The State of Cryptocurrency Mining by David Vorick (Sia)

[BenRickert]

....Bitmain posted a very "PR" driven rebuttal to this. It was transparent, weak and so typically Bitmain. This is the best and most accurate article I've ever read in this space. Ever. Unfortunately, the "truth" is like poetry. Everyone hates it.

[1715002002]

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[1715002002]

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[1715002002]

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[NotFuzzyWarm]

....Bitmain posted a very "PR" driven rebuttal to this. It was transparent, weak and so typically Bitmain. This is the best and most accurate article I've ever read in this space. Ever. Unfortunately, the "truth" is like poetry. Everyone hates it.

Link to it please?

[BenRickert]

Link to it please?

Here you go.

https://blog.bitmain.com/en/bitmain-sia-state-cryptocurrency-mining/

[BenRickert]

This is my absolute favorite quote from the article:

First off, we’d like to express our appreciation for David and what he’s achieved with Sia. The crypto community revolves around transparency and trust, and we hope to someday work with David and his team.

Oh yeah....Bitmain "Appreciates" David!! LOL. You KNOW they do. They used him and his Coin like a Golden Goose crapping Golden eggs! LOL.

[NotFuzzyWarm]

Here you go.

https://blog.bitmain.com/en/bitmain-sia-state-cryptocurrency-mining/

Thanks. As with all PR there *is* some truth in BM's response. Namely the bit about parts availability. In short, ja BM could easily corner the market against others who also want to suddenly order a few hundred-k peices of something say, the specific buck inductors they use or the specific large filter caps they use. Fine.

Also keep in mind that when ordering very large quantities say, over 50k of parts, MANY common components are on an allocation basis. Those 'high-end Japanese capacitors' that everyone so rightly choose to use are a prime example. Don't care what value you want they are hard to source, even small quan of a hundred or so can have a lead time over 10 weeks. However, as an engineer who often designs electronic circuits/systems as a living I know there are always alternative design choices to let you use components that are more available.

[philipma1957]

my defense of gpus is my belief that knocking off millions gpus as a mining possibility is bad for crypto coins .  Not for me.

And on that I agree with you. But we are moving away from that now that Crypto (especially Bitcoin) is becoming mainstream and actually quite relevant in society as a whole.

I do believe that the way forward is to commoditize Bitcoin mining into appliances and other forms of electrical "subsidies" for consumers. Honestly, that is really the most plausible route to decentralized mining that I can  if that is what we're aiming at. But I digress, right now we are in the sweet spot of Bitcoin mining (regardless of what people say about profitability etc). The mining curve vs. Adoption rate (growth) is at its peak right now. After this, price growth will flatten out, and mining profitability will shrink after the next halvening enough so that by the time 7nm chips become mainstream, it probably won't be fun to have a dedicated mining facility anymore.

yeah  buy a tv with a miner built in to it at a premium it then pays you back somewhat like an exotic rebate.

or buy a tv without a miner it is cheaper but never pays back.


say 1000 and earn 10 a month

or 800 and earn 0

it is a 20 month roi.

Still creates mainstream.

Get a cable box with a miner
get a cable box with out a miner.

ideas like this would be possible.

I was reading avalon stock prospectus

My message brings an update a year later to this thread... but as part of Canaan's IPO announce, 7nm is confirmed for the "second half of 2018", see page 94 of http://www.hkexnews.hk/APP/SEHK/2018/2018051401/Documents/SEHK201805150005.pdf

Note 2018 second half development of ai

quoted from page 2

"System Products for Other Cryptocurrencies
We currently have an ASIC product for a cryptocurrency other than bitcoin under research and development, for which we have completed front-end IC design, and expect mass production of final products in the fourth quarter of 2018. As of the Latest Practicable Date, we had received pre-sale orders of over RMB53.6 million, subject to the successful test of prototypes. We will continue to develop different types of ASICs to address potential market demand for products with high performance and repeated computing power that can be used for other types of cryptocurrencies that require high computing power.

We began to develop ASICs for AI applications in 2016, and plan to mass produce chips for edge computing, which are known as KPUs, in the fourth quarter of 2018. Target applications include voice and image recognition functionalities in smart home, smart city, smart surveillance, smart toy, and several IoT applications. As of the Latest Practicable Date, we had received pre-sale orders from a variety of customers in a provisional amount of approximately RMB38.2 million in the aggregate, with the actual purchase amount to be adjusted with reference to the then market price of the products after the prototypes have been successfully tested."



quoted from page 7

 "Our future revenue growth, if any, will depend largely on our ability to expand beyond bitcoin mining application and penetrate into new application markets, particularly those ASIC application markets with demand for high performance and computing power or for other types of cryptocurrencies or AI products, all of which are still under development. Each of these markets presents distinct and substantial risks; and
• Our customers and suppliers are based globally, and an increasing portion of our revenues have been derived from sales to customers outside the PRC. As such, changes in government policies, taxes, general economic and fiscal conditions, as well as political, diplomatic or social events expose us to financial and business risks. In particular, changes in policies and laws regarding holding, using or mining of bitcoins could result in an adverse effect on our business operations and our results of operations. Moreover, if any domestic or international jurisdiction where we operate or sell our products prohibits or restricts bitcoin mining activities, we may experience material loss of revenue"


Looks like they may abandon or shift from mining gear

seems like avalon is looking to do more then just sell miners for the asics.

[BenRickert]

Phillipma....that is somewhat mind blowing. envisioning the various potential applications feels like drinking from a firehose.

[philipma1957]

I would love to have a Samsung tv that mines a bit while I watch my favorite movie

[d57heinz]

Phillipma....that is somewhat mind blowing. envisioning the various potential applications feels like drinking from a firehose.

Most of us small guys been using the inefficient rigs for heat in winter.  This is bound to be the only way to keep decentralized make it cost more to mine than what it earns.  That would shut down all major farms in a big hurry.  Using Phil’s method imagine if they put one in tv and never tell us.  I’m sure some will watch and see.  They will then get rich off our power.  Kinda like the holders would be doing.  ESP when it costs more to mine then it returns.  Will be an interesting scenario to see play out.  Best Buy coins not dump anymore into rigs.  That’s my best educated look at the situation. 

BR

[Flying Hellfish]

~snip~
yeah  buy a tv with a miner built in to it at a premium it then pays you back somewhat like an exotic rebate.

or buy a tv without a miner it is cheaper but never pays back.


say 1000 and earn 10 a month

or 800 and earn 0

it is a 20 month roi.

Still creates mainstream.

Get a cable box with a miner
get a cable box with out a miner.

ideas like this would be possible.

I think it would likely look more like 1000 and earn $0.10 a year and use an extra $50 a year in electricity

or 800 and earn 0

so after 24 months you have a $1099.80 TV.

An appliance miner is never going to compete with high density mining farms, we already have CPU's but no one use's them to mine to "reduce" its capital cost's.

[-ck]

I think it would likely look more like 1000 and earn $0.10 a year and use an extra $50 a year in electricity

or 800 and earn 0

so after 24 months you have a $1099.80 TV.

An appliance miner is never going to compete with high density mining farms, we already have CPU's but no one use's them to mine to "reduce" its capital cost's.

This is absolutely correct. The equation can't possibly work in an appliance's favour in any way. The only thing that remotely has a chance is a space heater that mines to generate its heat. To that end, that's what I use my T1s for now that it's getting colder here, but they need to be dedicated to doing so in a fashion that is meaningful in normal households, not somewhere with tons of power and that can tolerate noise. There just is NO market for that kind of hardware though; it's all aimed at super giant fucking massive farms, and selling 10s of thousands of miners at a time, not a handful to the regular public. There's no money in making hardware for everyone else, so it's just not going to happen.

[Philopolymath]

I think you will find necessity will motivate miner/entrepreneurs to find innovative profitable ways to use the waste heat.  My local Micro brewery is warming up to my miners. My winter greenhouse is profitable.

[marthor]

The only reason that ASICs are winning is that ASIC manufactures are bribing developers to do nothing about ASICs taking over an algorithm. It would be very easy for a coin like Zcash to tweak Equihash and prevent all of the Z9s from mining. (Monero showed how simple and effective it is.) Contrary to Vorick's claims, ASICs cannot easily get around such a change -- if they were able to, then they wouldn't be much more efficient than current GPUs.

The author of the blog sells ASICs, so it's in his best interest to make GPU miners think there is no hope. He's also a very sleazy person. He accepted crowd funding for five batches of Siacoin ASICs almost a year ago and has yet to deliver a single product. So given his behavior, I can't trust anything Vorick says. In fact, I'm inclined to believe he's a compulsive liar who will say anything to get money.

[BenRickert]

The only reason that ASICs are winning is that ASIC manufactures are bribing developers to do nothing about ASICs taking over an algorithm. It would be very easy for a coin like Zcash to tweak Equihash and prevent all of the Z9s from mining. (Monero showed how simple and effective it is.) Contrary to Vorick's claims, ASICs cannot easily get around such a change -- if they were able to, then they wouldn't be much more efficient than current GPUs.

The author of the blog sells ASICs, so it's in his best interest to make GPU miners think there is no hope. He's also a very sleazy person. He accepted crowd funding for five batches of Siacoin ASICs almost a year ago and has yet to deliver a single product. So given his behavior, I can't trust anything Vorick says. In fact, I'm inclined to believe he's a compulsive liar who will say anything to get money.

In the article, he stated substantiated facts. You posted a bunch of speculation, guess and conjecture glazed over with personal opinion and unwarranted optimism. In short....he's right and you're wrong.

[philipma1957]

The only reason that ASICs are winning is that ASIC manufactures are bribing developers to do nothing about ASICs taking over an algorithm. It would be very easy for a coin like Zcash to tweak Equihash and prevent all of the Z9s from mining. (Monero showed how simple and effective it is.) Contrary to Vorick's claims, ASICs cannot easily get around such a change -- if they were able to, then they wouldn't be much more efficient than current GPUs.

The author of the blog sells ASICs, so it's in his best interest to make GPU miners think there is no hope. He's also a very sleazy person. He accepted crowd funding for five batches of Siacoin ASICs almost a year ago and has yet to deliver a single product. So given his behavior, I can't trust anything Vorick says. In fact, I'm inclined to believe he's a compulsive liar who will say anything to get money.

In the article, he stated substantiated facts. You posted a bunch of speculation, guess and conjecture glazed over with personal opinion and unwarranted optimism. In short....he's right and you're wrong.

he wrote that article as sour grapes he bet the farm to build an asic rather then securing his al-gore-rythm bitmain handed him his ass and he now spouts off that asics are god and other gear is shit.

I came up with a good analogy.  Asics vs gpus    is  kind of like cars vs bicycles.
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------
asics + cars  costly loud burn a lot of power.

gpus+bikes cheap quieter burn less  millions of people can afford them

------------------------------------------------------------------------------
asics + cars  go faster and carry more people and cargo, mine faster

gpus + bike go slow carry less people and cargo ,mine slower
---------------------------------------------------------------------------
asics + cars need decent roads and do not maneuver great only do 1 coin or algorithm

gpus + bikes do not really need roads and can be moved around obstacles easily do any coin


you could argue a fpga is like a vespa


my point is the writer of the blog is saying no more bikes they are worthless  go get a car.

And while he may have paved the road with his coin for asics since he wanted his own asic others will alter the roads to stop cars/asics

Should be fun to watch.

and to the Sia developer oh well as seth would say your'e burnt



BTW all of bitumen's moves are based on the simple fact that the .11 watt s-9 edge has been lost.

June 2016 s-9 .11 watts
next best s-7 .25 watts

avalon's gear was .29 in June of 2016

for a 256 miner to have the edge the s-9 once had it would need to do 30 th at 1200 watts and cost 700 usd to build you could sell it for 3k and once again be a true king of btc.

no one can do that with btc.

bitmain want to get far ahead in any algorithm to make tons of money and sia developer were burnt fucking with asics and not developing in the coin.

[BenRickert]

I hope that for the sake of GPU miners, the present car/bike ratio replicates itself in the ASIC/GPU world. I believe I saw a headline recently that bikes are now equal to cars worldwide in numbers. There's always hope.

[Dalkore]

Yes it's a good article and it's accurate. What's frustrating for those of us that lived through the conversion of bitcoin from CPU to ASIC is that the rules and issues have never changed, and we see the same mistakes being made over and over by both new manufacturers and newcomers into the game trying to capitalise on a market they think they understand. Bitmain have got the mining world by the balls and that is not going to change by anyone trying to take them on by the same rules they play by. I've been warning people since the first ASICs got announced but alas no one listened, and then I just gave up trying to warn them... No one seemed to want to believe me and for whatever reason very few every considered consulting me despite my obvious position in the mining world.

Me too ck.  When ASIC first hit I told people this is now an arms race that will lead to ultimate centralization in to a handful of large mining operations that will gather a majority of the coins and fees.   I remember reading your posts on this too and you were right.

[dutchlincoln]

but why?
i dont see why private miners cant buy a few asics, instead uf gpu?
if enough miners place some asics next to their gpu miners, it would be just as de-centralised...
with current asic prices this shouldnt be an issue as well...

[buwaytress]

but why?
i dont see why private miners cant buy a few asics, instead uf gpu?
if enough miners place some asics next to their gpu miners, it would be just as de-centralised...
with current asic prices this shouldnt be an issue as well...

Because... from what I glean from the article, every time you order an Asic from a big player, even if it's the one with the quickest delivery time to order like Bitmain, you give them enough capital to make much more than 10 times what you ordered. By the time you receive your order, you get 1 ASIC, weeks or months closer to being obsolete, while the big player has more than 10 times more resources to add to their own hashrate or develop more efficient tech.

So the more you support by buying from them, the bigger their monopoly of hashrate. Yes, you're spreading out the hashrate, but it is the minority share that's getting more distributed. The majority, the big players, gets bigger.

[Flying Hellfish]

People with dollar signs for brains have been giving interest free loans to their competition since late 2012.  Couple that with a system DESIGNED as a near zero sum game and then ask yourself "what the fuck could possibly go wrong with this scenario".

It's what humans do though, we push the boundaries, we exploit the smallest advantages, we work within systems to maximize our value.  When a system is designed to reward those with the biggest advantage (ie lowest capital cost of equipment and overhead) then we should expect those with the greatest advantage to exploit it at every turn, because we are human.

I'm not saying that there isn't some people who wouldn't exploit a system if they could.  Lots of reasons exist to not exploit something you care about, but it is naive at best to think a system such as this won't be exploited by the vast majority of people that CAN.  It's also interesting to see how many people who don't have the proper advantages try to "exploit" the system.

The current trend of "centralizing" miners in the hands of the manufacture (or large enterprise level farms) should be expected to continue unabated as their is currently no reason to NOT continue as is!

Note exploit in context could also be read as "work within a system designed to favour those with certain advantages".

Edit:  When someone figures out how Bitmain (or any company) can make MORE profits selling only to home miners and NOT by mining themselves AND selling to ANYONE with a couple satoshi's then and only then perhaps can we start to discuss true decentralization of POW mining.