What are the next events to watch that could potentially bring BTC below $500?

[wachtwoord]

Easter and Pentecost. Celebrated. On the same day! 

[empoweoqwj]

My concern is India making more arrests based on the 'evidence' they gathered of those "400 traders making 10000 transactions". That was a clear threat put out through the Indian media. If India needs to ratchet up to defend their capital controls, then look for this. People going to jail just for trading BTC is bearish imo. But also oddly bullish, in that it will prove the central banks are that concerned about their system being so shit that they need to persecute a new technology that is clearly superior.

Great ideas in here though. Even though it's a bit crank pot I don't doubt a false flag event being blamed on bitcoin too too much given the current refrain from the mass media of it being the "currency for crime". So even that idea for below $500 wasn't bad.

Great stuff from the community here on Bitcointalk.org. Thanks so much.

India is India. Every country is different. I don't see many countries arresting people for trading a few bitcoins. Most governments have other more pressing concerns.

[JorgeStolfi]

My concern is India making more arrests

Whether a country will tolerate or ban cryptocurrencies depends on whether it is good or bad for its economy.China and India have already decided that they do not like it at all. Most countries will likely follow suit.

The US presumably still likes bitcoin, assuming that the successful speculators are, on balance, bringing money into the country. But that may change if some bank or other powerful investor gets burned by it. See the Madoff example.

going to jail just for trading BTC is bearish imo. But also oddly bullish, in that it will prove the central banks are that concerned about their system being so shit that they need to persecute a new technology that is clearly superior

Marijuana should be unstoppable since anyone can grow it. Yet the US pressures the whole world to outlaw it.  The same could conceivably happen to cryptocoins.

[alivecrypto]

If this world went back to 100s yearlier mean. In the perior without internet connectivity then it could happen if not bitcoin price will never come down and if come down some dollars or some hundreds it will be temporal for hours or a day.

[wachtwoord]

Time slowly starting to reverse direction. Kind of like that Red Dwarf episode.

[watuba]

a zombie apocalypse  

Actually that might make the price skyrocket or stay the same, who knows in that case yeah?

[ISAWHIM]

More miners being sold and the sellers using auto-convert payment systems that give them currency for the BTC they "claim" to accept. Which just instantly cashes-out BTC for currency, giving them an electronic deposit of currency, for a cut of the selling-price.

More "big holders", looking to expand "the market", who end-up cashing-out large volumes of BTC, (Which is a fraction of what they hold), to buy physical things that will make the remaining holdings they have, more valuable.

Big-shots, looking to buy big-toys, which requires withdrawing for currency. (Since big-toy producers are big, because they are paying taxes and not taking risks on BTC. They already make a killing just selling over-priced things to big-shots.)

Also more thievery, like the last massive viral BTC ransom that happened. Big drops there.

Next price-hike is income-tax time... when many people get returns, which they treat like "investment money", or "play money"... and will be willing to "buy a few coins", just because they can. In hope of it giving them a similar return, like it did the previous years. (Feb-Mar-Apr-May) By January, most know how much they will have to "play with", and some start spending money before the actual return comes.

No new technology worth buying this year... So, I imagine this will be "The year of saving and investments". A boom on all exchanges, including stocks and banks.

P.S. BTC is being added to many "regulated" forex markets, and some unregulated fores exchanges too. By the dozens each week. Those "difficult" exchanges will die-off, because forex trading will be a lot easier to get money in and out from BTC.

[empoweoqwj]

Looking at the technicals, a fall below $500 again is very unlikely, brought on only by some very bad news .... which I can't currently think of.

[nodroids]

Time slowly starting to reverse direction. Kind of like that Red Dwarf episode.

lol, nice one! can I quote you in all the chicken little threads out there?

[mestar]

The cost of one Bitcoin mined finally catches up with the price, and reaches $700 on average.  This means that miners have to sell around $2 million of BTC each day, because they have to pay their electric bills in currencies other than BTC.  This means we need $2 million of daily fresh cash to keep the price at the same level, around $1000.   

Finally, we run out of suckers and BTC easily drops to $500.

See, that wasn't that hard.  In fact, I would even bet on it.

[empoweoqwj]

The cost of one Bitcoin mined finally catches up with the price, and reaches $700 on average.  This means that miners have to sell around $2 million of BTC each day, because they have to pay their electric bills in currencies other than BTC.  This means we need $2 million of daily fresh cash to keep the price at the same level, around $1000.   

You saying it costs $700 to mine a bitcoin???

[mestar]

You saying it costs $700 to mine a bitcoin???

No, I'm saying that some time in the future, my guess would be 3 to 7 months, this event happens:

The cost of one Bitcoin mined finally catches up with the price, and reaches $700 on average.  This means that miners have to sell around $2 million of BTC each day, because they have to pay their electric bills in currencies other than BTC.  This means we need $2 million of daily fresh cash to keep the price at the same level, around $1000.   

[empoweoqwj]

You saying it costs $700 to mine a bitcoin???

No, I'm saying that some time in the future, my guess would be 3 to 7 months, this event happens:

The cost of one Bitcoin mined finally catches up with the price, and reaches $700 on average.  This means that miners have to sell around $2 million of BTC each day, because they have to pay their electric bills in currencies other than BTC.  This means we need $2 million of daily fresh cash to keep the price at the same level, around $1000.  

You'd have to guess a lot of things to estimate the price to mine a coin in 3 to 7 months time. Care to share the calculation?

Also, as *so* many miners will tell you, a lot of them don't pay any electricity charges at all, and I'm not just talking "basement miners" here.

[Dragonkiller]

You saying it costs $700 to mine a bitcoin???

No, I'm saying that some time in the future, my guess would be 3 to 7 months, this event happens:

The cost of one Bitcoin mined finally catches up with the price, and reaches $700 on average.  This means that miners have to sell around $2 million of BTC each day, because they have to pay their electric bills in currencies other than BTC.  This means we need $2 million of daily fresh cash to keep the price at the same level, around $1000.  

why do you think it will catch up? you don't know what the price of bitcoin will be at that time.

[mestar]

You'd have to guess a lot of things to estimate the price to mine a coin in 3 to 7 months time. Care to share the calculation?

There you go:
https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=414657.0

3 to 7 months comes up if you assume the price will stay the same, and difficulty will double each month.  Currently the best mining hardware uses $20 to $100 per Bitcoin in electricity, so we need 10 or 50fold increase in difficulty for it to catch up, and this means 3 to 7 doublings, thus 3 to 7 months.

Also, as *so* many miners will tell you, a lot of them don't pay any electricity charges at all, and I'm not just talking "basement miners" here.

Because, new tech is so much better, and it costs 2% of bitcoin price to mine one bitcoin. So, not much costs in electrical power. And that is exactly the reason why difficulty is increasing in such huge steps right now. 

Mining tech being more efficient does not mean that the network as a whole will use less power.  It means that only there will be more hashes.  Total power used by the network only depends on the bitcoin price, and on the awards given to the miners.

[empoweoqwj]

You'd have to guess a lot of things to estimate the price to mine a coin in 3 to 7 months time. Care to share the calculation?

There you go:
https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=414657.0

3 to 7 months comes up if you assume the price will stay the same, and difficulty will double each month.  Currently the best mining hardware uses $20 to $100 per Bitcoin in electricity, so we need 10 or 50fold increase in difficulty for it to catch up, and this means 3 to 7 doublings, thus 3 to 7 months.

Also, as *so* many miners will tell you, a lot of them don't pay any electricity charges at all, and I'm not just talking "basement miners" here.

Because, new tech is so much better, and it costs 2% of bitcoin price to mine one bitcoin. So, not much costs in electrical power. And that is exactly the reason why difficulty is increasing in such huge steps right now. 

Mining tech being more efficient does not mean that the network as a whole will use less power.  It means that only there will be more hashes.  Total power used by the network only depends on the bitcoin price, and on the awards given to the miners.

OK, thanks for the link. Just read the thread, very thought provoking. So basically what you are saying is anyone pre-ordering ASICs several months in advance better hope the resale price of BTC is well above $700 by then?

[mestar]

No, I'm saying that some time in the future, my guess would be 3 to 7 months, this event happens:

The cost of one Bitcoin mined finally catches up with the price, and reaches $700 on average.  This means that miners have to sell around $2 million of BTC each day, because they have to pay their electric bills in currencies other than BTC.  This means we need $2 million of daily fresh cash to keep the price at the same level, around $1000.  

why do you think it will catch up? you don't know what the price of bitcoin will be at that time.

It will catch up, because, hey, free money. 

This is a very basic economic argument.  New miners will join until it is profitable to do so. 

As for not knowing the future price, you got a point there.   But, if the price stays the same, which was the OP all about, then, 3 to 7 months.   If price falls, perhaps sooner.  If price falls even more, perhaps no catching up will be needed.  If price keeps rising, difficulty will try to catch up, and it could take longer.

But, my argument is all that this electricity cost will put breaks on Bitcoin price, and even if the price rises, the breaks on the price will be stronger and stronger as difficulty rises.

[mestar]

OK, thanks for the link. Just read the thread, very thought provoking. So basically what you are saying is anyone pre-ordering ASICs several months in advance better hope the resale price of BTC is well above $700 by then?

That $700 was made up number as 75% of current price, but his preordering business is one huge mess.  Mining will be a safe bet as long as you have efficient enough hardware, or low price of electricity.  Even in the case of price falling, not all miners will have to stop, only the least efficient ones.

[superresistant]

Does it really matter ?
If you are interested in the mid/long term value of Bitcoin, it can only go up mathematically speaking.

Really? Maths is based on proofs. What proof can you offer to guarantee that the price of bitcoin can only go up mid/long term? Never heard of risk?

So mathematically the price of Bitcoin is going up to infinite on the long term.

Stop using that word "mathematically" when its not appropriate. Its your opinion that "bitcoin is going up to infinite" (I won't even go into your use of "infinite"), but its not based on maths. Mathematicians write proofs using funny squiggly symbols you know

Well talking about infinite... Yes if you consider the fact that any FIAT that you compare Bitcoin with will go down to zero one day.
Bitcoin is going to infinite.

[thaaanos]

Network hashrate increases but difficulty does not?
Miners decide to manipulate difficulty instead of investing in new hardware?