China 31st of January

[Apostata]

I'm in Hong Kong and I think Hong Kong is going to be part of the solution here. Hong Kong will likely adopt a friendlier stance towards crypto currencies and any deposits / withdrawals will be done through exchanges in Hong Kong.

With the Chinese 1 country 2 systems policies, they can test the economic consequences of bitcoin in Hong Kong before deciding to accept it in China.

Thanks for that, it's an interesting point.  Do you think Hong Kong will be more involved with China BTC as a whole (new exchanges pop up there, where mainlanders can exchange fiat for BTC), or just a testing ground as you said?

[Lloydie]

I'm in Hong Kong and I think Hong Kong is going to be part of the solution here. Hong Kong will likely adopt a friendlier stance towards crypto currencies and any deposits / withdrawals will be done through exchanges in Hong Kong.

With the Chinese 1 country 2 systems policies, they can test the economic consequences of bitcoin in Hong Kong before deciding to accept it in China.

BTC China is situated in the Free Trade Economic Zone in Shanghai, which is another version of the "one country two systems" currently working in Macau and Hong Kong.  Theoretically, the Shanghai Free Trade Zone operates by its own rules.  We shall see what happens in practice.

I also believe currency flows between China and HK is porous.  Same could apply to Shanghai FTZ.

[woutersteven]

I'm in Hong Kong and I think Hong Kong is going to be part of the solution here. Hong Kong will likely adopt a friendlier stance towards crypto currencies and any deposits / withdrawals will be done through exchanges in Hong Kong.

With the Chinese 1 country 2 systems policies, they can test the economic consequences of bitcoin in Hong Kong before deciding to accept it in China.

BTC China is situated in the Free Trade Economic Zone in Shanghai, which is another version of the "one country two systems" currently working in Macau and Hong Kong.  Theoretically, the Shanghai Free Trade Zone operates by its own rules.  We shall see what happens in practice.

I also believe currency flows between China and HK is porous.  Same could apply to Shanghai FTZ.

Yes, and there is another in Shenzhen, just across the HK border, there may be developments there as well. I don't think we've heard the last from China just yet.

[Apostata]

If you are choosing option 2 then why did you say this 2 days ago?

"I wasn't aware that there is a large underground industry catering to Chinese who want to send large amounts of RMB to Hong Kong, with fees apparently as low as 0.5%

I guess where there's a will there's a way, when it comes to bitcoin trading in China.  I guess as many suspected trading is just moving underground, for now anyway."

So, two days ago you were option 3 and now you are option 2?  I am now skeptical of you.

Be skeptical all you want, I am merely trying to determine how events could unfold.  As I mentioned in that post 2 days ago, it seems as though they have figured out a way to trade underground, for the time being.  It wouldn't be wise to assume that just because there is a semi-underground workaround that the volume in BTC trading would remain the same as before.  Its like alcohol prohibition back in the 20's; yeah you could still get alcohol, but were the average American people sneaking out to speak easy's every night to get a glass of wine?  Probably not.

[BitThink]

January 31st could be very significant.  If we look at what one credible source, Bloomberg, has said about the new rules in China:

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2013-12-18/btc-china-says-it-can-t-accept-new-deposits-for-bitcoin-trading.html

"Chinese central bank officials told third-party payment service providers to stop offering clearing services to online Bitcoin exchanges, China Business News reported yesterday. The newspaper is affiliated with the Shanghai government,

Companies currently offering services must end them by the Chinese New Year, a weeklong holiday that begins on Jan. 31, the newspaper cited Zhou Jinhuang, deputy director of payment clearance at the People’s Bank of China, as saying at a meeting with more than 10 third-party payment service providers."

Third party payment service providers started by immediately halting deposits to the exchanges. So now the question is, what happens on January 31st to withdrawls?  Quoting the same article:

“The PBOC statement on Dec. 5 was somewhat vague and there is more clarity now,” Zennon Kapron, managing director of financial consultancy Kapronasia, said in an interview yesterday in Shanghai. “The way it’s reading now is that after the Chinese New Year, you won’t be able to get your money off the platforms.”

Think about that.  As of January 31st, you will no longer be able to withdraw money from Chinese BTC exchanges.  Let that sink in for a second. 

When Mt.Gox began having issues with withdrawals, other exchanges simply popped up and filled the void.  This cannot happen in China, since these rules apply to all Chinese exchanges, and there are already restrictions on the flow of money in and out of China.  Sure, BTCChina and other exchanges have found some workarounds, including using vouchers
http://www.reddit.com/r/Bitcoin/comments/1tnf8e/btcchina_adds_a_fundingwithdrawal_option_btcc/ , but that still involves using Chinese Banks, many of which are controlled by the Chinese Government. 

Unless the Government changes their stance, there are a few possible outcomes to all of this, I believe:

1.) This is already built into the price, and those in China who wanted to sell have already, and nothing will happen on January 31st.
2.) The weak hands in China were the ones who sold leading to the recent drop in price. The strategic investors are holding until the price rebounds (already under way), and are going to dump in the weeks before the deadline. China is out.
3.) The weak hands in China were the ones who sold leading to the recent drop in price. The strategic investors will continue to hold, and will move underground to trade Bitcoin. 

I'd love to hear anyone's thoughts, especially those who are in China and can confirm what the sentiment is like now and what people are thinking.  Perhaps there are other scenarios that may play out that I haven't considered.  I personally think that scenario #2 is the most likely, or at least perhaps a combination of #2 and #3.  Even if #3 were to play out, there would still be drastically less people in China willing to go through all the hassle of dealing with vouchers and other potentially shady ways of dealing with bitcoin.  Regardless of which of the 3 scenarios that play out (or another scenario that I have not considered), this will be a "blip" on the radar in the life of Bitcoin.  There is a bright future for crypto and 2014 will be the year that we really see BTC gain momentum.  If we play our cards right, there could be an amazing buying opportunity at the end of January

My 2BTC anyway

It's about 3rd party payment services in the source you quoted. They all have already stopped, much earlier than the proposed deadline 31 Jan. No 3rd party services are used in deposit and withdrawal now.

[Apostata]

It's about 3rd party payment services in the source you quoted. They all have already stopped, much earlier than the proposed deadline 31 Jan. No 3rd party services are used in deposit and withdrawal now.

Really?  Are you saying you cannot withdraw funds form Chinese exchanges now?  Can you provide a source for this? 

[ArticMine]

... The virtual currency became popular, especially on the mainland, because it enabled individuals to get around Beijing's controls on the movement of capital across its national borders - currently limited to a maximum of US$50,000 equivalent without permission from regulators.

"This, I believe, is the fundamental reason why bitcoins rose in price so steeply, and why the Chinese authorities have now acted to outlaw conversions from renminbi to bitcoins and vice-versa," Greenwood said. ...

http://www.scmp.com/business/banking-finance/article/1390224/bitcoin-service-firms-best-investment-not-virtual-currency

The currency control theory, namely the Chinese government is killing the domestic Bitcoin trade to prevent Bitcoin from being used to do an end run around CNY currency controls, makes a lot of sense. My take is that those in China wishing to purchase BTC, will be able to do so through an exchange either outside of China or in one of the special zones such as Hong Kong provided they first get their CNY out of China.

As for those who have BTC in China will they be able to sell outside of China or in one of the special zones such as Hong Kong and repatriate their CNY? Are there any restrictions on how much currency a Chinese resident can import into China?

As for the impact on price my take is say 90% (1) and 10% (3).

[R2Pleasent]

As for those who have BTC in China will they be able to sell outside of China or in one of the special zones such as Hong Kong and repatriate their CNY? Are there any restrictions on how much currency a Chinese resident can import into China?

There are restrictions on both sides.  For the average person, they are relatively equal.

[jasonjm]

the exchanges have always been and it seems will always be the weakness in bitcoin

I am not a bitcoin bull (at all), but I reckon if bitcoin exchanges functioned as well as say your leading trading brokerages, and in every country, bitcoin would be well over $10 000

[Parazyd]

Because of how the vouchers work now, when BTC China removes RMB withdrawal on Jan 31, these transactions should cease.  Never depend on these workarounds in China anyways.  If the government wants to take something down, it will have no problem doing so.

No any source tell us RMB withdrawal will cease after 31 Jan. it's illegal to stop withdrawal actually.

What is the 31st deadline? Does trading cease? Or is that date not actually significant?

No, it's not significant in my opinion, unless there're new updates from the China government.

I thought Chinese new year is 31st Jan...

[BitThink]

It's about 3rd party payment services in the source you quoted. They all have already stopped, much earlier than the proposed deadline 31 Jan. No 3rd party services are used in deposit and withdrawal now.

Really?  Are you saying you cannot withdraw funds form Chinese exchanges now?  Can you provide a source for this? 

You can directly withdraw to your bank accounts, but not through 3rd party payment services any more.

[Apostata]

It's about 3rd party payment services in the source you quoted. They all have already stopped, much earlier than the proposed deadline 31 Jan. No 3rd party services are used in deposit and withdrawal now.

Really?  Are you saying you cannot withdraw funds form Chinese exchanges now?  Can you provide a source for this? 

You can directly withdraw to your bank accounts, but not through 3rd party payment services any more.

I see, thanks for clarifying.  So does that mean as of January 31 you can no longer withdraw at all?

[BitThink]

It's about 3rd party payment services in the source you quoted. They all have already stopped, much earlier than the proposed deadline 31 Jan. No 3rd party services are used in deposit and withdrawal now.

Really?  Are you saying you cannot withdraw funds form Chinese exchanges now?  Can you provide a source for this? 

You can directly withdraw to your bank accounts, but not through 3rd party payment services any more.

I see, thanks for clarifying.  So does that mean as of January 31 you can no longer withdraw at all?

No any reliable source mentioned about this. I think it's not possible to forbid withdrawal via direct bank accounts.

[HairyMaclairy]

Analysis on Reddit

http://www.reddit.com/r/Bitcoin/comments/1tutrc/analysis_of_chinas_change_of_policy_and_the/

[everbox]

What are your guys thoughts on what will happen the week before and off course on the 31st of January? I read multiple articles which claim that trading in bitcoin will come to a complete stop or hold on the 31st of January in China? Or at least in Yuan/BTC  Since OKcoin and BTCChina now found a loophole by funding their site through the use of vouchers I wonder if this way of funding will also be banned by the Chinese central? And if we can expect a dump a week before the 31st of January?

Jan 31 is the last day for 3rd party payment services to stop service. Since now almost all 3rd party payment services have already stopped service, 31 Jan does not have any special meaning in my opinion.

exactly, all 3rd party payment have already stopped service, but China not stop bitcoin trading in Okcoin and BTCChina. 31st of January is China's new year, people will get end-year bonus and buy gifts for family.

[doctor877]

I read somewhere that there was going to be some meeting between btc exchange people and gov at 29 dec. Can someone shred more light to the case?

[aminorex]

the picture would remain incomplete unless one were also to observe the important fact that they made trading in bitcoin a legally recognized lawful activity.

[BitThink]

I read somewhere that there was going to be some meeting between btc exchange people and gov at 29 dec. Can someone shred more light to the case?

I don't think any government staff works on Sundays.

[Parazyd]

I read somewhere that there was going to be some meeting between btc exchange people and gov at 29 dec. Can someone shred more light to the case?

I don't think any government staff works on Sundays.

China is different...
I'd love to know about the meeting too.

[coins101]

As the third party payment service providers have already stopped transacting with BTC China and other exchanges, does anyone know the current trading options in China, other than face-to-face, to exchange BTC for currency?

Bobby Lee and BTC China did a survey a while back and they found that a significant number of people using Bitcoins were highly educated people who saw BTC has a long-term value hold. Are people just going to sit on their bitcoins and wait for them to rise?