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Author Topic: Bearish Bitfinex Sentiment Index almost 1:2  (Read 5593 times)
1Pakis (OP)
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December 23, 2013, 06:57:11 AM
 #1

Has anybody seen that.

I haven't seen that seen I started trading in bitfinex?
Not even the day it hit 400 dollars per bitcoin. I actually made a small trade at 388$(buy).
Is it time to dump hard?

Tips are welcome at this address 18DVZkpSwmejPjekX3QMKvRRtR8Bfx65LN.
GeniuSxBoY
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December 23, 2013, 07:00:56 AM
 #2

How long has it been like that?

Be humble!
1Pakis (OP)
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December 23, 2013, 07:07:32 AM
 #3

How long has it been like that?
Just today.
As I said I haven't seen that since I started trading on bitfinex.
And I check regularly.

Tips are welcome at this address 18DVZkpSwmejPjekX3QMKvRRtR8Bfx65LN.
Alonzo Ewing
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December 23, 2013, 07:09:30 AM
 #4

Has anybody seen that.

I haven't seen that seen I started trading in bitfinex?
Not even the day it hit 400 dollars per bitcoin. I actually made a small trade at 388$(buy).
Is it time to dump hard?

Please clarify:

1. What is the usual range of values for this parameter?

2. The pic says 1:1 whereas your title says 1:2. Which is it?
1Pakis (OP)
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December 23, 2013, 07:10:33 AM
 #5

Almost 1:2
Since august I have seen even 3:1 which is very bullish.
This means that the green bar was 3 times bigger that the red bar.

Tips are welcome at this address 18DVZkpSwmejPjekX3QMKvRRtR8Bfx65LN.
1Pakis (OP)
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December 23, 2013, 07:16:39 AM
 #6

Everybody can open an account at bifinex and watch this index without trading.
It's very interesting.
I just saying I have never seen this index that bearish.


Tips are welcome at this address 18DVZkpSwmejPjekX3QMKvRRtR8Bfx65LN.
Alonzo Ewing
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December 23, 2013, 07:17:09 AM
 #7

Almost 1:2
Since august I have seen even 3:1 which is very bullish.
This means that the green bar was 3 times bigger that the red bar.

So why does the pic say 1:1?
1Pakis (OP)
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December 23, 2013, 07:20:33 AM
 #8

ALMOST 1:2
Look at the bars.
The green bar is ALMOST half the size of the red bar.

Tips are welcome at this address 18DVZkpSwmejPjekX3QMKvRRtR8Bfx65LN.
kinitex
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December 23, 2013, 07:20:41 AM
 #9

Almost 1:2
Since august I have seen even 3:1 which is very bullish.
This means that the green bar was 3 times bigger that the red bar.

So why does the pic say 1:1?

Probably because it rounds down to the nearest number. So it's actually something like 1.90:1 bearish

GeniuSxBoY
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December 23, 2013, 07:21:40 AM
 #10

Everybody can open an account at bifinex and watch this index without trading.
It's very interesting.
I just saying I have never seen this index that bearish.




How closely have you monitored it?

Has it been accurate?

Be humble!
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December 23, 2013, 07:23:44 AM
 #11

Everybody can open an account at bifinex and watch this index without trading.
It's very interesting.
I just saying I have never seen this index that bearish.



https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=129326.0
1Pakis (OP)
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December 23, 2013, 07:25:04 AM
 #12

I wasn't trading at bitfinex by then.
I registered in august 2013.

Tips are welcome at this address 18DVZkpSwmejPjekX3QMKvRRtR8Bfx65LN.
Alonzo Ewing
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December 23, 2013, 07:25:27 AM
 #13

ALMOST 1:2
Look at the bars.
The green bar is ALMOST half the size of the red bar.

I believe you. But I'm wondering why the words and letter say 1:1.

If I understand what you've said, traders at bitfinex are more bearish than you've seen. That, my friend, is bullish.
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December 23, 2013, 07:29:57 AM
 #14

I also watch how the shorts on bitfinex grow - all this is bullish - but maybe not immediately.
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December 23, 2013, 07:43:03 AM
 #15

Has anybody seen that.

I haven't seen that seen I started trading in bitfinex?
Not even the day it hit 400 dollars per bitcoin. I actually made a small trade at 388$(buy).
Is it time to dump hard?

Yes, I see this too but it is in direct contrast to the average loan rates, which have  gone to the moon. A month ago they were at an average of 50-70%. Now they are at an average of 250-500% which is extremely bullish.

There are more shorts now, but not nearly as many as leveraged longs.
TERA
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December 23, 2013, 07:46:59 AM
 #16

How is this indicator calculated?
1Pakis (OP)
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December 23, 2013, 08:06:51 AM
 #17

https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=129326.0

Tips are welcome at this address 18DVZkpSwmejPjekX3QMKvRRtR8Bfx65LN.
1Pakis (OP)
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December 23, 2013, 08:10:32 AM
 #18

Has anybody seen that.

I haven't seen that seen I started trading in bitfinex?
Not even the day it hit 400 dollars per bitcoin. I actually made a small trade at 388$(buy).
Is it time to dump hard?

Yes, I see this too but it is in direct contrast to the average loan rates, which have  gone to the moon. A month ago they were at an average of 50-70%. Now they are at an average of 250-500% which is extremely bullish.

There are more shorts now, but not nearly as many as leveraged longs.
In bitfinex you can short with dollars and leverage up to 4:1.
So you can take a loan and short.
Am I wrong?

Tips are welcome at this address 18DVZkpSwmejPjekX3QMKvRRtR8Bfx65LN.
windjc
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December 23, 2013, 09:05:51 AM
 #19

Has anybody seen that.

I haven't seen that seen I started trading in bitfinex?
Not even the day it hit 400 dollars per bitcoin. I actually made a small trade at 388$(buy).
Is it time to dump hard?

Yes, I see this too but it is in direct contrast to the average loan rates, which have  gone to the moon. A month ago they were at an average of 50-70%. Now they are at an average of 250-500% which is extremely bullish.

There are more shorts now, but not nearly as many as leveraged longs.
In bitfinex you can short with dollars and leverage up to 4:1.
So you can take a loan and short.
Am I wrong?

Well, I could be wrong and please someone correct me if I am, but I thought if you borrowed fiat you had to leverage long and to leverage short you had to borrow BTC - own them to sell them first, then buy them back later.

Is this not correct?  Otherwise if you could go long or short with fiat or BTC, then BTC interest rates wouldn't be 1/5 of the fiat loan interest rates.

Which is why it doesn't make sense with $10 million dollars of fiat loans and only 13k BTC on loan, why the sentiment could be so bearish. Those stats seem to suggest the exact opposite.
notme
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December 23, 2013, 09:09:16 AM
 #20

Has anybody seen that.

I haven't seen that seen I started trading in bitfinex?
Not even the day it hit 400 dollars per bitcoin. I actually made a small trade at 388$(buy).
Is it time to dump hard?

Yes, I see this too but it is in direct contrast to the average loan rates, which have  gone to the moon. A month ago they were at an average of 50-70%. Now they are at an average of 250-500% which is extremely bullish.

There are more shorts now, but not nearly as many as leveraged longs.
In bitfinex you can short with dollars and leverage up to 4:1.
So you can take a loan and short.
Am I wrong?

Well, I could be wrong and please someone correct me if I am, but I thought if you borrowed fiat you had to leverage long and to leverage short you had to borrow BTC - own them to sell them first, then buy them back later.

Is this not correct?  Otherwise if you could go long or short with fiat or BTC, then BTC interest rates wouldn't be 1/5 of the fiat loan interest rates.

Which is why it doesn't make sense with $10 million dollars of fiat loans and only 13k BTC on loan, why the sentiment could be so bearish. Those stats seem to suggest the exact opposite.

If you have the bitcoin already, you can take a "short position" and it will not borrow anything unless you sell more than your btc margin.  The indicator being bearish with only 3.6k (I'm not sure where you are getting 13k, but I see 3.6) btc lent out indicates that much of the bearish sentiment is coming from btc holders rather than people who keep their margin in USD and would need to borrow.

https://www.bitcoin.org/bitcoin.pdf
While no idea is perfect, some ideas are useful.
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