The Bitcoin Armageddon

[VolanicEruptor]

8000KW (present)
16000KW (in 2 months)
32000KW (in 3 months)
64000KW (in 4 months)
128000KW (in 5 months)
256000KW (in 6 months)
512000KW (in 7 months)
1GW (in 8 months)
2GW (in 9 months)
4GW (in 10 months)
8GW (in 11 months)
16GW (in 12 months)
32GW (in 13 months)
64GW (in 14 months)

So , let;s assume we have 8000TH , that's 4000 Cointerras

8000KW (present)           need to add another 4000
16000KW (in 2 months)    8000
32000KW (in 3 months)    16000
64000KW (in 4 months)    32000
128000KW (in 5 months)   64000
256000KW (in 6 months)   128000
512000KW (in 7 months)   256000
1GW (in 8 months)        512000
2GW (in 9 months)       1024000
4GW (in 10 months)      2M
8GW (in 11 months)      4M
16GW (in 12 months)     8M
32GW (in 13 months)     16M
64GW (in 14 months)     32M

So , in one month we'll have to produce 32 millions cointerra miners or equivalent.
I see a problem here. Cause that's the amount of Iphones Apple sells in 4 months.

yes obviously it's not possible to double forever.. eventually we will either run out of energy or material.  Either way it's not good..

[stompix]

8000KW (present)
16000KW (in 2 months)
32000KW (in 3 months)
64000KW (in 4 months)
128000KW (in 5 months)
256000KW (in 6 months)
512000KW (in 7 months)
1GW (in 8 months)
2GW (in 9 months)
4GW (in 10 months)
8GW (in 11 months)
16GW (in 12 months)
32GW (in 13 months)
64GW (in 14 months)

So , let;s assume we have 8000TH , that's 4000 Cointerras

8000KW (present)           need to add another 4000
16000KW (in 2 months)    8000
32000KW (in 3 months)    16000
64000KW (in 4 months)    32000
128000KW (in 5 months)   64000
256000KW (in 6 months)   128000
512000KW (in 7 months)   256000
1GW (in 8 months)        512000
2GW (in 9 months)       1024000
4GW (in 10 months)      2M
8GW (in 11 months)      4M
16GW (in 12 months)     8M
32GW (in 13 months)     16M
64GW (in 14 months)     32M

So , in one month we'll have to produce 32 millions cointerra miners or equivalent.
I see a problem here. Cause that's the amount of Iphones Apple sells in 4 months.

yes obviously it's not possible to double forever.. eventually we will either run out of energy or material.  Either way it's not good..

I'm a bit tired but let's give it a try:
8000 kw should be 19 000 usd.  nice cost /block reward
8MW/20000 USD , that would lead to  64GW 160 millions cost/ day. Well , just to cover the cost 1 bitcoin should be worth 50 000. And this if forgetting about the cost of equipment.
And the halving in the next years.

I don't see a problem with electricity cost at all.

Again , maybe I made a mistake with the cost but still...

[hmmkay]

Die-shrink of chips also brings better power efficiency. So it won't be doubled constantly.

[VolanicEruptor]

8000KW (present)
16000KW (in 2 months)
32000KW (in 3 months)
64000KW (in 4 months)
128000KW (in 5 months)
256000KW (in 6 months)
512000KW (in 7 months)
1GW (in 8 months)
2GW (in 9 months)
4GW (in 10 months)
8GW (in 11 months)
16GW (in 12 months)
32GW (in 13 months)
64GW (in 14 months)

So , let;s assume we have 8000TH , that's 4000 Cointerras

8000KW (present)           need to add another 4000
16000KW (in 2 months)    8000
32000KW (in 3 months)    16000
64000KW (in 4 months)    32000
128000KW (in 5 months)   64000
256000KW (in 6 months)   128000
512000KW (in 7 months)   256000
1GW (in 8 months)        512000
2GW (in 9 months)       1024000
4GW (in 10 months)      2M
8GW (in 11 months)      4M
16GW (in 12 months)     8M
32GW (in 13 months)     16M
64GW (in 14 months)     32M

So , in one month we'll have to produce 32 millions cointerra miners or equivalent.
I see a problem here. Cause that's the amount of Iphones Apple sells in 4 months.

yes obviously it's not possible to double forever.. eventually we will either run out of energy or material.  Either way it's not good..

I'm a bit tired but let's give it a try:
8000 kw should be 19 000 usd.  nice cost /block reward
8MW/20000 USD , that would lead to  64GW 160 millions cost/ day. Well , just to cover the cost 1 bitcoin should be worth 50 000. And this if forgetting about the cost of equipment.
And the halving in the next years.

I don't see a problem with electricity cost at all.

Again , maybe I made a mistake with the cost but still...

64GW/hour.. not day..
and even if there is no problem, what about when its 128GW, then 256GW, then 512GW??
don't stop there..

[VolanicEruptor]

Die-shrink of chips also brings better power efficiency. So it won't be doubled constantly.

So if we increase the power efficiency by 8x, then that delays this scenerio by 4 months..
like i said, our efficiency has not been keeping up with the growth

[pontiacg5]

Assuming the ridiculous assumption that it were possible for difficulty to keep climbing like it is, eventually the power companies would have to charge more for power. They'd be able to justify the increase with expenses for added capacity.

Maybe bitcoin will force the upgrade our US electrical grid apparently needs.


 

[stompix]

8000KW (present)
16000KW (in 2 months)
32000KW (in 3 months)
64000KW (in 4 months)
128000KW (in 5 months)
256000KW (in 6 months)
512000KW (in 7 months)
1GW (in 8 months)
2GW (in 9 months)
4GW (in 10 months)
8GW (in 11 months)
16GW (in 12 months)
32GW (in 13 months)
64GW (in 14 months)

So , let;s assume we have 8000TH , that's 4000 Cointerras

8000KW (present)           need to add another 4000
16000KW (in 2 months)    8000
32000KW (in 3 months)    16000
64000KW (in 4 months)    32000
128000KW (in 5 months)   64000
256000KW (in 6 months)   128000
512000KW (in 7 months)   256000
1GW (in 8 months)        512000
2GW (in 9 months)       1024000
4GW (in 10 months)      2M
8GW (in 11 months)      4M
16GW (in 12 months)     8M
32GW (in 13 months)     16M
64GW (in 14 months)     32M

So , in one month we'll have to produce 32 millions cointerra miners or equivalent.
I see a problem here. Cause that's the amount of Iphones Apple sells in 4 months.

yes obviously it's not possible to double forever.. eventually we will either run out of energy or material.  Either way it's not good..

I'm a bit tired but let's give it a try:
8000 kw should be 19 000 usd.  nice cost /block reward
8MW/20000 USD , that would lead to  64GW 160 millions cost/ day. Well , just to cover the cost 1 bitcoin should be worth 50 000. And this if forgetting about the cost of equipment.
And the halving in the next years.

I don't see a problem with electricity cost at all.

Again , maybe I made a mistake with the cost but still...

64GW/hour.. not day..
and even if there is no problem, what about when its 128GW, then 256GW, then 512GW??
don't stop there..

Yeah , 64GW/hour will end up costing you 160millions daily.
If we have a consumption of 512GW it's gonna be 1280 millions , 1.2 billion.

Let's watch the picture in a few years , block reward halved twice. The reward is only 1000 day.  one bitcoin should be worth 1 million dollars to sustain only the electricity cost  and almost 2.5 millions to cover the expenses with the equipment.

You see now the problem with this ?

[VolanicEruptor]

bitcoin mining will become illegal in most countries because of ridiculous waste of resources and power
and this post will be part of the history books
thank you
 

[porc]

bitcoin mining will become illegal in most countries because of ridiculous waste of resources and power
and this post will be part of the history books
thank you
 

So let me get this right:

If more people mine bitcoins difficulty increases and thus energy consumption.

If energy consumption increases due to more people mining without a price increase, people will stop mining.

Thus, you are assuming that the price continues to go up to justify this energy consumption, which it wont.

[stompix]

bitcoin mining will become illegal in most countries because of ridiculous waste of resources and power
and this post will be part of the history books
thank you
 

.. in the section , worst predictions ever?
http://shareranks.com/499,The-Worst-Predictions-Ever
Pick your place

[VolanicEruptor]

bitcoin mining will become illegal in most countries because of ridiculous waste of resources and power
and this post will be part of the history books
thank you
 

So let me get this right:

If you more people mine bitcoins difficulty increases and thus energy consumption.

If energy consumption increases due to more people mining without a price increase, people will stop mining.

Thus, you are assuming that the price continues to go up to justify this energy consumption, which it wont.

people won't stop mining though if the bitcoin price keeps going up.

if we see a $100,000 bitcoin, we're in big trouble with everybody raping energy resources to mine

[arkintunde]

So , in one month we'll have to produce 32 millions cointerra miners or equivalent.
I see a problem here. Cause that's the amount of Iphones Apple sells in 4 months.

Lol, good point. This will not be happening.

[porc]

bitcoin mining will become illegal in most countries because of ridiculous waste of resources and power
and this post will be part of the history books
thank you
 

So let me get this right:

If you more people mine bitcoins difficulty increases and thus energy consumption.

If energy consumption increases due to more people mining without a price increase, people will stop mining.

Thus, you are assuming that the price continues to go up to justify this energy consumption, which it wont.

people won't stop mining though if the bitcoin price keeps going up.

if we see a $100,000 bitcoin, we're in big trouble with everybody raping energy resources to mine

So your scenario assumes, a $ 100.000 price tag. LOL.

If energy costs are unsustainable, so is Bitcoin. Thus we would never see this price.
 

[VolanicEruptor]

bitcoin mining will become illegal in most countries because of ridiculous waste of resources and power
and this post will be part of the history books
thank you
 

So let me get this right:

If you more people mine bitcoins difficulty increases and thus energy consumption.

If energy consumption increases due to more people mining without a price increase, people will stop mining.

Thus, you are assuming that the price continues to go up to justify this energy consumption, which it wont.

people won't stop mining though if the bitcoin price keeps going up.

if we see a $100,000 bitcoin, we're in big trouble with everybody raping energy resources to mine

So your scenario assumes, a $ 100.000 price tag. LOL.

If energy costs are unsustainable, so is Bitcoin. Thus we would never see this price.
 

I believe we would run out of resources before finding out that it is "unsustainable"

[EvilPanda]

bitcoin mining will become illegal in most countries because of ridiculous waste of resources and power
and this post will be part of the history books
thank you
 

.. in the section , worst predictions ever?
http://shareranks.com/499,The-Worst-Predictions-Ever
Pick your place

Few years later:
Top voted worst prediction ever by VolanicEruptor, a bitcointalk forum user, December 2013.  

[VolanicEruptor]

Give it a few years.  You'll see..

[stompix]

Give it a few years.  You'll see..

You know , since the amount of bitcoins per block , mined as a reward will be halving , time is not quite your ally.

[porc]

bitcoin mining will become illegal in most countries because of ridiculous waste of resources and power
and this post will be part of the history books
thank you
 

So let me get this right:

If you more people mine bitcoins difficulty increases and thus energy consumption.

If energy consumption increases due to more people mining without a price increase, people will stop mining.

Thus, you are assuming that the price continues to go up to justify this energy consumption, which it wont.

people won't stop mining though if the bitcoin price keeps going up.

if we see a $100,000 bitcoin, we're in big trouble with everybody raping energy resources to mine

So your scenario assumes, a $ 100.000 price tag. LOL.

If energy costs are unsustainable, so is Bitcoin. Thus we would never see this price.
 

I believe we would run out of resources before finding out that it is "unsustainable"

LOL. If your energy cost assumptions are correct, bitcoins price will collapse, as market participants will realize that the system is unsustainable.

Its absurd to imply, that you are the only one who would figure this out.

[VolanicEruptor]

what do you call a collapse though?  from $100,000 down to $10,000?   

[pontiacg5]

what do you call a collapse though?  from $100,000 down to $10,000?   

Where did $10,000 come from, or $100,000 for that matter? You do realize there is no guarantee bitcoin is to continue increasing in value, right? Likewise there is no reason bitcoin can't be successful without being $100,000?