most possible reason for china "ban"

[btoth]

There has been some news about china approaching a stock market crash (or all time low) the last fews days (link below). Maybe the Chinese learnt from Cyprus and others and don't want their people putting their money and trust now in BTC (which is hard to be taxed and lucrative market of course) rather back in their own economy.

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2013-12-16/china-stock-futures-rise-after-end-of-economic-policy-conference.html

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[safeminer]

so if you are one of the few chinese ppl that are actually holding their bitcoin, you will be rich after the crash

[T.Stuart]

Yep. The Chinese government wants it phased out of existence quickly.

[rebuilder]

It's funny how Cypriots boosting Bitcoin is now a thing, even though the rally at the time was already well underway when the Cyprus haircut was announced, and there's no evidence I know of that much Cypriot money has flowed into BTC.

[traderCJ]

Yep. The Chinese government wants it phased out of existence quickly.

Very possible.  In the end, it's the Chinese plebs who will suffer most.  In any event, the future of BTC doesn't rest in the hands of the Chinese.  If they can't/won't partake in this technology, it's their loss.

[emanymton]

It's funny how Cypriots boosting Bitcoin is now a thing, even though the rally at the time was already well underway when the Cyprus haircut was announced, and there's no evidence I know of that much Cypriot money has flowed into BTC.

I felt the same way at the time...

[thezerg]

It's funny how Cypriots boosting Bitcoin is now a thing, even though the rally at the time was already well underway when the Cyprus haircut was announced, and there's no evidence I know of that much Cypriot money has flowed into BTC.

I felt the same way at the time...

Same thing this time around.  China news did not get us from 60 to 160, and there was certainly evidence that other buyers drove much of the rise to 1200

[ElectricMucus]

That thread title should say "reason" for the ban.

[tvbcof]

Yep. The Chinese government wants it phased out of existence quickly.

The biggest danger in my mind is that the desire resonates with the governments of a lot of other larger nations simultaneously.  It seems entirely plausible to me that in such a scenerio, otherwise adversarial parties could find some common ground and form cooperative strategies.  Certainly the corporate and quasi-corporate bodies who implement policy in the respective states could be brought on-board in the snap of a finger.  What that would do to the Bitcoin economy and market is anyone's guess.  I could actually see it going several ways depending on the circumstances.

Actually for at least two years now I believe, I've felt that such a scenario (cooperative corp/gov attack) could be Bitcoin's biggest hope since it could be a powerful force in helping solve both the scaling issues, and the Achilles heal of mining and other forms of centralization.  If this happens before the transaction rate (block size) can be unleashed, it would give me new hope.

I've also long felt that Bitcoin will only really take off when there is a genuine need for the solutions (i.e., a more widespread Cyprus-like event.)  I've been surprise (and delighted) to see the recent blip above $1000.

[byronbb]

Realistically we want governments to oppose bitcoin believe it or not. Then we can have a nice contest over which is better, fiat or bitcoin.

[emanymton]

Realistically we want governments to oppose bitcoin believe it or not. Then we can have a nice contest over which is better, fiat or bitcoin.

I think major opposition in the US would severely inhibit btc's adoption.
The benefits will be much more apparent if it's allowed to do it's honey badgering unimpeded IMO.

[Wilhelm]

Realistically we want governments to oppose bitcoin believe it or not. Then we can have a nice contest over which is better, fiat or bitcoin.

No we don't, if they oppose it hard enough they will forbid it and we will turn into chinese panic sellers.
The fact that one is better than the other is a non-argument. Since when are governments rational when it comes to money.

China has the added censorship which can take down bitcoin like a porn-blocker at your company. Other countries lack this technology

[rupy]

No they can't block bitcoin as a concept, you can just mail a private key on paper.

Nothing the governments do now matters, it's game over, they can't even afford the energy to wage war against each other.

It's not the rise of bitcoins, it's the fall of fiat regimes.

[lindatess]

It's funny how Cypriots boosting Bitcoin is now a thing, even though the rally at the time was already well underway when the Cyprus haircut was announced, and there's no evidence I know of that much Cypriot money has flowed into BTC.

I agree with this. There are some articles that state that most of the money came from the United States pump but it is unclear about whether this is true or not. People speculate on all sorts of news events.

[btoth]

No they can't block bitcoin as a concept, you can just mail a private key on paper.

Nothing the governments do now matters, it's game over, they can't even afford the energy to wage war against each other.

It's not the rise of bitcoins, it's the fall of fiat regimes.

agreeable, however a system that has been in place and took centuries to build (i.e.: fiat monetary system), will not be broken down just over night. Again CASH MONEY (FIAT) is just for the most part numbers in a computer (about 90% of it actually). I'm thinking alot of governments (China for one) is seeing the potential of this NEW system and is trying to deter it from reaching the masses (they are still a "communist" state, its surprising they even allowed BTC for this long in the first place). It may not have any comparison with Cyprus (as I too believe it was only a small factor of the previous rise), but surely governments/corporations etc would rather see money flowing into their bonds/stocks/currencies etc rather than the new popular kids on the block (BTC/LTC/Crypto-coins etc).

The world elite are still for the majority baby boomers...they don't want to LEARN or TAKE CHANCES with any new systems...the current system is working just great for them, they're getting richer by the day, so why change it up. Basically the same reason why there is hundreds of alternates to oil but no one wants to make the switch..they rather put that burden on the next generations.

Hopefully with time new systems will be built to start the transition to making BTC as acceptable as today's bonds/stocks etc (similar to what second life is doing but at a greater level of course). I think 2013 most defiantly that "introduction" stage...it will only start branching out from here.

[rupy]

The only thing keeping fiat regimes alive is peoples trust.

That trust can disappear in a millisecond globally today.

When the 1% has positioned them selves for it, they will press that button, trust me; they don't have the choice.

[eldentyrell]

The biggest danger in my mind is that the desire resonates with the governments of a lot of other larger nations simultaneously.  It seems entirely plausible to me that in such a scenerio, otherwise adversarial parties could find some common ground and form cooperative strategies. 

Um, did you not notice that China, the EU, and the US all issued some sort of regulatory denunciation of bitcoin within the last nine days?

True, the US has been sending these sorts of denunciations for a while now, alternating with totally contradictory endorsements… but the sudden hostility from the EU and China within one week of each other is definitely not a coincidence.  The powerful people all know each other.

[tvbcof]

The biggest danger in my mind is that the desire resonates with the governments of a lot of other larger nations simultaneously.  It seems entirely plausible to me that in such a scenerio, otherwise adversarial parties could find some common ground and form cooperative strategies. 

Um, did you not notice that China, the EU, and the US all issued some sort of regulatory denunciation of bitcoin within the last nine days?

True, the US has been sending these sorts of denunciations for a while now, alternating with totally contradictory endorsements… but the sudden hostility from the EU and China within one week of each other is definitely not a coincidence.  The powerful people all know each other.

Looks like random noise and/or the general human performance levels within institutions (accounting for the timing observations given that the last run-up would have jolted most people similarly.)  Or at least that strikes me as a perfectly valid hypothesis, and I see no real evidence that would support the coordination idea.  Nor do I see any real effectiveness at attacking Bitcoin compared to what is possible except arguably in China.  If anything the response has been much more positive and lenient than I would have expected.

I'm still expecting a real response with some teeth.  The one thing which could avoid it is if the analysts in corp/gov decide that Bitcoin proper is on a self-destruct path anyway and a more fruitful use effort would be to try to solve the general problem of distributed crypto-currencies...if not the even more general problem of freedom of association amongst the plebs.

[Indamuck]

I'm in China, and I have a local colleague in the office with me who has been helping with some Bitcoin things. We talked about events today at length, and I'll share here:

This is what he told me he read in this morning's press:

BTC-China 'heard' that financial institutions had been asked to cease providing/receiving cash for the exchange, so BTCC called around. According to the press someone at Tenpay confirmed to BTCC that government officials had told them they are not to transmit cash to BTCC during/after Chinese New Year - I don't know the exact date but roughly around end-Jan. BTCC made similar calls to the banks but they declined to confirm or deny anything on the matter. But generally the understanding is that government officials have notifified all financial institutions not to accept/send cash to BTCC - we assume the directive is also effective for all other alt-currency exchanges.

I will also share his thoughts, from a local perspective:

The move was driven by a desire/perceived need to control capital flows. My own view is that recent terrorist events, and well as recent regulatory moves overseas, also prompted this move by China's govenment. (Some may not be aware, but recently there have been several 'terrorist' attacks by persecuted Muslim groups. That is a whole 'nother, lets not start. I can confirm, however, that security at airports has tightened noticeably.)

As to the question of 'what comes next' he's of the view that the excange(s) won't be forced to close per se, and BTC cannot/will not be made illegal. He likened it to Porn on the web. Government can ban it, and do all it can to restrict it, but anyone who makes the effort can find it. My colleague said BTC trading will continue - but in what form and manner remains to be seen. We agreed that BTCC is going to have to either find a way to allow deposits/withdrawals, or somehow restructure its business.

As for arb / money flow opportunities, Chinese can get assets/cash to HK pretty easily, so there should be a robust arb between HK and BTCC, and BTC/value may flow into the BTCC exchange in that way.

My 2.

[T.Stuart]

I'm in China, and I have a local colleague in the office with me who has been helping with some Bitcoin things. We talked about events today at length, and I'll share here:

This is what he told me he read in this morning's press:

BTC-China 'heard' that financial institutions had been asked to cease providing/receiving cash for the exchange, so BTCC called around. According to the press someone at Tenpay confirmed to BTCC that government officials had told them they are not to transmit cash to BTCC during/after Chinese New Year - I don't know the exact date but roughly around end-Jan. BTCC made similar calls to the banks but they declined to confirm or deny anything on the matter. But generally the understanding is that government officials have notifified all financial institutions not to accept/send cash to BTCC - we assume the directive is also effective for all other alt-currency exchanges.

I will also share his thoughts, from a local perspective:

The move was driven by a desire/perceived need to control capital flows. My own view is that recent terrorist events, and well as recent regulatory moves overseas, also prompted this move by China's govenment. (Some may not be aware, but recently there have been several 'terrorist' attacks by persecuted Muslim groups. That is a whole 'nother, lets not start. I can confirm, however, that security at airports has tightened noticeably.)

As to the question of 'what comes next' he's of the view that the excange(s) won't be forced to close per se, and BTC cannot/will not be made illegal. He likened it to Porn on the web. Government can ban it, and do all it can to restrict it, but anyone who makes the effort can find it. My colleague said BTC trading will continue - but in what form and manner remains to be seen. We agreed that BTCC is going to have to either find a way to allow deposits/withdrawals, or somehow restructure its business.

As for arb / money flow opportunities, Chinese can get assets/cash to HK pretty easily, so there should be a robust arb between HK and BTCC, and BTC/value may flow into the BTCC exchange in that way.

My 2.

Thank you very much for this information. It would be very helpful if you could add more as and when you hear.

Could I ask you to confirm whether or not people can make deposits from their banks directly into their BTCC accounts? Sorry if this question has already been answered but the current understanding here seems to be that while third-party payment providers cannot deal with any Bitcoin-related activities, citizens may still fund their BTCC accounts directly from their own bank account if they wish.