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Mikcik (OP)
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December 29, 2013, 11:53:17 PM |
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Is the bitcoin price still in its 3rd buble that peaked somewhere around 1150 USD per 1 BTC?
I assuming its probable, firstly the newest buble (i belive its the 3rd one in BTC history) was cause mainly (and only?) by chinesse... The situation in China around BTC is as far as i know from settled clear position, nobody knows how it will play out in the upcomming weeks... Am i right?
Secondly, the previous bubble (the one in April 2013) had BIG correction from around 260 to around 70 (USD), thats sudden crash to 30% of its value (from TOP) ? Then it regained position and stabilized around 100 USD for several months, that means a long stability around 38,5% from its TOP.
The current buble had BIG correction to from around 1150 to around 380, that is it has fallen in one moment to 33% of its TOP value (30% was in the previozs bubble, is the similiar number just a market coincidence?), if I go according to the previous buble in April, the price should stabilize somewhere around 38,5% of its TOP value, that means something around 450 USD...
Also the previous bubble took around 2 months (from a stabilize position to UP to DOWN, to again stabilize position), 2 months...
the latest buble is lasting aproximatelly cca 1,5 months now...
So if nothing happens (positive or negative) i belive the BTC is still in a buble, and should fall somewhere around 450 USD per dollar around January 15... (if nothing GREAT or HORRIBLE happens).
What do you think about my "trading NOOB" analysis? Are we still in a buble? What will be the new "stabilized" price?
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Realpra
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December 29, 2013, 11:56:02 PM |
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Are you making analysis without so much as checking the price on an exchange? Fascinating...
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Mikcik (OP)
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December 30, 2013, 12:05:25 AM |
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Are you making analysis without so much as checking the price on an exchange? Fascinating...
I dont understand...? Its just some basic assumption of mine, but could be true i posted it here to get opinions from others, i think it is possible. edit: I know the current price of BTC of course :-)... Im asking if it is possible that were are still in the ongoing bubble stage... |
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Mylon
Full Member
 Offline
Activity: 140
Merit: 100
Mining FTW
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December 30, 2013, 12:07:45 AM |
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Well... I had my doubts about you... but not even being willing to check the exchange charts to see what actually is, rather than just calling a random number. That's just sad...
Blocked.
FYI your almost 400 usd off... no you go figure out whether its less or more...
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"All Your Base Are Belong To Us" by CATS
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nastybit
Newbie
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Activity: 42
Merit: 0
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December 30, 2013, 12:11:50 AM |
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This bubble is very different from the others we had in the past. It seems that there is enough talk on bitcoin going on right now that it doesn't deflate "as it should".
It could be because it's December and things slow down a bit, we should see some movements in January
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kellrobinson
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December 30, 2013, 01:39:54 AM |
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Do a curve fit of bitcoin's price: http://bitcoincharts.com/charts/mtgoxUSD#tgTzm1g10zm2g25zlThat's a log chart. Bitcoin's price trend is practically a straight line -- except for the bubbles. It shows remarkably consistent underlying exponential growth; price has returned to the trendline after previous bubbles. Assuming the chart is useful as a forecasting tool (and that's a big if), it supports your thesis that the price is too high right now; it's well above the trendline. But that doesn't necessarily mean the price will fall very much. It might trade in a fairly narrow range for quite some time. If such behaviour were to continue long enough, the fundamentals will catch up with the price. But that could take months. So _if_ we may see a continuation of the apparent historical trend of an underlying support that increases consistently and exponentially, then we can expect either a price drop or months of "trading sideways," as the expression goes. You could download the historical price data, load the (logarithm of) the datapoints into a spreadsheet, do a linear regression and get a quantitative forecast. |
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Kaliber1
Member
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Activity: 60
Merit: 10
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December 30, 2013, 03:13:38 AM |
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Is the bitcoin price still in its 3rd buble that peaked somewhere around 1150 USD per 1 BTC?
I assuming its probable, firstly the newest buble (i belive its the 3rd one in BTC history) was cause mainly (and only?) by chinesse... The situation in China around BTC is as far as i know from settled clear position, nobody knows how it will play out in the upcomming weeks... Am i right?
BTC CHINA, the biggest exchange is gone from 110000 BTC to 3000 as of today. I would say it's not dead but we are really near. |
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GeniuSxBoY
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December 30, 2013, 04:56:23 AM |
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Is the bitcoin price still in its 3rd buble that peaked somewhere around 1150 USD per 1 BTC?
I assuming its probable, firstly the newest buble (i belive its the 3rd one in BTC history) was cause mainly (and only?) by chinesse... The situation in China around BTC is as far as i know from settled clear position, nobody knows how it will play out in the upcomming weeks... Am i right?
BTC CHINA, the biggest exchange is gone from 110000 BTC to 3000 as of today. I would say it's not dead but we are really near.  |
Be humble!
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Mikcik (OP)
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December 30, 2013, 10:50:52 AM |
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Well... I had my doubts about you... but not even being willing to check the exchange charts to see what actually is, rather than just calling a random number. That's just sad...
Blocked.
FYI your almost 400 usd off... no you go figure out whether its less or more...
Seriously... Are you stupid:? Dont you get my point..? Or... Ow... You bought at the top 1150 dollars and now you worried about people telling the possibility that its still in a buble stage so people might sell off and bring the price even lower... Well honey im sorry, but i belive in the short term the price will be go down :-). |
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Mikcik (OP)
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December 30, 2013, 11:07:29 AM |
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Is the bitcoin price still in its 3rd buble that peaked somewhere around 1150 USD per 1 BTC?
I assuming its probable, firstly the newest buble (i belive its the 3rd one in BTC history) was cause mainly (and only?) by chinesse... The situation in China around BTC is as far as i know from settled clear position, nobody knows how it will play out in the upcomming weeks... Am i right?
BTC CHINA, the biggest exchange is gone from 110000 BTC to 3000 as of today. I would say it's not dead but we are really near. Is it lol? So how much did BTC china did (volume) at its top? |
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Chemistry1988
Legendary
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Activity: 1120
Merit: 1000
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December 30, 2013, 11:17:21 AM |
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Is the bitcoin price still in its 3rd buble that peaked somewhere around 1150 USD per 1 BTC?
I assuming its probable, firstly the newest buble (i belive its the 3rd one in BTC history) was cause mainly (and only?) by chinesse... The situation in China around BTC is as far as i know from settled clear position, nobody knows how it will play out in the upcomming weeks... Am i right?
BTC CHINA, the biggest exchange is gone from 110000 BTC to 3000 as of today. I would say it's not dead but we are really near. Is it lol? So how much did BTC china did (volume) at its top? Yup, volume at BTCC is a lot lower now. Why? Because it is no longer the largest exchange in China. 24 hours volume at Huobi ( https://www.huobi.com) is over 61000 at this moment. Bitcoin is not dead in China, though BTCChina has lost most of its business since the introduction of fee. |
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segeln
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December 30, 2013, 11:41:03 AM |
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BTC CHINA, the biggest exchange is gone from 110000 BTC to 3000 as of today. I would say it's not dead but we are really near.
Hi Kaliber1, nice to see you as full member with acces to all sections. Now you can "teach" us "westerners" about Chinese thinking and decision making. I am not sure Chinese government has made the final decision about bitcoins. No official Statement up to now. Kind regards segeln |
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T.Stuart
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December 30, 2013, 12:44:09 PM |
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i belive the BTC is still in a buble, and should fall somewhere around 450 USD per dollar around January 15...
It happened already nearly two weeks ago. I advise you to try to accept that and catch up with where we are now. January is traditionally bullish in Bitcoin and generally. There is evidence that the prices on Gox, Stamp etc. are becoming more resistant to Chinese news. According to another member here yesterday there was some dumping on a Chinese exchange but this was not followed by the western exchanges. People are now very used to the idea that Bitcoin is limited in China and with everyone looking to 31 January as a telling moment for China, I believe it will be a bit of a non-event when the day comes. Anyway according to historical figures I think that we are roughly at the right price for Bitcoin today (should be around $765-$775) and that the next few months are going to be bullish (for Bitcoin meaning up and down but in an overall upwards direction). |
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segeln
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December 30, 2013, 09:20:42 PM |
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There is evidence that the prices on Gox, Stamp etc. are becoming more resistant to Chinese news. According to another member here yesterday there was some dumping on a Chinese exchange but this was not followed by the western exchanges. People are now very used to the idea that Bitcoin is limited in China and with everyone looking to 31 January as a telling moment for China, I believe it will be a bit of a non-event when the day comes.
Anyway according to historical figures I think that we are roughly at the right price for Bitcoin today (should be around $765-$775) and that the next few months are going to be bullish (for Bitcoin meaning up and down but in an overall upwards direction).
I agree completely. China is "done" Now we see the real value of bitcoin without any foreign "bubbling" influence |
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quone17
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December 30, 2013, 09:24:18 PM |
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If BTC price hangs on for another few months to a month I think we'll be golden and it'll continue to rise. I see pressure for the near term but it's held up well so far, surprisingly.
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segeln
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December 30, 2013, 09:26:24 PM |
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I see pressure for the near term .
what kind of pressure do you see? |
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nastybit
Newbie
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Activity: 42
Merit: 0
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December 30, 2013, 09:30:30 PM |
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There is evidence that the prices on Gox, Stamp etc. are becoming more resistant to Chinese news. According to another member here yesterday there was some dumping on a Chinese exchange but this was not followed by the western exchanges. People are now very used to the idea that Bitcoin is limited in China and with everyone looking to 31 January as a telling moment for China, I believe it will be a bit of a non-event when the day comes.
Anyway according to historical figures I think that we are roughly at the right price for Bitcoin today (should be around $765-$775) and that the next few months are going to be bullish (for Bitcoin meaning up and down but in an overall upwards direction).
I agree completely. China is "done" Now we see the real value of bitcoin without any foreign "bubbling" influence Foreign as non-US? And China is not "done" yet, they will come back to bitcoin with taxation and regulation. So much money to be made, I don't believe they can do that in the future |
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segeln
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December 30, 2013, 09:47:21 PM |
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And China is not "done" yet, they will come back to bitcoin with taxation and regulation.
So much money to be made, I don't believe they can do that in the future
you are right,China might come back (I suppose it as well) but by "done" I meant China will not have that Impact which it had last month. Taxation and regulation will have Impact within China,but not outside. |
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Mikcik (OP)
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December 30, 2013, 10:13:23 PM |
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i belive the BTC is still in a buble, and should fall somewhere around 450 USD per dollar around January 15...
It happened already nearly two weeks ago. I advise you to try to accept that and catch up with where we are now. January is traditionally bullish in Bitcoin and generally. There is evidence that the prices on Gox, Stamp etc. are becoming more resistant to Chinese news. According to another member here yesterday there was some dumping on a Chinese exchange but this was not followed by the western exchanges. People are now very used to the idea that Bitcoin is limited in China and with everyone looking to 31 January as a telling moment for China, I believe it will be a bit of a non-event when the day comes. Anyway according to historical figures I think that we are roughly at the right price for Bitcoin today (should be around $765-$775) and that the next few months are going to be bullish (for Bitcoin meaning up and down but in an overall upwards direction). Well, firstly, i didnt saw and see any dumps on china BTC exchange yesterday... view http://bitcoinwisdom.com/nothing there Secondly, i really dont think that BTC is out of buble... what happened two weeks ago was just sudden drop in price just like in aprial, but i belive that btc still didnt stabilized its price, its stabilizess its price when the price doesnt move much around many weeks or even months, and BTC price currently really isnt stable... But i get the point, again a ton of naive people without any market experience thinking that future is just honey and butterflies :-)... I ask the question differently, is there anyone that thinks, that bitcoin price is still in a buble stage and that it will still go down (Around 450) an stabilizes itself around this value for several months? |
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T.Stuart
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December 30, 2013, 10:20:47 PM |
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But i get the point, again a ton of naive people without any market experience thinking that future is just honey and butterflies :-)...
I ask the question differently, is there anyone that thinks, that bitcoin price is still in a buble stage and that it will still go down (Around 450) an stabilizes itself around this value for several months?
I honestly don't believe we are going to stabilise at $450 for several months. There is no evidence this will happen. Guess I'm more of a honey and butterflies person really. |
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