Total Hashrate Forecast Q1, Q2 2014 (Community work)

[de_ixie]

Preample
Basically, this thread is a continuation of DeathAndTexas's thread using the scheduled/expected delivery date of all main ASIC players to assemble a somewhat valid forecast of total network hashrate. Personally, I think this is the most appropiate way to do it and I highly appreciate his work. I will also copy the basic design of his thread - it is in good shape and people involved earlier will recognize it fast. I was hoping he would continue updating his thread on a regular basis - this said, I have no intention in stealing anyones idea - I am just interested in a valid hashrate forecast. Mr DeathAndTexas - in case I spit in your soup here - feel free to drop me a PM. Link to original thread -> Original thread

Goal
Produce a hashrate forecast Q1 2014 (31.03) and Q2 2014 (30.06) based on the delivery schedule of main ASIC companies (and other sources!?) for that timeframe by using community knowledge. Starting point is 01.01.2014 with a hashrate of 11 Ph.

Method
A) In case you have an indication/ wild speculation/ backed up source of how much Thash will be released by a specific entity post your estimate in the following format:

Code:

Thash:			  xyz Thash
Origin:			  Random Mining Company
Product:		  Megasuperhasher Batch I
Expected Delivery:	  Until Q1/ Until Q2
Tier:		          Lower/ Mid/ Upper
Source:			  www.xyz.de or own estimate

Reasoning:		  I believe Random Mining Company will drop xyz Thash...in Q1 2014.... due to... blablabla....

B) Any estimate is welcome. In case you want to contradict a statement please behave mannerful and explain why your estimate differs
C) Always try to include a source and a statement about your scenario assumptions 1) Lower tier, 2) Mid tier, 3) Upper tier
D) This thread is not to discuss any specific products in terms of ROI. Whether Miner xyz will break even is offtopic and will be deleted
E) Any post containing unrespectful behavior or other offtopic discussions will be deleted
F) Before posting check out the scam list first! -> Good effort!
G) I am open for any feedback or ideas how to improve our forecast approach. Don't post it here. Leave me a PM.
H) No one can predict the future. Let's try to generate a realistic case. In the end we will most probably have a range of xxx-xxx Thash.

Total Hashrate Forecast Q2 2014
Based on delivery by end of Q2 2014:

Code:

 
Starting Point 01.01.2014					11.000 Thash
	
								Lower	Mid	Upper		Source/ Comment
			
KnC (batch 1, Sold out)						3.600	4.200	4.800		[1]           
KnC (batch 2, Sold out)						3.600	4.200	4.800		[2]
KnC (batch 3, Selling right now)				3.600	4.200	4.800		[3]
KnC (Potential additional Jupiter Batch)			1.200	2.000	2.800		[4]
			
Asicminer (no information on business approach)			2.000	10.000	20.000		[5]
			
Hashfast (Batch "Oct", Sold out)				220	275	330		[6]
Hashfast (Batch "Oct" MPP)					660	825	990		[7]
Hashfast (Batch "Nov/ Dec", Sold out)				1.000	2.000	2.500		[8]
Hashfast (Batch "Nov/ Dec" MPP)					3.000	6.000	7.500		[7]
Hashfast (Batch 3, Sold out)					1.000	1.500	3.000		[8]
Hashfast (Batch 4, Selling right now)				1.000	1.500	3.000		[8]
Hashfast (Batch 5, not open yet)				1.000	1.500	3.000		[8]
Hashfast (Batch 6, not open yet)				1.000	1.500	3.000		[8]
			
Cointerra (Batch 1, Dec, Sould out)				1.000	1.200	1.200		[9]
Cointerra (Batch 2, Jan, Sold out)				1.000	1.200	1.200		[9]
Cointerra (Batch 3, Feb, Sold out)				1.000	1.200	1.200		[10]
Cointerra (Batch 4, March, Sold out)		        	1.000	1.200	1.200		[10]
Cointerra (Batch 5, April, Sold out)			        1.000	1.500	3.000		[10]
Cointerra (Batch 6, May, Selling righ now)			1.000	1.500	3.000		[10]
Cointerra (Batch 7, June, not open yet)				1.000	1.500	3.000		[10]
			
Bitmine ("Until March batch")					3.000	3.500	4.000		[11]
Bitmine ("Follow up batches until Q2")				3.500	4.000	6.000		[12]
			
BFL ("Monarch")							10.000	20.000	40.000		[13]
			
Blackarrow (Batch 1)						800	800	1.200		[14]
Blackarrow (Batch 2)						800	1.000	1.200		[15]
Blackarrow (Batch 3)						800	1.000	1.200		[15]
			
Secret Mining Operation & Others				2.000	5.000	10.000		[16]	
					
Discount for broken gear					-1500	-1.000	-800		[17]

-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Forecast as of 01.07.2014 (raw)			    	        49.280	83.300 137.420

Forecast as of 01.07.2014 (adjusted)		  	        40.000	68.000 170.000

Conclusion, Chances & Sensitivities (Preliminary)
Rather than just posting a number I prefer to lead the discussion based on a range or tier system. For the first draft of this conclusion I introduce the lower, mid and upper tier.

Lower tier:

Should be the number we confidently can assume as the minimum hash rate as of 01.07.2014. Lets have a look - our first drafted numbers show a hash rate of around 50 Ph and represent what would happen in case all major players slightly underdeliver. Honestly, this is high risk, high pressure start up area. Failure & delay will happen. Moreover, I expect at least 1 (2 is more likely) major players (BFL, KnC, Cointerra, Hashfast, Bitmine, Asicminer, Bitfury, Avalon, Blackarrow) to face massive problems in delivery or simply go bust.
Following this - for the first draft - I set Lower tier to ~40 Ph (~5.6b diff)

Upper tier:

Should be the number we confidently can assume as the maximum hash rate as of 01.07.2014. Basically, the maximum hashrate includes the assumption that all major players squeeze their production capacity, produce day and night, never sleep, have a perfect supply chain, find enough people to buy and run their products and never do any management mistakes. We all know this will not happen. I also don't think we will face the "endgame" scenario within the next 6 months, but this graph shows where we will end up assuming customers are ready to buy in a 12 month break-even window.
Following this - although its hard to draft a number - I set Upper tier to ~170 Ph (~23.8b diff)

Mid tier:

Should be the number we use for investment purpose. This is the hard part. Right now we still have a lot of unknown variables in our figures. We need to continue looking for valid sources of the batch sizes of all major players - Most is still speculation right now. This said, assuming that some players will do better than expected and others compensate with massive failure I estimate a hashrate of ~45-90 Ph which means = The network grows around 10 Ph per month starting in January with - given "stable" BC/USD rate - increasing speed for sure.
Following this - for the first draft - I set Mid tier to ~68 Ph (9.5b diff)

First draft - Feel free to discuss this openly with your insights! Still have the gut feeling our Mid tier is too high. I expected something around 7b diff earlier.

Version
- 27.12.2013; start of discussion
- 30.12.2013; first rough draft; removed Q1 FC; set focus to Q2 FC; renamed scenarios to "Lower, Mid, Upper"; draw first conclusion
- 07.01.2013; Hashfast failed to provide, but for now -until clarifiaction of situation - lets keep FC like it is; Some unknown source keeps adding massive hashpower; We have to observe that trend; Next review around end of January; By then, we will have a lot more information for Asicminer, Bitmine, Hashfast, Cointerra etc...

Next Step/ To dos until 07-09.02.2014
- Check batch definition of each vendor - I am not 100% sure whether I did mistakes  (by: Community)
- Check & discuss lower/ mid/ upper figures (by: Community)
- Ongoing search for every tiny bit of information (from mails, forum, vendor hp, IRC, media) to verify our data (by: Community)
- Update tiers & conclusion including aboves findings (by: author)

Sources for forecast data
[1]    https://www.kncminer.com/news/news-69
[2]    https://www.kncminer.com/news/news-72
[3]    https://www.kncminer.com/categories/miners
[4]    https://www.kncminer.com/news/news-73 -> Batch size is pure speculation. Any ideas?
[5]    Statement Friedcat in Asicminer thread on bitcoin.org -> Someone has the link?
[6]    550 Units@ 400-600 -> HF Order Chain information; Speed still not verified
[7]    max. 400% of BJ speed-> Hashfast ToS

[8]    No figure available; Is currently selling batch 4, which is guaranteed to ship by March 31, 2014; Once product is debugged    additional batches will follow for sure

[9]   http://www.coindesk.com/cointerra-cuts-price-of-terraminer-iv-bitcoin-mining-rig/ -> The 2 Ph is Dec and Jan batch???
[10]   No figure availabe; following batch 1; CT is currently selling batch 5; Cointerra has without a doubt massive capacities; any ideas?
[11]   http://www.coindesk.com/bitmine-to-drop-4phs-of-asic-power-onto-bitcoin-network-before-april/

[12]   Pure speculation on basis of production capacity; I read they have capacity of around 50 rigs/ day, 20 working days, 2 TH biggest unit = 2 Ph/ month

[13]   Pure speculation; No one knows right now. Josh claims capacity of 1000/ day, 20 working days, 600 Gh unit = 12 Ph/ month; From the past - Company has reputation of beeing late and overstating its capability. Nevertheless, they already deployed substantial hashing power & future potential should not be underestimated

[14]   http://ecointalk.net/topic/11-prepaying-full-or-50/?p=17
[15]   Any information??? Which batch is selling right now? How many units?
[16]   Cumulation of smaller vendors; hidden Island operations; Start-ups whatever; safety margin
[17]   Broken gear; numbers wild speculation



Let's do this.

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Update 11.02.2014

Finally I found some time to scramble the numbers. We got a lot of new information and developments. I try to cover them all. In case I miss something crucial feel free to give me the hint. In addition - before I start with this - at some point I will surely drop negative/ positive remarks about vendor x or y. This is not to attack/ promote the operation or the people behind it. This is simply the attempt to transfer their behaviour into some viable numbers. Fans of club A or B. Please do not feel judged - try to see this in the right light: We want a solid FC here!

Let's start. First - I want to check what happened between our starting point 01.01.2014 (11 PH) and the last adjustment on 05.02.2014 (18.7 PH). In this period roughly +8/9 PH got added to the network. Our initial guess of 10 PH per month up until July was surprisingly accurate for the first month. We all can agree that no major player in our spreadsheet shipped significant amounts. We saw some Hashfast/ Cointerra units in the wild but major consensus is that they have not started mass production yet.

Conclusion: All added network power originates from the position "Others" in our spreadsheet. Who are the players in here? We hear a few names. Most prominent should be Avalon chips (6 PHs sold), Bitfury, Antminer, 21e something... and maybe a few other hidden projects. Bad news is we have no deeper insights on the developments here. Good news is we dont need all the details to adjust our FC accordingly. It should be clear by now that my initial number of "Others" was WAY, WAY, WAAAAY to low. Given around 8 PH originates from "Others" in January I set FC to approx. 5-10 PH per month from now on only for this position. [1]

Let’s check step by step what our main spreadsheet positions are doing. From top to bottom.

KnC:
Will not deliver any additional Jupiters. Maybe a small batch of upgrade modules which will not have significant effects on the hashrate. They started to build an arctic mega-datacenter on the dark side of the Neptune to cover potential losses for their 20nm customers and move towards cloud based mining in the future. Nevertheless, they claim to have made significant progress on their development. I will only remove the Jupiter position in the spreadsheet and - for now - leave the "Neptune-Batch" position untouched. My feeling is, they either provide the physical Neptune in Q2 (unlikely) or the equivalent in virtual hashpower (more likely). Anyway, this does not impact our FC. I know there are people out there with different opinions about what KnC will do or not do. Still open for discussion here. [2]  

Asicminer:
The quote of 2 to 20 PH for the initial batch of their new chip is still up to date BUT - they also announced to delay their tape-out to mid Feb. I am not an engineer - but my understanding here is: From tapeout to working chip around 60 days (mid April). Then they have to sell their chips, ship it, people need to start developing miners based on their chips and so on..... From observing their thread I also have the strong feeling their management lacks basic customer/ shareholder care, fast decision making and clear strategy. For me these are strong indicators for a delay. Although their chip looks very potent on paper - I just dont see any significant volume from AM in our observed timeframe. This said, AM FC is reduced significantly. [3]

Hashfast:
I guess not much to say here. They messed it up big time. As far as I followed the 1m+ pages in their tread they managed to ship their initial batch without MPP. Don't know whether they started batch 2. Clear is: They have engineering problems, they have court action going on from changing their ToS several times after sale and they suffered BIG reputation damage. Basically, they are out of business or very close. Only a brain dead monkey would buy from them in future. Maybe they recover, maybe not. Big potential to reduce FC. As of now - I will remove batch 5&6 from spreadsheet. Let's wait and see what they will do in Feb/ March to judge further. Maybe they mine with own chips? We simpy do not know. [4]

Cointerra:
These guys were said to have the biggest potential of the new vendors showing up. Solid staff, solid financials and overall profesional appearance. Fact is they are also late on their initial batch. As far as I followed their thread they are still struggeling to ship out their December units. We mainly see some guys shaking hands with the CEO for marketing purpose - no mass volume. Nevertheless, first units appear to be in hand by respected members of the community.
What else? Problems (challenges) with certification, problems with performance of the unit, problems with power consumption, problems with the boards. They have a working product: Yes. They do not have it shipped in masses and clearly under the expected performance. I still think these guys will pull it off and deliver what they promise soon. But I will reduce the FC due to the 20% less performance of the units. [5]

Bitmine:
Hmmm - I clearly have no idea. They are late yes. There seem to be some working chips yes. Do they seem to be profesional enough to ship in large quantities? - maximum chance 50% chance imho. Behaviour from the last 1-2 months: Strong lack of transparency and delaying tactics. They are buying time. Their customer base starts to get nervous. Let's see and wait. FC unchanged. [6]

BFL
Just dont want to comment on these guys. I will keep FC like it is. Next time maybe. Still see significant space for reduction here. The monarch looks like it will turn to molten lava in the second you power it....

blackarrow:
Another company basically predestined to fail. Horrible customer support. Last minute delay from February to MAI for their initial batch. Their chips/ product will be worthless by then. Customers start to jump the sinking ship. Chance of going bust within 6 month: Very high. Just my judgement. Anyway, the shipping volume we have in our spreadsheet is very low. I will let it unchanged this time. Next time we may see a reduction here. Other opinions welcome. [7]

Discount for broken gear:
Guys - we need a solid approach for this one. Do we have an engineer/ expert here who can help out? Some number like "1 out of 100 chips will fail within the first 60 days". Any hint is valuable as I think we need to include and maintain this position. [8]

Punching the number in our spreadsheet we have the following new picture (see below).

Code:

 
Starting Point 01.01.2014					11.000 Thash

+ Ph added							7.700  Thash	(mainly "Others")

Checkpoint I   05.02.2014					18.700 Thash
	
								Lower	Mid	Upper		Source/ Comment
			
KnC (batch 1, Sold out)						3.600	4.200	4.800		[2]           
KnC (batch 2, Sold out)						3.600	4.200	4.800		[2]
KnC (batch 3, Sold out)				                3.600	4.200	4.800		[2]
			
Asicminer (want to sell chips mainly)		       	        2.000	5.000	15.000		[3]
			
Hashfast (Batch "Oct", Sold out)				220	275	330		[4]
Hashfast (Batch "Oct" MPP)					660	825	990		[4]
Hashfast (Batch "Nov/ Dec", Sold out)				1.000	2.000	2.500		[4]
Hashfast (Batch "Nov/ Dec" MPP)					3.000	6.000	7.500		[4]
Hashfast (Batch 3, Sold out)					1.000	1.500	3.000		[4]
Hashfast (Batch 4, Selling right now)				1.000	1.500	3.000		[4]
			
Cointerra (Batch 1, Dec, Sould out)				800	960	960		[5]
Cointerra (Batch 2, Jan, Sold out)				800	960	960		[5]
Cointerra (Batch 3, Feb, Sold out)				800	960	960		[5]
Cointerra (Batch 4, March, Sold out)		        	800	960	2.400		[5]
Cointerra (Batch 5, April, Sold out)			        800	960	2.400		[5]
Cointerra (Batch 6, May, Selling righ now)			800	960	2.400		[5]
Cointerra (Batch 7, June, not open yet)				800	960	2.400		[5]
			
Bitmine ("Until March batch")					3.000	3.500	4.000		[6]
Bitmine ("Follow up batches until Q2")				3.500	4.000	6.000		[6]
			
BFL ("Monarch")							10.000	20.000	40.000		
			
Blackarrow (Batch 1)						800	800	1.200		[7]
Blackarrow (Batch 2)						800	1.000	1.200		[7]
Blackarrow (Batch 3)						800	1.000	1.200		[7]
			
Secret Mining Operation & Others				25.000	37.500	50.000	        [1]		
					
Discount for broken gear					-1500	-1.000	-800		[8]

-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Forecast as of 01.07.2014 (raw)			    	        86.380	121.920 180.700

Forecast as of 01.07.2014 (adjusted)		  	        50.000	95.000 170.000

Now the hard part. Setting a new mid-Tier forecast value. In comparison to our first shot we have two major developments that need to be adressed.

A) Massive new hash power from various known and unknown sources (7.7 PH alone in January)
B) Basically all major new vendors are late, struggling or close to bust

Conclusion: Mainly based on the massive amount of hashing power added by various forces which is partly but not completely compensated by negative vendor behaviour - I will increase the Forecast by +27 PH to 95.000 Thash (13.3b diff) as of 01.07.2014. Basically I estimate we will see roughly 10-15 PH added to the network from now on until July.

Next update will be after 3-5 jumps with new basis or in case something major happens.

Thanks for following and providing valuable information!


Sources:
[1] No obvious major vendor shipped between 01.01.2014 and 05.02.2014. Roughly 8 PH got added simply from "Other" sources
[2] https://www.kncminer.com/news
[3] Following https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=99497.17502
[4] Following https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=262052.0
[5] Following https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=269093.0
[6] Following https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=291141.1280
[7] Following https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=294197.0
[8] No source yet. Any ideas welcome

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Update 07.04.2014

Final Words and Closing

Everybody, this is my last update on this thread. I am quite bound in different other tasks and will not have the time to observe, analyze and comment all current trends in detail anymore. This is unfortunate but sloppy analysis due to time pressure is below my standards, so I better quit to not give any false predictions  - Thank you everybody for your inputs and useful hints. Feel free to continue the thread or overtake.

This said, it doesnt mean I completely abandon our forecast of ~95 PH by end of June 2014. In contrary, I think it is still very viable even without looking forward on the last three months of the observed timeframe.

Why? Our last datapoint is from Feb 05 2014 with a hashrate of 18.8 PH and last jump is from Apr 05 2014 with 43.8 PH which means 2 month account for roughly 25 PH. In our last forecast update we predicted 10-15 PH per month until July. Looking on the last two months isolated our prediction was quite accurate until now and I dont see any game changing reasons.    

Right now we have different trends that slow down and reduce the PHs added (low BC price, MTGox damage, massive delays of basically all major vendors, rising energy expenses), but also compensating effects which speed up the growth (mainly new vendors popping up every day, lower hardware prices, massive datacenters etc...). This all evens out somehow and adds up to something between 10-15 PH per month for the next 3 months.

With big caution - final prediction: 90-100 PH by end of June 2014.

Cheers & I am out

[Clayce]

reserved

[andjo327]

Great thread! I have been looking for this. Just using 30% diff change is not realistic in the long run and probable not in this timeframe either.

Let me start with some easy ones:

Thash:         4200 Thash
Origin:              KnCMiner
Product:              Neptune Batch I (customers only)
Expected Delivery:   Until Q2
Scanario:              Realistic
Source:              https://www.kncminer.com/categories/miners
Reasoning:      Probable going to be shipping early Q2 (since they expect to ship all three batches before end of Q2. They have sold 1200 with a low estimate of 3Thash so let's assume they run at 3.5Thash. 1200*3.5 = 4200.

Thash:         4200 Thash
Origin:              KnCMiner
Product:              Neptune Batch I (new customers)
Expected Delivery:   Until Q2
Scanario:              Realistic
Source:              https://www.kncminer.com/categories/miners
Reasoning:      Same reasoning as above.

Thash:         4200 Thash
Origin:              KnCMiner
Product:              Neptune Batch II
Expected Delivery:   Until Q2
Scanario:              Realistic
Source:              https://www.kncminer.com/categories/miners
Reasoning:      Same reasoning as above plus I assume that they will eventually be sold out.

[Grix]

ASICMINER has said that their next gen hardware total deployment will be somewhere between 2 to 20 PHps. So not much help there. I think 10-15 Phps is most likely.

In fact I've used 15 Phps from all major companies in H1 2014, in my calculations. If that's accurate (which it probably isn't), the difficulty should be about 10 billion by summer. After that I think the difficulty will plateau.

[darcimer]

You can use this or not use it, none of this is new info, and I can't provide proof for any of these figures, except for the fact that the information is claimed to be derived from D&T's thread https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=283820.0  and used in this spreadsheet here
https://docs.google.com/spreadsheet/ccc?key=0AqGoWjATRQK6dE1yTHpydkIwajhhUGF4ZGxFV2FDSVE&usp=sharing#gid=0
Which I can not validate except for cross referencing the two links.  I was hoping it might be a good addition to the starting point.

Thash:         2880 Thash
Origin:              Hashfast
Product:              BabyJets
Expected Delivery:   Nov and Dec batches (1000 each plus 880 MPP or reserve)
Scenario:              Maybe just late
Source:              Above- Same source for all- supposedly from https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=283820.0 but could not verify all
Reasoning: Very late already, refunds due if they don't meet Dec 31 shipping, speculation that HF BJ's are already on the network at Eligius

Thash:         5500 Thash
Origin:              Cointerra
Product:              Terraminers
Expected Delivery:   Dec, Jan, Feb, March, April  batches(1000, 1500, 1000, 1000,1000)
Scenario:              Maybe late too, that's alot of work
Source:              Above- Same source for all- supposedly from https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=283820.0 but could not verify all
Reasoning: rumblings about chip delays

Thash:         1800 Thash
Origin:              BFL
Product:              Monarch
Expected Delivery:   Feb, Feb, March (600 each)
Scenario:              Maybe late- Reputation for being late
Source:              Above- Same source for all- supposedly from https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=283820.0 but could not verify all
Reasoning:

Thash:         4000 Thash
Origin:              Bitmine
Product:              Coincraft Desk and Rig
Expected Delivery:   March 2 batches(2000 each, possibly 3900 )
Scenario:              Realistic, currently shipping Antminers
Source:              Above- Same source for all-  https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=283820.0 but could not verify all
Reasoning:

Thash:         1000 Thash- a guess? Needs more info
Origin:              Blackarrow
Product:              Prospero x-1 and x-3, also minion rental, cloudhashing
Expected Delivery:   Feb, March, maybe April too- claim to be all batch 1
Scenario:              No confirmation of how many units they pre-sold or plan to ship
Source:              Above- Same source for all-  https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=283820.0 but could not verify all
Reasoning: Can't find any supporting evidence to this one, but have an active reseller here, and appear to be still taking orders, so 1000 sounds kinda low. Maybe they can give us a hint.

[Coinkle]

I'm so glad this thread was moved and continued.
Thanks de_ixie, great move.

[Coinkle]

@cloudhashing preparing to open mining facility near Dallas, with over $3 million in machines produced @cointerra
http://tinyurl.com/l7pybor

I tweeted this recently after reading an article by @zerohedge

3million purchase from Cointerra by Emmanuel Abiodun of CloudHashing & the Icelandic BTC Compound accounts for 500 machines... Not sure which batch. My guess is early.

[Puppet]

Many of your numbers are way too low.
First of all, AFAIK cointerra is making batches of >2PH each. At least their first, december batch was 2PH and I would expect subsequent batches to be larger, not smaller.

600 Monarchs per month is laughably low. BFL being BFL, its anyone's guess when they will ship, but when they do, their volumes are likely  >10x that.  Josh is on record saying they expect to be able to assemble over 1000 Monarchs per day. If their order books only had 2 or 3 days worth of production, do you really think they wouldnt drop prices? Just from undelivered 65nm orders that were converted in to Monarchs or cloudhosting I would expect several thousand units at the very least.

Anyway, while I appreciate the effort, the result isnt going to be worth the effort. These companies arent telling us how much they will produce, because those numbers hurt their sales. Expect them to understate their capacity if they even say anything at all.

[andjo327]

Puppet of course these numbers will be off but I think it would be worth the effort just to get the right order of magnitude. I would say the different views people posting here have of total hashrate in july differs from 20PH to 2000PH. We must be able to close that range a little bit.
Even if the conclusion is something like 100PH to 300PH (could be something different) I think it would have been worth the effort.

Cointerra is to low. I remember reading somewhere that they have batches of 1000, could it just be that darcimer's posting just is the number of units not the hashrate, meaning we double the numbers.

Regarding BFL, are volumes of >10x (18000 units) really realistic? This is question not a statement. Even if Josh thinks he can produce and sell 1000 monarcs every day, there must be a more realistic number for us to close the range between 20PH and 2000PH i july. One assumption could be that BFL will only be able to push on half hashing power of KnCminer before Q2 and set BFL to something like 7500PH TH in Q2. I might be completly off here. Discuss.

[Puppet]

Puppet of course these numbers will be off but I think it would be worth the effort just to get the right order of magnitude. I would say the different views people posting here have of total hashrate in july differs from 20PH to 2000PH. We must be able to close that range a little bit.
Even if the conclusion is something like 100PH to 300PH (could be something different) I think it would have been worth the effort.

Cointerra is to low. I remember reading somewhere that they have batches of 1000, could it just be that darcimer's posting just is the number of units not the hashrate, meaning we double the numbers.

Regarding BFL, are volumes of >10x (18000 units) really realistic? This is question not a statement. Even if Josh thinks he can produce and sell 1000 monarcs every day, there must be a more realistic number for us to close the range between 20PH and 2000PH i july. One assumption could be that BFL will only be able to push on half hashing power of KnCminer before Q2 and set BFL to something like 7500PH TH in Q2. I might be completly off here. Discuss.

BFL are infamous for overpromising, Im not going to bet on when they will deliver, I would never order from them, but the reality is also that its now a 100+ employee company (Knc is what, 10 employees?) that has been raking in preorders for an eternity now and have been shipping close to 1000 miners per day recently. Miners that are more complex to manufacture and assemble than Monarch. Considering they have not yet dropped their price one penny, I suspect they are not short on orders.

As for the combined network hashrate, IMO a better way to estimate it is simply looking at the profitability. As long as mining is substantially more profitable than it costs in electricity, the hashrate will go up as fast as all vendors combined can deliver. At todays BTC price, and assuming ~$0.1-0.2/KWH that means a race towards 500- 1000 PH. Anyone who thinks we will be at 20PH next July is smoking some weird stuff.

Here is a chart:

[andjo327]

BFL are infamous for overpromising, Im not going to bet on when they will deliver, I would never order from them, but the reality is also that its now a 100+ employee company (Knc is what, 10 employees?) that has been raking in preorders for an eternity now and have been shipping close to 1000 miners per day recently. Miners that are more complex to manufacture and assemble than Monarch. Considering they have not yet dropped their price one penny, I suspect they are not short on orders.

As for the combined network hashrate, IMO a better way to estimate it is simply looking at the profitability. As long as mining is substantially more profitable than it costs in electricity, the hashrate will go up as fast as all vendors combined can deliver. At todays BTC price, and assuming ~$0.1-0.2/KWH that means a race towards 500- 1000 PH. Anyone who thinks we will be at 20PH next July is smoking some weird stuff.

Yes 20PH next July is smoking some weird stuff but so is 2000PH i guess.

I don't think the end game calculation will be a good prediction for the next 6 months. But it is interesting. But I guess you need to include the price end game for bitcoin also in that calculation. I also believe that the end game of mining will be mining companies with employees wanting pay, stockholder wanting dividents, replacement cost of equipment etc... so I electricity won't be the only cost it must cover, but it will of course be the largest one. 

I believe that in a 6 months timeframe estimation of production capacity and the current orderbooks will propably give the best estimate. I could be wrong of course.

But back to BFL is there any information, excluding from Josh who I think might over promise a bit, of how large their orderbook is and how large their production capacity will be when/if they start delivering. Is there any past estimation before the conversion to Monarchs?

[Puppet]

I don't think the end game calculation will be a good prediction for the next 6 months. But it is interesting.

I agree we wont reach the "end game" equilibrium in 6 months, it will take much longer to get close to it, but when you see how far we are from that equilibrium, then you must realize that only brake on network growth is manufacturing capability. And its hard to see just how limited production capacity will be 6 months from here, taking in to account fabs have virtually unlimited production capacity and there are plenty of high volume assembly houses that are starving for business with the decline in PC sales. Perhaps the most realistic limiting factor will be datacenter availability.

But I guess you need to include the price end game for bitcoin also in that calculation.

Yes, but no one knows what that will be. First time I ran the above numbers, I assumed a bitcoin price of $200. Its now almost 4x that, and as a result, you pretty much get 4x higher numbers. If you think bitcoin will go further up, just multiply (or divide) the numbers in the chart accordingly.

I believe that in a 6 months timeframe estimation of production capacity and the current orderbooks will propably give the best estimate. I could be wrong of course.

Problem is that we have no solid data for that and no source that doesnt have an incentive to understate the numbers.

But back to BFL is there any information, excluding from Josh who I think might over promise a bit, of how large their orderbook is and how large their production capacity will be when/if they start delivering. Is there any past estimation before the conversion to Monarchs?

My brother read an article in a semicon magazine about BFL. Unfortunately I cant find it. He said the article mentioned BFL had (pre)sold $180M worth of bitcoin asics. That was 2 months or so ago. BFL sold their 65nm gear for around $50 per GH. That would work out to 9PH. Thats roughly twice the hashrate I believe they could be responsible for today. Which leads me to conclude about half of that sales number is for yet to be delivered 28nm gear. So around $90M.  At $7.8/GH thats 11 PH. Lots of assumptions, but its a ballpark number, at least for their order books 2 months ago, before the bitcoin boom. Id feel comfortable doubling that number today.

[andjo327]

Datacenter availability, that's an interesting tought.
I agree with your post and we don't have any solid data so this is all going to be guesses of some sort.
22PH for BFL in Q2 could be a good guess (on the safe side I hope).

Do anyone have any ideas about Black Arrow? I read somewhere their first batch was going to be 8000 units, sounded like a lot of units/preorders to me at least if that meant the number for X-3 since I think they are now on batch 2. Anyway that's 16PH in Q1 if all is going according to plan. And maybe another 16PH for Q2 for batch 2. But I have no source for this.

[Puppet]

About BA:
"We plan to manufacture 8000 ASICs in the first batch (800 Thash)."
http://ecointalk.net/topic/11-prepaying-full-or-50/?p=17

[andjo327]

800TH, that was much much lower than I expected. Could it be a case of understating the numbers?

[Puppet]

800TH, that was much much lower than I expected. Could it be a case of understating the numbers?

Its possible, though if I were to guess, Id say they are honest. BA is not a large company, they were the last vendor to announce their (28nm)  product, and as result had a tough time, certainly  initially, getting a meaningful amount of orders. I always  suspected they were one of the few companies with a realistic delivery schedule, but most miners got fooled by BFL, HF & Co who promised them delivery so much sooner.

ANyway, now that HF has fallen from grace, CT sold out for months, I do get the impression BA sales have picked up substantially recently, so maybe they will aim a bit higher for subsequent batches. Whether that will make them a player that needs to be counted with in the overall picture, I dunno.

[KonstantinosM]

This is pretty insignificant. Preamble is misspelled on the OP.  It just bugs me.

[darcimer]

Something to consider, if the total hash is 10 phs, and it doubles, effectively doubling difficulty, what % of the first 10 phs gets turned off?  Once the old equipment breaks even, it's house money, and I suspect only breakage or electricity>btc will be the only reason to decommission.  So does it all stay on for 2014? Or does much of it become too expensive?

[Puppet]

Something to consider, if the total hash is 10 phs, and it doubles, effectively doubling difficulty, what % of the first 10 phs gets turned off?  

Only that part which is no longer operationally profitable, ie costs more in electricity than it generates in mining. Very few, if any, asics would become operationally unprofitable in a 20PH network, unless your electricity costs are  high, or BTC value tumbles. Maybe some obsolete first gen Asicminer/avalon gear, which by then would form an insignificant percentage of the network. En even then, rather than being shut down, I suspect most owners will either continue operating at a loss or sell their gear to someone with cheaper electricity (or poor math skills).

[nodroids]

Ya, but it seems clear we're not talking about a 20 ph network, but like 45 ph/s minimum just by April!?

Buy BTC in tripple digits while you can! Backing up the truck. Miners! Really?! Just can't help yourselves. And thanks for raising the value of my BTC!