to double forever.. eventually we will either run out of energy or material. Either way it's not good.. I'm a bit tired but let's give it a try: 8000 kw should be 19 000 usd. nice cost /block reward 8MW/20000 USD , that would lead to 64GW 160 millions cost/ day. Well , just to cover the cost 1 bitcoin should be worth 50 000. And this if forgetting about the cost of equipment. And the halving in the next years. I don't see a problem with electricity cost at all. Again , maybe I made a mistake with the cost but still... 64GW/hour.. not day.. and even if there is no problem, what about when its 128GW, then 256GW, then 512GW?? don't stop there.. Yeah , 64GW/hour will end up costing you 160millions daily. If we have a consumption of 512GW it's gonna be 1280 millions , 1.2 billion. Let's watch the picture in a few years , block reward halved twice. The reward is only 1000 day. one bitcoin should be worth 1 million dollars to sustain only the electricity cost and almost 2.5 millions to cover the expenses with the equipment. You see now the problem with this ?
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. .BLACKJACK ♠ FUN. | | | ███▄██████ ██████████████▀ ████████████ █████████████████ ████████████████▄▄ ░█████████████▀░▀▀ ██████████████████ ░██████████████ █████████████████▄ ░██████████████▀ ████████████ ███████████████░██ ██████████ | | CRYPTO CASINO & SPORTS BETTING | | │ | | │ | ▄▄███████▄▄ ▄███████████████▄ ███████████████████ █████████████████████ ███████████████████████ █████████████████████████ █████████████████████████ █████████████████████████ ███████████████████████ █████████████████████ ███████████████████ ▀███████████████▀ ███████████████████ | | .
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VolanicEruptor (OP)
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December 14, 2013, 01:19:59 AM |
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bitcoin mining will become illegal in most countries because of ridiculous waste of resources and power and this post will be part of the history books thank you
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porc
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December 14, 2013, 01:24:04 AM |
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bitcoin mining will become illegal in most countries because of ridiculous waste of resources and power and this post will be part of the history books thank you So let me get this right: If more people mine bitcoins difficulty increases and thus energy consumption. If energy consumption increases due to more people mining without a price increase, people will stop mining. Thus, you are assuming that the price continues to go up to justify this energy consumption, which it wont.
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stompix
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Blackjack.fun
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December 14, 2013, 01:25:31 AM |
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bitcoin mining will become illegal in most countries because of ridiculous waste of resources and power and this post will be part of the history books thank you .. in the section , worst predictions ever? http://shareranks.com/499,The-Worst-Predictions-EverPick your place
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. .BLACKJACK ♠ FUN. | | | ███▄██████ ██████████████▀ ████████████ █████████████████ ████████████████▄▄ ░█████████████▀░▀▀ ██████████████████ ░██████████████ █████████████████▄ ░██████████████▀ ████████████ ███████████████░██ ██████████ | | CRYPTO CASINO & SPORTS BETTING | | │ | | │ | ▄▄███████▄▄ ▄███████████████▄ ███████████████████ █████████████████████ ███████████████████████ █████████████████████████ █████████████████████████ █████████████████████████ ███████████████████████ █████████████████████ ███████████████████ ▀███████████████▀ ███████████████████ | | .
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VolanicEruptor (OP)
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December 14, 2013, 01:28:44 AM |
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bitcoin mining will become illegal in most countries because of ridiculous waste of resources and power and this post will be part of the history books thank you So let me get this right: If you more people mine bitcoins difficulty increases and thus energy consumption. If energy consumption increases due to more people mining without a price increase, people will stop mining. Thus, you are assuming that the price continues to go up to justify this energy consumption, which it wont. people won't stop mining though if the bitcoin price keeps going up. if we see a $100,000 bitcoin, we're in big trouble with everybody raping energy resources to mine
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arkintunde
Newbie
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December 14, 2013, 01:37:46 AM |
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So , in one month we'll have to produce 32 millions cointerra miners or equivalent. I see a problem here. Cause that's the amount of Iphones Apple sells in 4 months.
Lol, good point. This will not be happening.
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porc
Member
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December 14, 2013, 01:38:09 AM |
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bitcoin mining will become illegal in most countries because of ridiculous waste of resources and power and this post will be part of the history books thank you So let me get this right: If you more people mine bitcoins difficulty increases and thus energy consumption. If energy consumption increases due to more people mining without a price increase, people will stop mining. Thus, you are assuming that the price continues to go up to justify this energy consumption, which it wont. people won't stop mining though if the bitcoin price keeps going up. if we see a $100,000 bitcoin, we're in big trouble with everybody raping energy resources to mine So your scenario assumes, a $ 100.000 price tag. LOL. If energy costs are unsustainable, so is Bitcoin. Thus we would never see this price.
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VolanicEruptor (OP)
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December 14, 2013, 01:41:38 AM |
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bitcoin mining will become illegal in most countries because of ridiculous waste of resources and power and this post will be part of the history books thank you So let me get this right: If you more people mine bitcoins difficulty increases and thus energy consumption. If energy consumption increases due to more people mining without a price increase, people will stop mining. Thus, you are assuming that the price continues to go up to justify this energy consumption, which it wont. people won't stop mining though if the bitcoin price keeps going up. if we see a $100,000 bitcoin, we're in big trouble with everybody raping energy resources to mine So your scenario assumes, a $ 100.000 price tag. LOL. If energy costs are unsustainable, so is Bitcoin. Thus we would never see this price. I believe we would run out of resources before finding out that it is "unsustainable"
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EvilPanda
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December 14, 2013, 01:41:53 AM |
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bitcoin mining will become illegal in most countries because of ridiculous waste of resources and power and this post will be part of the history books thank you .. in the section , worst predictions ever? http://shareranks.com/499,The-Worst-Predictions-EverPick your place Few years later: Top voted worst prediction ever by VolanicEruptor, a bitcointalk forum user, December 2013.
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VolanicEruptor (OP)
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December 14, 2013, 01:43:03 AM |
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Give it a few years. You'll see..
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stompix
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Blackjack.fun
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December 14, 2013, 01:44:26 AM |
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Give it a few years. You'll see..
You know , since the amount of bitcoins per block , mined as a reward will be halving , time is not quite your ally.
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. .BLACKJACK ♠ FUN. | | | ███▄██████ ██████████████▀ ████████████ █████████████████ ████████████████▄▄ ░█████████████▀░▀▀ ██████████████████ ░██████████████ █████████████████▄ ░██████████████▀ ████████████ ███████████████░██ ██████████ | | CRYPTO CASINO & SPORTS BETTING | | │ | | │ | ▄▄███████▄▄ ▄███████████████▄ ███████████████████ █████████████████████ ███████████████████████ █████████████████████████ █████████████████████████ █████████████████████████ ███████████████████████ █████████████████████ ███████████████████ ▀███████████████▀ ███████████████████ | | .
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porc
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December 14, 2013, 01:46:08 AM |
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bitcoin mining will become illegal in most countries because of ridiculous waste of resources and power and this post will be part of the history books thank you So let me get this right: If you more people mine bitcoins difficulty increases and thus energy consumption. If energy consumption increases due to more people mining without a price increase, people will stop mining. Thus, you are assuming that the price continues to go up to justify this energy consumption, which it wont. people won't stop mining though if the bitcoin price keeps going up. if we see a $100,000 bitcoin, we're in big trouble with everybody raping energy resources to mine So your scenario assumes, a $ 100.000 price tag. LOL. If energy costs are unsustainable, so is Bitcoin. Thus we would never see this price. I believe we would run out of resources before finding out that it is "unsustainable" LOL. If your energy cost assumptions are correct, bitcoins price will collapse, as market participants will realize that the system is unsustainable. Its absurd to imply, that you are the only one who would figure this out.
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VolanicEruptor (OP)
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December 14, 2013, 01:57:53 AM |
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what do you call a collapse though? from $100,000 down to $10,000?
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pontiacg5
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December 14, 2013, 02:00:16 AM |
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what do you call a collapse though? from $100,000 down to $10,000? Where did $10,000 come from, or $100,000 for that matter? You do realize there is no guarantee bitcoin is to continue increasing in value, right? Likewise there is no reason bitcoin can't be successful without being $100,000?
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Please DO NOT send me private messages asking for help setting up GPU miners. I will not respond!!!
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porc
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December 14, 2013, 02:00:53 AM |
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what do you call a collapse though? from $100,000 down to $10,000? If you are correct, and Bitcoin is not scale-able due to exploding energy costs, cryptocurrency fans will move to a new coin. Bitcoin would collapse to 0, if you are correct.
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empoweoqwj
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December 14, 2013, 02:01:50 AM |
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New york city used 5GW of electricity in 2001 With bitcoin mining, lets assume 1W/GH of power is required, per hour. That means 8000KW is required for 8000TH/S network hash rate, per hour. Now lets assume difficulty doubles every month, as it has been. 8000KW (present) 16000KW (in 2 months) 32000KW (in 3 months) 64000KW (in 4 months) 128000KW (in 5 months) 256000KW (in 6 months) 512000KW (in 7 months) 1GW (in 8 months) 2GW (in 9 months) 4GW (in 10 months) 8GW (in 11 months) 16GW (in 12 months) 32GW (in 13 months) 64GW (in 14 months) So in 14 months, we would see more power consumption than New york city ANNUALLY in a single hour of bitcoin mining Obviously the wattage will become more efficient as we build better miners, but there is no way it can keep up. You would have to see a 2x efficiency improvement every month... and we have not seen that. But even if you slow down my numbers to account for that, it would still happen in less than a decade. Eventually the entire world will double its power consumption because of Bitcoin.. and then triple it... I am pretty confident we are FUCKED, gentlemen. If electricity becomes too expensive to mine, people will stop mining, and the network hash rate will stabilize or drop. People won't mine to lose money ..... oops, my bad, most do that already
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VolanicEruptor (OP)
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December 14, 2013, 02:05:48 AM |
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what do you call a collapse though? from $100,000 down to $10,000? If you are correct, and Bitcoin is not scale-able due to exploding energy costs, cryptocurrency fans will move to a new coin. Bitcoin would collapse to 0, if you are correct. You do not know how supply and demand works.
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porc
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December 14, 2013, 02:11:36 AM |
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what do you call a collapse though? from $100,000 down to $10,000? If you are correct, and Bitcoin is not scale-able due to exploding energy costs, cryptocurrency fans will move to a new coin. Bitcoin would collapse to 0, if you are correct. You do not know how supply and demand works. Your assumption: 1) Bitcoin is not scale-able, due to energy costs exploding. 2) Nobody will notice and price will continue going up 3) Armageddon Assumption 2) is off base. Market participants would notice, and price would collapse. Cryptofans would move to a sustainable coin.
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VolanicEruptor (OP)
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December 14, 2013, 02:15:38 AM |
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what do you call a collapse though? from $100,000 down to $10,000? If you are correct, and Bitcoin is not scale-able due to exploding energy costs, cryptocurrency fans will move to a new coin. Bitcoin would collapse to 0, if you are correct. You do not know how supply and demand works. Your assumption: 1) Bitcoin is not scale-able, due to energy costs exploding. 2) Nobody will notice and price will continue going up 3) Armageddon Assumption 2) is off base. Market participants would notice, and price would collapse. Cryptofans would move to a sustainable coin. nope. it's not just a matter of "noticing and then getting out". That's not how long-term system failure works.
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porc
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December 14, 2013, 02:20:19 AM |
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what do you call a collapse though? from $100,000 down to $10,000? If you are correct, and Bitcoin is not scale-able due to exploding energy costs, cryptocurrency fans will move to a new coin. Bitcoin would collapse to 0, if you are correct. You do not know how supply and demand works. Your assumption: 1) Bitcoin is not scale-able, due to energy costs exploding. 2) Nobody will notice and price will continue going up 3) Armageddon Assumption 2) is off base. Market participants would notice, and price would collapse. Cryptofans would move to a sustainable coin. nope. it's not just a matter of "noticing and then getting out". That's not how long-term system failure works. So market participants dont understand exponential energy cost explosions??? Like sheep they would continue to bid the price up and run over the edge of a cliff. So you are saying you would be the only one wise enough to see, that the system is not sustainable. Lol. Pure arrogance.
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pand70
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December 14, 2013, 02:21:27 AM |
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If difficulty keeps doubling for the next 14 months i think the price will be through the roof. So we are not exactly fucked
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VolanicEruptor (OP)
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December 14, 2013, 02:21:39 AM |
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what do you call a collapse though? from $100,000 down to $10,000? If you are correct, and Bitcoin is not scale-able due to exploding energy costs, cryptocurrency fans will move to a new coin. Bitcoin would collapse to 0, if you are correct. You do not know how supply and demand works. Your assumption: 1) Bitcoin is not scale-able, due to energy costs exploding. 2) Nobody will notice and price will continue going up 3) Armageddon Assumption 2) is off base. Market participants would notice, and price would collapse. Cryptofans would move to a sustainable coin. nope. it's not just a matter of "noticing and then getting out". That's not how long-term system failure works. So market participants dont understand exponential energy cost explosions??? Like sheep they would continue to bid the price up and run over the edge of a cliff. So you are saying you would be the only one wise enough to see, that the system is not sustainable. Lol. Pure arrogance. You made another false assumption.. i never said that
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VolanicEruptor (OP)
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December 14, 2013, 02:22:25 AM |
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If difficulty keeps doubling for the next 14 months i think the price will be through the roof. So we are not exactly fucked it will be very nice for people who own bitcoin, yes but there is a whole world outside of bitcoin
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porc
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December 14, 2013, 02:23:02 AM |
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what do you call a collapse though? from $100,000 down to $10,000? If you are correct, and Bitcoin is not scale-able due to exploding energy costs, cryptocurrency fans will move to a new coin. Bitcoin would collapse to 0, if you are correct. You do not know how supply and demand works. Your assumption: 1) Bitcoin is not scale-able, due to energy costs exploding. 2) Nobody will notice and price will continue going up 3) Armageddon Assumption 2) is off base. Market participants would notice, and price would collapse. Cryptofans would move to a sustainable coin. nope. it's not just a matter of "noticing and then getting out". That's not how long-term system failure works. So market participants dont understand exponential energy cost explosions??? Like sheep they would continue to bid the price up and run over the edge of a cliff. So you are saying you would be the only one wise enough to see, that the system is not sustainable. Lol. Pure arrogance. You made another false assumption.. i never said that What exactly are you saying? Your title: Bitcoin Armageddon. How?
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VolanicEruptor (OP)
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December 14, 2013, 02:24:06 AM |
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what do you call a collapse though? from $100,000 down to $10,000? If you are correct, and Bitcoin is not scale-able due to exploding energy costs, cryptocurrency fans will move to a new coin. Bitcoin would collapse to 0, if you are correct. You do not know how supply and demand works. Your assumption: 1) Bitcoin is not scale-able, due to energy costs exploding. 2) Nobody will notice and price will continue going up 3) Armageddon Assumption 2) is off base. Market participants would notice, and price would collapse. Cryptofans would move to a sustainable coin. nope. it's not just a matter of "noticing and then getting out". That's not how long-term system failure works. So market participants dont understand exponential energy cost explosions??? Like sheep they would continue to bid the price up and run over the edge of a cliff. So you are saying you would be the only one wise enough to see, that the system is not sustainable. Lol. Pure arrogance. You made another false assumption.. i never said that What exactly are you saying? Your title: Bitcoin Armageddon. How? Read the first post.
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porc
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December 14, 2013, 02:29:10 AM |
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what do you call a collapse though? from $100,000 down to $10,000? If you are correct, and Bitcoin is not scale-able due to exploding energy costs, cryptocurrency fans will move to a new coin. Bitcoin would collapse to 0, if you are correct. You do not know how supply and demand works. Your assumption: 1) Bitcoin is not scale-able, due to energy costs exploding. 2) Nobody will notice and price will continue going up 3) Armageddon Assumption 2) is off base. Market participants would notice, and price would collapse. Cryptofans would move to a sustainable coin. nope. it's not just a matter of "noticing and then getting out". That's not how long-term system failure works. So market participants dont understand exponential energy cost explosions??? Like sheep they would continue to bid the price up and run over the edge of a cliff. So you are saying you would be the only one wise enough to see, that the system is not sustainable. Lol. Pure arrogance. You made another false assumption.. i never said that What exactly are you saying? Your title: Bitcoin Armageddon. How? Read the first post. LOL. You are filibustering. 1) yes obviously it's not possible to double forever.. eventually we will either run out of energy or material. Either way it's not good..
2) + 3) people won't stop mining though if the bitcoin price keeps going up.
if we see a $100,000 bitcoin, we're in big trouble with everybody raping energy resources to mine
Your assumptions: 1) Energy consumption is unsustainable 2) Despite this being the case, people will continue to bid the price up. 3) Armageddon. What assumption am I misrepresenting?
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VolanicEruptor (OP)
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December 14, 2013, 02:30:46 AM |
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this assumption: "So market participants dont understand exponential energy cost explosions??? Like sheep they would continue to bid the price up and run over the edge of a cliff. So you are saying you would be the only one wise enough to see, that the system is not sustainable."
it's just wrong because I never said that
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porc
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December 14, 2013, 02:32:42 AM |
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this assumption: "So market participants dont understand exponential energy cost explosions??? Like sheep they would continue to bid the price up and run over the edge of a cliff. So you are saying you would be the only one wise enough to see, that the system is not sustainable."
it's just wrong because I never said that
You are implying this with continued price increase despite the system being unsustainable:
people won't stop mining though if the bitcoin price keeps going up.
if we see a $100,000 bitcoin, we're in big trouble with everybody raping energy resources to mine
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VolanicEruptor (OP)
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December 14, 2013, 02:38:35 AM |
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You are implying this with continued price increase despite the system being unsustainable.
no, I never implied this. You made the assumption yourself. The timeline is not black and white. It is a long, gradual process in which our resources are used up at an exponentially rapid rate. No big concepts to grab, pretty simple..
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empoweoqwj
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December 14, 2013, 02:39:35 AM |
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when's the last coin being mined? Think of all the energy surplus then ....
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stompix
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Blackjack.fun
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December 14, 2013, 02:40:33 AM |
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this assumption: "So market participants dont understand exponential energy cost explosions??? Like sheep they would continue to bid the price up and run over the edge of a cliff. So you are saying you would be the only one wise enough to see, that the system is not sustainable."
it's just wrong because I never said that
You are implying this with continued price increase despite the system being unsustainable:
people won't stop mining though if the bitcoin price keeps going up.
if we see a $100,000 bitcoin, we're in big trouble with everybody raping energy resources to mine
At least , he still has some energy left to troll around. I wouldn't bother with him anymore.
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. .BLACKJACK ♠ FUN. | | | ███▄██████ ██████████████▀ ████████████ █████████████████ ████████████████▄▄ ░█████████████▀░▀▀ ██████████████████ ░██████████████ █████████████████▄ ░██████████████▀ ████████████ ███████████████░██ ██████████ | | CRYPTO CASINO & SPORTS BETTING | | │ | | │ | ▄▄███████▄▄ ▄███████████████▄ ███████████████████ █████████████████████ ███████████████████████ █████████████████████████ █████████████████████████ █████████████████████████ ███████████████████████ █████████████████████ ███████████████████ ▀███████████████▀ ███████████████████ | | .
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stompix
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December 14, 2013, 02:42:45 AM |
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when's the last coin being mined? Think of all the energy surplus then .... The all the plants will close down , lots of jobs lost , factories producing equipment closed down , BTC collapses , and we end up wondering , why the hell did we spend 100 years doing puzzles ? =))))))))))))
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. .BLACKJACK ♠ FUN. | | | ███▄██████ ██████████████▀ ████████████ █████████████████ ████████████████▄▄ ░█████████████▀░▀▀ ██████████████████ ░██████████████ █████████████████▄ ░██████████████▀ ████████████ ███████████████░██ ██████████ | | CRYPTO CASINO & SPORTS BETTING | | │ | | │ | ▄▄███████▄▄ ▄███████████████▄ ███████████████████ █████████████████████ ███████████████████████ █████████████████████████ █████████████████████████ █████████████████████████ ███████████████████████ █████████████████████ ███████████████████ ▀███████████████▀ ███████████████████ | | .
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porc
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December 14, 2013, 02:44:05 AM |
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You are implying this with continued price increase despite the system being unsustainable.
no, I never implied this. You made the assumption yourself. The timeline is not black and white. It is a long, gradual process in which our resources are used up at an exponentially rapid rate. No big concepts to grab, pretty simple.. YES YOU DID.
people won't stop mining though if the bitcoin price keeps going up.
if we see a $100,000 bitcoin, we're in big trouble with everybody raping energy resources to mine
Why would the price keep going up, if the system is unstainable. You are implying that market participants BUY DESPITE THE SYTEM BEING UNSUSTAINABLE. Thus they must be STUPID. You are implying that market participants ARE MORONS.
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empoweoqwj
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December 14, 2013, 02:45:37 AM |
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when's the last coin being mined? Think of all the energy surplus then .... The all the plants will close down , lots of jobs lost , factories producing equipment closed down , BTC collapses , and we end up wondering , why the hell did we spend 100 years doing puzzles ? =)))))))))))) But by that time there will around 5 million altcoins that need feeding ..... now even I'm getting scared. I'd rather have power to my computer and TV than have it all sent to mining farms.
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VolanicEruptor (OP)
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December 14, 2013, 02:47:15 AM |
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You are implying this with continued price increase despite the system being unsustainable.
no, I never implied this. You made the assumption yourself. The timeline is not black and white. It is a long, gradual process in which our resources are used up at an exponentially rapid rate. No big concepts to grab, pretty simple.. YES YOU DID.
people won't stop mining though if the bitcoin price keeps going up.
if we see a $100,000 bitcoin, we're in big trouble with everybody raping energy resources to mine
Why would the price keep going up, if the system is unstainable. You are implying that market participants BUY DESPITE THE SYTEM BEING UNSUSTAINABLE. Thus they must be STUPID. You are implying that market participants ARE MORONS. I would never imply that the market participants are morons. Not at all. We all want a piece of this wonderful boom. The system does not "appear completely sustainable" one day, and not the next it is rather a long and drawn out process. You just need to think outside the box a little.
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porc
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December 14, 2013, 02:52:24 AM |
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You are implying this with continued price increase despite the system being unsustainable.
no, I never implied this. You made the assumption yourself. The timeline is not black and white. It is a long, gradual process in which our resources are used up at an exponentially rapid rate. No big concepts to grab, pretty simple.. YES YOU DID.
people won't stop mining though if the bitcoin price keeps going up.
if we see a $100,000 bitcoin, we're in big trouble with everybody raping energy resources to mine
Why would the price keep going up, if the system is unstainable. You are implying that market participants BUY DESPITE THE SYTEM BEING UNSUSTAINABLE. Thus they must be STUPID. You are implying that market participants ARE MORONS. I would never imply that the market participants are morons. Not at all. We all want a piece of this wonderful boom. The system does not "appear completely sustainable" one day, and not the next it is rather a long and drawn out process. You just need to think outside the box a little. Either it is sustainable or it is not. If you are correct, and it is not sustainable, the price must collapse. Now you saying that a unsustainable system BOOMS is absurd.
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empoweoqwj
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December 14, 2013, 02:53:49 AM |
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Popcorn time
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VolanicEruptor (OP)
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December 14, 2013, 02:54:24 AM |
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You are implying this with continued price increase despite the system being unsustainable.
no, I never implied this. You made the assumption yourself. The timeline is not black and white. It is a long, gradual process in which our resources are used up at an exponentially rapid rate. No big concepts to grab, pretty simple.. YES YOU DID.
people won't stop mining though if the bitcoin price keeps going up.
if we see a $100,000 bitcoin, we're in big trouble with everybody raping energy resources to mine
Why would the price keep going up, if the system is unstainable. You are implying that market participants BUY DESPITE THE SYTEM BEING UNSUSTAINABLE. Thus they must be STUPID. You are implying that market participants ARE MORONS. I would never imply that the market participants are morons. Not at all. We all want a piece of this wonderful boom. The system does not "appear completely sustainable" one day, and not the next it is rather a long and drawn out process. You just need to think outside the box a little. Now you saying that a unsustainable system BOOMS is absurd. Me no understand ur english. Come again? This is not absurd, it is just simple acknowledgement that difficulty is going up faster than our resources can handle it.
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porc
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December 14, 2013, 02:58:29 AM |
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You are implying this with continued price increase despite the system being unsustainable.
no, I never implied this. You made the assumption yourself. The timeline is not black and white. It is a long, gradual process in which our resources are used up at an exponentially rapid rate. No big concepts to grab, pretty simple.. YES YOU DID.
people won't stop mining though if the bitcoin price keeps going up.
if we see a $100,000 bitcoin, we're in big trouble with everybody raping energy resources to mine
Why would the price keep going up, if the system is unstainable. You are implying that market participants BUY DESPITE THE SYTEM BEING UNSUSTAINABLE. Thus they must be STUPID. You are implying that market participants ARE MORONS. I would never imply that the market participants are morons. Not at all. We all want a piece of this wonderful boom. The system does not "appear completely sustainable" one day, and not the next it is rather a long and drawn out process. You just need to think outside the box a little. Now you saying that a unsustainable system BOOMS is absurd. Me no understand ur english. Come again? This is not absurd, it is just simple acknowledgement that difficulty is going up faster than our resources can handle it. The bolded part is you stating that Bitcoin is not SCALABLE. You STATING THAT A SYSTEM THAT IS NOT SCALABLE WILL CONTINUE TO SCALE IS ABSURD. MARKET PARTICIPANTS WOULD FIGURE OUT THAT THEY ARE RUNNING TOWARDS THE EDGE OF A CLIFF. END OF DISCUSSION.
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stompix
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Blackjack.fun
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December 14, 2013, 03:03:03 AM |
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You are implying this with continued price increase despite the system being unsustainable.
no, I never implied this. You made the assumption yourself. The timeline is not black and white. It is a long, gradual process in which our resources are used up at an exponentially rapid rate. No big concepts to grab, pretty simple.. YES YOU DID.
people won't stop mining though if the bitcoin price keeps going up.
if we see a $100,000 bitcoin, we're in big trouble with everybody raping energy resources to mine
Why would the price keep going up, if the system is unstainable. You are implying that market participants BUY DESPITE THE SYTEM BEING UNSUSTAINABLE. Thus they must be STUPID. You are implying that market participants ARE MORONS. I would never imply that the market participants are morons. Not at all. We all want a piece of this wonderful boom. The system does not "appear completely sustainable" one day, and not the next it is rather a long and drawn out process. You just need to think outside the box a little. Now you saying that a unsustainable system BOOMS is absurd. Me no understand ur english. Come again? This is not absurd, it is just simple acknowledgement that difficulty is going up faster than our resources can handle it. The bolded part is you stating that Bitcoin is not SCALABLE. You STATING THAT A SYSTEM THAT IS NOT SCALABLE WILL CONTINUE TO SCALE IS ABSURD. MARKET PARTICIPANTS WOULD FIGURE OUT THAT THEY ARE RUNNING TOWARDS THE EDGE OF A CLIFF. END OF DISCUSSION. I've warned you to stop trying to convince him of actual facts. This is what you get for feeding a troll.
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. .BLACKJACK ♠ FUN. | | | ███▄██████ ██████████████▀ ████████████ █████████████████ ████████████████▄▄ ░█████████████▀░▀▀ ██████████████████ ░██████████████ █████████████████▄ ░██████████████▀ ████████████ ███████████████░██ ██████████ | | CRYPTO CASINO & SPORTS BETTING | | │ | | │ | ▄▄███████▄▄ ▄███████████████▄ ███████████████████ █████████████████████ ███████████████████████ █████████████████████████ █████████████████████████ █████████████████████████ ███████████████████████ █████████████████████ ███████████████████ ▀███████████████▀ ███████████████████ | | .
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VolanicEruptor (OP)
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December 14, 2013, 03:07:16 AM |
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You are implying this with continued price increase despite the system being unsustainable.
no, I never implied this. You made the assumption yourself. The timeline is not black and white. It is a long, gradual process in which our resources are used up at an exponentially rapid rate. No big concepts to grab, pretty simple.. YES YOU DID.
people won't stop mining though if the bitcoin price keeps going up.
if we see a $100,000 bitcoin, we're in big trouble with everybody raping energy resources to mine
Why would the price keep going up, if the system is unstainable. You are implying that market participants BUY DESPITE THE SYTEM BEING UNSUSTAINABLE. Thus they must be STUPID. You are implying that market participants ARE MORONS. I would never imply that the market participants are morons. Not at all. We all want a piece of this wonderful boom. The system does not "appear completely sustainable" one day, and not the next it is rather a long and drawn out process. You just need to think outside the box a little. Now you saying that a unsustainable system BOOMS is absurd. Me no understand ur english. Come again? This is not absurd, it is just simple acknowledgement that difficulty is going up faster than our resources can handle it. The bolded part is you stating that Bitcoin is not SCALABLE. You STATING THAT A SYSTEM THAT IS NOT SCALABLE WILL CONTINUE TO SCALE IS ABSURD. MARKET PARTICIPANTS WOULD FIGURE OUT THAT THEY ARE RUNNING TOWARDS THE EDGE OF A CLIFF. END OF DISCUSSION. It seems that you don't have much experience with communicating on the internet. Please do not talk in capslock, it sounds like you are yelling and most people will point this out to you rather quick. It's best to just relax a little bit before you post. Yelling in capslock is also a very clear sign that you are frustrated with the fact you lost an argument. Maybe go for a walk, clear your head and come back with a clean perspective. I would suggest a warm cup of tea..
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porc
Member
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Activity: 98
Merit: 10
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December 14, 2013, 03:09:25 AM |
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You are implying this with continued price increase despite the system being unsustainable.
no, I never implied this. You made the assumption yourself. The timeline is not black and white. It is a long, gradual process in which our resources are used up at an exponentially rapid rate. No big concepts to grab, pretty simple.. YES YOU DID.
people won't stop mining though if the bitcoin price keeps going up.
if we see a $100,000 bitcoin, we're in big trouble with everybody raping energy resources to mine
Why would the price keep going up, if the system is unstainable. You are implying that market participants BUY DESPITE THE SYTEM BEING UNSUSTAINABLE. Thus they must be STUPID. You are implying that market participants ARE MORONS. I would never imply that the market participants are morons. Not at all. We all want a piece of this wonderful boom. The system does not "appear completely sustainable" one day, and not the next it is rather a long and drawn out process. You just need to think outside the box a little. Now you saying that a unsustainable system BOOMS is absurd. Me no understand ur english. Come again? This is not absurd, it is just simple acknowledgement that difficulty is going up faster than our resources can handle it. The bolded part is you stating that Bitcoin is not SCALABLE. You STATING THAT A SYSTEM THAT IS NOT SCALABLE WILL CONTINUE TO SCALE IS ABSURD. MARKET PARTICIPANTS WOULD FIGURE OUT THAT THEY ARE RUNNING TOWARDS THE EDGE OF A CLIFF. END OF DISCUSSION. It seems that you don't have much experience with communicating on the internet. Please do not talk in capslock, it sounds like you are yelling and most people will point this out to you rather quick. It's best to just relax a little bit before you post. Yelling in capslock is also a very clear sign that you are frustrated with the fact you lost an argument. Maybe go for a walk, clear your head and come back with a clean perspective. I would suggest a warm cup of tea.. Another filibuster. You are a troll. Your assumptions are absurd and you have not addressed my point. Bye.
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stompix
Legendary
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Activity: 2884
Merit: 6313
Blackjack.fun
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December 14, 2013, 03:09:29 AM |
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It seems that you don't have much experience with communicating on the internet. Please do not talk in capslock, it sounds like you are yelling and most people will point this out to you rather quick. It's best to just relax a little bit before you post. Yelling in capslock is also a very clear sign that you are frustrated with the fact you lost an argument. Maybe go for a walk, clear your head and come back with a clean perspective. I would suggest a warm cup of tea..
Every sane person that would have tried to argue with you would have ended up yelling since you keep saying the same stuff and you don't even look like listening to arguments.
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. .BLACKJACK ♠ FUN. | | | ███▄██████ ██████████████▀ ████████████ █████████████████ ████████████████▄▄ ░█████████████▀░▀▀ ██████████████████ ░██████████████ █████████████████▄ ░██████████████▀ ████████████ ███████████████░██ ██████████ | | CRYPTO CASINO & SPORTS BETTING | | │ | | │ | ▄▄███████▄▄ ▄███████████████▄ ███████████████████ █████████████████████ ███████████████████████ █████████████████████████ █████████████████████████ █████████████████████████ ███████████████████████ █████████████████████ ███████████████████ ▀███████████████▀ ███████████████████ | | .
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empoweoqwj
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December 14, 2013, 03:10:36 AM |
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You are implying this with continued price increase despite the system being unsustainable.
no, I never implied this. You made the assumption yourself. The timeline is not black and white. It is a long, gradual process in which our resources are used up at an exponentially rapid rate. No big concepts to grab, pretty simple.. YES YOU DID.
people won't stop mining though if the bitcoin price keeps going up.
if we see a $100,000 bitcoin, we're in big trouble with everybody raping energy resources to mine
Why would the price keep going up, if the system is unstainable. You are implying that market participants BUY DESPITE THE SYTEM BEING UNSUSTAINABLE. Thus they must be STUPID. You are implying that market participants ARE MORONS. I would never imply that the market participants are morons. Not at all. We all want a piece of this wonderful boom. The system does not "appear completely sustainable" one day, and not the next it is rather a long and drawn out process. You just need to think outside the box a little. Now you saying that a unsustainable system BOOMS is absurd. Me no understand ur english. Come again? This is not absurd, it is just simple acknowledgement that difficulty is going up faster than our resources can handle it. The bolded part is you stating that Bitcoin is not SCALABLE. You STATING THAT A SYSTEM THAT IS NOT SCALABLE WILL CONTINUE TO SCALE IS ABSURD. MARKET PARTICIPANTS WOULD FIGURE OUT THAT THEY ARE RUNNING TOWARDS THE EDGE OF A CLIFF. END OF DISCUSSION. It seems that you don't have much experience with communicating on the internet. Please do not talk in capslock, it sounds like you are yelling and most people will point this out to you rather quick. It's best to just relax a little bit before you post. Yelling in capslock is also a very clear sign that you are frustrated with the fact you lost an argument. Maybe go for a walk, clear your head and come back with a clean perspective. I would suggest a warm cup of tea.. Another filibuster. You are a troll. Your assumptions are absurd and you have not addressed my point. Bye. Porc calling someone a troll. Classic )))))))))))
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VolanicEruptor (OP)
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December 14, 2013, 03:11:20 AM |
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You are implying this with continued price increase despite the system being unsustainable.
no, I never implied this. You made the assumption yourself. The timeline is not black and white. It is a long, gradual process in which our resources are used up at an exponentially rapid rate. No big concepts to grab, pretty simple.. YES YOU DID.
people won't stop mining though if the bitcoin price keeps going up.
if we see a $100,000 bitcoin, we're in big trouble with everybody raping energy resources to mine
Why would the price keep going up, if the system is unstainable. You are implying that market participants BUY DESPITE THE SYTEM BEING UNSUSTAINABLE. Thus they must be STUPID. You are implying that market participants ARE MORONS. I would never imply that the market participants are morons. Not at all. We all want a piece of this wonderful boom. The system does not "appear completely sustainable" one day, and not the next it is rather a long and drawn out process. You just need to think outside the box a little. Now you saying that a unsustainable system BOOMS is absurd. Me no understand ur english. Come again? This is not absurd, it is just simple acknowledgement that difficulty is going up faster than our resources can handle it. The bolded part is you stating that Bitcoin is not SCALABLE. You STATING THAT A SYSTEM THAT IS NOT SCALABLE WILL CONTINUE TO SCALE IS ABSURD. MARKET PARTICIPANTS WOULD FIGURE OUT THAT THEY ARE RUNNING TOWARDS THE EDGE OF A CLIFF. END OF DISCUSSION. It seems that you don't have much experience with communicating on the internet. Please do not talk in capslock, it sounds like you are yelling and most people will point this out to you rather quick. It's best to just relax a little bit before you post. Yelling in capslock is also a very clear sign that you are frustrated with the fact you lost an argument. Maybe go for a walk, clear your head and come back with a clean perspective. I would suggest a warm cup of tea.. Another filibuster. You are a troll. Your assumptions are absurd and you have not addressed my point. Bye. I addressed your point with my point, please go back and read the posts
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VolanicEruptor (OP)
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December 14, 2013, 03:12:32 AM |
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I hope porc gets to sleep tonight. It must feel terrible to be so wrong about something
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empoweoqwj
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December 14, 2013, 03:15:18 AM |
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I hope porc gets to sleep tonight. It must feel terrible to be so wrong about something He's having that cup of tea you suggested. I fear he'll be back .... he's like a troll with a hobbit unfortunately.
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pand70
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December 14, 2013, 03:55:50 AM |
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If difficulty keeps doubling for the next 14 months i think the price will be through the roof. So we are not exactly fucked it will be very nice for people who own bitcoin, yes but there is a whole world outside of bitcoin I 'm not sure what you mean exactly. After all it's not like miners will to take away electricity from the rest of the world just to power their machines
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empoweoqwj
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December 14, 2013, 04:04:24 AM |
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If difficulty keeps doubling for the next 14 months i think the price will be through the roof. So we are not exactly fucked it will be very nice for people who own bitcoin, yes but there is a whole world outside of bitcoin I 'm not sure what you mean exactly. After all it's not like miners will to take away electricity from the rest of the world just to power their machines Ummm ..... electricity is a finite resource unfortunately, and a very expensive one. Countries / cities do go through stages where they have power outages because supply can't meet demand. Will be interesting in the future if bitcoin miners really do start taking up a significant % of any countries / cities supply whether they will be any fallout. Sounds unlikely but those bitcoin farms are getting pretty industrial now.
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stompix
Legendary
Offline
Activity: 2884
Merit: 6313
Blackjack.fun
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December 14, 2013, 04:16:08 AM |
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If difficulty keeps doubling for the next 14 months i think the price will be through the roof. So we are not exactly fucked it will be very nice for people who own bitcoin, yes but there is a whole world outside of bitcoin I 'm not sure what you mean exactly. After all it's not like miners will to take away electricity from the rest of the world just to power their machines Ummm ..... electricity is a finite resource unfortunately, and a very expensive one. Countries / cities do go through stages where they have power outages because supply can't meet demand. Will be interesting in the future if bitcoin miners really do start taking up a significant % of any countries / cities supply whether they will be any fallout. Sounds unlikely but those bitcoin farms are getting pretty industrial now. But since we will shut down all banks , the energy consumption will go down a little , right )) ?
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. .BLACKJACK ♠ FUN. | | | ███▄██████ ██████████████▀ ████████████ █████████████████ ████████████████▄▄ ░█████████████▀░▀▀ ██████████████████ ░██████████████ █████████████████▄ ░██████████████▀ ████████████ ███████████████░██ ██████████ | | CRYPTO CASINO & SPORTS BETTING | | │ | | │ | ▄▄███████▄▄ ▄███████████████▄ ███████████████████ █████████████████████ ███████████████████████ █████████████████████████ █████████████████████████ █████████████████████████ ███████████████████████ █████████████████████ ███████████████████ ▀███████████████▀ ███████████████████ | | .
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bitcon
Legendary
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Activity: 2212
Merit: 1008
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December 14, 2013, 04:18:52 AM |
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remind me to bump this thread in 5 years.
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HeRetiK
Legendary
Online
Activity: 2926
Merit: 2091
Cashback 15%
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December 14, 2013, 09:52:51 AM |
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New york city used 5GW of electricity in 2001 With bitcoin mining, lets assume 1W/GH of power is required, per hour. That means 8000KW is required for 8000TH/S network hash rate, per hour. Now lets assume difficulty doubles every month, as it has been. 8000KW (present) 16000KW (in 2 months) 32000KW (in 3 months) 64000KW (in 4 months) 128000KW (in 5 months) 256000KW (in 6 months) 512000KW (in 7 months) 1GW (in 8 months) 2GW (in 9 months) 4GW (in 10 months) 8GW (in 11 months) 16GW (in 12 months) 32GW (in 13 months) 64GW (in 14 months) So in 14 months, we would see more power consumption than New york city ANNUALLY in a single hour of bitcoin mining Obviously the wattage will become more efficient as we build better miners, but there is no way it can keep up. You would have to see a 2x efficiency improvement every month... and we have not seen that. But even if you slow down my numbers to account for that, it would still happen in less than a decade. Eventually the entire world will double its power consumption because of Bitcoin.. and then triple it... I am pretty confident we are FUCKED, gentlemen. Luckily your numbers seem to be off though. In 2007 New York used 65,591GWh of electricity. http://observer.com/2008/04/new-york-city-reaches-for-the-sun-but-for-now-were-not-even-close/For the sake of simplicity, let's assume the Bitcoin network is currently running at 1W/GH/s @ 8,000,000 GH/s. So per hour the Bitcoin network uses 8,000kWh * 24 * 365 = 70,080GWh of electricity per year. That's a bit more than New York in 2007, but less than 0.4% of the global electricity consumption of the whole world in 2002. Not accounting for variation, this would make miners responsible for 0.4% of electricity used in their respective country, based on numbers from 2002 (it's fairly safe to assume that global energy consumption has grown since then). (19,320,360 GWh per year according to Wikipedia) http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_countries_by_electricity_consumptionOf course the argument still stands that the higher the BTC price, the higher the electricity consumption of the Bitcoin network because miners are able to spent more money on electricity and still make a profit. So if we would reach 100,000 USD / BTC at the current coin release rate we'd probably be fucked. However I don't see this anytime soon and due to regular block halving, higher prices become more and more sustainable without miners pumping more and more electricity into the network. Also, at 100,000 USD most Bitcoiners or long time miners would probably be able to built their own solar plants, thus fostering the renewable energy sector and making the world a better place once more
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. .HUGE. | | | | | | █▀▀▀▀ █ █ █ █ █ █ █ █ █ █ █ █▄▄▄▄ | ▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀ . CASINO & SPORTSBOOK ▄▄▄▄▄▄▄▄▄▄▄▄▄▄▄▄▄▄▄▄▄▄▄▄▄▄▄▄▄▄▄▄▄▄▄▄▄▄▄▄▄▄▄▄▄▄▄▄▄▄▄▄▄▄▄▄▄▄▄▄▄▄▄▄▄▄▄▄▄▄▄▄▄▄▄▄▄▄▄▄▄▄▄▄▄▄▄▄▄▄▄▄▄▄▄▄▄▄▄▄▄▄▄▄▄▄▄▄▄▄▄▄▄▄▄▄▄▄▄▄▄▄▄▄▄▄▄▄▄▄▄▄▄▄▄▄▄▄▄▄▄▄▄▄▄▄▄▄▄▄▄▄▄▄▄▄▄▄ | ▀▀▀▀█ █ █ █ █ █ █ █ █ █ █ █ ▄▄▄▄█ | | |
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zimmah
Legendary
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Activity: 1106
Merit: 1005
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December 14, 2013, 12:13:45 PM |
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It's a simple demand/supply quiz. If electricity usage goes up, so does the price. Then miners will have the incentives to find cheaper sources, like solar power. That will boost the development in the southern countries. Everyone wins!
Solar power isn't cheap. You need the space and the materials to build it. Okay, so we determine we only need the entire Nevada desert to supply the mining requirements with solar power.. but what about the month after? We will need twice the room And the month after that, we'll need 4 times the room.. See what I'm saying? It's the doubling that fucks us eventually the entire sun will not be able to keep up with the mining growth Isn't there like a big useless desert in North Africa? The Sahara? Just fill it with solar panels completely.
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zimmah
Legendary
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Activity: 1106
Merit: 1005
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December 14, 2013, 12:17:18 PM |
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8000KW (present) 16000KW (in 2 months) 32000KW (in 3 months) 64000KW (in 4 months) 128000KW (in 5 months) 256000KW (in 6 months) 512000KW (in 7 months) 1GW (in 8 months) 2GW (in 9 months) 4GW (in 10 months) 8GW (in 11 months) 16GW (in 12 months) 32GW (in 13 months) 64GW (in 14 months)
So , let;s assume we have 8000TH , that's 4000 Cointerras 8000KW (present) need to add another 4000 16000KW (in 2 months) 8000 32000KW (in 3 months) 16000 64000KW (in 4 months) 32000 128000KW (in 5 months) 64000 256000KW (in 6 months) 128000 512000KW (in 7 months) 256000 1GW (in 8 months) 512000 2GW (in 9 months) 1024000 4GW (in 10 months) 2M 8GW (in 11 months) 4M 16GW (in 12 months) 8M 32GW (in 13 months) 16M 64GW (in 14 months) 32M So , in one month we'll have to produce 32 millions cointerra miners or equivalent. I see a problem here. Cause that's the amount of Iphones Apple sells in 4 months. Exactly this is the reason why I believe the difficulty will stop growing exponentially for a while, because the amount of ASICs they'd need to sell for the difficulty to rise that much is unrealisticly high.
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VolanicEruptor (OP)
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December 14, 2013, 12:28:46 PM |
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It's a simple demand/supply quiz. If electricity usage goes up, so does the price. Then miners will have the incentives to find cheaper sources, like solar power. That will boost the development in the southern countries. Everyone wins!
Solar power isn't cheap. You need the space and the materials to build it. Okay, so we determine we only need the entire Nevada desert to supply the mining requirements with solar power.. but what about the month after? We will need twice the room And the month after that, we'll need 4 times the room.. See what I'm saying? It's the doubling that fucks us eventually the entire sun will not be able to keep up with the mining growth Isn't there like a big useless desert in North Africa? The Sahara? Just fill it with solar panels completely. but what will you do the month after?
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pand70
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December 14, 2013, 12:29:59 PM |
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Isn't there like a big useless desert in North Africa? The Sahara? Just fill it with solar panels completely.
I don't think that the desert is the best place for solar panels. I mean the environment there is very hostile and the landscape changes constantly.
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Ibian
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Activity: 2268
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December 14, 2013, 12:57:12 PM |
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5 pages? Really?
The word is equilibrium.
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Look inside yourself, and you will see that you are the bubble.
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VolanicEruptor (OP)
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December 14, 2013, 01:17:53 PM |
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5 pages? Really?
The word is equilibrium.
if equilibrium applied to us that would be great unfortunately humans are the biggest shit disturbers the world has ever seen. We destroy balance..
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empoweoqwj
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December 15, 2013, 02:50:38 AM |
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5 pages? Really?
The word is equilibrium.
if equilibrium applied to us that would be great unfortunately humans are the biggest shit disturbers the world has ever seen. We destroy balance.. Yeah, humans don't do equilibrium. Nature attempts to do it for us but has a very hard job.
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