Bitcoin will plummet to $10 by first half of 2014

[BitOnyx]

Biggest problem of creating any kind of prognoses of future is that other people are also expecting certain changes of events and they are getting ready for it. So, even though in current situation, based on facts that we have right now ( even though facts might a big too big word, more like interesting coincidence and intuition mixed with, I guess, something like medieval magic) we make expect something to happen, it actually might never do, even though it would make perfect sense. I wonder if people who make such expectations will try to make some money out of it, since we all know that you can make money out of fall. I personally don't expect "plummet". With new players on market, we get more movement. It is not first prognoses of "plummet" of bitcoin and we all know what happened.

[1713505074]

1713505074

[Kaligulax]

Maybe.. but i dont think so... When we get rid of MtGox we all be happy

[Swordsoffreedom]

Maybe.. but i dont think so... When we get rid of MtGox we all be happy

Technically we mean MTGOX will  plummet to $10 not bitcoin but I also will look forward to its demise
RIP Magic the Gathering the Exchange it all went down from there to a lv 25 Bit monster on a dice roll of 13 hehe with a boost of 4 still dead, ignore the munchkins reference.

[joeventyra]

another bullshit story. bitcoin will go up!

[sh484]

Hi guys. Logic tells dictates a lot of traders money and coins are in mtgox. So its cash tied up. Once mtgox release some coins and funds prices will shoot back up because theres more cashflow in the market. Just hope they release cash to the honest investers that trusted them
What do you guys think?

[murkster]

ISAWHIM probably the best posts I have read I am now following you like a lovesick teenager lol..

Remember everyone, banks control the world. Bitcoin and altcoins offer an alterntive to debt based fiat currency (backed by lies)

Bitcoin (and alts) are a threat, not a huge one but a potential.  Hence warnings and laws forbiding its use. I would not be surprised if many of the 'whales' are banking interests buying up to control. (The sooner bitcoin becomes mainstream and loosens the shackles of fiat the better)

Make no mistake the total market cap value of bitcoin is short change to trillionaire banking interests.

[boumalo]

The sentiment on Bitcoin is extremely low among people that follow the mtgox fiasco but the price is resisting!!

Maybe it won't resist that much and it will fall extremely low if the trend is firmly negative in the next few days, it is hard to predict, I am surprise it resists that much I think it either means that Bitcoin is stronger than I think or that it won't resist that much longer and the price will plunge, let's hope it is because Bitcoin has a lot of support

[RodeoX]

This guy should know! ...he's recently heard of bitcoin. Combine this with his super-human ability to know the future and you have a prognostication you can bank on.

[2double0]

I hope not....

[hungpham]

good, i'll as much as i can

[JessyMatt]

Sad thing is...I believe Mark!

[ning]

I came across the following words and I found it amusing and relevant. I'm quoting it here:

"We have a natural tendency to listen to the expert, even in fields where there may be no experts." -- from The Black Swan

[skivrmt]

I came across the following words and I found it amusing and relevant. I'm quoting it here:

"We have a natural tendency to listen to the expert, even in fields where there may be no experts." -- from The Black Swan

Are you implying there are no experts in the field of Bitcoin?   I certainly think there are, but 99% of the people on this board are not them.  Who are the experts then?  And what does it mean to be an expert?  Good luck in both of those questions!

[dcan1081]

I have traveled to the future and back. Bitcoin will go up to $1500USD by July this year. Mark my words. Send me nxt for more prophecies. 18277938078391870877

[bazzanii]

I came across the following words and I found it amusing and relevant. I'm quoting it here:

"We have a natural tendency to listen to the expert, even in fields where there may be no experts." -- from The Black Swan

Are you implying there are no experts in the field of Bitcoin?   I certainly think there are, but 99% of the people on this board are not them.  Who are the experts then?  And what does it mean to be an expert?  Good luck in both of those questions!

Maybe the quotation is true cause true experts just don't share with their knowledges they use it to make money that's why the experts who we are listening to are not the good ones.

[ning]

I came across the following words and I found it amusing and relevant. I'm quoting it here:

"We have a natural tendency to listen to the expert, even in fields where there may be no experts." -- from The Black Swan

Are you implying there are no experts in the field of Bitcoin?  I certainly think there are, but 99% of the people on this board are not them.  Who are the experts then?  And what does it mean to be an expert?  Good luck in both of those questions!

Sorry for the confusion, I should have been more explicit

Here is a personal perspective on expertise: I tend to believe that real and observable expertise often involves physical skills, like carrying out a brain surgery, playing a violin, hitting the target from a thousand yards, fixing cars or even being the man in the Man Vs Wild To put it another way, I should be feeling safe when delegating activities or decisions to the experts in their fields of expertise. However, in the field of predicting market behaviors or trends, the long-term price of certain items to be specific, one can hardly feel safe delegating the decision makings to alleged experts. This is because the market can be so vulnerable to unpredictable inputs. For example, the crash of an exchange might crash the market itself as well, or a programming error in the trading bots can potentially push the price of a stock up through the roof, etc. The future of a market might be given, but it's not predictable, we have to wait until the day comes. Also, having a Harvard degree or being a Nobel prize winner in economics doesn't (or at least shouldn't) justify a person's ability to precisely predict the future of market behaviors.

[donnymillions]

$10


lawl

I'd bet him 1 BTC that doesn't happen.

That's a smart bet. If it does drop to $10, you only owe him $10. If it does not, then you get what ever the market value is, which in theory would be higher than the $10 you hedged your bet against.

[AlexGR]

Stop thinking, and just buy a damn coin already. There are far less coins that will ever be in existence than there are people to use them. We will all be lucky if we can afford 0.00001 BTC in the future. The quantity is irrelevant to the ability to obtain a share of usable representation of any value.

.......

We have to stop looking at "how many dollars a BTC is", and look at "how much BTC can you get with a dollar".

$0.01/BTC = 100.00000000 BTC
$5/BTC = 0.20000000 BTC
$30/BTC = ~0.03333334 BTC
$250/BTC = 0.00400000 BTC
$1200/BTC = ~0.00083334 BTC
$6000/BTC = ~0.00001667 BTC
...
...
...
$100000000/BTC = 0.00000001 BTC = $2,100,000,000,000,000 / world-pop (7,143,000,000) = $293,994.12 per person.

Even that last BTC-value sounds realistic... but by the time the coin ends creation, population will be larger, and there will be even fewer coins left. So it could go higher. That many "dollars" in the future, might only get you an apartment, for 3 months... or a cheap used car...

If we divide the M3 of USD and the global population it's like 1500 USD per person.
If we divide the 180.000 tons of gold with the global population it's like 25 grams per person.
If we divide the 12m BTCs with the global population it's like ...0.0017 BTC per person.

In terms of scarcity: If we divide the 25 trn+ USD (of USD+EUR M3) with the 12mn BTC it's like 2.1mn USD for every BTC.
In terms of scarcity: If we divide 180.000 tons of gold with 12mn BTCs, every BTC corresponds to 15 KG (or 482 ounces) of gold.

[zolace]

We are in April 2014 and bitcoin is around $450,so very very very bad prediction!

[atp1916]

This is just the tip of the iceberg in terms of the overall transaction fee "business", but here is Walmart already pissed off about it:
http://rt.com/business/walmart-sue-visa-5billion-813/

5 billion reasons (and many billion more) why Walmart and the rest of the market will use the Bitcoin protocol to enhance their business model (and streamline obnoxious transaction fees) once core market support platforms/services have been implemented.  

Does anyone think that a company (or any other company for that matter) would not leap at the chance to save thousands, millions, or billions a year?  This is why Bitcoin will win in the long run once it matures into something CEOs will feel comfortable about using.

All of that obviousness aside,to "Professor" Mark Williams: you are an elitist out-of-touch academic who is simply predicting doom and gloom because you want to save face in front of your other elitist out-of-touch peers.  You've admitted to owning bitcoin even.  Feel obliged to join Warren Buffet and the rest of his type in the "old men who hate technology" club.  Tell me, do you take a month to grade your students' work while you pontificate out your behind about technology you have 0 honest clue about?