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Author Topic: Bitcoin will plummet to $10 by first half of 2014  (Read 49915 times)
Athom
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December 20, 2013, 07:43:18 AM
 #1

by Victor Kerezov

Mark Williams, a risk management and capital markets professor at Boston University, is out with a bold call – he predicts that the price of one bitcoin will crash to $10 or even lower by the first half of 2014.
Williams is a risk management practitioner and academic with tw-decades of experience from working as a bank examiner at the US Federal Reserve to a commodities trading floor senior executive.
The finance professor observes that the buying and selling of the digital currency is “controlled by only a handful of exchanges in places like China, Slovenia and Bulgaria.” Exchange bankruptcies are not uncommon for the roller-coaster bitcoin market. In addition, the exchanges are based on a peer-to-peer model and regulation is virtually absent.
Bitcoin “has not been bear-market tested and if enough sellers try to run for the door it is not clear that existing infrastructure is capable of executing trade orders without significant time delays and price risk,” clarifies the former commodities trader.
Some bitcoin aficionados claim that the digital currency would replace the US dollar as the new global reserve currency, while others believe the digital form of money would provide a cheaper alternative to expensive payment platforms such as Western Union. “Adding more helium to the story, the Winklevoss twins of Facebook fame, not being shy about talking up their own book, predicted prices would rise to a staggering $40,000 per coin”, notes Williams
At the start of this month, bitcoin peaked at over $1,200 as “e-currency evangelists trumpeted the endless possibilities to be unleashed”. However, the price more than halved since then as the ‘Chinese regulatory pin’ burst the hyper bubble. In the view of the risk management expert, “the market has finally realized that hype alone cannot support lofty prices”.
Mark Williams then goes on to say that every asset bubble has three phases: “growth, maturity and pop”. He believes that 2013 was the maturity stage and we are now entering the time when the bubble pops. “Ironically, China, the second largest economy in the world, helped push Bitcoin prices to the clouds and now is pulling prices back to earth,” observes the former Fed bank examiner. In the last two weeks, the People’s Bank of China banned local banks from accepting the digital currency and then forbade third-party firms from transacting with bitcoin exchanges. In between the two announcement, Baidu, China’s Google equivalent, announced it would no longer accept bitcoins. Other major central banks and banking watch-dogs have taken a similar position like the PBoC, warning against the risks of the e-currency.

Williams then goes to proclaim that “if bitcoin was allowed to proliferate as a currency it would produce greater economic uncertainty, reduced trade and lower individual standard of living.” Retailers typically work on tight margins and the immense volatility of the e-currency could eliminate all their profit or even result in losses. In this bitcoin world of uncertainty and risk, commerce would ultimately decline and stone-age bartering would increase. “Naturally, as bitcoin price swings increased, the number of businesses willing to accept e-currency risk would decline”, assumes the former commodities trader.
“Bitcoin is not a legitimate currency but simply a risky virtual commodity bet”, argues the academic at Boston University. Even Winklevii’s call that it is a commodity currency may be unfounded because the wannabe currency does not have a tangible value like gold, which is a widely accepted alternative form of money.
Bitcoin is just backed by dreams and it is “only worth what people are willing to pay”, opines the former Fed bank examiner. “As it becomes increasingly evident that Bitcoin will not be the global currency standard, but simply a novel idea that will be improved upon by more nimble competitors such as Litecoin, restrictions and new regulations will be imposed and prices will plummet.”
“I predict that Bitcoin will trade for under $10 a share by the first half of 2014, single digit pricing reflecting its option value as a pure commodity play”, concludes Mark Williams.

http://invezz.com/news/forex/7726-bitcoin-usd-will-plummet-to-dollar-10-by-first-half-of-2014-predicts-risk-management-expert
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HairyMaclairy
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December 20, 2013, 08:17:59 AM
 #2

Good. Gives us late entrants another shot. 
cr1776
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December 20, 2013, 10:54:00 AM
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If he were a seer he'd be retired, not an academic.  "Those who can't do, teach."

If it turns out to be true there will be a lot of buyers, so it seems unlikely to be true.
samo
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December 20, 2013, 08:23:26 PM
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The meat of his argument is extremely off base and based on merchants not willing to accept btc due to its price volatility and as a result would lose its value because of this, ah hello sir theres already a processor who handles this called Bitpay so that makes that part of your argument null and void. For someone with such an extensive background its ashame no extensive research was done on the subject matter he's talking about.
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December 20, 2013, 10:02:30 PM
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Good. Gives us late entrants another shot. 

Exactly. Even if Bitcoin were to reach $100 instead of $10, the amount of buyers would be staggering enough to keep Bitcoin valuable.

Besides, for 2014, if there is any progression in Bitcoin acceptance with businesses, it'll continue to rise (or at least stay stagnant and not drop).
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December 20, 2013, 10:03:29 PM
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Cool, except before China entered the scene, bitcoins were already near ~$200.
And there are hundreds more businesses that accept bitcoins now, than before, and will be even more in the future.
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December 20, 2013, 10:08:21 PM
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Around $300 should be the low:

http://www.forbes.com/sites/jessecolombo/2013/12/19/bitcoin-may-be-following-this-classic-bubble-stages-chart/

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December 20, 2013, 10:43:14 PM
 #8

Well hello dere http://bitbet.us/bet/672/btc-will-hit-1000-without-dropping-to-100/ (bet no and make me rich)

Look inside yourself, and you will see that you are the bubble.
porc
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December 20, 2013, 10:48:58 PM
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I agree in the sense that I also believe that in 2014 the price will be below 10 dollars.
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December 20, 2013, 10:55:52 PM
 #10

I agree in the sense that I also believe that in 2014 the price will be below 10 dollars.
Then bet on it! You damn troll! Put your money where your mouth is!

Look inside yourself, and you will see that you are the bubble.
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December 20, 2013, 11:01:08 PM
 #11

to make it as low as $10 it would have to be forbidden in 90% of the world.

chrsjrcj
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December 21, 2013, 01:02:31 AM
 #12

$10


lawl

I'd bet him 1 BTC that doesn't happen.
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December 21, 2013, 03:55:26 AM
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I agree in the sense that I also believe that in 2014 the price will be below 10 dollars.
Then bet on it! You damn troll! Put your money where your mouth is!

This should be interesting. You've been challenged. Hope your not going to weasel out of it porc. Cheesy

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December 21, 2013, 04:06:21 AM
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i'll bet up to 1000 btc that this does not happen, and i'll give 2:1 odds, all you gotta do is put up 500 btc!!
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December 21, 2013, 06:16:26 AM
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I agree in the sense that I also believe that in 2014 the price will be below 10 dollars.
Then bet on it! You damn troll! Put your money where your mouth is!

Dont harass other members.
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December 21, 2013, 06:17:52 AM
 #16

Who cares, BTC is unstable anyways and when it seems prices go up, dont expect it to be like that forever. I fit were to go down that much, I will buy 10 BTC. Great Day for all of us, right?
infinitybo
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December 21, 2013, 07:39:50 AM
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Athom, there is many of the same things that give gold value, give Bitcoins value.
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December 21, 2013, 08:04:16 AM
 #18

Who cares, BTC is unstable anyways

That's because it has just a tiny market cap of $10 billion. Tiny markets are always unstable.

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December 21, 2013, 08:59:35 AM
 #19

Sure it will if it does I will need to eat my shorts and buy whatever beat it in 3 months  Cool
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December 21, 2013, 01:27:06 PM
 #20

Haha, yeah right.  I believe in volatility, but common sense says there is too much momentum for it to go that low.  This is nothing but an attention grabbing publicity stunt.

Try my free BTC price alerts | In the 20th century, the United States endured two world wars and other traumatic and expensive military conflicts; the Depression; a dozen or so recessions and financial panics; oil shocks; a flu epidemic; and the resignation of a disgraced president. Yet the Dow rose from 66 to 11,497 - Warren Buffet
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