Green shoot analysis - volume increasing

[T.Stuart]

I thought this might require a thread of its own!

I thought I'd do some more rough "green shoot" analysis and I'm pleased to say things are looking positive!

Here are the green shoots for early yesterday before someone made the questionable decision to sell...



And here are the green shoots for roughly the same time period today...



The TA big boys might laugh at my roundabout methods, but for me this means one thing: fresh incoming transfers being processed via the exchanges!

[T.Stuart]

Shoots keep growing...

[MatTheCat]

Shoots keep growing...

Sorry, but having checked Gox...

volume is down today on what it was yesterday, and that is without the sell off. Gox also looking like it is being traded by somebody's robots playing pass the parcel.

[T.Stuart]

MatTheCat what I am doing is comparing small scale events - peaks from yesterday and today.

Have a look on the minute scale and you will see what is going on.

Of course it is always important to check the bigger picture but at the moment a lot of people are trying to work out the subtleties of the next market move, and that takes in this case also looking at details I reckon.

By the way today has only just begun - so you can't say that volume today is down on yesterday. You have to wait until tomorrow to be able to say that! 

[MatTheCat]

By the way today has only just begun - so you can't say that volume today is down on yesterday. You have to wait until tomorrow to be able to say that! 

Ok, looking at the past 10 days, volume is steadily decreasing on all exchanges.

Green Shoots? Really?

[ElectricMucus]

Shoots keep growing...

Sorry, but having checked Gox...

volume is down today on what it was yesterday, and that is without the sell off. Gox also looking like it is being traded by somebody's robots playing pass the parcel.

One explanation could be that there is a bot who puts of asks and another bot who grabs them. The selling bot seems to be programmed only to put in orders when there is low liquidity and the buy bot only acting when there is high liquidity. So the price seems to be smashed against an invisible askwall.

[T.Stuart]

By the way today has only just begun - so you can't say that volume today is down on yesterday. You have to wait until tomorrow to be able to say that! 

Ok, looking at the past 10 days, volume is steadily decreasing on all exchanges.

Green Shoots? Really?

MatTheCat, you didn't read my last post. I am looking at microcosmic events to imagine the next market move.

Look at other threads here (Arepo's notes for example) and you will see that many think we are at a tipping point and it is difficult to call either way. At this stage I don't think 10 days ago matters so much as right now!

[RyNinDaCleM]

By the way today has only just begun - so you can't say that volume today is down on yesterday. You have to wait until tomorrow to be able to say that! 

Ok, looking at the past 10 days, volume is steadily decreasing on all exchanges.

Green Shoots? Really?

MatTheCat, you didn't read my last post. I am looking at microcosmic events to imagine the next market move.

Look at other threads here (Arepo's notes for example) and you will see that many think we are at a tipping point and it is difficult to call either way. At this stage I don't think 10 days ago matters so much as right now!

Of course we are... If Gox breaks $839, the next stop is likely $900-950 ($1,000 being possible) before chances of another sell-off begins.
I know many of you don't believe in Elliot Waves, but I would wager a guess that at least some of the whales do. That said, a major bearish count becomes invalidated at that price point.

Note that there are other possible bear counts, so this does not necessarily mean the bull market is back in full force.

[MatTheCat]

MatTheCat, you didn't read my last post. I am looking at microcosmic events to imagine the next market move.

Look at other threads here (Arepo's notes for example) and you will see that many think we are at a tipping point and it is difficult to call either way. At this stage I don't think 10 days ago matters so much as right now!

Well, volume is down on the last 24 hours, 48 hours, 72 hours, overall.

I also notice that Huobi accounts for 50% of all Bitcoin trades at the moment. This is a Chinese exchange. There is of course the argument that most of these trades are bots playing pass the parcel and also the fact that by the end of this month, the 50% trade volume of this exchange and its other Chinese mates will be gone.

Bitcoin has been as 'stable' as i have seen it for months over the past week or so, but is it skating on thin ice and is that ice getting increasingly thinner?

Should be an interesting month, but not as interesting as February when we will see where Bitcoin really stands minus the Chinese influence.

[T.Stuart]

but is it skating on thin ice and is that ice getting increasingly thinner?

"Thin ice" is an interesting way to put it and it certainly sounds like an appropriate description when you think of what a whale would do if it landed on an icy pond!  

But that description applies less well if we are not in a panicky or fearful market. And I don't think we are so much now (at least all things being as they are we are moving out of the panic phase).  

Right now I believe things are more stable than you think. The reason we are moving slowly is because the psychology is quite balanced. Most sellers think their Bitcoins are worth more than the current price and they are content to wait. One or two or a few think this price is fair to sell at and their walls are getting nibbled at. And it looks like we have a significant number of nibblers!

So now we have to see who will stop hodling first: those hodling Bitcoins or those hodling fiat. Remember also that for all those hodling fiat ready on an exchange, there are more waiting (could quite easily be a lot more) for their fiat to be processed by the exchange or bank so that it is available to them. And of course, there are Bitcoin hodlers with cold storage who might decide to move some of their coins onto an exchange.

For me the over-riding question at this point is a basic one. Is Bitcoin going to succeed? I think it is, and I believe that if the majority of the people I have outlined above think it is also then the market price will go up. If the majority are pure speculators who either don't understand Bitcoin properly (which could lead to a lot of fear) or who actually think it might well fail soon but want to get in on a "last wave" or whatever, then I think the price will go down.

I am a simpleton and of course there are other factors including almost chance events like convincing (but maybe wrong) news reports that could have an effect. But there we go.

[MatTheCat]

So now we have to see who will stop hodling first: those hodling Bitcoins or those hodling fiat.

The relative price stability in Bitcoin recently also calms my nerves but the increasingly thinning volume (in contrast to your thread title) does give cause for concern. With such low volume, next time a whale makes a splash could see a dramatic move in either direction, but given recent market machinations, are we more likely for a dramatic move up, or a sudden panic inducing drop? What if there are still a lot of Chinese coins being held by people who have kept an amount in reserve awaiting further clarification on the Bitcoin situation from their government, and if nothing changes, then the majority of these coins are still to be dumped?

Looking back at the April 2013 crash, Bitcoin looked like it had stabilised at around $150. Had anyone bought some BTC at these prices and held, then today they would be laughing, but anyone buying and holding back then, would have seen the value of their investment more than half. Everyone knows this and everyone wants best value for themselves, everyone also knows that China still presents a certain immeasurable X-Factor between now and the 31st January, or the next Bitcoin statement from the PBOC.

I have seen this all with gold and silver investment. I started tuning into precious metals in 2010 (first time I had surplus capital to invest in anything), jumped on-board and watched my physical 'in yer hand' bullion coins almost double in value in the case of gold, and more than double in the case of silver. I was very well versed in all the goldbug and silver stacker theories, read several books on the subject, read copious blog posts, watched hours of documentaries and you-tube 'expert' interviews. I could have hammered anyone into the ground debating the PM fundamentals, TA, loose central bank credit creation policy. In short, the meteoric rise in gold and silver all made perfect sense, and when it started to correct, it all made perfect sense that it was just stabilising preparing for the next leg up. When it went down further, out came the conspiracy theories of 'precious metal take downs'.

In short, I have been on this emotional and intellectual roller coaster before and recognise a lot of similar sights, sounds and smells, albeit condensed into a two month period as opposed to several years.

[arepo]

Shoots keep growing...

im sorry to say that you're looking at this image through green-colored glasses. if your "green shoots" carry that much significance, than shouldn't the "red slides" carry the same? in this image, there are about an even number of them. also, as many other posters have pointed out, volume really matters.

anyway, i'm just not sure about what conclusions you are drawing and what conclusions even can be drawn from this particular data.

--arepo

[T.Stuart]

Shoots keep growing...

im sorry to say that you're looking at this image through green-colored glasses. if your "green shoots" carry that much significance, than shouldn't the "red slides" carry the same? in this image, there are about an even number of them. also, as many other posters have pointed out, volume really matters.

anyway, i'm just not sure about what conclusions you are drawing and what conclusions even can be drawn from this particular data.

--arepo

Well doesn't this data (the volume bars at the bottom of the image) show consistently bullish up movements, at more regular and certainly more voluminous rates than the downward red movements? Please let me know if I have misread it.

[T.Stuart]

I knew those green shoots were telling me something! 

[RyNinDaCleM]

Of course we are... If Gox breaks $839, the next stop is likely $900-950 ($1,000 being possible) before chances of another sell-off begins.
I know many of you don't believe in Elliot Waves, but I would wager a guess that at least some of the whales do. That said, a major bearish count becomes invalidated at that price point.

Note that there are other possible bear counts, so this does not necessarily mean the bull market is back in full force.

 

[I_bitcoin]

Of course we are... If Gox breaks $839, the next stop is likely $900-950 ($1,000 being possible) before chances of another sell-off begins.
I know many of you don't believe in Elliot Waves, but I would wager a guess that at least some of the whales do. That said, a major bearish count becomes invalidated at that price point.

Note that there are other possible bear counts, so this does not necessarily mean the bull market is back in full force.

 

Your wish delivered.   Gox has broken 839.

[T.Stuart]

Of course we are... If Gox breaks $839, the next stop is likely $900-950 ($1,000 being possible) before chances of another sell-off begins.
I know many of you don't believe in Elliot Waves, but I would wager a guess that at least some of the whales do. That said, a major bearish count becomes invalidated at that price point.

Note that there are other possible bear counts, so this does not necessarily mean the bull market is back in full force.

 

Your wish delivered.   Gox has broken 839.

I think he saw that 

[RyNinDaCleM]

Of course we are... If Gox breaks $839, the next stop is likely $900-950 ($1,000 being possible) before chances of another sell-off begins.
I know many of you don't believe in Elliot Waves, but I would wager a guess that at least some of the whales do. That said, a major bearish count becomes invalidated at that price point.

Note that there are other possible bear counts, so this does not necessarily mean the bull market is back in full force.

 

Your wish delivered.   Gox has broken 839.

I think he saw that 

I wasn't really pointing out my call for my sake. It was more to show the merit that EW can have with determining some tipping points

[T.Stuart]

Of course we are... If Gox breaks $839, the next stop is likely $900-950 ($1,000 being possible) before chances of another sell-off begins.
I know many of you don't believe in Elliot Waves, but I would wager a guess that at least some of the whales do. That said, a major bearish count becomes invalidated at that price point.

Note that there are other possible bear counts, so this does not necessarily mean the bull market is back in full force.

 

Your wish delivered.   Gox has broken 839.

I think he saw that 

I wasn't really pointing out my call for my sake. It was more to show the merit that EW can have with determining some tipping points

I haven't got a clue what EW (Elliot Waves?) are but would be grateful for a link to a concise explanation if you have one.

[RyNinDaCleM]

Of course we are... If Gox breaks $839, the next stop is likely $900-950 ($1,000 being possible) before chances of another sell-off begins.
I know many of you don't believe in Elliot Waves, but I would wager a guess that at least some of the whales do. That said, a major bearish count becomes invalidated at that price point.

Note that there are other possible bear counts, so this does not necessarily mean the bull market is back in full force.

 

Your wish delivered.   Gox has broken 839.

I think he saw that 

I wasn't really pointing out my call for my sake. It was more to show the merit that EW can have with determining some tipping points

I haven't got a clue what EW (Elliot Waves?) are but would be grateful for a link to a concise explanation if you have one.

Yes, Elliot Wave Theory. There is a bit of a learning curve to it, but it's not that hard once you get the basics.
I wrote up a consolidation of the basics on another forum:
https://community.bitfinex.com/showthread.php/45-Elliot-waves-to-Fibonacci

This is a more in-depth read:
http://www.forexhit.com/learn-forex/elliott-wave-principle.html