Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion

[gmannn]

With each new day I see less and less chance for price to significantly drop. Only some very negative news could do it, the buying pressure just absorbs any dump, and bid walls keep building.

Lets revisit this once there is a 50k dump.

I was thinking about this the other day.

I doubt we're gonna see a 50k coin dump ever again.

The market has matured. People with that amount of coins know they can get easily get a better OTC deal these days.

Voodah are you one of the forum users 1 hop away from silk road?

http://css.csail.mit.edu/6.858/2013/projects/mfleder-mkester-spillai.pdf

Just noticed they used you as an example.

[ChartBuddy]

[Salivan]

Volume in USD is important but number of coins traded also matters as long as supply is increased by mining.
 Low volume creates condition for miners to bring price down, how strong is this  pressure is completely different story, without this I see bitcoin price only rising.
For example if bitcoin survive to the next halving almost for sure there will be another rally, before next supply/demand equilibrium point will be found.

Anyway for the time being I predict that this slow price recovery will continue low volume or not, albeit we are in a post crash time sentiment is rather positive.

[TERA]

I wonder if these same arguments about low volume were used in May.

[T.Stuart]

I wonder if these same arguments about low volume were used in May.

May, May, May... !

"Mayday" more like ! 

[JorgeStolfi]

Someone is playing ping-pong on MtGox. Ping is a transaction of a few bitcoins at some price X in the gap between the highest stable bid and lowest stable ask. Pong is a similar teansaction at a price Y some 5-10 USD below X. Each transaction seems to be a small bid immediately follwed by a matching ask, or vice-versa.

There is at least one ping-pong per minute, perhaps more. The average values of X and Y creep up by 1-2 USD every few minutes. Sometimes X stops before hitting a substantial wall, while Y keeps creeping up.

The effect is to make the mean price move up steadily for many minutes. Presumably this convinces other traders to revise their orders upward, so the ping-pong can continue creeping up as the nearest sell barriers move out of the way.

This ping-pong has been going on between dumps since dec/30 at least, with some interruptions.

[T.Stuart]

Someone is playing ping-pong on MtGox. Ping is a transaction of a few bitcoins at some price X in the gap between the highest stable bid and lowest stable ask. Pong is a similar teansaction at a price Y some 5-10 USD below X. Each transaction seems to be a small bid immediately follwed by a matching ask, or vice-versa.

There is at least one ping-pong per minute, perhaps more. The average values of X and Y creep up by 1-2 USD every few minutes. Sometimes X stops before hitting a substantial wall, while Y keeps creeping up.

The effect is to make the mean price move up steadily for many minutes. Presumably this convinces other traders to revise their orders upward, so the ping-pong can continue creeping up as the nearest sell barriers move out of the way.

This ping-pong has been going on between dumps since dec/30 at least, with some interruptions.

I believe but I may be wrong that the ping pong is a confirmation of the spread when there are no trades, but that these are mixed in with small purchases.

[Ashitank]

600 btc purchase on stamp lol

[windjc]

porn.com and all its related sites now accept bitcoin.

[T.Stuart]

Check out all the green shoots (vol)!

Have you seen the way plants always win over concrete?  

[seleme]

50K was dumped in May. At the time, the order books were so deep that the dump only brought the price from $127 to $118 - only 9% slippage, and then the month long downtrend began. Now look at our current order books - even if you combine mtgox and bitstamp - the same dump would reduce the price to $450, a 45% drop... Think about that for a moment. Bid support my ass.

You guys have forgotten how even the title of this very thread was created.

Problem is that doing that doesn't guarantee any bitcoin profit if it is done for that purpose as price would bounce heavily and whale would have  hard time to buy at satisfying profit without big risk. There is buying pressure, there is support as much as your position is making you to be blind about it. Just look how market reacted on last 5k dump at these 700-800 prices and you could imagine how it would react in 500s without negative news (though it reacted with heavy and strong bounce after last negative ones)

And if he is doing it just to cash out than it's much better to cash out few thousands at time, wait for bids to build up and repeat, there is enough buying pressure to do it. Again, we saw that from yesterday's dump and several similar in last 2 weeks or so, price bounced back each time.

So, it surely can happen, bitcoin is crazy thing and you never know when someone with lot of bitcoins wants to cash out, but in purely business matter there's no sense for it to happen without another set of negative news, so it's crazy to make trading plans on things that just might happen from some reason.

[ChartBuddy]

[JorgeStolfi]

I blieve but I may be wrong that the ping pong is a confirmation of the spread when there are no trades, but that these are mixed in with small purchases.

Ok, but the ping-pong volume seems to be 2/3 of the total volume at MtGox (between dumps) if not more. And the real spread seems to be fairly constant while the ping-pong limits slowly increase.

Edit: added "(between dumpds)"

[T.Stuart]

I thought I'd do some more rough "green shoot" analysis and I'm pleased to say things are looking positive!

Here are the green shoots for early yesterday before someone made the questionable decision to sell...



And here are the green shoots for roughly the same time period today...



The TA big boys might laugh at my roundabout methods, but for me this means one thing: fresh incoming transfers being processed via the exchanges! (EDIT: Or beginning to clear the backlog built up over the holidays first, which could well be substantial)

[seleme]

By not caring what the price of Bitcoin is and just by working to increase my BTC position trading alts and crypto securities, I made some 300 BTC in last 8 months with less than 1k$ investment.

In last month or so I wanted to be smart ass and to protect my new $ net worth by trading btc vs usd and not only I haven't increased my btc position and protect my net worth, I missed loads of opportunities to increase my btc position by dozens of more BTC thinking more about Bitcoin USD value than doing what I was great in doing for months. I got myself influenced by TA bullshitters and turned my attention in wrong direction.

So, fuck TA and fuck Bitcoin dollar value. Single time when BTC dollar value is important is one when you want to cash out.

[mmitech]

good morning and happy new year, so what is up ? any news ?

[T.Stuart]

good morning and happy new year, so what is up ? any news ?

Lots of green shoots! 

[windjc]

good morning and happy new year, so what is up ? any news ?

Major porn sites now accepting bitcoin.

[Davyd05]

always nice to see stamp move first.

[flynn]

good morning and happy new year, so what is up ? any news ?

Major porn sites now accepting bitcoin.

Who pays for porn anyway ?


[edit: I am kidding, that's good news]