No ROI on future Mining, its a FACT!

[tibdraw]

or I am missing a very crucial point somewhere.

Basically, I was thinking of investing in 2T miners from various suppliers.

Lets take the most optimistic example, solar panels, electricity is free, all items gets shipped in time, lets say in March 2014 and also take the predicted end of Feb 2014 difficulty level of 5.4 mill as a base for March 2014

(http://www.vnbitcoin.org/bitcoincharts.php)

it means I can mine 0.18 coins a day till about 10 days, when the difficulty jumps to 7.1mill what makes 0.14 coins a day for 10 days:

0.18 BTC 10 days = 1,8 BTC - diff 5.4mill - 1 March 2014
0.14 BTC 10 days = 1.4 BTC - diff 7.1mill - 11 March 2014
0.11 BTC 10 days = 1.1 BTC - diff 9.1mill - 21 March 2014
0.08 BTC 10 days = 0.8 BTC - diff 11.1mill - 1 April 2014
0.06 BTC 10 days = 0.6 BTC - diff 15.1mill - 11 April 2014

Total 5.7BTC mined in a bit over a month in a very very optimistic scenario, now the cheapest 2Th is from black arrow for over $5k, what is over 7+BTC.

If I do the very same calculations with a 60Gh BFL mining rig, I get exactly the very same poor result.

It is just make no sense to buy any mining rig, rather than to buy the BTC instead, not mention lot less stressful and simple solution with better ROI.

Can someone pls enlighten me what I am missing from the calculations? how come that these rigs are sold? (neptunes for example?) and the BFLs are still selling way over priced on ebay?

Thanks much
Regards
Pete

[-ck]

It's been this way since shortly after ASICs became available, but doesn't change people buying hardware in case... (In case of what? You decide). Most ASIC purchasing miners use a cognitive bias known as "post purchase rationalization" (google/wiki it) to somehow justify that it was worth it and profitable through some argument regarding change of value in BTC, even though exchanging money into BTC is profitable whereas buying mining equipment is the most expensive way to turn fiat dollars into BTC.

Nothing to see here, move along.

[jamesc760]

your diff factor is WAY too LOW. It should be in the BILLIONS, not millions.

[Grix]

Well for one you assume a lot about the future difficulty. Just because the difficulty is doubling every month now doesn't mean it will continue to do so. I personally don't believe we'll see 10 billion until at least june-july, and start plateauing after that.

[tibdraw]

your diff factor is WAY too LOW. It should be in the BILLIONS, not millions.

yep, sorry, you are right there

[tibdraw]

Well for one you assume a lot about the future difficulty. Just because the difficulty is doubling every month now doesn't mean it will continue to do so. I personally don't believe we'll see 10 billion until at least june-july, and start plateauing after that.

I was just following the prediction from the linked website (in the first post)
so far they were spot on, although I was only following it in the last 6 months or so.

to be honest, I was quite gutted by the result of my calculations, I had funds available to buy a few 2THs miners from various suppliers, but it just made no sense, main reason opening this thread was to see if I made a mistake and there is still some way to mine profitably.

at the end I bought BTC for the funds and made 15+% on it already.

[Grix]

at the end I bought BTC for the funds and made 15+% on it already.

Probably a smart move

[smithytzu]

Well for one you assume a lot about the future difficulty. Just because the difficulty is doubling every month now doesn't mean it will continue to do so. I personally don't believe we'll see 10 billion until at least june-july, and start plateauing after that.

I was just following the prediction from the linked website (in the first post)
so far they were spot on, although I was only following it in the last 6 months or so.

to be honest, I was quite gutted by the result of my calculations, I had funds available to buy a few 2THs miners from various suppliers, but it just made no sense, main reason opening this thread was to see if I made a mistake and there is still some way to mine profitably.

at the end I bought BTC for the funds and made 15+% on it already.

The biggest risk factor for me with my calculations is the likely/unlikeliness of the black arrow/hashfast etcs delivering on time.

I just don't see, maybe apart from kncs Neptune, any of them delivering on time.

In the end, nobody knows what will happen, the only thing you can say for certain is buying btc has a lot less variables involved than buying mining equipment.

[WilcoLaad]

Don't mine. Basic economics.

Do you think ASIC manufacturers are at all interested in whether you turn a profit? They're selling shovels to gold diggers, but can also dig themselves.

The price you see is the minimum of what ASIC manufacturers are willing to sell their equipment at (i.e. the maximum amount of money they can make on the equipment if they didn't sell it and just mined themselves). Anything less and they'll keep the equipment and mine themselves (many probably are doing this right now). Don't think that any ASIC manufacturer has your welfare in mind - they are just looking out for themselves.

Best bet is to manufacture your own ASIC. Otherwise don't mine. Buy BTC if you're bullish.

[superresistant]

Some buy it for fun.

[PolkRB]

If you buy 2TH/s for $5k today, and BTC price will be $10,000 in a year.... just a thought...

[BunworthBanshee]

If you buy 2TH/s for $5k today, and BTC price will be $10,000 in a year.... just a thought...

but if you buy 6.23btc today and worth $62300 in a year!!! just a better thought.....

[WilcoLaad]

Yes exactly. It is always better to just buy the BTC directly unless you can make your own ASIC miners.

[Kenshin]

Everyone should stop mining. And buy bitcoins instead. 

[cp1]

ASIC companies would be stupid to sell their machines for less than they can make.  Otherwise they'd just mine with them.

[BunworthBanshee]

I think every miner, that bought an asic, would of made more by buying btc instead. if there is anybody, that has more btc from mining I would be very surprised.

[traiz]

I think every miner, that bought an asic, would of made more by buying btc instead. if there is anybody, that has more btc from mining I would be very surprised.

I brought a knc jupiter when btc was close to $1000USD.
So it would have gotten me 5, maybe 6 BTC.
So far, my jupiter hashed close to 7 BTC.

[Anddos]

Asics are about to make them selfs extinct,you have been warned

[cdog]

https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=398290.0

[heisenbit]

Some people cannot buy high amounts of BTC given local goverment regulations, such as myself. I would gladly buy 5kUSD worth of BTC today, but it's just a no-go given lack of payment methods. Given this, buying a 2THS mining contract due to start in March seems the easiest way to get a hold of some BTCs...