What are the next events to watch that could potentially bring BTC below $500?

[bitbrasil]

What are the next events to watch that could potentially bring BTC below $500?

Let's make some predictions!

[Bono]

What are the next events to watch that could potentially bring BTC below $500?

Let's make some predictions!

Well, let's see...

- Adolf Hitler resurrects and publicly endorses Bitcoin.

- Satoshi reveals that he intends to double the amount of BTC in circulation.

- Some really, really gullible whale reads one of the trollposts here and triggers a massive sell-off.


...

In case you couldn't tell, I'm pretty optimistic about BTC's immediate AND long-term future. With no really impactful negative news on the horizon, I expect modest gains until some cool shit starts happening in early-mid 2014.

[Miles]

Agree with Bono, too many cortices on bitcoin, which will produce new apps and services nobody thought of. Cool and interesting stuff.


Remember that guy who outsourced his job, and his bosses found out and sacked him. I'm thinking he was just ahead of his time. It would be something I'd consider (currently I work behind a computer all day) if it could be done on the fly and anonymously, only bitcoin could pull that off.

[giantdragon]

Critical bug in Bitcoin client or SHA-256 weakness can bring BTC/USD rate to zero.

[empoweoqwj]

Time? 

[ak84]

Weakness in SHA_256 found

Regulation of cryptocurrencies by government.

[Honeypot]

My prediction: False-flag "terrorism" in the US or Europe that is blamed on domestic or Middle-eastern "terrorists" funded with Bitcoin, but actually paid for by the banksters and carried out covertly by the CIA/FBI/NSA/Mossad using patsies. This false-flag event could be an assassination, a "dirty bomb" explosion, or a cyber-attack on internet/financial infrastructure or the power grid. The mainstream media has been laying the groundwork to pin such events on Israel's antagonists in the Middle East for the past several years. One of Israel's antagonists will be blamed, giving Israel and the US a pretext for endless war in Iran/Syria/North Africa. The false-flag terror will also provide the US Govt with a rationale to clamp down on constitutional freedoms, justify continuing NSA total surveillance, and beginning a new war on crypto-currencies.

When a non-expert starts spouting off pseudo intellectual non-sense gleamed from some books and articles, that does FAR more damage to the cause of fighting against actual government conspiracies than any government action could ever hope to do.

This isn't a game. Stop making a scapegoat of the 'guberment' for everything. People who indulge in that type of shit typically have a very selective view of what should be attributed to whom, especially in regards to their own personal obligations.

[Dalmar]

My prediction: False-flag "terrorism" in the US or Europe that is blamed on domestic or Middle-eastern "terrorists" funded with Bitcoin, but actually paid for by the banksters and carried out covertly by the CIA/FBI/NSA/Mossad using patsies. This false-flag event could be an assassination, a "dirty bomb" explosion, or a cyber-attack on internet/financial infrastructure or the power grid. The mainstream media has been laying the groundwork to pin such events on Israel's antagonists in the Middle East for the past several years. One of Israel's antagonists will be blamed, giving Israel and the US a pretext for endless war in Iran/Syria/North Africa. The false-flag terror will also provide the US Govt with a rationale to clamp down on constitutional freedoms, justify continuing NSA total surveillance, and beginning a new war on crypto-currencies.

I think it's way more likely that the NSA is behind bitcoin rather than it starting a witch hunt against it.

Also, we don't need to come up with ludicrous ideas for a sub-500 price. Another China sell-off caused by policy changes and were are easily there again.

[Abdussamad]

I think it's way more likely that the NSA is behind bitcoin rather than it starting a witch hunt against it.

Also, we don't need to come up with ludicrous ideas for a sub-500 price. Another China sell-off caused by policy changes and were are easily there again.

Yeah or a US sell off caused by yet another FinCen "guidance"

[empoweoqwj]

I think it's way more likely that the NSA is behind bitcoin rather than it starting a witch hunt against it.

Also, we don't need to come up with ludicrous ideas for a sub-500 price. Another China sell-off caused by policy changes and were are easily there again.

Yeah or a US sell off caused by yet another FinCen "guidance"

Yep that's possible. But I see a lot more possible "upside" stories. Bitcoin will take off whether or not the States plays ball, big player as it undoubtedly is.

[Ibian]

My prediction: False-flag "terrorism" in the US or Europe that is blamed on domestic or Middle-eastern "terrorists" funded with Bitcoin, but actually paid for by the banksters and carried out covertly by the CIA/FBI/NSA/Mossad using patsies. This false-flag event could be an assassination, a "dirty bomb" explosion, or a cyber-attack on internet/financial infrastructure or the power grid. The mainstream media has been laying the groundwork to pin such events on Israel's antagonists in the Middle East for the past several years. One of Israel's antagonists will be blamed, giving Israel and the US a pretext for endless war in Iran/Syria/North Africa. The false-flag terror will also provide the US Govt with a rationale to clamp down on constitutional freedoms, justify continuing NSA total surveillance, and beginning a new war on crypto-currencies.

When a non-expert starts spouting off pseudo intellectual non-sense gleamed from some books and articles, that does FAR more damage to the cause of fighting against actual government conspiracies than any government action could ever hope to do.

This isn't a game. Stop making a scapegoat of the 'guberment' for everything. People who indulge in that type of shit typically have a very selective view of what should be attributed to whom, especially in regards to their own personal obligations.

'cept the dude is right. The western governments, and especially the US government, really are that cartoonishly villainous at this point. And we need a pretext for invading Iran/Syria, at least one that won't provoke China and Russia into retaliating and triggering WWIII.

And what's an expert anyway nowadays? It's someone who has been indoctrinated, bought off, or has an agenda in almost every case. I have found it far more informative in the past few years to listen to the common internet man while comparing it to the available objective data than to listen to any mainstream experts.

[superresistant]

Does it really matter ?
If you are interested in the mid/long term value of Bitcoin, it can only go up mathematically speaking.

[Honeypot]

My prediction: False-flag "terrorism" in the US or Europe that is blamed on domestic or Middle-eastern "terrorists" funded with Bitcoin, but actually paid for by the banksters and carried out covertly by the CIA/FBI/NSA/Mossad using patsies. This false-flag event could be an assassination, a "dirty bomb" explosion, or a cyber-attack on internet/financial infrastructure or the power grid. The mainstream media has been laying the groundwork to pin such events on Israel's antagonists in the Middle East for the past several years. One of Israel's antagonists will be blamed, giving Israel and the US a pretext for endless war in Iran/Syria/North Africa. The false-flag terror will also provide the US Govt with a rationale to clamp down on constitutional freedoms, justify continuing NSA total surveillance, and beginning a new war on crypto-currencies.

When a non-expert starts spouting off pseudo intellectual non-sense gleamed from some books and articles, that does FAR more damage to the cause of fighting against actual government conspiracies than any government action could ever hope to do.

This isn't a game. Stop making a scapegoat of the 'guberment' for everything. People who indulge in that type of shit typically have a very selective view of what should be attributed to whom, especially in regards to their own personal obligations.

'cept the dude is right. The western governments, and especially the US government, really are that cartoonishly villainous at this point. And we need a pretext for invading Iran/Syria, at least one that won't provoke China and Russia into retaliating and triggering WWIII.

And what's an expert anyway nowadays? It's someone who has been indoctrinated, bought off, or has an agenda in almost every case. I have found it far more informative in the past few years to listen to the common internet man while comparing it to the available objective data than to listen to any mainstream experts.

Let me get this straight: Some fool spouting off about how the other side is all just indoctrinated, bought off, or has an agenda is trying to tell others how he is more 'informed' than others? Why, is playing the contrarian 'revolutionary' the only rationale you need to justify whatever you feel like mouthing off?

Are you sure you are not being cartoonishly naive?

Also, if you want to see 'cartoonish villainy', I suggest actually trying to live under a real tyranny and dictatorship. To come to understand what it means to fear informers and your own family because of 'public security' informers. To truly understand what it means to feel a fear of real torture, not the kind of 'torture' that involves the EBIL government employee trying to get a permission to 'bellyslap' a prisoner.

Wait, are those kinds of villains too much for you to actually take on? Because they couldn't care less what anyone thinks about their 'human rights' and 'civil liberties'?

So instead of real villains, you cowards point fingers and bitch at 1st world governments, laws, and societies whose character you don't even fully understand, never mind fully appreciate. I laugh at each and every one of fools who think Iraq and Afghanistan wars are 'atrocities'. More people died from auto accidents in quarter of the globe in a year, than all the supposed 'indirect civilian' casualties who were too busy killing each other in a festival of sectarian violence and usual warlord behaviors.

Listening to you anti-government fools is really no different than listening to OWS kids.

[Ibian]

My prediction: False-flag "terrorism" in the US or Europe that is blamed on domestic or Middle-eastern "terrorists" funded with Bitcoin, but actually paid for by the banksters and carried out covertly by the CIA/FBI/NSA/Mossad using patsies. This false-flag event could be an assassination, a "dirty bomb" explosion, or a cyber-attack on internet/financial infrastructure or the power grid. The mainstream media has been laying the groundwork to pin such events on Israel's antagonists in the Middle East for the past several years. One of Israel's antagonists will be blamed, giving Israel and the US a pretext for endless war in Iran/Syria/North Africa. The false-flag terror will also provide the US Govt with a rationale to clamp down on constitutional freedoms, justify continuing NSA total surveillance, and beginning a new war on crypto-currencies.

When a non-expert starts spouting off pseudo intellectual non-sense gleamed from some books and articles, that does FAR more damage to the cause of fighting against actual government conspiracies than any government action could ever hope to do.

This isn't a game. Stop making a scapegoat of the 'guberment' for everything. People who indulge in that type of shit typically have a very selective view of what should be attributed to whom, especially in regards to their own personal obligations.

'cept the dude is right. The western governments, and especially the US government, really are that cartoonishly villainous at this point. And we need a pretext for invading Iran/Syria, at least one that won't provoke China and Russia into retaliating and triggering WWIII.

And what's an expert anyway nowadays? It's someone who has been indoctrinated, bought off, or has an agenda in almost every case. I have found it far more informative in the past few years to listen to the common internet man while comparing it to the available objective data than to listen to any mainstream experts.

Let me get this straight: Some fool spouting off about how the other side is all just indoctrinated, bought off, or has an agenda is trying to tell others how he is more 'informed' than others? Why, is playing the contrarian 'revolutionary' the only rationale you need to justify whatever you feel like mouthing off?

Are you sure you are not being cartoonishly naive?

Also, if you want to see 'cartoonish villainy', I suggest actually trying to live under a real tyranny and dictatorship. To come to understand what it means to fear informers and your own family because of 'public security' informers. To truly understand what it means to feel a fear of real torture, not the kind of 'torture' that involves the EBIL government employee trying to get a permission to 'bellyslap' a prisoner.

Wait, are those kinds of villains too much for you to actually take on? Because they couldn't care less what anyone thinks about their 'human rights' and 'civil liberties'?

So instead of real villains, you cowards point fingers and bitch at 1st world governments, laws, and societies whose character you don't even fully understand, never mind fully appreciate. I laugh at each and every one of fools who think Iraq and Afghanistan wars are 'atrocities'. More people died from auto accidents in quarter of the globe in a year, than all the supposed 'indirect civilian' casualties who were too busy killing each other in a festival of sectarian violence and usual warlord behaviors.

Listening to you anti-government fools is really no different than listening to OWS kids.

Prove that he is a fool. Or try again without getting personal. Didn't read your post beyond the first couple words.

[empoweoqwj]

Does it really matter ?
If you are interested in the mid/long term value of Bitcoin, it can only go up mathematically speaking.

Really? Maths is based on proofs. What proof can you offer to guarantee that the price of bitcoin can only go up mid/long term? Never heard of risk?

[superresistant]

Does it really matter ?
If you are interested in the mid/long term value of Bitcoin, it can only go up mathematically speaking.

Really? Maths is based on proofs. What proof can you offer to guarantee that the price of bitcoin can only go up mid/long term? Never heard of risk?

Yes, we know that the price of Bitcoin is very volatile on short/mid term. We've seen it with the China's bubble, I am not denying it.
We also know that nothing will ever stop the greed of the Central Bank and the financial institution so the value of FIAT money will always go down. As time goes on you need more FIAT money to buy the same amount of Bitcoin. Moreover the awareness of Bitcoin increase which increase demand.
So mathematically the price of Bitcoin is going up to infinite on the long term.

[samysamy1]

The posters above are right, the illuminati does exist.

A mere guess:

Number 1 -- The well known false flag attacks, staged by governments and blamed on Muslims and Islam. Sharpening of anti-terrorism legislation, blaming funding from cryptocurrencies and therefore for the safety of all nations they convince people to let it be controlled or they convince people to leave it and use a new cryptocurrency protected by the governments  

Number 2 -- The government will be taxing people (when cashing out to a bank account) or fining businesses (declaring it illegal) for using Bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies  

[empoweoqwj]

Does it really matter ?
If you are interested in the mid/long term value of Bitcoin, it can only go up mathematically speaking.

Really? Maths is based on proofs. What proof can you offer to guarantee that the price of bitcoin can only go up mid/long term? Never heard of risk?

So mathematically the price of Bitcoin is going up to infinite on the long term.

Stop using that word "mathematically" when its not appropriate. Its your opinion that "bitcoin is going up to infinite" (I won't even go into your use of "infinite"), but its not based on maths. Mathematicians write proofs using funny squiggly symbols you know

[black_swan]

What are the next events to watch that could potentially bring BTC below $500?

Now that china is out for a while and fincen is "happy" maybe the EU could spit on bitcoin a little bit
And don't forget satoshi can come back, disgusted by the greedy trend which bitcoin has taken, and sell off all his coins and bring the price down

[nodroids]

My concern is India making more arrests based on the 'evidence' they gathered of those "400 traders making 10000 transactions". That was a clear threat put out through the Indian media. If India needs to ratchet up to defend their capital controls, then look for this. People going to jail just for trading BTC is bearish imo. But also oddly bullish, in that it will prove the central banks are that concerned about their system being so shit that they need to persecute a new technology that is clearly superior.

Great ideas in here though. Even though it's a bit crank pot I don't doubt a false flag event being blamed on bitcoin too too much given the current refrain from the mass media of it being the "currency for crime". So even that idea for below $500 wasn't bad.

Great stuff from the community here on Bitcointalk.org. Thanks so much.