Your thoughts on when BTC will reach $1000 again?

[T.Stuart]

My quote was essentially this.  Give it three years.  Bitcoin will be $10 or $5,000+ a coin.

Three years is much too slow for Bitcoin!   

[segeln]

Three years is much too slow for Bitcoin!   

@T.Stuart
I have to agree again !

[empoweoqwj]

I want to hear your thoughts on when btc will reach 1000 bucks again, feel free to share.

Here is a chart I made on December 17th. Before BTC fell below 500 the following day.

According to my observations it could be anywhere between mid January and June 2014.  Unless we hit another bull market, then it could take only a couple days. If that happens we maybe headed back to the moon. 

Seems like a reasonable chart. But a chart that says we will hit $1000 again between January and June doesn't really tell me I couldn't guess anyway

[skivrmt]

I want to hear your thoughts on when btc will reach 1000 bucks again, feel free to share.

Here is a chart I made on December 17th. Before BTC fell below 500 the following day.

According to my observations it could be anywhere between mid January and June 2014.  Unless we hit another bull market, then it could take only a couple days. If that happens we maybe headed back to the moon. 

Seems like a reasonable chart. But a chart that says we will hit $1000 again between January and June doesn't really tell me I couldn't guess anyway

How did you come to your conclusions for the chart? Is it based on resistance and support levels or basically just random "angles" for the lines?

[MrPalmer]

I have a feeling we'll see this $750 range for a while - a few months - and a strong $1000+ before next summer.  That'll grow as more retailers come on board, until finally it pops and either bottoms out, or explodes to the 40k+ we're all hoping for!

[matt608]

I'm surprised by the bearishness here.  I have 80% confidence that by half way through 2014 bitcoin will be over $1500 and lets call it 65% confidence it will be over $2000 half way through the year, and 30% confidence it will be over $3000 at half way.  By the end of 2014 I expect the price to be between $5000-$10000.

[flynn]

Someone posted this link earlier



Best analysis to me so far.

[Dr Bloggood]

Question to anyone: What would be the most accurate way to judge BTC volume?

There's a lot of different sites out there to see the volumes on each exchange.  I like and use : http://bitcoincharts.com/markets/  It's fairly simple but does a nice job showing most of the major exchanges in the world.

Shows the 30 day avg price volume etc and also the 24 hour price avg volume etc.  You can see, for example, Stamps 30day vol is 956k, or basically avg of 31k per day for the last 30 days.  Last 24 hour is only 8.8k.

Awesome, thanks a bunch!

[Dr Bloggood]

My quote was essentially this.  Give it three years.  Bitcoin will be $10 or $5,000+ a coin.

Three years is much too slow for Bitcoin!   

Yes, three years is much to slow for BTC.

This will probably happen in 6-12 months.

[T.Stuart]

Question to anyone: What would be the most accurate way to judge BTC volume?

There's a lot of different sites out there to see the volumes on each exchange.  I like and use : http://bitcoincharts.com/markets/  It's fairly simple but does a nice job showing most of the major exchanges in the world.

Shows the 30 day avg price volume etc and also the 24 hour price avg volume etc.  You can see, for example, Stamps 30day vol is 956k, or basically avg of 31k per day for the last 30 days.  Last 24 hour is only 8.8k.

Remember to look at volumes before the bubble though, and then during the previous bubble and before that also, to give an idea of changes as time goes by and prices change etc.

[Dr Bloggood]

Question to anyone: What would be the most accurate way to judge BTC volume?

There's a lot of different sites out there to see the volumes on each exchange.  I like and use : http://bitcoincharts.com/markets/  It's fairly simple but does a nice job showing most of the major exchanges in the world.

Shows the 30 day avg price volume etc and also the 24 hour price avg volume etc.  You can see, for example, Stamps 30day vol is 956k, or basically avg of 31k per day for the last 30 days.  Last 24 hour is only 8.8k.

Remember to look at volumes before the bubble though, and then during the previous bubble and before that also, to give an idea of changes as time goes by and prices change etc.

Yeah, that's a great idea!

Although I have to disagree with you for the first time here, as this was not a bubble, because the price was moving clearly for fundamental reasons.

[skivrmt]

Question to anyone: What would be the most accurate way to judge BTC volume?

There's a lot of different sites out there to see the volumes on each exchange.  I like and use : http://bitcoincharts.com/markets/  It's fairly simple but does a nice job showing most of the major exchanges in the world.

Shows the 30 day avg price volume etc and also the 24 hour price avg volume etc.  You can see, for example, Stamps 30day vol is 956k, or basically avg of 31k per day for the last 30 days.  Last 24 hour is only 8.8k.

Remember to look at volumes before the bubble though, and then during the previous bubble and before that also, to give an idea of changes as time goes by and prices change etc.

Yeah, that's a great idea!

Although I have to disagree with you for the first time here, as this was not a bubble, because the price was moving clearly for fundamental reasons.

Both posts bring up good points.  What is considered a "bubble" and how were volumes effected by the bubbles?  Bubble is a very non-technical term overused mainly for the stock market.  We heard it for the tech bubble in 01, the real estate bubble in 08.  Many consider the current stock market a bubble.  And was the bitcoin jump to $1200+ a bubble?  China was jumping on board and XBT was getting a lot of mainstream press so there was somewhat of a fundamental reason for the price increase.  But more on emotion and new investors also.  If China didn't shutdown (or basically shutdown), would the "bubble" really have been a bubble?

[Wilhelm]

A "bubble" imo is a positive price movement when there is nothing to back it up anymore.
You can get into a cascading effect where the price is driven sky-high because people are investing in it because the prices are going sky-high turning the whole thing into a self-fulfilling prophecy.
Only when a person or a group, which have a big enough share, figure out that the price is utter bullshit and pull out (or no new investors want in) does the "bubble" "pop". Due to the fact that the price plummets and everyone already knew that the price was bullshit, will everyone start making a run for the exit driving the price into a crash.

With bitcoin it is hard to tell if we are in a "bubble". The price is based on a tekst string and has no usable value, this is equal to fiat where the paper itself has no real value. Is the euro a bubble, is the dollar a bubble? these questions are equally hard to answer. If fiat can survive bitcoin most certainly will survive since nobody controls it. Some virtual coins will therefore become strong like euro's or dollars in fiat-land and others will become virtual Zimbabwian dollars which are completely worthless.

It's all about trust and acceptance and only time will tell which will survive. As we know from historic events like VHS vs Betamax we know that it is not always the best that wins.

Are we in a bubble? Nobody knows. Does it feel like a bubble? Not to me but who am I.

[Dr Bloggood]

A "bubble" imo is a positive price movement when there is nothing to back it up anymore.
You can get into a cascading effect where the price is driven sky-high because people are investing in it because the prices are going sky-high turning the whole thing into a self-fulfilling prophecy.
Only when a person or a group, which have a big enough share, figure out that the price is utter bullshit and pull out (or no new investors want in) does the "bubble" "pop". Due to the fact that the price plummets and everyone already knew that the price was bullshit, will everyone start making a run for the exit driving the price into a crash.

With bitcoin it is hard to tell if we are in a "bubble". The price is based on a tekst string and has no usable value, this is equal to fiat where the paper itself has no real value. Is the euro a bubble, is the dollar a bubble? these questions are equally hard to answer. If fiat can survive bitcoin most certainly will survive since nobody controls it. Some virtual coins will therefore become strong like euro's or dollars in fiat-land and others will become virtual Zimbabwian dollars which are completely worthless.

It's all about trust and acceptance and only time will tell which will survive. As we know from historic events like VHS vs Betamax we know that it is not always the best that wins.

Are we in a bubble? Nobody knows. Does it feel like a bubble? Not to me but who am I.

You described the mechanics of a bubble very well there. In short, a bubble is when price is totally detached from real value (to the upside).

But BTCs latest movements on the upside and the downside were driven by positive/negative news, changing the game in a fundamental way. eg: China is out to a large degree = BTC is worth less now.

But there have been long threads made about that bubble discussion before. It just became totally aparent to me after that crash (I suppose we won't go much lower than the lows we have already seen, otherwise I might have to reconsider) that it hadn't been a bubble at all.

Most people on this forum (not you) think bubble means "extremely fast and high rising price", which is just stupid. Most people on here know about BTCs technical side, but seem to have absolutely no feeling for trading and economics.

[T.Stuart]

Are we in a bubble? Nobody knows. Does it feel like a bubble? Not to me but who am I.

Not to me either, although in my opinion it is OK to refer to the rise to $1,200 in November, the rise to $270 in April, etc. as bubbles.

[T.Stuart]

It just became totally aparent to me after that crash (I suppose we won't go much lower than the lows we have already seen, otherwise I might have to reconsider) that it hadn't been a bubble at all.

It depends how short-term you are talking. According to your view I don't think you can say that April was a bubble either. In fact I agree with you that Bitcoin has never been in a bubble - look at the log scale.

But in the short-term it is a valid description, basically applying to panic buying.

Also the first fall came before China bad news. And in my opinion (although it is just speculation) the double top was forming strong regardless. But perhaps we would have just kept going significantly higher.

[btcprice]

It looks like we are in a gentle upward climb from the low point. Frankly, I prefer this to the wildly climbing prices we've had in the past that were unsustainable. According to my projection chart below we should hit $1000 on Mt. Gox on January 13th. This of course is barring any unforeseen news.

[BitchicksHusband]

I expect it to go faster once the new year starts.

[Lloydie]

A "bubble" imo is a positive price movement when there is nothing to back it up anymore.
You can get into a cascading effect where the price is driven sky-high because people are investing in it because the prices are going sky-high turning the whole thing into a self-fulfilling prophecy.
Only when a person or a group, which have a big enough share, figure out that the price is utter bullshit and pull out (or no new investors want in) does the "bubble" "pop". Due to the fact that the price plummets and everyone already knew that the price was bullshit, will everyone start making a run for the exit driving the price into a crash.

With bitcoin it is hard to tell if we are in a "bubble". The price is based on a tekst string and has no usable value, this is equal to fiat where the paper itself has no real value. Is the euro a bubble, is the dollar a bubble? these questions are equally hard to answer. If fiat can survive bitcoin most certainly will survive since nobody controls it. Some virtual coins will therefore become strong like euro's or dollars in fiat-land and others will become virtual Zimbabwian dollars which are completely worthless.

It's all about trust and acceptance and only time will tell which will survive. As we know from historic events like VHS vs Betamax we know that it is not always the best that wins.

Are we in a bubble? Nobody knows. Does it feel like a bubble? Not to me but who am I.

A bubble is something which crashes in price subsequently. If Btc goes up in price due to more widespread adoption then it is not a bubble.  If btcs fall in value due to regulations or protocol problems then it is a bubble.

Personally, I don't think it is a bubble because Btc has not even penetrated 1% of the human population. Also, it's proven pretty difficult to kill the Btc protocol and the blockchain provides an alternate way for people to transact if they don't want third party intervention.

To my mind, another reason why btcs are probably not a bubble is the almost complete absence of direct leverage/credit in driving up Btc prices. The big leveraged bets are yet to be made by speculators. Once the big leveraged bets have been made, it will be possible for Btc prices to fall if the leveraged plays are withdrawn. Until then, IMHO current Btc prices are nowhere near bubble valuations.

[segeln]

Someone posted this link earlier

Best analysis to me so far.

That post comes from me [Germany]
Yes, it`s really the best longterm-chart