Bitcoin will plummet to $10 by first half of 2014

[bitpop]

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[1714649790]

1714649790

[hamiltino]

Shows what education can do to the brain. Makes you unable to think outside of whatever dogma you were taught.

Some of the greatest minds ever have made the same silly mistakes by trying to predict the future.

"No one will need more than 637KB of memory for a personal computer. 640KB ought to be enough for anybody." --Bill Gates, co-founder and chairman of Microsoft

"There is no reason for any individual to have a computer in his home." --Ken Olsen, founder of Digital Equipment Corp.

"I predict the Internet 0x2026 will soon go spectacularly supernova and in 1996 catastrophically collapse." --Robert Metcalfe, founder of 3Com, inventor of Ethernet, tech pundit and columnist

"There is practically no chance communications space satellites will be used to provide better telephone, telegraph, television, or radio service inside the United States." --T. Craven, FCC Commissioner (said in 1961)

"There's just not that many videos I want to watch." --Steve Chen, CTO and co-founder of YouTube

"The Americans have need of the telephone, but we do not. We have plenty of messenger boys." --Sir William Preece, chief engineer, British Post Office

"Television won't be able to hold onto any market it captures after the first six months. People will soon get tired of staring at a plywood box every night." --Daryl Zanuck, film producer, co-founder of 20th Century Fox

"We will never make a 32-bit operating system." --Bill Gates, co-founder and chairman of Microsoft

Full story -  http://www.informationweek.com/it-leadership/12-worst-tech-predictions-of-all-time/d/d-id/1096169?page_number=12

Even so, people who don't have an academic education tend to be, intuitively speaking more open minded to new ideas. This is just my generalization without looking at any studies on this issue. So I could be wrong.

[PoolMinor]

Anyone wants a second chance to buy BTC at a lower price, or to go back in time, need not worry. Simple choice is to buy Franko, it is very undervalued right now.

[Operatr]

Anyone wants a second chance to buy BTC at a lower price, or to go back in time, need not worry. Simple choice is to buy Franko, it is very undervalued right now.

No it isnt.

[ISAWHIM]

And then reality comes to light, as they realize they were not talking about something they actually have any real knowledge of.

You can't apply "stock knowledge", or "money knowledge", or "commodity knowledge", to something that is all three at once. BTC is more like art... Doesn't matter what the majority thinks, someone finds value in it, so it has value. If it has use, as it was intended, then it has a wider audience of those who make it valuable. If it is limited in supply, then demand will add additional value to all those who find a use for it.

This is a whole new breed of valued-exchange-representation, that only WE understand, because it is only US who make, use, and sustain value in it.

Perhaps he simply failed to look at historic value, of anything. Historic value (not historic patterns), plays a major part of value as these limited and decaying volumes pass through each pair of hands. Those losses, as they become greater, force value to be added, to regain losses so they become less of a loss. The illusion is that the value goes up, the reality is that we just can't offer as much, for the same value, after losses are added. The complete opposite of money, which you can not control your loss recovery for. We let governments set our losses, and they always set them in favor of governments and big-businesses and friends.

It is harder to get a millionaire to part with a million dollars, yet it is easy to convince a million men to part with a dollar. That is government.

It is easy to take a million gold bars from one million people. They just show you one gold bar, and say "this is yours", but I will hold it for you and give you these pieces of paper to represent that gold bar of yours... Then they show the next customer the same exact gold bar, and says "this is yours", but I will hold it for you and give you these pieces of paper to represent that gold bar of yours... Repeat one million times... Then spend all but one of those gold bars, so that each customer can come to check if their gold is still there, to ease their comfort. While those gold bars you just sold, now come back, and you give them more paper, and show them the same gold bar, over and over... That is a bank...

Stocks are just loans... bank/gov combined.

Predictions are never right, if only by luck, because speaking it, almost damns it to never happen, or forces it to happen. More often, than not, it never happens. If it did, it wouldn't matter, because BTC being traded at $10 would only be those coins with that value. That does not make all coins that value, just as $1200 was not the value of all coins... just those few.

Still... $6000 is just around the corner...

You have to ask yourself... did he say that to make it happen, or stop it from happening? Is he trying to get us to buy his coins at $6000, or is he trying to trick us into buying his coins at $3000, or is he trying to stall the market and force it lower, so he can get more coins for less at $300...

Stop thinking, and just buy a damn coin already. There are far less coins that will ever be in existence than there are people to use them. We will all be lucky if we can afford 0.00001 BTC in the future. The quantity is irrelevant to the ability to obtain a share of usable representation of any value.

Never settle for less than it is worth, and it will rise faster than anything.

Settle for less, and you assume the loss which impedes its ability to grow in value, but you do make it affordable and available to others of a larger audience.

You want it to grow, sacrifice some value, for the prosperity and expansion. Your future will reward you more, in the end. Otherwise you hit a cold dead wall, where no-one wants to spend a dime on a fraction of a priceless coin.

Remember $6000... Save and hold... Then give half away, cash-in half of what is left, and the remaining portion you continue to hold. Trust me, you won't lose if you don't "cash-out for good". Then it is just game-over... For you... The rest of the world will move right over you.

Oh, if anyone wants to sell me your Gox-BTC (for cash)... I will take it for $10/BTC... but if you want more, I will still take it for the price it is trading now (on Gox). However, you should think about giving me 50% off, for that nice confusing post above! 50% off, or twice as much... you pick... One must sound better than the other.

We have to stop looking at "how many dollars a BTC is", and look at "how much BTC can you get with a dollar".

$0.01/BTC = 100.00000000 BTC
$5/BTC = 0.20000000 BTC
$30/BTC = ~0.03333334 BTC
$250/BTC = 0.00400000 BTC
$1200/BTC = ~0.00083334 BTC
$6000/BTC = ~0.00001667 BTC
...
...
...
$100000000/BTC = 0.00000001 BTC = $2,100,000,000,000,000 / world-pop (7,143,000,000) = $293,994.12 per person.

Even that last BTC-value sounds realistic... but by the time the coin ends creation, population will be larger, and there will be even fewer coins left. So it could go higher. That many "dollars" in the future, might only get you an apartment, for 3 months... or a cheap used car...

[ISAWHIM]

No it isnt.

I strongly disagree.

Honestly... if you have to "tell people"... then you might be the only one with that thought. (true or not)

Buy what you can. If others believe it, they will buy too. If they don't buy... then you might be wrong...

Though, in additional honesty... All coins are under-valued. The act of telling people is as useless as yelling at the TV to make your football team play better.

The problem isn't that people don't want to buy a valuable coin. The problem is simply that people want quick returns, with high value. Value is mostly determined by loss, with all coins. Fastest way to add value is to take it from others. (Theft, loss, taxes and mining operating-expense is where these coins get the primary value.)

Without loss, a dollar is always equal to a dollar. Nothing more, nothing less. (Only a dollar is never actually worth a dollar, ever, thus it is in perpetual loss. Creating the illusion of increased value. Reality is, you get less and less each passing. Just like a coin...)

[MNDan]

Great post, ISAWHIM! Thanks!

[Mythul]

Great post. It is nice to see some positive attitude in this depressing time. Many are so blinded by the charts and greed that they for the fact that BTC is a technological advance in finance and not some fad that will disappear in a few months. No wonder the all-time best strategy is "HODL-ing".

[ISAWHIM]

Here is what an actual professional thinks. One who knows the unique type of "value representation" that BTC is...

BTC to $50,000/BTC, just not by tomorrow... Next year... lol.
http://finance.fortune.cnn.com/2014/02/18/50000-bitcoin/

Someone sold 1 BTC for $10... So, that was his choice. Exchanges don't determine YOUR price, they just reflect what others are willing to let them go for. If you let others dictate your value, you are just a spectator. Go back to stocks and FIAT. That is a spectator sport.

[rohnearner]

Here is what an actual professional thinks. One who knows the unique type of "value representation" that BTC is...

BTC to $50,000/BTC, just not by tomorrow... Next year... lol.
http://finance.fortune.cnn.com/2014/02/18/50000-bitcoin/

Someone sold 1 BTC for $10... So, that was his choice. Exchanges don't determine YOUR price, they just reflect what others are willing to let them go for. If you let others dictate your value, you are just a spectator. Go back to stocks and FIAT. That is a spectator sport.

Agree with you , so many people do not understand what exactly is happening out there , and they will call themselves victim.. ! its a long term investment now, how long its upto you..!

[cbeast]

I predict Bitcoin will go to one dollar and one dollar to go to $50,000. 

[Unpmeric]

AS long as we keep using it and don't mass sell our coin's all will be good. It's all based on confidence. I am confident Bitcoin will will be here post 2014 and way beyond.

[RodeoX]

Every time an "expert" does an analysis of bitcoin it reminds me of Laurie Anderson's song on the subject.

Fun stuff.  

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=bvhfSH9CbCw

[relb]

this expert works for the FED.  intentions?

[sawani]

Bitcoin dropped 15-fold over 6 months in 2012.  Add a trip to the zoo to your general education todo list.

[Swordsoffreedom]

I should edit this


MTGOX will plummet to $10 by first second half of 2014

Discuss 

[B-BoyX]

he's right :O

[aminorex]

he's right :O

if you count mt.gox he's close enough so that i regret excoriating his prediction some time ago.
i am disinclined to count mt.gox as a real price, however, so there is room for more contempt.

[IamCANADIAN013]

he's right :O

if you count mt.gox he's close enough so that i regret excoriating his prediction some time ago.
i am disinclined to count mt.gox as a real price, however, so there is room for more contempt.

Well depending on who you talk to, they believe the mt.gox price.  I'm on a few different online forums, one of them has a bitcoin thread that I comment on often.  I have been raked through the coals over the past couple weeks with "I told you so's" It's rather funny actually. They keep posting the typical Bitcoin is dead crap, and are convinced it's going to be worthless any day/hour now.

 I can say I never saw it going down like it has, but in the long run, I thinks its a healthy thing to have happened.

[Warren]

by Victor Kerezov

Williams then goes to proclaim that “if bitcoin was allowed to proliferate as a currency it would produce greater economic uncertainty, reduced trade and lower individual standard of living.” Retailers typically work on tight margins and the immense volatility of the e-currency could eliminate all their profit or even result in losses. In this bitcoin world of uncertainty and risk, commerce would ultimately decline and stone-age bartering would increase. “Naturally, as bitcoin price swings increased, the number of businesses willing to accept e-currency risk would decline”, assumes the former commodities trader.

“I predict that Bitcoin will trade for under $10 a share by the first half of 2014, single digit pricing reflecting its option value as a pure commodity play”, concludes Mark Williams.

There is clearly an agenda but even so, the ignorance is shocking, and to think that this man is now telling those around him: "I told you so, this is only the start." is really sad...

I really hope that he lives long enough to see how stupid these comments were.