Bitcoin breaking April's $250 ATH is very unlikely imo, we will need some major negative news (like an american ban, which seems more and more unlikely with latest developments)
$250 is not going to happen. $450 is right on when looking at the past.
American ban is not going to happen. Quite the opposite is happening and there is absolutely no reason why it will stop.
Like almost everyone else on here, you are simply talking your book.
With Bitcoin, everything is possible. This has been proven on upside and downside many times already. U think that the only extremes to come are upside extremes? If I had your confidence, I would be going all in....but I don't. So I won't.
I prefer to call it putting my money where my mouth is
If I thought the 3rd leg down was still going to happen I would be waiting still. I am invested now because I believe it is the right moment to be so. Time will tell whether I am right or wrong.
Actually
so far not everything is possible with Bitcoin, including the important point that after a bubble the price is left very significantly higher than it was in the run up, the lowest drop after the pop doesn't touch the run up price either, etc.
Of course I am basing my predictions on past performance - it is an important indicator and you have to start somewhere when trying to work out what is possible and what is not. I also try to take into account what's going on practically speaking such as adoption, government responses, etc. When I say that there is no reason for the positive momentum with the government in America to stop it's because I can't see one. Perhaps you could give me a good reason why you think America will ban Bitcoin? I haven't discovered one anywhere.
Can I ask in relation to looking at the historical charts, can't you see that $450 as a low is at least a reasonable proposition this time? Yes there will be swings up and down but can't you see that $750 is also a reasonable price at the moment? I'm talking about trying to read the mid to long term market of a couple of months to a couple of years, not trying to day trade a crash based on chance news.
If I may say I think you might be having a problem understanding Bitcoin's growth rate. I know the prices are jumping like mad but one of the earlier bubbles was far more extreme (it was just in dollars not 100s of dollars). My advice - and of course you are completely free to ignore it if you wish - is not to base your assessment on the linear price but to look at the logarithmic charts, to do some research about how many people may start using Bitcoin in some way or another next year, and to make a plan from now until the end of 2014 that involves one simple purchase and no day trading. You will have a good chance of success.
