Temporary bounce to $600? But we're still going doowwwwwwwwnnnnnnnnnnn

[adpinbr]

agree

[porcupine87]

Trend is definitely down.  But this is an interesting double bottom with the flash crash last week.  Also, bottom of April was around 2x the 2011 peak.  $500 is near that WRT the April peak.  We are approaching bubble fully popped.  No-one can expect to call the bottom exactly.  So it might make sense to acquire some coins here and keep some in fiat just in case.

So because the bottom of April was 2x the high of 2011 now it is possible that this bottom is at 500$? Are you sure? Please show me ANY trader or investor who thinks like that? Because it happened one time, it happens a second time?

I read this all the time here. Look, the high of the April bubble was 10times higher than the bubble of 2011. So there the next bubble has to burst at 2500$. Right?

Yeah, I was wondering if someone was going to call me out for that.  Let's just say that the above comment is a bit of a shorthand way to say that if you believe in the fundamental long term exponential trendline is intact then to me a price of 300 to 500 looks pretty good as the bottom.  Kind of like how DJIA tracks SP500 even though it is composed of few stocks.

ok, 300-500 sounds good. Europe is building ATMs now. And it gets regulated (what is good!). But China? I don't know. Therefore 300-500 sounds good. Not because of 2011...

[Burt]

[massivebitman]

I'm very confident that $400 was the bottom. As you say, historically post crash we seem to trend down towards 2x the pre-crash price.

These are great times to trade. It's low enough that I'm confident that it will recover to a ATH within 8-12 months, which means at least 100% gain in my holdings and it's moving quite a bit that I can try and snipe some additional day trading profit.

If it goes to $200 well I have enough FIAT to snap up a decent chunk of coins but it's simply not happening. $300 is even way too cheap right now.

What don't you understand about 44% of the Bitcoin market being forced to liquidate their positions by their government?

No, owning Bitcoins in Chinna is possible, I believe the Bitcoins in Chinna might be more valuable than elsewhere in near future, because of hard way to get Bitcoins in Chinna. Having miner in Chinna and selling the coins privately can be quite profitable if Im right

I totally disagree... While some people in China, might be looking to keep their coins, I'm sure the majority especially the miners would be looking to sell.

Why would anyone want to buy so called bitcoins privately, if chances are they can't get real cash?
Imagine if you had no access to any of the exchanges (pretty much the situation of the Chinese), would you really be holding your coins?
You'd have to be a serious believer to do that.

Nope don't buy it. Almost all the miners in China will be selling out to yuan while they still can. 90% of the speculators will be doing the same.

We shall see... $500 is way to high in this environment, in fact you've got to wonder what will happen as the deadline draws closer.

[massivebitman]

One further thing... Look at BTC China now.. There's a 6.74 million CNY wall at 2640 the equivalent of $434 US.

That is only the start. It won't be long before that and more pushes down the market.

[Odalv]

One further thing... Look at BTC China now.. There's a 6.74 million CNY wall at 2640 the equivalent of $434 US.

That is only the start. It won't be long before that and more pushes down the market.

a) panic SELL ALL YOUR COINS
b) opportunity to buy MORE

... c) write FUD

[e521]

I'm very confident that $400 was the bottom. As you say, historically post crash we seem to trend down towards 2x the pre-crash price.

These are great times to trade. It's low enough that I'm confident that it will recover to a ATH within 8-12 months, which means at least 100% gain in my holdings and it's moving quite a bit that I can try and snipe some additional day trading profit.

If it goes to $200 well I have enough FIAT to snap up a decent chunk of coins but it's simply not happening. $300 is even way too cheap right now.

What don't you understand about 44% of the Bitcoin market being forced to liquidate their positions by their government?

FUD. Chinese can keep their Bitcoins, they aren't forcing them to sell them.

Where did you get 44% from? Was it from FUD article? You cannot really say that 44% is on Chinese hands, what a pile of shite.
Chinese can keep all their coins and use localbitcoins or buy services with them.
And the Chinese Govt was pretty lame, they will come back in a few days/months/years with regulations and there will be a second chinese bubble, wait for it

[evolve]

a) SELL ALL YOUR COINS for a massive profit
b) laugh at bulls still holding
c) buy back in after the crash
d) repeat process

FTFY.

[Odalv]

a) SELL ALL YOUR COINS for a massive profit
b) laugh at bulls still holding
c) buy back in after the crash
d) repeat process

FTFY.

You must to know that this is a gambling. You may win or you will lose in zero-sum-game. NEVER SELL ALL YOUR COINS :-) (not even half if you want survive)

[MatTheCat]

Where did you get 44% from? Was it from FUD article? You cannot really say that 44% is on Chinese hands, what a pile of shite.
Chinese can keep all their coins and use localbitcoins or buy services with them.
And the Chinese Govt was pretty lame, they will come back in a few days/months/years with regulations and there will be a second chinese bubble, wait for it

Okay smart guy

44% of Bitcoin trade was on BTC China. This of course isn't 44% of all BTC in existence, but it is certainly almost half of the trade responsible for pushing the price up to over $1200.

Now, what might happens when this market places fully dissolves...hmm let me see? Ah, I got it! Now that all the weak hands have been shaken out the trade, Bitcoin 2 da Moon!

A 2nd Chinese bubble, one part of me is thinking, "i will certainly keep my ears tot he ground for any news of a relegitimisation of Bitcoin in China"; the other part of me is thinking, "yet more überwishful thinking from someone sitting crying into his empty beer glass?"

[evolve]

You must to know that this is a gambling.

Yup, sure do. Thats why, I only have play money in BTC.

When I want to invest, I contribute to my IRA, stock portfolio, cap plan, 401k, or buy precious metals (a very small fraction of my portfolio).  BTC really doesnt have a place in my investment portfolio (for a variety of reasons), but it makes a great speculative tool.

[Odalv]

You must to know that this is a gambling.

Yup, sure do. Thats why, I only have play money in BTC.

When I want to invest, I contribute to my IRA, stock portfolio, cap plan, 401k, or precious metals (only a small fraction).  BTC really doesnt have a place in my investment portfolio (for a variety of reasons), but it makes a great speculative tool.

I do not know better.

[niothor]

Where did you get 44% from? Was it from FUD article? You cannot really say that 44% is on Chinese hands, what a pile of shite.
Chinese can keep all their coins and use localbitcoins or buy services with them.
And the Chinese Govt was pretty lame, they will come back in a few days/months/years with regulations and there will be a second chinese bubble, wait for it

Okay smart guy

44% of Bitcoin trade was on BTC China. This of course isn't 44% of all BTC in existence, but it is certainly almost half of the trade responsible for pushing the price up to over $1200.

Now, what might happens when this market places fully dissolves...hmm let me see? Ah, I got it! Now that all the weak hands have been shaken out the trade, Bitcoin 2 da Moon!

A 2nd Chinese bubble, one part of me is thinking, "i will certainly keep my ears tot he ground for any news of a relegitimisation of Bitcoin in China"; the other part of me is thinking, "yet more überwishful thinking from someone sitting crying into his empty beer glass?"

44% of trade volumes means nothing.
BTChina had 0 fees , meaning that it encouraged bots and fast trades.

With 0 fees , 10 btc and a bot I alone can surpass Mtgox trading volume.

[MatTheCat]

44% of trade volumes means nothing.
BTChina had 0 fees , meaning that it encouraged bots and fast trades.

With 0 fees , 10 btc and a bot I alone can surpass Mtgox trading volume.

Yes, and using a bot, 1000 BTC or whatever, and 0% trading fees, you could probably bid the price of Bitcoin up 2 da fkn moon, which possibly explains what was happening?

[humanitee]

44% of trade volumes means nothing.
BTChina had 0 fees , meaning that it encouraged bots and fast trades.

With 0 fees , 10 btc and a bot I alone can surpass Mtgox trading volume.

Yes, and using a bot, 1000 BTC or whatever, and 0% trading fees, you could probably bid the price of Bitcoin up 2 da fkn moon, which possibly explains what was happening?

It's a good theory until you realize that they had tons of RMB on the actual exchange UNTIL the banking ban.

[niothor]

44% of trade volumes means nothing.
BTChina had 0 fees , meaning that it encouraged bots and fast trades.

With 0 fees , 10 btc and a bot I alone can surpass Mtgox trading volume.

Yes, and using a bot, 1000 BTC or whatever, and 0% trading fees, you could probably bid the price of Bitcoin up 2 da fkn moon, which possibly explains what was happening?

Trade volume =/= Amount of coins in that exchange.
I've been saying this since November , the numbers on BTChina seemed fake to me , especially since they had only 6000 coins on the whole order book when the madness started.
By comparison Mtgox had 8 times that.

[e521]

[...]
44% of Bitcoin trade was on BTC China. This of course isn't 44% of all BTC in existence, but it is certainly almost half of the trade responsible for pushing the price up to over $1200.
[...]

Trade, NOT ownership, you made the point yourself.
I trade with btc-e, does it mean my coins are now on russian/<insert-shady-country> hands? No.

[...]
It's a good theory until you realize that they had tons of RMB on the actual exchange UNTIL the banking ban.
[...]

What's your source?
Chinese can play for another month as far as I understood.

[humanitee]

[...]
It's a good theory until you realize that they had tons of RMB on the actual exchange UNTIL the banking ban.
[...]

What's your source?
Chinese can play for another month as far as I understood.

[niothor]

[...]
It's a good theory until you realize that they had tons of RMB on the actual exchange UNTIL the banking ban.
[...]

What's your source?
Chinese can play for another month as far as I understood.

That's the order book , it is not equal to the amount of money on that exchange.
Theoretically , they could still have more money right now than ever , if no one withdrew and since they sold all those bitcoins .
Although i doubt that anyone will still keep their money on an exchanger following the news.

[humanitee]

That's the order book , it is not equal to the amount of money on that exchange.
Theoretically , they could still have more money right now than ever , if no one withdrew and since they sold all those bitcoins .
Although i doubt that anyone will still keep their money on an exchanger following the news.

I don't work there so it's not like I can check the database. I'm just assuming this because it fits nicely in the time line.