The Bitcoin Armageddon

[porc]

what do you call a collapse though?  from $100,000 down to $10,000?   

If you are correct, and Bitcoin is not scale-able due to exploding energy costs, cryptocurrency fans will move to a new coin. Bitcoin would collapse to 0, if you are correct.

 

[empoweoqwj]

New york city used 5GW of electricity in 2001

With bitcoin mining, lets assume 1W/GH of power is required, per hour.

That means 8000KW is required for 8000TH/S network hash rate, per hour.

Now lets assume difficulty doubles every month, as it has been.

8000KW (present)
16000KW (in 2 months)
32000KW (in 3 months)
64000KW (in 4 months)
128000KW (in 5 months)
256000KW (in 6 months)
512000KW (in 7 months)
1GW (in 8 months)
2GW (in 9 months)
4GW (in 10 months)
8GW (in 11 months)
16GW (in 12 months)
32GW (in 13 months)
64GW (in 14 months)

So in 14 months, we would see more power consumption than New york city ANNUALLY in a single hour of bitcoin mining

Obviously the wattage will become more efficient as we build better miners, but there is no way it can keep up.  You would have to see a 2x efficiency improvement every month... and we have not seen that.  But even if you slow down my numbers to account for that, it would still happen in less than a decade.

Eventually the entire world will double its power consumption because of Bitcoin.. and then triple it...

 I am pretty confident we are FUCKED, gentlemen.  

 

If electricity becomes too expensive to mine, people will stop mining, and the network hash rate will stabilize or drop. People won't mine to lose money ..... oops, my bad, most do that already 

[VolanicEruptor]

what do you call a collapse though?  from $100,000 down to $10,000?   

If you are correct, and Bitcoin is not scale-able due to exploding energy costs, cryptocurrency fans will move to a new coin. Bitcoin would collapse to 0, if you are correct.

 

You do not know how supply and demand works.

[porc]

what do you call a collapse though?  from $100,000 down to $10,000?  

If you are correct, and Bitcoin is not scale-able due to exploding energy costs, cryptocurrency fans will move to a new coin. Bitcoin would collapse to 0, if you are correct.

 

You do not know how supply and demand works.

Your assumption: 1) Bitcoin is not scale-able, due to energy costs exploding. 2) Nobody will notice and price will continue going up 3) Armageddon

Assumption 2) is off base. Market participants would notice, and price would collapse. Cryptofans would move to a sustainable coin.

 

[VolanicEruptor]

what do you call a collapse though?  from $100,000 down to $10,000?  

If you are correct, and Bitcoin is not scale-able due to exploding energy costs, cryptocurrency fans will move to a new coin. Bitcoin would collapse to 0, if you are correct.

 

You do not know how supply and demand works.

Your assumption: 1) Bitcoin is not scale-able, due to energy costs exploding. 2) Nobody will notice and price will continue going up 3) Armageddon

Assumption 2) is off base. Market participants would notice, and price would collapse. Cryptofans would move to a sustainable coin.

 

nope.  it's not just a matter of "noticing and then getting out".  That's not how long-term system failure works. 

[porc]

what do you call a collapse though?  from $100,000 down to $10,000?  

If you are correct, and Bitcoin is not scale-able due to exploding energy costs, cryptocurrency fans will move to a new coin. Bitcoin would collapse to 0, if you are correct.

 

You do not know how supply and demand works.

Your assumption: 1) Bitcoin is not scale-able, due to energy costs exploding. 2) Nobody will notice and price will continue going up 3) Armageddon

Assumption 2) is off base. Market participants would notice, and price would collapse. Cryptofans would move to a sustainable coin.

 

nope.  it's not just a matter of "noticing and then getting out".  That's not how long-term system failure works. 

So market participants dont understand exponential energy cost explosions??? Like sheep they would continue to bid the price up and run over the edge of a cliff. So you are saying you would be the only one wise enough to see, that the system is not sustainable.

Lol. Pure arrogance.

[pand70]

If difficulty keeps doubling for the next 14 months i think the price will be through the roof. So we are not exactly fucked  

[VolanicEruptor]

what do you call a collapse though?  from $100,000 down to $10,000?  

If you are correct, and Bitcoin is not scale-able due to exploding energy costs, cryptocurrency fans will move to a new coin. Bitcoin would collapse to 0, if you are correct.

 

You do not know how supply and demand works.

Your assumption: 1) Bitcoin is not scale-able, due to energy costs exploding. 2) Nobody will notice and price will continue going up 3) Armageddon

Assumption 2) is off base. Market participants would notice, and price would collapse. Cryptofans would move to a sustainable coin.

 

nope.  it's not just a matter of "noticing and then getting out".  That's not how long-term system failure works. 

So market participants dont understand exponential energy cost explosions??? Like sheep they would continue to bid the price up and run over the edge of a cliff. So you are saying you would be the only one wise enough to see, that the system is not sustainable.

Lol. Pure arrogance.

You made another false assumption.. i never said that

[VolanicEruptor]

If difficulty keeps doubling for the next 14 months i think the price will be through the roof. So we are not exactly fucked  

it will be very nice for people who own bitcoin, yes
but there is a whole world outside of bitcoin

[porc]

what do you call a collapse though?  from $100,000 down to $10,000?  

If you are correct, and Bitcoin is not scale-able due to exploding energy costs, cryptocurrency fans will move to a new coin. Bitcoin would collapse to 0, if you are correct.

 

You do not know how supply and demand works.

Your assumption: 1) Bitcoin is not scale-able, due to energy costs exploding. 2) Nobody will notice and price will continue going up 3) Armageddon

Assumption 2) is off base. Market participants would notice, and price would collapse. Cryptofans would move to a sustainable coin.

 

nope.  it's not just a matter of "noticing and then getting out".  That's not how long-term system failure works. 

So market participants dont understand exponential energy cost explosions??? Like sheep they would continue to bid the price up and run over the edge of a cliff. So you are saying you would be the only one wise enough to see, that the system is not sustainable.

Lol. Pure arrogance.

You made another false assumption.. i never said that

What exactly are you saying?

Your title: Bitcoin Armageddon.

How?

[VolanicEruptor]

what do you call a collapse though?  from $100,000 down to $10,000?  

If you are correct, and Bitcoin is not scale-able due to exploding energy costs, cryptocurrency fans will move to a new coin. Bitcoin would collapse to 0, if you are correct.

 

You do not know how supply and demand works.

Your assumption: 1) Bitcoin is not scale-able, due to energy costs exploding. 2) Nobody will notice and price will continue going up 3) Armageddon

Assumption 2) is off base. Market participants would notice, and price would collapse. Cryptofans would move to a sustainable coin.

 

nope.  it's not just a matter of "noticing and then getting out".  That's not how long-term system failure works. 

So market participants dont understand exponential energy cost explosions??? Like sheep they would continue to bid the price up and run over the edge of a cliff. So you are saying you would be the only one wise enough to see, that the system is not sustainable.

Lol. Pure arrogance.

You made another false assumption.. i never said that

What exactly are you saying?

Your title: Bitcoin Armageddon.

How?

Read the first post. 

[porc]

what do you call a collapse though?  from $100,000 down to $10,000?  

If you are correct, and Bitcoin is not scale-able due to exploding energy costs, cryptocurrency fans will move to a new coin. Bitcoin would collapse to 0, if you are correct.

 

You do not know how supply and demand works.

Your assumption: 1) Bitcoin is not scale-able, due to energy costs exploding. 2) Nobody will notice and price will continue going up 3) Armageddon

Assumption 2) is off base. Market participants would notice, and price would collapse. Cryptofans would move to a sustainable coin.

 

nope.  it's not just a matter of "noticing and then getting out".  That's not how long-term system failure works.  

So market participants dont understand exponential energy cost explosions??? Like sheep they would continue to bid the price up and run over the edge of a cliff. So you are saying you would be the only one wise enough to see, that the system is not sustainable.

Lol. Pure arrogance.

You made another false assumption.. i never said that

What exactly are you saying?

Your title: Bitcoin Armageddon.

How?

Read the first post.  

LOL. You are filibustering.

1)

yes obviously it's not possible to double forever.. eventually we will either run out of energy or material.  Either way it's not good..
 

2) + 3)

people won't stop mining though if the bitcoin price keeps going up.

if we see a $100,000 bitcoin, we're in big trouble with everybody raping energy resources to mine

Your assumptions: 1) Energy consumption is unsustainable 2) Despite this being the case, people will continue to bid the price up. 3) Armageddon.

What assumption am I misrepresenting?

[VolanicEruptor]

this assumption: "So market participants dont understand exponential energy cost explosions??? Like sheep they would continue to bid the price up and run over the edge of a cliff. So you are saying you would be the only one wise enough to see, that the system is not sustainable."

it's just wrong because I never said that

[porc]

this assumption: "So market participants dont understand exponential energy cost explosions??? Like sheep they would continue to bid the price up and run over the edge of a cliff. So you are saying you would be the only one wise enough to see, that the system is not sustainable."

it's just wrong because I never said that

You are implying this with continued price increase despite the system being unsustainable:

people won't stop mining though if the bitcoin price keeps going up.

if we see a $100,000 bitcoin, we're in big trouble with everybody raping energy resources to mine

[VolanicEruptor]

You are implying this with continued price increase despite the system being unsustainable.

no, I never implied this.  You made the assumption yourself.  The timeline is not black and white.  It is a long, gradual process in which our resources are used up at an exponentially rapid rate.  No big concepts to grab, pretty simple..

[empoweoqwj]

when's the last coin being mined? Think of all the energy surplus then .... 

[stompix]

this assumption: "So market participants dont understand exponential energy cost explosions??? Like sheep they would continue to bid the price up and run over the edge of a cliff. So you are saying you would be the only one wise enough to see, that the system is not sustainable."

it's just wrong because I never said that

You are implying this with continued price increase despite the system being unsustainable:

people won't stop mining though if the bitcoin price keeps going up.

if we see a $100,000 bitcoin, we're in big trouble with everybody raping energy resources to mine

At least , he still has some energy left to troll around.
I wouldn't bother with him anymore.

[stompix]

when's the last coin being mined? Think of all the energy surplus then .... 

The all the plants will close down , lots of jobs lost , factories producing equipment closed down , BTC collapses , and we end up wondering , why the hell did we spend 100 years doing puzzles ? =))))))))))))

[porc]

You are implying this with continued price increase despite the system being unsustainable.

no, I never implied this.  You made the assumption yourself.  The timeline is not black and white.  It is a long, gradual process in which our resources are used up at an exponentially rapid rate.  No big concepts to grab, pretty simple..

YES YOU DID.

people won't stop mining though if the bitcoin price keeps going up.

if we see a $100,000 bitcoin, we're in big trouble with everybody raping energy resources to mine

Why would the price keep going up, if the system is unstainable.

You are implying that market participants BUY DESPITE THE SYTEM BEING UNSUSTAINABLE.

Thus they must be STUPID.

You are implying that market participants ARE MORONS.

[empoweoqwj]

when's the last coin being mined? Think of all the energy surplus then .... 

The all the plants will close down , lots of jobs lost , factories producing equipment closed down , BTC collapses , and we end up wondering , why the hell did we spend 100 years doing puzzles ? =))))))))))))

But by that time there will around 5 million altcoins that need feeding ..... now even I'm getting scared. I'd rather have power to my computer and TV than have it all sent to mining farms.