Early 2014...

[T.Stuart]

This is my early 2014 price prediction and general ramble.

If you are a professional analyst you may think my ideas unbelievably crude. But I'm going out on a limb here and trying to apply some common sense to what I believe is the current situation.

Someone posted a link to a pretty chart and some analysis in another thread a couple of days ago:   https://www.tradingview.com/v/q1ojBSvs/

Here is the chart for you.



According to the guy - a certain “Hellork” - who made the chart (2 days ago) there is a 1:100 chance that Bitcoin will blast through the “moon” (different meaning from what most of you are thinking   ) with the question mark to move upwards towards point f and who knows where else.

But we have already reached the upper part of his moon and I believe that if we hold and consolidate at current prices over the weekend the chances of this happening are much, much greater.

Here is a screenshot of Gox on Bitcoinwisdom today.



The line in red shows what will happen if we head to point up to f as proposed by Hellork.

However I believe that the curve might become more shallow next week before picking up again (green).

As the curve becomes shallower many here will say “low volume” and tell you that people will sell and the price will go down. But I get the strong impression that for all the TA and expertise, these people are are not considering the market psychology of Bitcoin carefully enough and the tipping point scenario we now find ourselves in.

The Bitcoin world did not start with a population of TA experts and forex traders. It did not begin with Wall Street. When these people analyse many of the traditional markets they are analysing markets which have been conditioned by themselves. Also sometimes markets to which Joe Public essentially does not have access.

Bitcoin is different significantly from what they know because the demographic make-up of the early world was and still is not not the same as the worlds these traders know and understand. I am sure that there are similarities and of course traders exploit and make money from them, but there are also variables that are difficult for traders to get accustomed to, such as blockages and catching up at exchanges, the effect of the media. virality, etc.

I believe that right now, from this very moment in time in January 2014 onwards, we are going to see some interesting things happen.

Adoption

This is going to skew the analysis of “bubbles”. Some are speaking of an S-curve. I think it is certainly possible but how would Bitcoin's volatility affect it? Probably not that much in my opinion.

Hodling

What began as a drunk rant and then turned into a meme is in fact an attitude that is very prevalent among Bitcoiners at the moment. I think TA analysts tend to underestimate it. As you can see on my chart, in my opinion for growth to continue steadily and while waiting for the exchanges to process new accounts, transfers, deposits and generally grow and catch up with the increasing interest in Bitcoin, Hodlers may be tested in the next couple of weeks.

But Hodling would appear to be a wise philosophy at the moment. As many have pointed out, the time between bubbles has been getting shorter as the bubbles have been growing. I think this is another sign that an S-curve style growth may be just around the corner.

Conclusion

It might be a good time for many day traders to concede that they are having more trouble hitting their nails on the heads these days, and to give the philosophy (and if Bitcoin succeeds I think it deserves to go down in history as a philosophy) of buying and “Hodling”* a go.

*To be clear, I believe that in 2014 Hodling should be understood as having an extra, “altruistic” (for the market) level which includes spending Bitcoins on goods if possible, as and when levels of adoption by merchants makes this easier.

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[BittBurger]

But Hodling would appear to be a wise philosophy at the moment.

Holding is always the wise philosophy.

Everyone I've seen who tries to play the market, loses in the end.  At the very least, gains minimal amounts, and enjoys endless days of stress.

Holding = guaranteed success.  Period.   Bitcoin isn't going anywhere but up.

[gentlemand]

There's most definitely a pile of cash to be made day trading. I fully respect anyone who can do it well. I can't and never will.

I noted what my moves would've been had I been day trading. I made the right call 20% of the time and those were on absolute no brainers like the Chinese news.

[Ibian]

This analysis makes more sense than most of the "pro" ones. Good to see some common sense for a change.

[Wilhelm]

Holding = guaranteed success.  Period.   Bitcoin isn't going anywhere but up.

Guaranteed? LOL.

You are being as silly as the "single digits in 2014" crowd.

Yes if you believe in bitcoin hodling is a guaranteed success. It has been since bitcoin was created and as long as more services are being built we're safe hodling.
If bitcoin goes down the shitter day traders will also have problems getting their fiat out of the exchanges like MtGox so not-hodling is equally risky maybe even more risky.

As stated by bittburger people who play the market eventually lose because they end up with worthless fiat or alt-coins when bitcoin skyrockets.
Only the few fortunate advanced traders will make a good buck daytrading but most people lose their shirt.
Bitcoins normal fluctuations can be up to 10-20% of it's value and as far as I know no exchanges do stop-loss or limit orders so limiting risk is near impossible and in my opinion there is no way a normal trader can do any good money management unless they have a shitload of money already.

My motivation:
When bitcoin skyrockets it goes so fast you might aswell board the train when it's stuck in the station instead of trying to boarding in the last second and missing it.

[smoothie]

Many people in late 2011 did not consider the holding strategy wise in the short term. Many of them sold out at sub $10 prices.

My strategy is hold Bitcoin but take some money off the table from time to time and invest in other investments as insurance.

Or buy litecoin is another option

[MAbtc]

Holding = guaranteed success.  Period.   Bitcoin isn't going anywhere but up.

Guaranteed? LOL.

You are being as silly as the "single digits in 2014" crowd.

Yes if you believe in bitcoin hodling is a guaranteed success.

Bolded for emphasis.

[smoothie]

A, B, C, D, F, E??? Lol

[Wilhelm]

Holding = guaranteed success.  Period.   Bitcoin isn't going anywhere but up.

Guaranteed? LOL.

You are being as silly as the "single digits in 2014" crowd.

Yes if you believe in bitcoin hodling is a guaranteed success.

Bolded for emphasis.

It's always nice to leave out the rest .

I'll take back the word "guaranteed" since nothing is guaranteed. But I wanted to help bittburger make his point that hodling has had more riskless reward in the past and I personally believe that it will remain so for atleast 2 years.

Anyhow looking at the past:
People who have hodled since the creation of bitcoin have had an unbelievable profit.
People who have traded since the creation of bitcoin have risked losing a lot of money.

If you believe in bitcoin, hodling is a sound strategy

[T.Stuart]

... in fact very little is guaranteed in life (death maybe).
If you want to have a reasonable discussion about the future, great! When you start using words like "guaranteed", reason has gone out the window.

I concur that death is guaranteed. We don't need to discuss that one!  

[Wilhelm]

... in fact very little is guaranteed in life (death maybe).
If you want to have a reasonable discussion about the future, great! When you start using words like "guaranteed", reason has gone out the window.

I concur that death is guaranteed. We don't need to discuss that one!  

I believe that if you enter a black hole your last second will never end making death no guarantee either

[T.Stuart]

... in fact very little is guaranteed in life (death maybe).
If you want to have a reasonable discussion about the future, great! When you start using words like "guaranteed", reason has gone out the window.

I concur that death is guaranteed. We don't need to discuss that one!  

I believe that if you enter a black hole your last second will never end making death no guarantee either

A most inconvenient and uncomfortable route to immortality I fear! 

[BitchicksHusband]

... in fact very little is guaranteed in life (death maybe).
If you want to have a reasonable discussion about the future, great! When you start using words like "guaranteed", reason has gone out the window.

I concur that death is guaranteed. We don't need to discuss that one!  

I believe that if you enter a black hole your last second will never end making death no guarantee either

And what about Enoch?  And Elijah?

[Wilhelm]

... in fact very little is guaranteed in life (death maybe).
If you want to have a reasonable discussion about the future, great! When you start using words like "guaranteed", reason has gone out the window.

I concur that death is guaranteed. We don't need to discuss that one!  

I believe that if you enter a black hole your last second will never end making death no guarantee either

And what about Enoch?  And Elijah?

I'm no christian but if you do believe then this is proof too

[Dafar]

My plan is to hold 100 LTC and 21 BTC and see where it goes. I'm really hoping for another S-curve styl growth. Already there with LTC but still working on BTC. Day trading with 2BTC in hopes to acquire more BTC. I don't find it stressful at all, i love gambling and this feels like gambling.

But don't kid yourself saying this is 'guaranteed', it's unlikely bitcoin will fail and crash but it can still happen. If it does I'm sort of fucked... but at the end of the day it's just money

[arepo]

This analysis makes more sense than most of the "pro" ones. Good to see some common sense for a change.

perhaps, but it leads to no strong conclusions, just a general sense of what one person believes about market sentiment at the moment. how would one trade using this analysis? what strategies does it suggest are successful? how likely is it that these strategies will actually be successful?

can the OP answer any of these questions?

--arepo

[Wilhelm]

This analysis makes more sense than most of the "pro" ones. Good to see some common sense for a change.

perhaps, but it leads to no strong conclusions, just a general sense of what one person believes about market sentiment at the moment. how would one trade using this analysis? what strategies does it suggest are successful? how likely is it that these strategies will actually be successful?

can the OP answer any of these questions?

--arepo

He doens't claim to be a pro but there is some advice in there.

He advises to HODL since the market is in an upward trend.
He says that Hellork is more optimistic and thus his positive trend is not only his view.

Still poor analysis but HODL has been a sound strategy.

[arepo]

This analysis makes more sense than most of the "pro" ones. Good to see some common sense for a change.

perhaps, but it leads to no strong conclusions, just a general sense of what one person believes about market sentiment at the moment. how would one trade using this analysis? what strategies does it suggest are successful? how likely is it that these strategies will actually be successful?

can the OP answer any of these questions?

--arepo

He doens't claim to be a pro but there is some advice in there.

He advises to HODL since the market is in an upward trend.
He says that Hellork is more optimistic and thus his positive trend is not only his view.

Still poor analysis but HODL has been a sound strategy.

i'm not saying it's poor analysis i just pointed out that there are no strong conclusions, so it may have little "value".

it does advance a decent argument based on a number of interesting assumptions, many of which are in contention, and is an excellent OP for general discussion. i was simply commenting on its classification as "analysis".

[kkaspar]

Charts and trend speculation only work at markets, where the market controlling minority isn't effectively organized in a common goal of mutual profit. When the market controlling minority consists of a group small enough, that there can be cooperation, then the common goal will be to enlarge profit at the expense of the submissive majority.
In another words, masses are dumb and can be predicted. Small groups are smart and hard to predict. So, I think that trend speculation isn't as useful with the bitcoin market.

[arepo]

Charts and trend speculation only work at markets, where the market controlling minority isn't effectively organized in a common goal of mutual profit. When the market controlling minority consists of a group small enough, that there can be cooperation, then the common goal will be to enlarge profit at the expense of the submissive majority.
In another words, masses are dumb and can be predicted. Small groups are smart and hard to predict. So, I think that trend speculation isn't as useful with the bitcoin market.

ah yes trends are awful at predicting bitcoin price. oh wait