Losing all hope

[bitbrasil]

Hey what if we stop judging other people on this thread?

As for the OP, my suggestion is, if you are doing this long term, the best time to buy is always the same value = NOW().

[DieJohnny]

Hey what if we stop judging other people on this thread?

As for the OP, my suggestion is, if you are doing this long term, the best time to buy is always the same value = NOW().

It is true that holding is a great strategy. I have been fortunate to double my Bitcoin with opportunistic trades. I want more Bitcoin and I am thinking of praying at the Whale temple to get them.

[mgio]

Look, I bought in at $10.80. When I saw it going up exactly a year ago, I decided to double my investment and buy more. It was in the high 13's. I wanted to wait until it dropped to $13.25 so that where I put my buy order in at. I think it dropped to $13.30 or so, so my buy never got filled. I waited, and it went to $14, then $15... finally a few days later, I panic bought at $17.25, worried that I would miss out.

Had I just bought at $13.30, I would have 80 more coins now.

Had I continued to wait till it dropped to the low 13's again, I'd still be waiting.

Lesson is, if you believe in bitcoin, buy NOW. Do NOT try to time the market or you will get screwed.

[pbody]

If BTC will go down to $500 again then the same things will happen all over again. "This time it is different" "It is the end" "It is over"...

So true. I believe we will see 500-600 again in the next couple months. I believe it will dip down before it shoots back up around July. This may happen as we get closer to the 31st and more Chinese decide to get out last minute.

No way am I panic buying unless it starts to break 1200.

[dani]

If BTC will go down to $500 again then the same things will happen all over again. "This time it is different" "It is the end" "It is over"...

So true. I believe we will see 500-600 again in the next couple months. I believe it will dip down before it shoots back up around July. This may happen as we get closer to the 31st and more Chinese decide to get out last minute.

No way am I panic buying unless it starts to break 1200.

thanks, we need people like you, pushing more when breaking ATHs. Better buy later

[Tzupy]

I wonder if on the 22nd April 2013 the mood was similar...

[HairyMaclairy]

As is pretty obvious, I live in Toronto, Ontario. When I checked the weather this morning, it was -23c with a windchill of -35c.

I used to live in Toronto.  Then I moved to Australia. 36c today 

[kkaspar]

I am losing all hope of ever buying Bitcoin cheap again

Who else is starting to feel like $500 BTC is never gonna happen?

Without the impatience of average traders, manipulators would need to work a lot harder to get their riches

[DPoS]

Not sure about that.  The last major crash (November 2013) didn't get as low as the peak before the previous crash (April 2013).  The next major correction might not get below $1200.

past performance is only a guarantee for future bullshitting

[Soros Shorts]

Why would you not want to work? Working, and having your own business especially, is great.

+1

Working gives you a purpose in life. Not everyone hates their job.

I guess some people just have a slave mentality. It's weird. For me the question is why would you want to. Better to do what you want, and then it's a hobby even if you get paid for it. But even for people who like to work, surely it would still be better to be able to decide that you don't need this job. Most people don't have even that kind of luxury.

+1

There is a difference between "having to go to work" and "not having to go to work".
Some people who have shitloads of cash want a simple yet nice/fun job which has no stress.
Having your own company might seem nice but can be very stressful and probably won't be fun for everyone and especially if your not good at it.

imo luxury is "not having to work"

Man, I like to work. I guess I am too stupid to understand the concept of Living on Easy Street.

Seriously speaking, though, work should not be your only purpose in life. I've observed that people who are truly happy have several different purposes in life. Not too many so as to lose focus, but certainly more than one. They are always filling their time doing things that they consider are worthwhile to them.

[jzcjca00]

Not sure about that.  The last major crash (November 2013) didn't get as low as the peak before the previous crash (April 2013).  The next major correction might not get below $1200.

past performance is only a guarantee for future bullshitting

The best investors know that the best predictor of future behavior is relevant past behavior.  The trend is your friend.

That said, anyone who thinks they can accurately predict future prices by looking at past prices alone is kidding themselves.  External events like government actions and media distortions move the prices.

The bottom line is that growing numbers of people around the world see the promise of Bitcoin and are hopping aboard.  While there will be ups and downs due to external events, I see no sign that this overall trend is changing. 

[Wilhelm]

The best investors know that the best predictor of future behavior is relevant past behavior.

In my opinion this mainly applies for market that are long in existence.
My reasoning is that in the traditional markets there is a relatively fixed population of traders/bots using a lot of the same technical indicators and thus making the market react quickly to those indicators.
In essence making a self fulfilling prophecy based on past performance due to those reacting on indicators.

Bitcoin has only been in existence for a short while so there is not much "past" data to go on. Also there is a lot going on around bitcoin like legislation, etc.
Maybe some new indicators will be adopted based on the volatile start of bitcoin making traditional indicators unreliable.

I've read that traders use 5 to 10 years of historic data to test their indicators on. Bitcoin simply doesn't have enough historical data, and is a starting market, thus making any sound prediction of the future based on the past a hard call.

The trend is your friend.

I agree since this is what's happening at the moment so chance of a trend turning is small.

[piramida]

I've read that traders use 5 to 10 years of historic data to test their indicators on. Bitcoin simply doesn't have enough historical data, and is a starting market, thus making any sound prediction of the future based on the past a hard call.

Didn't you know that in bitcoin world, one year is equivalent of 10+ years of regular markets? Look at volatility, we go through all the regular events 10 times faster. We already had three huge crashes after enormous 100-fold rallies, something that took wallstreet about 100 years. So I'd say there is enough history. And no, bitcoin never broke the previous ATH and I doubt it will do it now. The previous ones were $0.5 ATH, $1.1 ATH, $32 ATH, $266 ATH, now $1242 - once we are well past that mark, we won't see it again.

[isov]

I've read that traders use 5 to 10 years of historic data to test their indicators on. Bitcoin simply doesn't have enough historical data, and is a starting market, thus making any sound prediction of the future based on the past a hard call.

Didn't you know that in bitcoin world, one year is equivalent of 10+ years of regular markets? Look at volatility, we go through all the regular events 10 times faster. We already had three huge crashes after enormous 100-fold rallies, something that took wallstreet about 100 years. So I'd say there is enough history. And no, bitcoin never broke the previous ATH and I doubt it will do it now. The previous ones were $0.5 ATH, $1.1 ATH, $32 ATH, $266 ATH, now $1242 - once we are well past that mark, we won't see it again.

+1 Pretty much my view also.

And as some blabla to the OP, I am from Finland probably quite same as denmark but even worse climate, national hobby is having a liter of vodka and beating your wife and kids on weekends (not forgetting to throw them out in the snow) But thats only the stereotype if you want to see it that way, I like it in the summer time when there is a chance of maybe going outside in a t-shirt and sun just stays up and everything.
I only have a high school degree myself and estonians and polish people are coming to do most of the crap works with low pay so pretty much the same situation. But I thought it over, managed to land myself a job in the harbour (have also been changing tyres, scaffolding and some electricity stuff) so now I work the best weather 7-9 months and travel the rest somewhere where its warm. ATM Cambodia, 28,5C at 1:29AM.
I've had some downturns also, hurt myself at job, sporting etc. only my left hand is without a surgery or any metal in it. And I'm 24years old, have payments for my apartment at home and all the stuff people consider "normal". With BTC I was quite late, heard something about it in late 2011 but found it too difficult to buy and forgot about it until this october or so when I read of the norwegian guy buying an apartment with BTC. Started buying in but still have like only bit more than 5BTC, hopefully can accumulate more and let it be only choochoo for 2014.

So maybe I could be somekind of an example for you, you can if you want.

Peace.

[arepo]

bitcoin never broke the previous ATH and I doubt it will do it now. The previous ones were $0.5 ATH, $1.1 ATH, $32 ATH, $266 ATH, now $1242 - once we are well past that mark, we won't see it again.

this a very good point, piramida, but the paradigm is liable to change at some point -- the problem is we simply do not know when!

--arepo

[T.Stuart]

bitcoin never broke the previous ATH and I doubt it will do it now. The previous ones were $0.5 ATH, $1.1 ATH, $32 ATH, $266 ATH, now $1242 - once we are well past that mark, we won't see it again.

this a very good point, piramida, but the paradigm is liable to change at some point -- the problem is we simply do not know when!

--arepo

Just like the paradigms of wedges and triangles are liable to require change for the infant market of Bitcoin...

[EvilPanda]

I've read that traders use 5 to 10 years of historic data to test their indicators on. Bitcoin simply doesn't have enough historical data, and is a starting market, thus making any sound prediction of the future based on the past a hard call.

Didn't you know that in bitcoin world, one year is equivalent of 10+ years of regular markets? Look at volatility, we go through all the regular events 10 times faster. We already had three huge crashes after enormous 100-fold rallies, something that took wallstreet about 100 years. So I'd say there is enough history. And no, bitcoin never broke the previous ATH and I doubt it will do it now. The previous ones were $0.5 ATH, $1.1 ATH, $32 ATH, $266 ATH, now $1242 - once we are well past that mark, we won't see it again.

+1 Pretty much my view also.

And as some blabla to the OP, I am from Finland probably quite same as denmark but even worse climate, national hobby is having a liter of vodka and beating your wife and kids on weekends (not forgetting to throw them out in the snow) But thats only the stereotype if you want to see it that way, I like it in the summer time when there is a chance of maybe going outside in a t-shirt and sun just stays up and everything.
I only have a high school degree myself and estonians and polish people are coming to do most of the crap works with low pay so pretty much the same situation. But I thought it over, managed to land myself a job in the harbour (have also been changing tyres, scaffolding and some electricity stuff) so now I work the best weather 7-9 months and travel the rest somewhere where its warm. ATM Cambodia, 28,5C at 1:29AM.
I've had some downturns also, hurt myself at job, sporting etc. only my left hand is without a surgery or any metal in it. And I'm 24years old, have payments for my apartment at home and all the stuff people consider "normal". With BTC I was quite late, heard something about it in late 2011 but found it too difficult to buy and forgot about it until this october or so when I read of the norwegian guy buying an apartment with BTC. Started buying in but still have like only bit more than 5BTC, hopefully can accumulate more and let it be only choochoo for 2014.

So maybe I could be somekind of an example for you, you can if you want.

Peace.

Good for you.
You should really travel a a bit to see how other people live and why those immigrants come and do all the crap jobs. In Poland, Ukraine, Bulgaria and many other typical monthly wage is below $500. I used to work 12 hours a day for $2/h (!) and I have a master's degree, speak 3 languages and can do anything from repairing your car to setting up a LAN network. I know people who have PhD in science and work for $600/month. Before you start complaining about your hard and exhausting $20/h job come and visit us third worlders  

[piramida]

bitcoin never broke the previous ATH and I doubt it will do it now. The previous ones were $0.5 ATH, $1.1 ATH, $32 ATH, $266 ATH, now $1242 - once we are well past that mark, we won't see it again.

this a very good point, piramida, but the paradigm is liable to change at some point -- the problem is we simply do not know when!

Easy - bitcoin is not yet at worldwide adoption stage, so if the paradigm is broken *now*, that would mean bitcoin has failed. So if the growth stops now, it would make sense to get out of bitcoin asap. But I don't think it is time now, or that this time would ever come. What I think would happen, is the price will (after several more rally/crash cycles) arrive at a more or less steady state with slow natural growth against inflating fiat. But until that point, there is only one direction, and it is up. If it's broken, something went wrong and you should get out. For me, it's that simple.

[arepo]

bitcoin never broke the previous ATH and I doubt it will do it now. The previous ones were $0.5 ATH, $1.1 ATH, $32 ATH, $266 ATH, now $1242 - once we are well past that mark, we won't see it again.

this a very good point, piramida, but the paradigm is liable to change at some point -- the problem is we simply do not know when!

Easy - bitcoin is not yet at worldwide adoption stage, so if the paradigm is broken *now*, that would mean bitcoin has failed. So if the growth stops now, it would make sense to get out of bitcoin asap. But I don't think it is time now, or that this time would ever come. What I think would happen, is the price will (after several more rally/crash cycles) arrive at a more or less steady state with slow natural growth against inflating fiat. But until that point, there is only one direction, and it is up. If it's broken, something went wrong and you should get out. For me, it's that simple.

[bolded for emphasis]

spoken like a true trader.

but oh, there will be a day when the growth stops and everyone who wants a bitcoin has one. and then the speculators will leave. they will exit the market in troves and the ones who stay will short and we will enter the first real bear market bitcoin will have ever seen, The Great Correction to its heretofore undisturbed infinite bullrun... but that likely won't happen yet for quite some time.

hint: the paradigm isn't "everybody gets rich". you speak like if you can't get returns on your bitcoin investment it's 'broken'.

--arepo

[EuroTrash]

You should really travel a a bit to see how other people live and why those immigrants come and do all the crap jobs. In Poland, Ukraine, Bulgaria and many other typical monthly wage is below $500. I used to work 12 hours a day for $2/h (!) and I have a master's degree, speak 3 languages and can do anything from repairing your car to setting up a LAN network. I know people who have PhD in science and work for $600/month. Before you start complaining about your hard and exhausting $20/h job come and visit us third worlders  

Brilliantly said. Let me add that this is how the skilled immigrants who speak three languages and have masters degrees take the jobs from that lazy percent of natives who are too used to comfort and decide to stay ignorant instead.

Guess which one of the two categories above does actually contribute more to a nation's wealth?

Hint: most xenophobes in UK are unemployed white trash natives whose dole is partly financed with immigrants' income taxes.