Wilhelm
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Activity: 1652
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December 22, 2013, 11:34:04 AM |
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Why would people here in China get rid of their Bitcoins if they feel that it might be more difficult to obtain them in the future? I certainly would not sell and would be hoarding them instead!
If you can't spend bitcoin due to the big Chinese firewall and your too poor to go abroad what are bitcoins worth? You would hoard them but you are referring to a free country. China is not a free country. |
Bitcoin is like a box of chocolates. You never know what you're gonna get !!
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empoweoqwj
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December 22, 2013, 11:39:22 AM |
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Why would people here in China get rid of their Bitcoins if they feel that it might be more difficult to obtain them in the future? I certainly would not sell and would be hoarding them instead!
If you can't spend bitcoin due to the big Chinese firewall and your too poor to go abroad what are bitcoins worth? You would hoard them but you are referring to a free country. China is not a free country. The people that keep them either (1) can afford to go abroad, Chinese are the most prominent tourists on the planet now, or (2) are banking on other ways of converting them back to fiat, sometime in the future, or (3) just planning to keep them for a very long time  |
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btcrich
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December 22, 2013, 11:59:16 AM
Last edit: December 22, 2013, 12:10:14 PM by btcrich |
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Why would people here in China get rid of their Bitcoins if they feel that it might be more difficult to obtain them in the future? I certainly would not sell and would be hoarding them instead!
If you can't spend bitcoin due to the big Chinese firewall and your too poor to go abroad what are bitcoins worth? You would hoard them but you are referring to a free country. China is not a free country. What empoweoqwj said. Also, I live in China. Firstly, the great China firewall cannot block p2p networks so I will always be able to send and receive Bitcoins. Also, we have access to VPN. Secondly, I can open a bank account abroad in just about any country in the world and wire funds from my account here in China to the offshore account. These government regulations are only a nuisance here. Certainly not a Bitcoin killer. |
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MatTheCat
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December 22, 2013, 01:45:10 PM
Last edit: December 22, 2013, 02:31:43 PM by MatTheCat |
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If you truly believed that you would have been trading the last few days instead of sitting it out.
Most of my play btc went this morning as my sell orders got pinged at 660-670 which I picked up not even 7 hours ago at $570. The rally may have some more legs but I'm betting that it will cycle back down again.
Seems to me from staring at the charts that although BTC China price is lower than MTGOX + BitStamp, China is still somewhat driving the markets. The rallys in China seem to push the mtgox/bitstamp prices up well before I see any movement there. Might be lags in my charts but whenever I see huge buys in china, stamp jumps up pretty shortly after.
With regards to the comments made to me by Evil Panda, I was calling a crash practically on the eve of the Nov $750 - $350...was bearish thereafter, until it became clearly obvious that BTC was coming right back. From this point until just after the double top, I was bullish. I have been bearish from $1000 all the way down, and have been getting trolled all the way down. I am still bearish, I am still getting trolled so I like to point out that generally, I have mostly been right up until now. I can't see the future. I came to my computer expecting BTC to be at around $550, but against all my expectations and against the chart formations (that I was looking at), it was $660. Well I be damned! In most other financial assets, this would be a serious move. In Bitcoin it is a trifling, and for someone with my tolerance for loss and risk, the gains not really worthwhile. When I first started calling ridiculous lows, I was butt hurt. Because of this, I missed out on gains which otherwise would have been obvious to me (they were obvious to me before I lost my nerve on a bearish pennant formation on bounce at sub $500). Until I admitted that to myself, my thinking with regards to Bitcoin was always going to be tainted. I am no longer sour. I have done very well on Bitcoin, I have nothing to cry about. However, as I turned my mind back to Bitcoin with a view to investing further, ready to accept that the bottom was in and to look for good buying opportunities, it became very clear to me that Bitcoin must go much lower, saving for some highly unlikely U-Turn from the Chinese. I have no idea when this will happen but presumably before Jan 2014 is out. I will also not pretend that this 'clarity' came out about as a result of rigorous chart analysis and studying of fundamentals, as the prediction was definitely more of the intuitive sort. Whilst I don't expect my gut instincts to influence anyone else's investment decisions they are certainly going to influence mine. Although China is lower, it is clear that it is still the market maker and why wouldn't it be? Every Bitcoin investor in the world is aware that BTC China represents a massive glut of coins that will/could be hitting an exchange somewhere near you, and soon. What China does is as good a near term indicator as any MACD or RSI, and as always with herd mechanics, the more who believe that this is the case, the truer it will be. |
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Siegfried
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December 22, 2013, 02:56:01 PM |
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The real question is what will happen to the price approaching January 31 2014 - the apparent deadline for RMB withdraws from Chinese exchanges
After that is anyone's guess.. the price will probably take a few hits along the way though as various governments and banks start to take a stance on it
I would hope that buyers and sellers were rational enough to regard this as inevitable and plan accordingly. No doubt it'll make things wobble anyway. I don't think that its very widely known that Chinese investors have been given until Jan 31 to get out of Bitcoin completely. I randomly heard about it in a podcast, but have seen nobody discussing it here much. No matter what buyers and sellers do on our end, we can't stop the potentially tens of thousands of Chinese who may "dump" their coins over the next 45 days. Why wouldn't the Chinese keep their coins, knowing that they won't have a chance to buy them with CNY again? |
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T.Stuart
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December 22, 2013, 03:01:44 PM |
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... From this point until just after the double top, I was bullish.
Man you really have some sixth sense working for you there!  |
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MatTheCat
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December 22, 2013, 04:05:40 PM
Last edit: December 22, 2013, 04:16:53 PM by MatTheCat |
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... From this point until just after the double top, I was bullish.
Man you really have some sixth sense working for you there! Well. I think you shall find that most on here were talking about when Bitcoin was taking out $1500, when I was selling $1100 coin at $1000, in order to have the funds ready for buy-in between $600 - $700, which on this occasion, I caught sweetly. I am not saying that I am some kind of market sage, but compared to the majority on here, I am Warren fkn Buffet. I am going to go and check your post history, but I am pretty sure that you were a 'coming crash denier' when Bitcoin was at around $800, shortly before it plummeted to $380. I wasn't, but I did let the bullshit I read on these pages dampen my near term pessimism towards Bitcoin and aimed too high ($550), costing myself dear. EDIT: FOUND ONE! (actually, I found a lot more than one....but what a difference a day makes eh?) Up until recently I've been quite bearish but seeing all the "strong hands" out there is impressive. And let's be honest, the China news and the bullshit negative propaganda is losing its power rapidly - generally things are looking bright for the future. I'm starting to believe that things are going to keep moving between 700 and 1000 until January, when things push upwards. Are all those waiting for the 450 mark really never going to see their dreams come true?
Given your track record and your present tone, you are making me seriously consider double digit figures in the near future. |
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T.Stuart
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December 22, 2013, 04:31:21 PM |
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Ha ha! I just meant the way you phrased it "bullish until just after the double-top"... sounds obvious, get it?
But if you want to talk seriously about predicting bitcoin price movements... I admit it - it's a fair cop - I'm pretty crap at it!
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MatTheCat
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December 22, 2013, 04:37:55 PM |
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Ha ha! I just meant the way you phrased it "bullish until just after the double-top"... sounds obvious, get it?
But if you want to talk seriously about predicting bitcoin price movements... I admit it - it's a fair cop - I'm pretty crap at it!
Yeah...to me it was obvious. But apparently not to 80% of the 'HODL' phrase using retards on this forum. If you want to go find someone on here with an uncanny ability for pulling Bitcoin predictions out of his dreams n shit like that, go and search for a poster called zukool (or something like that). Bitcoin was charging up towards its first $1200 top when he came out and stated he had dreams where Bitcoin was back trading in $200 range. Sounded inconceivable at the time, but we got pretty close to that already and if William Hill (I assume you are from UK, Scottish even?) were taking bets on Bitcoin prices, I don't think that you would get great odds by betting on Bitcoin to hit $200 range before Jan 2014 is out. |
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DoomDumas
Legendary
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Activity: 1002
Merit: 1000
Bitcoin
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December 23, 2013, 12:11:49 AM |
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Q1 2014
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Lloydie
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December 23, 2013, 12:46:23 AM |
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$300-450 is a good price for china not being able to buy coins.
No offense to India, but I have a handful of friends that live there and I have been told that majority of that country is very poor with a small middle class and a handful of the wealthy. I don't think the majority would put to much into bitcoins.
The rich in India will have a major impact. The poor will do what they can to hang on. |
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BittBurger
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December 23, 2013, 01:40:35 AM |
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$300-450 is a good price for china not being able to buy coins.
No offense to India, but I have a handful of friends that live there and I have been told that majority of that country is very poor with a small middle class and a handful of the wealthy. I don't think the majority would put to much into bitcoins.
The rich in India will have a major impact. The poor will do what they can to hang on. There is nothing stopping 200 million Indians from buying into sub-1 BTC quantities of Bitcoin ... however this will not do a thing to increase its overall price. Because of BTC's nearly infinite divisibility, theoretically an entire country could buy in mBTC's at a price of $650 and the value wouldn't go up even $1 USD. |
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empoweoqwj
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December 23, 2013, 03:28:38 AM |
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$300-450 is a good price for china not being able to buy coins.
No offense to India, but I have a handful of friends that live there and I have been told that majority of that country is very poor with a small middle class and a handful of the wealthy. I don't think the majority would put to much into bitcoins.
The rich in India will have a major impact. The poor will do what they can to hang on. What exchange will the Indian rich use? Is it easy to wire money in and out of India or are their restrictions like China? |
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Lloydie
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December 23, 2013, 03:41:21 AM |
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$300-450 is a good price for china not being able to buy coins.
No offense to India, but I have a handful of friends that live there and I have been told that majority of that country is very poor with a small middle class and a handful of the wealthy. I don't think the majority would put to much into bitcoins.
The rich in India will have a major impact. The poor will do what they can to hang on. What exchange will the Indian rich use? Is it easy to wire money in and out of India or are their restrictions like China? . I don't know much about Indian currency controls. |
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empoweoqwj
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December 23, 2013, 03:53:30 AM |
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$300-450 is a good price for china not being able to buy coins.
No offense to India, but I have a handful of friends that live there and I have been told that majority of that country is very poor with a small middle class and a handful of the wealthy. I don't think the majority would put to much into bitcoins.
The rich in India will have a major impact. The poor will do what they can to hang on. What exchange will the Indian rich use? Is it easy to wire money in and out of India or are their restrictions like China? . I don't know much about Indian currency controls. Thanks. There is certainly plenty of money in the Indian middle classes. Perhaps they will join in on the next "boom". I certainly don't see them causing it. |
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revans
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December 23, 2013, 04:03:19 AM |
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Next month? 2? a year? Speculate here..
Kind of telling that you don't consider the possibility that it may never do so again. |
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empoweoqwj
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December 23, 2013, 04:24:41 AM |
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Next month? 2? a year? Speculate here..
Kind of telling that you don't consider the possibility that it may never do so again. The short history of bitcoin tells us it doesn't take much to set off a "boom". So the chances of it never happening again are highly unlikely. |
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shmadz
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Activity: 1512
Merit: 1000
@theshmadz
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December 23, 2013, 04:52:11 AM |
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To me this feels a lot like it did after the first boom.
price shot up to 30, came back to ten, some people didn't want to believe it was over and it came back to around 15? and then down to 2.
I remember some pretty sobering times while the price just festered in the five dollar range.
Just to put up a guess, I think we are looking forward to an awkwardly long time in the 400-600 range. I would guess we won't see the next "skyrocket" until May 5 2014.
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"You have no moral right to rule us, nor do you possess any methods of enforcement that we have reason to fear." - John Perry Barlow, 1996
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empoweoqwj
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December 23, 2013, 04:58:33 AM |
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To me this feels a lot like it did after the first boom.
price shot up to 30, came back to ten, some people didn't want to believe it was over and it came back to around 15? and then down to 2.
I remember some pretty sobering times while the price just festered in the five dollar range.
Just to put up a guess, I think we are looking forward to an awkwardly long time in the 400-600 range. I would guess we won't see the next "skyrocket" until May 5 2014.
Love the "May 5" bit - got a problem with May 4?  |
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keewee
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Activity: 1025
Merit: 1000
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December 23, 2013, 05:04:38 AM |
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To me this feels a lot like it did after the first boom.
price shot up to 30, came back to ten, some people didn't want to believe it was over and it came back to around 15? and then down to 2.
I remember some pretty sobering times while the price just festered in the five dollar range.
Just to put up a guess, I think we are looking forward to an awkwardly long time in the 400-600 range. I would guess we won't see the next "skyrocket" until May 5 2014.
Love the "May 5" bit - got a problem with May 4? May 5 is Monday |
1keewee2vRp63UWvPBynT55ZYw6SUCKDB
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