This is my early 2014 price prediction and general ramble.
If you are a professional analyst you may think my ideas unbelievably crude. But I'm going out on a limb here and trying to apply some common sense to what I believe is the current situation.
Someone posted a link to a pretty chart and some analysis in another thread a couple of days ago:
https://www.tradingview.com/v/q1ojBSvs/ Here is the chart for you.
![](https://ip.bitcointalk.org/?u=http%3A%2F%2Fi40.tinypic.com%2F16ao65g.jpg&t=665&c=lempsq__y2Q6dQ)
According to the guy - a certain “Hellork” - who made the chart (2 days ago) there is a 1:100 chance that Bitcoin will blast through the “moon” (different meaning from what most of you are thinking
![Grin](https://bitcointalk.org/Smileys/default/grin.gif)
) with the question mark to move upwards towards point f and who knows where else.
But we have already reached the upper part of his moon and I believe that if we hold and consolidate at current prices over the weekend the chances of this happening are much, much greater.
Here is a screenshot of Gox on Bitcoinwisdom today.
![](https://ip.bitcointalk.org/?u=http%3A%2F%2Fi44.tinypic.com%2Frvvtj5.jpg&t=665&c=215A6YOInlwVIA)
The line in red shows what will happen if we head to point up to f as proposed by Hellork.
However I believe that the curve might become more shallow next week before picking up again (green).
As the curve becomes shallower many here will say “low volume” and tell you that people will sell and the price will go down. But I get the strong impression that for all the TA and expertise, these people are are not considering the market psychology of Bitcoin carefully enough and the tipping point scenario we now find ourselves in.
The Bitcoin world did not start with a population of TA experts and forex traders. It did not begin with Wall Street. When these people analyse many of the traditional markets they are analysing markets which have been conditioned by themselves. Also sometimes markets to which Joe Public essentially does not have access.
Bitcoin is different significantly from what they know because the demographic make-up of the early world was and still is not not the same as the worlds these traders know and understand. I am sure that there are similarities and of course traders exploit and make money from them, but there are also variables that are difficult for traders to get accustomed to, such as blockages and catching up at exchanges, the effect of the media. virality, etc.
I believe that right now, from this very moment in time in January 2014 onwards, we are going to see some interesting things happen.
AdoptionThis is going to skew the analysis of “bubbles”. Some are speaking of an S-curve. I think it is certainly possible but how would Bitcoin's volatility affect it? Probably not that much in my opinion.
HodlingWhat began as a drunk rant and then turned into a meme is in fact an attitude that is very prevalent among Bitcoiners at the moment. I think TA analysts tend to underestimate it. As you can see on my chart, in my opinion for growth to continue steadily and while waiting for the exchanges to process new accounts, transfers, deposits and generally grow and catch up with the increasing interest in Bitcoin, Hodlers may be tested in the next couple of weeks.
But Hodling would appear to be a wise philosophy at the moment. As many have pointed out, the time between bubbles has been getting shorter as the bubbles have been growing. I think this is another sign that an S-curve style growth may be just around the corner.
ConclusionIt might be a good time for many day traders to concede that they are having more trouble hitting their nails on the heads these days, and to give the philosophy (and if Bitcoin succeeds I think it deserves to go down in history as a philosophy) of buying and “Hodling”* a go.
*To be clear, I believe that in 2014 Hodling should be understood as having an extra, “altruistic” (for the market) level which includes spending Bitcoins on goods if possible, as and when levels of adoption by merchants makes this easier.