Total Hashrate Forecast Q1, Q2 2014 (Community work)

[baddw]

This article has a little more info on the KNC farm:

http://www.datacenterknowledge.com/archives/2014/02/06/bitcoin-miners-building-10-megawatt-data-center-sweden/

So, 10 megawatts, using very rough numbers of 1000 watts per KNC Jupiter, then something like 600 GH/s per Jupiter, this is in the ballpark of 6 PH/s? Someone check my math.

10 MW = 10,000 kW = 10,000 Jupiters * 600 GH/s/Jupiter = 6,000,000 GH/s = 6 PH/s.

[1714861113]

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[1714861113]

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[Anddos]

now the hashrate just hit 22m ph,its rapidly increasing now
http://bitcoinwisdom.com/bitcoin/difficulty

[BuildTheFuture]

ASICMiner further comments from board meeting:

https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=99497.msg5025133#msg5025133

We'll have to see if that total hashrate shipping comment stands or is revised. But apparently he is saying for the total Gen3 chip sales for the rest of this year, it could be in the range of 400 PH/s to 1600 PH/s. I guess we need to start tossing around exahash/s estimates when we do Q3/Q4 spreadsheet.

[BuildTheFuture]

Example of additional Bitfury chips sold to 3rd parties coming online next month:

(200+ TH example) https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=452850.0;topicseen

Also Avalon is still around, and has announced a 3rd gen chip to begin sampling in March, so assume that is coming into force in May? Also they mention they have already shipped 6 PH/s of their 2nd gen chips and have increased production:

http://avalon-asics.com/happy-chinese-new-year/

Things like these are how the overall hash rate increases even when the other entities on the current spreadsheet aren't shipping currently.

[de_ixie]

OP update - Thanks for the ongoing effort

[EricKennedy]

Thank you for the update. Very informative.

You factor broken gear, but what about decommissioned hardware ?
When difficulty will go up, old hardware (1-100Gh/s) will eventualy be sent to the trash.
It may amount to 1-5 Phs.

I doubt they'll hash forever, even if some people have access to free power.

Eric

[de_ixie]

Thank you for the update. Very informative.

You factor broken gear, but what about decommissioned hardware ?
When difficulty will go up, old hardware (1-100Gh/s) will eventualy be sent to the trash.
It may amount to 1-5 Phs.

I doubt they'll hash forever, even if some people have access to free power.

Eric

I am remember someone calculatiing that at current BC pricetag even the least energy efficient asics out there are still profitable until multiple b difficulty. If this is true people will not turn them off. Would be glad in case someone could dig this out. Will also keep my eyes open on that point

[BuildTheFuture]

Sometime before my gear reaches its efficiency limit I plan to sell it off. There's always folks out there with access to free electricity who will buy it.

[BuildTheFuture]

Video/photos of KNC's new farm:

http://www.gp.se/nyheter/sverige/1.2276893-datorhall-for-bitcoin-byggs-i-boden

http://imgur.com/a/jzT5E

The good news is part of it is already up and running, so likely one of those big Eligius users is KNC, and that is why they keep growing so much. Looks like the rest of this facility could be up and running by end of March? Maybe that's the bad news.

[de_ixie]

Video/photos of KNC's new farm:

http://www.gp.se/nyheter/sverige/1.2276893-datorhall-for-bitcoin-byggs-i-boden

http://imgur.com/a/jzT5E

The good news is part of it is already up and running, so likely one of those big Eligius users is KNC, and that is why they keep growing so much. Looks like the rest of this facility could be up and running by end of March? Maybe that's the bad news.

Good point - highly likely the top two eligius contributers (~2 PH) are KnC

[baddw]

Video/photos of KNC's new farm:

http://www.gp.se/nyheter/sverige/1.2276893-datorhall-for-bitcoin-byggs-i-boden

http://imgur.com/a/jzT5E

The good news is part of it is already up and running, so likely one of those big Eligius users is KNC, and that is why they keep growing so much. Looks like the rest of this facility could be up and running by end of March? Maybe that's the bad news.

Good point - highly likely the top two eligius contributers (~2 PH) are KnC

People were claiming that the 2nd one (1Nbq) was Bitmain / Antminer.  They've been a heavy hitter in Eligius for a longer period, a few weeks at least, and they ramped up from ~500TH.  The 1st one (1A73) just hit within the last week.

[ujka]

I remember I read about that - 1Nbq beeing Bitmain, started deploying december 6th,
1A73 started february 5th, and 7 days later was at 1 THash.

[BuildTheFuture]

I don't think Bitmain is at Eligius... couple reasons. 1, when you get an antminer from them it always has their default pool settings still in it from their "testing". It looks like they have their own pool probably. 2, they recently sold off a big chunk of their farm when they sold several thousand units in the past month, yet that Eligius user keeps growing.

[BuildTheFuture]

KNC has opened up ordering on another 1000 Neptune units:

https://www.kncminer.com/news/news-76

edit: some speculation that most or all of this is due to current customer canceled orders, so it may be a wash in terms of extra hashrate.

[Aexcu]

I don't think Bitmain is at Eligius... couple reasons. 1, when you get an antminer from them it always has their default pool settings still in it from their "testing". It looks like they have their own pool probably. 2, they recently sold off a big chunk of their farm when they sold several thousand units in the past month, yet that Eligius user keeps growing.

It's true that they've been claimed to be that Eligius address, however they are currently (also?!) mining in BTCGuild -> AntMiner -> 353,536.97 GH/s.

[BuildTheFuture]

ASICMiner gen 3 hardware pre-sales may be starting:

https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=99497.msg5153058#msg5153058

~$1800/TH, 600 watts/TH, due by Apr 20th.

[Aexcu]

It's true that they've been claimed to be that Eligius address, however they are currently (also?!) mining in BTCGuild -> AntMiner -> 353,536.97 GH/s.

It seems that the AntMiner team is running at 969,515.18 GH/s now (ID 431 474).

[MANofthePEOPLE]

With all the Chinese miners at 1TH that have hit the forums lately coming out march/april it seems close to impossible to actually track and make any decent estimates? Who knows how much they will deliver

[BuildTheFuture]

hashfast selling 2 TH version of Sierra due in April

http://hashfast.com/shop/sierraevo/

[ssbn506]

Thank you for the update. Very informative.

You factor broken gear, but what about decommissioned hardware ?
When difficulty will go up, old hardware (1-100Gh/s) will eventualy be sent to the trash.
It may amount to 1-5 Phs.

I doubt they'll hash forever, even if some people have access to free power.

Eric

I think by the time hardware is decommissioned it will be so small as to not be noticed. For example if you try to find when cup mining stopped or gpu mining stopped. If everyone turned off their 300kh usb keys difficult will go up by 25% vs 25.3% next change. When 10gh blades are turned off it will be and increase of 25% vs 26% at next difficulty ect.